Diplomatic Strategy Research Articles

India’s emerging undersea cable landscape: Varied Indo-Pacific partnerships to boost geopolitical ambitions?

India is set to be a cradle for undersea cable networks thanks to its geographical location, fast-growing economy, its potential to play a bigger role in global manufacturing, and its young, technologically skilled workforce. But amongst the tech giants such as the US and its allies, does India have the capabilities and the political intent to thwart China’s technological, and military disruption attempts in the Indo-Pacific? This article argues for enhanced maritime cooperation between like-minded states to improve interoperability between states and create a viable maritime security architecture that includes subsea cable security. It suggests that India can tamp down China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by asserting Indian digital ascendance and by making full use of its multi-aligned “pointed” diplomacy with like-minded partners. To substantiate this approach, this article first defines the contours of India’s “pointed” diplomatic strategy and then discusses why India is crucial for the growing undersea cable network security in the IOR. Outlining India’s nascent attempts to create a relevant domestic regulatory framework on undersea cables, it explores India’s pointed diplomacy via its engagements with select partnerships, such as with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) members and IOR littorals, among others.

Enhancing Maritime Security: Challenges and Strategies in Indonesia's Natuna Sea

The Natuna Sea, a strategic region within Indonesia's exclusive economic zone, faces multifaceted maritime security challenges that threaten national sovereignty, economic interests, and regional stability. This abstract explores the key issues and strategic responses to enhance maritime security in this vital area. Indonesia's maritime security challenges in the Natuna Sea are driven by illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, territorial disputes, and transnational crimes such as smuggling and human trafficking. The encroachment of foreign fishing vessels, particularly from neighboring countries, exacerbates the IUU fishing problem, undermining local economies and depleting fish stocks. Additionally, overlapping territorial claims, particularly with China, complicate Indonesia's efforts to assert its sovereignty and maintain peace in the region. To address these challenges, Indonesia has developed a comprehensive maritime security strategy that includes diplomatic, legal, and operational measures. Diplomatic efforts focus on strengthening regional cooperation through ASEAN and other multilateral forums to foster dialogue and build consensus on maritime security issues. Legal measures involve the enforcement of national and international laws, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to uphold Indonesia's territorial rights and combat IUU fishing. Operationally, Indonesia has enhanced its maritime patrols, surveillance capabilities, and naval presence in the Natuna Sea. The establishment of the Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) and the deployment of advanced technology, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and satellite monitoring, have improved the detection and interdiction of illegal activities. Despite these efforts, challenges persist due to resource constraints, coordination issues among agencies, and the complex geopolitical landscape. This abstract underscores the importance of a holistic and adaptive approach to maritime security, integrating diplomatic, legal, and operational strategies.

Three Interpretation Paths on Understanding Political Relations between Southeast Asian Kingdoms and China from the Mandala System’s Perspective

In the late 1960s, some scholars started using the constituent elements of the mandala system, the traditional interstate relations model in Southeast Asia, to explore the official relationship between China and Southeast Asian Kingdoms and gradually formed three interpretation paths. The first is to use the mandala in the geopolitical sense to locate bilateral political relations. The second is about how the political culture with the universal monarch as the core enables Southeast Asia monarchs to join the tribute system. The third focuses on the different understanding of tribute in Southeast Asian countries. They supplement or revise the traditional view that the tributary relationship between ancient China and Southeast Asian Kingdoms was political. However, these three interpretation paths have their limitations. The review shows that scholars ignore the universal kingship of Southeast Asian Kingdoms’ discourse system to China. The unilateral policy design and understanding could not convincingly interpret the unique political relationship formed by bilateral interaction. Therefore, the universal kingship claimed by the Chinese emperors and Southeast Asian Kingdoms monarchs must be examined. It should study how the centers of the mandala system smoothly transited between claiming universal kingship and pursuing equality in real politics. It also explores what diplomatic strategies could maintain the subjectivity of the monarchs of Chinese dynasties and Southeast Asian Kingdoms.

