Different Levels Of Risk Research Articles

Tryptophan-like fluorescence as a high-level screening tool for detecting microbial contamination in drinking water

Regular monitoring of drinking water quality is vital to identify contamination of potable water supplies. Testing for microbial contamination is important to prevent transmission of waterborne disease, but establishing and maintaining a water quality monitoring programme requires sustained labour, consumables and resources. In low resource settings such as developing countries, this can prove difficult, but measuring microbial contamination is listed as a requirement of reaching the UN's Sustainable Development Goal 6 for water and sanitation. A nine-month water quality monitoring programme was conducted in rural Malawi to assess the suitability of tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF), an emerging method for rapidly detecting microbial contamination, as a drinking water quality monitoring tool. TLF data was compared with thermotolerant coliforms (TTCs, E. coli) and inorganic hydrochemical parameters. A large (n = 235) temporal dataset was collected from five groundwater drinking water sources, with samples collected once or twice weekly depending on the season. The results show that TLF can indicate a broader contamination risk but is not as sensitive to short term variability when compared to other faecal indicators. This is likely due to a broad association of TLF with elevated DOC concentrations from a range of different sources. Elevated TLF may indicate preferential conditions for the persistence of TTCs and/or E. coli, but not necessarily a public health risk from microbial contamination. TLF is therefore a more precautionary risk indicator than microbial culturing techniques and could prove useful as a high-level screening tool for initial risk assessment. For widespread use of TLF to be successful, standardisation of TLF values associated with different levels of risk is required, however, this study highlights the difficulties of equating TLF thresholds to TTCs or E. coli data because of the influence of DOC/HLF on the TLF signal.

The effect of risk levels on technology adoption decision: the case of online games

PurposeInformation technology is associated with psychological and physical risks such as high stress levels and antisocial behavior. The purpose of this paper is to understand why people engage in technology risk behavior, despite the negative consequences that might follow. Focusing on online games, this study identifies factors that affect individuals' intention to play online games and investigate whether the effects of these factors differ across different risk levels.Design/methodology/approachExperimental design was used as the research methodology. Subjects were randomly assigned to a single treatment with two conditions: high and low risk scenarios. A total of 597 responses were analyzed to test the research hypotheses.FindingsThe research findings reveal that subjective norms, curiosity and playfulness have a positive effect on the intention to play online games, while critical mass has no effect on the intention decisions. Further, among the three significant constructs, playfulness turned out to be the only factor that is affected by risk levels.Research limitations/implicationsThis study extends prior literature on technology adoption by examining the effect of different risk levels on adoption intention decisions. It further extends prior literature on online games by identifying the factors that drive individuals to play games while accounting for the risks associated with playing these games.Practical implicationsThe research study identifies factors that should be taken into consideration when promoting the adoption of technologies, including online games.Originality/valueThis study offers a new understanding of technology adoption decisions that takes into account the different levels of risk associated with technology use. It shows that an individual's curiosity and the pressure emanating from one's social network are powerful behavior drivers that persist regardless of the level of risk. Further, this research study is among the first to apply categorical least squares methodology combined with a procedure for a moderated structural equation model to test a structural equation model with categorical multiplicative terms in LISREL.

Effects of explanation types and perceived risk on trust in autonomous vehicles

Despite technological advances, trust still remains as a major issue facing autonomous vehicles. Existing studies have reported that explanations of the status of automation systems can be an effective strategy to increase trust, but these effects can differ depending on the forms of explanations and autonomous driving situations. To address this issue, this study examines the effects of explanation types and perceived risk on trust in autonomous vehicles. Three types of explanations (i.e., no, simple, and attributional explanations) are designed based on attribution theory. Additionally, four autonomous driving situations with different levels of risk are designed based on a simulator program. Results show that explanation type significantly affects trust in autonomous vehicles, and the perceived risk of driving situations significantly moderates the effect of the explanation type. At a high level of perceived risk, attributional explanations and no explanations lead to the lowest and highest values in trust, respectively. However, at a low level of perceived risk, these effects reverse.

