During the installation process of prefabricated components, deviations in dimensions and installation positions can occur due to construction quality issues, and the accumulation of these deviations can impact the reliability of component installation. However, the current approach to addressing accumulated deviations in the component installation process primarily relies on the trial-and-error method, lacking a solid theoretical foundation. This paper introduces the dimensional chain theory derived from mechanical engineering and presents a method to evaluate the installation reliability of prefabricated components in concrete structures. First, based on extensive measurements of installation deviations, it was found that the installation deviations of components followed a log-normal distribution. By analyzing the relationship between installation deviations and the acceptance rate, it was determined that for a 90% acceptance rate, the installation position deviation should be 8.6 mm for prefabricated wall panel components and 7.3 mm for prefabricated column components. Subsequently, the concept of dimensional chain theory from mechanical engineering was introduced to establish a limit state equation for quantifying the installation reliability of prefabricated components in concrete structures. By applying this theory, appropriate component fabrication dimensions could be determined to achieve a 95% level of installation reliability. Finally, by using the Monte Carlo method to solve the installation limit state equation for an actual engineering project, recommended fabrication dimensions for the components were obtained. The results indicate that within the horizontal axis, the length deviation of prefabricated beams, and the width fabrication dimension of columns needed to be reduced by 2.3 mm to 2.9 mm. Within the vertical axis, the length dimension of columns and the height dimension of beams had to be reduced by 0.9 mm to 2.2 mm to achieve a 95% level of installation reliability.