Joining NATO: a national end or a strategic means for Georgia?

Georgia’s pursuit of NATO membership faces significant challenges due to Russia’s strong opposition, placing the country at a critical geopolitical crossroads. This article examines whether NATO membership is a national end or a strategic means for enhancing Georgia’s security. It explores the historical context, strategic dilemmas, and complexities of Georgia’s situation, highlighting the impact of Russia’s opposition, particularly in light of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The article argues that NATO membership should be a means to enhance security rather than a precursor to armed conflict. It recommends that Georgia adopt a strategy of strategic patience and diplomacy, recognizing that Euro-Atlantic integration is a long-term endeavour; prioritize dialogue with both NATO and Russia; pursue regional cooperation; and explore alternative pathways to security as well. Ultimately, the article calls for a comprehensive approach to national security that aligns with Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations while addressing immediate security challenges

Public Sentiment Analysis of the Israel-Palestine Conflict on Social Media Using BERT

General background Israel-Palestine conflict has drawn significant global attention, particularly in how it is perceived and discussed on social media platforms. Specific background understanding public sentiment surrounding such geopolitical issues is crucial for media monitoring, diplomatic efforts, and reputation management. Knowledge gap previous sentiment analysis studies often lack the ability to accurately handle multilingual and context-rich datasets, especially in analyzing neutral sentiments, which are commonly overlooked. This study aims to apply the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model to analyze public sentiment towards the Israel-Palestine conflict on the X platform, focusing on Indonesian users. Results Using BERT, the model achieved 93% accuracy, with a precision of 0.95, recall of 0.93, and F1-score of 0.94. The model performed well in predicting positive and negative sentiments but showed room for improvement in handling neutral sentiment. Novelty this study introduces the implementation of the BERT Transformer model for the multilingual and context-sensitive sentiment analysis of tweets, specifically addressing a high-stakes geopolitical conflict. Implications the findings demonstrate the potential for using advanced natural language processing techniques like BERT for monitoring public opinion, brand management, and detecting societal tensions on social media, offering valuable insights for stakeholders involved in conflict resolution and diplomatic strategies. Highlights: Achieved 93% accuracy in sentiment analysis using BERT on X platform. Identified strengths in predicting positive/negative sentiments, with challenges in neutral sentiment. Demonstrated BERT’s effectiveness in handling complex geopolitical social media data. Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, BERT Transformer, Israel-Palestine Conflict, Social Media, NLP

The Terrorist Networks and Their Posing Threats: The Case of the Horn of Africa

This study examines the evolution and impact of terrorist networks in the Horn of Africa, primarily focusing on Somalia and the surrounding region. Following the 9/11 attacks, the Horn of Africa emerged as a critical front in global counter-terrorism efforts due to the presence of groups like al-Shabaab and ISIS. This paper explores these groups’ organizational structures, strategies, and operations, highlighting their adaptability, resilience, and the sociopolitical dynamics that have enabled them to thrive. It delves into the persistent challenges faced by Somalia, including political fragmentation, economic deprivation, and the complex interplay of local and international actors, such as the United States and Türkiye. The study emphasizes the need for a multifaceted approach to counter-terrorism that integrates military, political, and diplomatic strategies, addressing the immediate security threats and the underlying causes of extremism. By analyzing current counter-terrorism efforts and their limitations, this paper offers strategic recommendations to achieve long-term stability in the region.

Türkiye’s Vision for Africa: Humanitarian Diplomacy and Development Cooperation

This article aims to analyze Türkiye’s humanitarian diplomacy and development cooperation strategies toward Africa within a theoretical and conceptual framework, assessing their impact and significance on the continent. The research problem addresses how Türkiye’s unique approach, which integrates historical ties, cultural interactions, and development efforts, distinguishes it from other global and regional actors. The arguments presented highlight that Türkiye’s humanitarian diplomacy strategy, based on mutual benefit and sustainable development goals, has effectively enhanced its positive image and influence in Africa. The hypothesis posits that Türkiye’s humanitarian diplomacy and development cooperation efforts have strengthened its position as a humanitarian actor on the continent and contributed to achieving sustainable development goals. The findings suggest that the country’s activities in healthcare, education, agriculture, and socio-cultural fields have created significant impacts, improving local communities’ living conditions and fostering sustainable development. Furthermore, Türkiye’s distinct approach, unlike traditional Western policies, is characterized by an emphasis on mutual interdependence and cooperation, positioning it as a reliable partner in Africa.