Ecological risk assessment at the food web scale: A case study of a mercury contaminated oilfield

Mercury, particularly methylmercury, can accumulate through food webs and generate high risks for species at higher trophic levels. Inorganic mercury can be methylated into the organic species methylmercury if suitable reducing conditions exist, for example, in hotspots like oilfields. We developed a conceptual model to conduct an ecological risk assessment based on the food web structure of the Shengli oilfield area, China. The model can identify species at risk and elucidate the sources of risks according to their diet. A risk rating criteria was developed based on the food web structure to categorize the different levels of risks for different species. As expected, the results indicate increasing risks for the biota higher in the food web hierarchy. Grasshoppers were mostly at no risk throughout the study area, whereas grubs at southwest were at minimal risks due to local high Hg concentration in the soil. Mantises, which are insect predators, were also at minimal risk. Herbivorous birds with similar feeding habits than grasshoppers were at no risk, but omnivorous and carnivorous birds were at moderate risk. The conceptual model is a useful tool to improve pollution remediation and establish risk control strategies based on ecological risks of the food web rather than just Hg concentrations in the environment.

Optimizing forest management for timber production, carbon sequestration and groundwater recharge

Forest management decisions about species mixture and harvest time are usually bound to economic considerations. Ecosystem services (ES), aside from timber production, are hardly considered. Although the consideration of multiple ES became common in recent years, it is still unclear how ES can be integrated into forest optimization and how this changes forest management. To show possible changes when different ES are considered, our study examined the impact of the market value of three ES (timber production, carbon storage and groundwater recharge) on management decisions under different levels of risk. We included two common European tree species (European beech and Norway spruce) as well as market risks and the risk of stand failure in our optimization. We examined how the optimal species composition and harvest schedule change when considering different ES. The inclusion of different ES changes the optimal harvest schedule and species composition. Including carbon storage leads to small changes in harvest schedule and species composition. Adding groundwater recharge led to a diversified portfolio but it consisted completely of European beech. We also discuss ecological complexities so far not considered in our approach and their possible consequences for the results.

Physical Frailty and Fall Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Introduction Frailty is a condition in older adults with decreased physical and cognitive performance that can affect health outcomes associated with fracture, disability, and falls. The aim of this study was to compare fall risk with different physical frailty statuses and investigate factors associated with fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. Methods The population studied included 367 older adults (mean age = 73.2 years ± 7.0; 237 females (64.6%) and 130 males (35.4%)) who live in Chiang Mai, Thailand. This study was of cross-sectional design. Fried's phenotype was used to screen the physical frailty status. The physiological profile assessment (PPA) was used to screen for fall risk. One-way ANOVA analysis was used to compare the fall risk between the different levels of frailty status. Linear regression analysis was used to assess the association between frailty status and fall risk. Results The prevalence of the frailty group was 8.7% and that of the prefrailty group was 76.8%. The three statuses of frailty identified were found to have different levels of risk of falling. The frailty group had a higher fall risk than the nonfrailty group and the prefrailty group. In addition, the nonfrailty group had a lower fall risk than the prefrailty group. Conclusion The frailty group had the highest fall risk in this cohort of older adults living in a community-dwelling facility. Therefore, it is important to assess the frailty status among older adults as it can be a predictor for fall risk. This assessment will therefore lead to a reduction in the rate of disability and death in the community.

A STUDY ON PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLANNING OF MUTUAL FUND- WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO EQUITY SCHEME

Saving is an important aspect of human life and its effect the growth of economy also. Earlier the saving was not so attractive for the middle class people and it was in initial stage. The financial market in the present day is an advanced and highly analyzed move, as previously investment is not done just for grater or moderator return. Now a day the different financial investment tool involves different level of risk and return. As compared the stock market involves more risk and return also and the number of investors who lost their money is also in stock market. Recent trend in investment is wealth management or wealth creation and so many institutions are on to it. Mutual funds are one of the best wealth creation investment vehicles. After 2010 Systematic Investment planning is the most popular tool of investing the savings made every month. This scheme will help the people to meet regular expenditure and in the long term it will be the huge return on investment where one can expect more than the bank rates. Thus this paper aims to study the performance evaluation of Systematic investment Plan of different equity based mutual funds under different caps for five years.

