PurposeThe region of growth (ROG) of geographic atrophy (GA) throughout the macular area has an impact on visual outcomes. Here, we developed multiple deep learning (DL) models to predict the 1-year ROG of GA lesions using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images. DesignIn this retrospective analysis, 3 types of models were developed using FAF images collected 6 months after baseline to predict the GA lesion area (segmented lesion mask) at 1.5 years, FAF images collected at baseline and 6 months to predict the GA lesion at 1.5 years, and FAF images collected 6 months after baseline to predict the GA lesion at 1 and 1.5 years. The 1-year ROG from the 6-month visit was derived by taking the difference between the GA lesion area (segmented lesion mask) at the 1.5-year and 6-month visits. ParticipantsPatients enrolled in the following lampalizumab clinical trials and prospective observational studies: NCT02247479, NCT02247531, NCT02479386, and NCT02399072. MethodsDatasets of study eyes from 597 patients were split into model training (310), validation (78), and test sets (209), stratified by baseline or initial lesion area, lesion growth rate, foveal involvement, and focality. DL experiments were performed using the 2-dimensional U-Net, whole-lesion and multiclass models were developed. Main Outcome MeasuresThe performance of the models was evaluated by calculating the Dice score, coefficient of determination (R2), and the squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r2) between the true and derived GA lesion 1-year ROG. ResultsThe model using baseline and 6-month FAF images to predict GA lesion enlargement at 1.5 years had the best performance for the derived 1-year ROG. Mean Dice scores were 0.73, 0.68, and 0.70, respectively, in the training, validation, and test sets. The R2 (0.77, 0.53, and 0.79) and r2 (0.83, 0.61, and 0.79) showed similar trends across the 3 sets. ConclusionsThese findings show the potential of using baseline and/or 6-month visit FAF images to predict 1-year GA ROG using a DL approach. This work could potentially help support decision making in clinical trials and more informed treatment decisions in clinical practice.
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