Arctic cooperation with Russia: at what price?

Abstract After February 2022, it seemed that a breakdown of political, economic and scientific cooperation in the Arctic would be one of the many examples of collateral damage from Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine. Two years on from the invasion, however, the Arctic 7 (the United States, Canada and the Nordic countries) have renewed their engagement with Russia on polar issues. The Arctic Council has emerged as the exceptional case of a regional body in which Russia and NATO nations continue to collaborate, albeit at a more limited level through the working groups. This article examines the dilemmas facing the Arctic 7 as they seek to balance a values-based policy and strong stance against Russia in solidarity with Ukraine, with a desire to ensure the continuing survival of the Arctic Council and its primacy in regional governance. We argue that Russia has sought to weaponize the Council—withholding vital climate data and threatening to bring China further into regional politics—as part of a wider strategy of coercive diplomacy and hybrid threats in the Arctic. The Arctic 7 should recognize that they ultimately stand to lose more from giving into Russian tactics than from freezing Moscow out of the Arctic Council while the war in Ukraine continues.

Multitasking and Network-building: China’s Party Diplomacy in Latin America

This paper examines China’s Party diplomacy and its practice in Latin America. As part of China’s overall diplomatic strategy, the CPC’s diplomacy in the region aims to fulfill multiple tasks. Using publicly available documentation, this paper creates a dataset covering exchanges between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and Latin America to analyze the CPC’s network-building in the region since 2013. The results show that to achieve China’s strategic goals, the CPC’s contacts in Latin America are characterized by diversification and openness. Daily interactions and knowledge exchanges are the main content of the CPC’s interactions with its contacts. Additionally, global, regional, and bilateral exchange mechanisms, especially the cooperation mechanism between the CPC and Latin American leftists, have been established. Although the party-based approach to Sino-Latin American relations faces challenges from political volatility, ideological differences, regional fragmentation, and external intervention, China’s party diplomacy in the region still has great opportunities for development. Inter-party exchanges not only help us understand the development of Sino-Latin American relations but also provide an important perspective for studying cooperation among Third World countries.

Ethiopia and BRICS: Prospects and Challenges

This study examines Ethiopia's relationship with the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), exploring both the opportunities and challenges this affiliation presents. As emerging economies gain global influence, Ethiopia's inclusion in BRICS represents a significant chance to leverage economic, political, and technological strengths. The research highlights the potential benefits for Ethiopia, including enhanced trade, investment, and technology transfer, which could drive the country's economic growth and development. However, Ethiopia also faces substantial challenges, such as infrastructure deficiencies, skill gaps, and regulatory barriers that may hinder its ability to fully align with BRICS frameworks. The study underscores Ethiopia's strategic motivations for engaging with BRICS, including accessing new markets and fostering innovation. It also addresses the risks of economic dependency and the need for a balanced diplomatic strategy with traditional Western partners. Through a mixed-method approach, the research combines quantitative and qualitative analyses to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ethiopia's position within BRICS. The study emphasizes the geopolitical significance of BRICS in reshaping global power dynamics and Ethiopia's potential role in this transformation. The study offers strategic recommendations to enhance Ethiopia's engagement with BRICS, aimed at a mutually beneficial partnership aligned with Ethiopia's development goals and regional influence. This contribution is crucial for policymakers and researchers interested in South-South cooperation and its impact on Africa's fastest-growing economies.