A conceptual framework for reopening our society during the Covid-19 pandemic

Decisions about how to go about the necessary task of re-opening our society in the midst of the Covid-19 (CV19) have been paralyzed by our extremes. But we can neither afford to insist on a zero-risk response, nor can we pretend that the risk does not exist. What is needed are tools to rationally triage the risk. To this end, we propose a novel ‘risk index’, which is the intersection of two components of risk: 1) the risk of an individual becoming infected due to action ‘X’; and 2) the likely probability of death (or serious harm) if that individual develops CV19. The risk index allows risk to be compared across different scenarios, and may reveal that seemingly very different situations constitute similar degrees of risk. With risk measured in this way, one can then contrast different levels of risk against the social benefits of absorbing that risk, allowing actions to be sorted into those that are tolerable, debatable, or acceptable. While these concepts are presented in abstract based on approximate estimates of risk and influenced by our judgements about social desirability, the concept itself can be refined as more accurate approximations of risk and broadly accepted values of social desirability are derived empirically. In short, this is a tool intended to provide a useful empirical framework for rationale decision making about CV19.

Osteoporosis treatment considerations based upon fracture history, fracture risk assessment, vertebral fracture assessment, and bone density in Canada.

To inform criteria for pharmacologic treatment in women age 65years and older, we examined subgroups defined from fracture history, MOF calculated with BMD (MOF-BMD), VFA, and BMD T-score using the population-based Manitoba BMD Program registry. The study population consisted of women age>65years was divided into mutually exclusive subgroups based upon fracture history, MOF-BMD ≥ 20%, vertebral fracture on VFA, and osteoporotic BMD T-score. Healthcare records were assessed for the presence of fracture diagnosis codes occurring after DXA assessment. For each subgroup, we estimated the proportion of individuals with BMD T-score in the osteoporotic range, predicted versus observed 10-year MOF probability, hazard ratio (HR) for MOF, and number needed to treat (NNT) for 3years to prevent a fracture event. The study population consisted of 39,475 women (median age 72years). The majority of women (76.8%) selected as being at high risk based on fracture history, MOF-BMD>20%, or vertebral fracture on VFA had a BMD T-score in the osteoporotic range. During a median follow-up of 8years, 5169 (13.1%) sustained one or more incident MOF. Fracture rates and HRs generally paralleled the FRAX prediction, except in women with a positive VFA where predicted risk based upon clinical risk factors prior to VFA underestimated the observed risk. NNT differed by the risk subgroup, and showed a gradient of decreasing NNT (consistent with greater benefit) in individuals with the highest fracture risk. Fracture history, fracture probability from FRAX, targeted vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), and BMD T-score can stratify older women into different levels of risk and treatment benefit. These results are expected to inform clinical practice guidelines in Canada.

A conceptual framework for reopening our society during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Decisions about how to go about the necessary task of re-opening our society in the midst of the Covid-19 (CV19) have been paralyzed by our extremes. But we can neither afford to insist on a zero-risk response, nor can we pretend that the risk does not exist. What is needed are tools to rationally triage the risk. To this end, we propose a novel 'risk index', which is the intersection of two components of risk: 1) the risk of an individual becoming infected due to action 'X'; and 2) the likely probability of death (or serious harm) if that individual develops CV19. The risk index allows risk to be compared across different scenarios, and may reveal that seemingly very different situations constitute similar degrees of risk. With risk measured in this way, one can then contrast different levels of risk against the social benefits of absorbing that risk, allowing actions to be sorted into those that are tolerable, debatable, or acceptable. While these concepts are presented in abstract based on approximate estimates of risk and influenced by our judgements about social desirability, the concept itself can be refined as more accurate approximations of risk and broadly accepted values of social desirability are derived empirically. In short, this is a tool intended to provide a useful empirical framework for rationale decision making about CV19.

Types of Group Sex and Their Association with Different Sexual Risk Behaviors Among HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex with Men.