The Bee Fertilizes the Flower She Robs: Analysing the Diplomatic Games of Carrot, Soft Power and National Interests for Access to Natural Resources in Papua New Guinea

Purpose: This paper conducts a nuanced exploration of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) intricate diplomatic landscape through the metaphor "The Bee Fertilizes the Flower She Robs." This conceptual framework elucidates the complex interplay between soft power, national interests, and resource access among global powers - namely Australia, China, and the United States - in the strategically significant Asia-Pacific region. By situating PNG within this geopolitical contest, this study aims to deepen understanding of how these states navigate power dynamics, particularly regarding PNG's abundant natural resources. Materials and Method: Employing a qualitative methodological approach, this research employs case analysis as its primary investigative tool. Selected case studies critically examine the diplomatic strategies executed by Australia, China, and the United States in PNG, focusing on soft power mechanisms such as cultural diplomacy, development assistance, and foreign direct investment. The analysis is grounded in a comprehensive review of primary and secondary sources, including diplomatic documents and investment reports, to capture the multifaceted nature of international relations in PNG. Findings: The findings reveal a paradox: while foreign investment catalyses economic development in PNG, it simultaneously engenders dependencies that can jeopardize sovereignty. The divergent strategies of Australia, China, and the United States manifest as a blend of cooperation and competition, accompanied by significant ethical considerations regarding environmental sustainability and community displacement. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: This study advances the discourse surrounding soft power, urging a re-evaluation of its role as both an instrument of influence and a potential source of dependency. Policymakers in PNG are encouraged to establish regulatory frameworks that ensure transparency, prioritize local agency, and promote sustainability, thereby navigating complex international engagements while safeguarding their sovereign interests.

Islamic diplomacy of Azerbaijan in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 war: the role of the organization of Islamic Cooperation

ABSTRACT Since achieving independence, Azerbaijan has employed its Islamic identity in its foreign policy to develop an international Islamic agenda concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict. It has promoted the notion of Islamic solidarity and diversified its strategic interests in the conflict. The study aims to analyse Azerbaijan’s diplomatic strategies to garner comprehensive support from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, focusing on the 2020 war. The paper argues that Azerbaijan has developed Islamic diplomacy and instrumentalized religion as one of the components of its foreign policy against Armenia and the de facto Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. During the 2020 war, Azerbaijan applied the discourse of Islamic solidarity and the Azerbaijani narratives on the NK conflict that have been introduced in the OIC during the last three decades.

Strategic Enhancement and Differential Governance: China’s Partnership Diplomacy in Latin America

This paper studies China’s partnership diplomacy and its practice in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). China has constructed an all-round, multi-level, and three-dimensional partnership network in LAC through three stages: strategic exploration, development, and improvement. China has implemented differential governance towards its partners, which enables active shaping and dynamic management of the partnership network. This paper categorizes the 15 partner countries into three types: pivot countries, link countries, and node countries based on their political friendliness with China, geopolitical influence, and potential for economic and trade cooperation. China’s partnerships in LAC are vital support for implementing its diplomatic strategy in the region. However, challenges to this strategy’s development include insufficient mutual support from other diplomatic means, doubts and misinterpretations of the China-Latin America partnership by some Latin American countries, and the political and identity shifts within these countries. To enhance the role of partnerships in maintaining state relations and promoting the implementation of diplomatic strategies, China has introduced new content to its partnership diplomacy in LAC.

Goodbye, Wolf Warrior: charting China's transition to a more accommodating diplomacy

Abstract China has abolished its previous wolf-warrior diplomacy and is increasingly adopting a softer diplomatic tone, primarily driven by internal economic challenges such as a slowing economy and the need for global economic stability to sustain its growth and development. In response to international pressures and the desire to avoid further isolation, China is adjusting its foreign policy to be more in line with global norms and expectations, which may improve its relations with western democracies. The shift in China's diplomacy reflects a broader strategy to recalibrate its global influence by presenting itself as a more responsible and cooperative international player, which is essential for maintaining its long-term geopolitical ambitions. Western democracies should: Avoid seeing China solely as an adversary. Instead, they should engage constructively, leveraging this diplomatic shift to build trust and foster cooperation on global challenges. Promote policies that encourage reciprocal openness and collaboration, ensuring that China's diplomatic softening goes beyond rhetoric and leads to tangible improvements in international relations. Continuously monitor China's evolving diplomatic strategies to adjust and optimize foreign policy approaches, balancing collaboration opportunities with cautionary measures against potential risks.