The current study sought to identify types of group sex acts among HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) and assess their association with different sexual risk behaviors using cross-sectional data of group sex acts reported during 6 waves (2015-2018) of the Amsterdam MSM Cohort Study. Latent class analysis was performed to identify group sex types based on size, familiarity with partners, location, planning, and drug use. Associations between group sex types and sexual behaviors were evaluated using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations, employing the sample mean as a reference. Data at the level of group sex acts were analyzed, while correcting variance estimations for repeated measurements within MSM. A total of 392 MSM engaged in group sex ≥ 1 times, totaling 1033 group sex acts. Four types of group sex emerged: familiar (29%), intimate (27%), impromptu (36%), and party (8%). Familiar group sex (characterized by high proportions of mostly known partners, occurring in private places and involving drug use) had an increased adjusted odds of risky fingering (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.3-2.0) and of risky fisting and/or use of sex toys (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 1.6-3.1). Intimate group sex (characterized by high proportions of threesomes, occurring in private places, and not involving drug use) had a decreased adjusted odds of risky fisting and/or use of sex toys (aOR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4-0.9). Impromptu group sex (characterized by high proportions of spontaneity, mostly unknown partners, and taking place in public places) had a decreased adjusted odds of risky fisting and/or use of sex toys (aOR 0.5, 95%CI 0.3-0.7) and of condomless anal intercourse (CAI) (OR 0.6, 95%CI 0.5-0.8). Party group sex (characterized by high proportions of larger groups, mostly unknown partners, and being planned) had an increased adjusted odds of risky fisting and/or use of sex toys (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.0-2.7) and of CAI (aOR 1.5, 95%CI 1.1-2.1). The identified types of group sex reflect different dynamics and characteristics, with some types riskier for STIs and others riskier for HIV. HIV and STI prevention efforts could be tailored accordingly. For example, in certain type of public sex environments (e.g., cruising parks), traditional HIV and STI prevention efforts, such as promoting of condom use and PrEP, might be sufficient. However, in other settings (e.g., private parties), where group sex is more likely to be planned and where behaviors such as fisting, sharing of sex toys, and CAI are more likely to take place, which carry different levels of risk for HIV and STI transmission, including that of Hepatitis C, different approaches might be needed, such as broader HIV and STI prevention education efforts or targeting the organizers of group sex events.

Musculoskeletal Disorders Evaluation of Glass Factory Workers using the Discomfort Survey Questionnaire and Assessment Repetitive Tasks (ART) Method

AimMusculoSkeletal Disorders (MSDs) are the most common and most costly occupational injuries and one of the main causes of work-related disability and disability among workers. The aim of this study was musculoskeletal disorders evaluation of glass factory workers using the discomfort survey questionnaire and Assessment Repetitive Tasks (ART)methodMethod and Instruments: This study was a cross-sectional study. Data were collected by census of active workers in the two main production halls. The MSDs data among 40 workers were collected using the discomfort survey questionnaire. Four types of activity were evaluated by ART method. The study data were analyzed using SPSS 22 software.FindingsThe results obtained from the questionnaire and evaluation of ART method were consistent. According to the results obtained from the left and right were as different levels of risk and the right to 42.17% of the average risk level, 28.14 percent and 28.14 percent of high-risk but low level of risk to low risk level and 85.42% of the left 85.42 percent average risk and 28.14% of the high - risk level is obtained.ConclusionFor most tasks sides of the body with moderate risk level. By providing simple and low-cost solutions, as well as management of these disorders can be prevented to some extent.

Social scientific knowledge in times of crisis: What climate change can learn from coronavirus (and vice versa).

"Crisis, by its very nature, requires decisive intervention. However, important questions can be obscured by the very immediacy of the crisis condition. What is the nature of the crisis? How it is defined (and by whom)? And, subsequently, what forms of knowledge are deemed legitimate and authoritative for informing interventions?""

The role of agency in regret and relief in 3- to 10-year-old children

The emotions of regret and relief are mediated by the counterfactual comparison between the obtained and foregone outcomes of our decisions. Regret is strongly associated with a feeling of responsibility for a decision when the outcome might have been better. This may be contrasted with disappointment, which is experienced when the outcome occurs independently of the agent's decisions. The same contrast may be made between these emotions’ positive counterparts of relief and elation. The current studies seek to make important distinctions between children's experience of regret and disappointment, and relief and elation. Children aged between 3 and 10 years (N = 225) chose between two gambles with different levels of risk under differing conditions of feedback and agency. There was a significant effect of agency for children aged 6 years and older following regret eliciting trials. A significant effect of agency was found only for children aged 10 years for relief trials. There was no effect of agency for elation and disappointment trials. These findings suggest that children as young as 6 are sensitive to manipulations of agency, and that responsibility for a decision is crucial for children to feel a negative emotion upon discovering that acting otherwise would have turned out better. These findings suggest a more nuanced developmental trajectory for the counterfactual emotions than was previously considered.