Digital Diplomacy and Its Impacts on Uzbekistan’s International Relations

This paper investigates the role of digital technologies in Uzbekistan’s diplomatic activities, emphasizing innovation strategies, project support, personnel training, and the development of digital platforms. It explores the concept of digital diplomacy, focusing on the use of digital media in diplomacy and how countries utilize these media to achieve their foreign policy objectives. The study delves into the opportunities and challenges presented by digital media for diplomatic activities, highlighting the necessity for countries to actively engage in digital diplomacy and keep abreast of emerging trends in this field. The article emphasizes the importance of digital diplomacy not only as a new tool but also as a factor that transforms general diplomatic strategies. By examining Uzbekistan’s efforts in integrating digital technologies into its diplomatic strategies, this research aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of how digitalization is shaping contemporary diplomacy. It underscores the importance of technological advancement and digital literacy for diplomatic personnel to navigate the complex landscape of global information integration. Through a comprehensive analysis, the paper presents evidence supporting the active implementation of digital diplomacy by nations and discusses the implications for future diplomatic practices. The findings reveal that digital diplomacy not only enhances the efficiency and reach of diplomatic efforts but also poses certain challenges that need to be addressed to maximize its potential. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into the dynamic intersection of digital innovation and diplomatic strategy in the context of Uzbekistan’s international relations.

Analysis of Dispute Settlement Dynamics Analysis of behaviors in the import tariffdispute between the United States and China

The ongoing dispute over import tariffs between the United States and China has emergedas a significant concern within the global economy since 2018. Chinese retaliation, triggeredby the United States’ imposition of import taxes on Chinese imports as a response to unfairtrade practices including intellectual property theft and detrimental subsidies, furtherintensified global trade tensions. Both nations ultimately sought resolution of the importtariff dispute by appealing to the World Trade Organisation (W.T.O.). This study employs adescriptive qualitative approach, combining International Relations theory and caseanalysis to interpret the diplomatic strategy and conduct in settling this trade conflict.Analysis was conducted on data obtained from papers, official websites, and books toinvestigate the resolution of disputes through the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and theeconomic consequences of trade retaliation. The findings underscore the intricacy ofinternational economic relations, and the conduct exhibited by participants in managingconflicts. This study highlights the crucial significance of international organizations inpreserving trade stability and offers valuable understanding of the mechanisms involved inresolving disputes related to intricate import tariff conflicts.

Xi Jinping’s Global Civilization Initiative

Abstract This article examines Xi Jinping’s Global Civilization Initiative, introduced in 2023 as part of China’s broader foreign policy vision. It analyzes the key principles and components of the initiative, including its emphasis on mutual respect between civilizations, cultural exchange, common development, and multilateralism. The article contextualizes the initiative within China’s approach to global governance and modernization, comparing it to previous frameworks like the “clash of civilizations” thesis. It explores the potential implications of the Global Civilization Initiative for China’s role on the world stage and its relations with other nations. The article argues that this initiative represents a significant development in China’s diplomatic strategy, reflecting its growing global influence and desire to promote an alternative vision of world order based on Chinese values and modernization.

BEYOND RHETORIC: CHINA'S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY IN KENYA THROUGH A POLITICAL-ECONOMIC LENS (2013-2020)

This article explores the evolution of China-Kenya relations within the context of China's broader public diplomacy strategy, focusing particularly on the period from 2013 to 2020. The foundation for these bilateral relations was laid as China opened up to developing countries and African nations gained independence. While formal diplomatic relations between China and Kenya were established in 1963, it was during the 2000s that these relations diversified significantly under the leadership of Chinese President Hu Jintao and Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki. This diversification spanned commercial, cultural, and political domains, becoming a notable example of public diplomacy. With the ascension of Chinese President Xi Jinping, China's public diplomacy experienced a strategic shift towards a more assertive and politically oriented approach. This study argues that under Xi Jinping, new initiatives and strategic plans were introduced, enhancing the existing framework of China's public diplomacy. A key element of this transformation was the increased emphasis on foreign aid, which gained momentum through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Between 2013 and 2020, China's foreign aid to Kenya played a pivotal role in reshaping the structure of Chinese public diplomacy. This period saw a continuation and expansion of activities in culture and media, established in earlier phases, alongside a growing focus on infrastructure development, humanitarian aid, healthcare assistance, and educational and cultural projects. The study begins by examining traditional public diplomacy tools such as cultural exchanges, high-level visits, and educational initiatives. It then discusses specific projects implemented between 2013 and 2020, analyzing their contributions to public diplomacy efforts. Finally, the article provides an overview of these projects, as documented in AidData, highlighting their impact on the bilateral relations between China and Kenya.

Changes in Crisis Diplomacy in the 21st Century

This article explores the transformation of crisis diplomacy in the 21st century and reflects on the evolution of crisis diplomacy from primarily focusing on national and international conflicts to encompassing broader global crises such as climate change, public health, and technological interference. The discussion revolves around three main themes: the increasingly complex global crisis that transcends borders, the increasing influence of non-governmental actors in shaping diplomatic participation, and the impact of the rapid development of information technology on diplomatic practice. The paper emphasizes how traditional diplomatic methods can be adjusted to address the interdependence and multifaceted nature of modern crises, which require international cooperation efforts and innovative diplomatic strategies. Analyze and draw on historical examples, compare past diplomatic methods with contemporary approaches that integrate non-state actors and digital platforms, and emphasize the need to expand diplomatic scope in today's interdependent global environment.

The Theories of war in practice: possible outcomes and means for the termination of war. Case study: Russian war against Ukraine

Purpose: is to anticipate the termination of the Russia-Ukraine war considering the underlying causes on the basis of main war termination theories. Method: comparative analysis, and synthesis. Findings: The length of a war is typically unpredictable due to the intricate interplay of elements that affect its duration. Initial assessments often underestimate the enemy's capabilities, resolve, and adaptability. Understanding these factors can help in devising strategies to prevent or shorten wars. In historical records, the majority of military operations, campaigns, and wars have exceeded their anticipated duration. What causes the wars to linger longer than anticipated? What variables or elements, in general, affect the duration of wars? These are some of the most frequently considered questions by the researchers. In this regard wars need to be categorized based on their features in order to make sense of how long they should last. The scale and ferocity of wars differ. Some wars lasted only a few days, while others lasted for years or even decades. Some wars were fought between two nations, while others involved multiple nations, some others had a worldwide scope. Limited engagements occurred in some wars, while others left massive amounts of destruction in their wake. While many nations rally their entire population for war, some do not believe it is necessary. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the article illustrates the main points of war theories concerning the origins and end of a conflict, supports the connection between them, and emphasizes the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war. The authors try to anticipate the termination of this war based on various factors. Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of key concepts of theories of war provide a framework to understand the various dynamics and outcomes of conflicts, including how they begin, unfold, and eventually end. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary case study to explore these theories in practice. The paper provides new insights for understanding the variables and elements that influence the duration of the war and offer various lenses to comprehend and address the war, suggesting a multifaceted approach that includes military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies. Practical implications: Examining the practical implications of the theories of war in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war involves understanding how these theories translate into real-world strategies and actions that can lead to the termination of the war. The paper highlights that military, diplomatic, economic, and socio-cultural strategies must be integrated to address the complex dynamics of the conflict and pave the way for a sustainable peace. Value: The study offers significant value in understanding, predicting, and potentially resolving wars in the example of Russia-Ukraine war and provides multiple lenses through which to analyze the war, devise strategies, and anticipate outcomes.