The effect of imperfect memory recall on risk preferences

AbstractPeople often take on different levels of risk when deciding on future actions compared with when they take actions with immediate consequences. The presently reported research investigated how imperfect recall of previously chosen options influences temporal fluctuations in risk preferences. In two incentivized studies with a waiting time before decision resolution (a 4‐week waiting period from an initial decision), we observed that errors in the recall of previous choices played a substantial role in constructing risk preferences for choices that are usually resolved after a delay. More specifically, in a first study, we found that after a waiting period (i.e., after participants waited for their risky choices to be resolved), participants perceived that they took less risk during their initial choices than they actually did. Importantly, when asked about whether they would change their initial choices, participants declared that they would take riskier choices. In a second study, we tested directly whether such a shift in initial choices could also be demonstrated behaviorally. Results revealed that after beliefs about past choices were induced, participants changed their risk preferences in line with the information presented during belief induction.

Psychometric Properties of the "Alcohol Consumption Consequences Evaluation" (ACCE) Scale for Young Spanish University Students.

Instruments that evaluate alcohol use consequences among young people do not consider the intensive alcohol consumption pattern that is so characteristic during these ages. Some of these instruments are even ineffective in the Spanish population. Hence the interest in developing an instrument more adapted to the reality of our young people. A total of 601 university students (35.9% male and 64.1% female) from 18 to 20 years old were recruited. All of them answered a total of 77 items obtained from the review of both the scientific literature and the different scales used to measure consequences derived from alcohol consumption. In addition, they completed the AUDIT and the Timeline Followback for self-reported consumption. The data were analyzed using factor analysis and a two-parameter logistic model. ROC curve analysis was used to establish cut-off points for different risk levels of alcohol consumption distinguishing between genders. The final 43-item scale Alcohol Consumption Consequences Evaluation (ACCE) (Evaluación de Consecuencias derivadas del Consumo de Alcohol [ECCA]) shows adequate psychometric properties: α = 0.94; unidimensionality through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) (26.25% of explained variance) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) (RMSEA = 0.39; TLI and CFI > 0.90). In addition, ROC analyses, both at a global scale and distinguishing between genders, were able to characterize consumers with different levels of risk, obtaining areas under the curve between 0.82 and 0.88. A scale has been obtained that enables the establishment of cut-off points to distinguish between the consequences of low, moderate and high risk alcohol consumption. The clinical utility of the ACCE is highlighted by using one single instrument to perform the screening of a possible alcohol risk consumption as well as identifying the consequences that need to be worked on in the evaluated person’s or group’s intervention.

Cosmetic Surgery Industry in Brazil: An Assessment Using Cause and Effect Model and Risk Assessment Matrix

Brazil ranks only second after the United States for the most cosmetic procedures performed in the year 2017. The impressive number of Brazilian cosmetic procedures highlights a profitable market that tends to attract business opportunities to this area. Hence, this study strive to analyze the risk and consequences of cosmetic surgery to physical and mental health as the hidden costs for beauty in Brazil, and recommend areas for improvement to the cosmetic surgery industry in Brazil aimed at combating the issues of surgical failure in the country. Risk and Assessment Matrix was adopted to analyse the risks and consequences of cosmetic surgery to physical and mental health of patients, and the Cause and Effect Model Lastly was employed to identify the possible root causes for Brazilians to risk their life for beauty. The findings showed that the different types of cosmetic surgery complications carry different level of risks and consequences to patients, and the evolving cosmetic surgery trend in Brazil is driven by the factors include culture, cost of offering, growing economy of the country, and celebrity trend. Lastly, recommendations are given to business practitioners and government.

Secure Lending: Blockchain and Prospect Theory-Based Decentralized Credit Scoring Model

Credit scoring is a rigorous statistical analysis carried out by lenders and other third parties to access an individual's creditworthiness. Lenders use credit scoring to estimate the degree of risk in lending money to an individual. However, credit score evaluation is primarily based on a transaction record, payment history, professional background, etc. sourced from different credit bureaus. So, evaluating a credit score is a laborious and tedious task involving a lot of paperwork. In this paper, we propose how blockchain can provide the solution to decentralized credit scoring evaluation and reducing the amount of dependence of paperwork. Lending money is not always objective but subjective to every lender. The decision of lending involves different levels of risk and uncertainty, depending on their perspective. This paper uses the prospect theory to model the optimal investment strategy for different risk vs. return scenarios.

The transmission mechanisms of macroprudential policies on bank risk

In this article, we study the transmission mechanisms of the effect of a set of 12 macroprudential policies on the risk-taking of banks using a large number of countries and a novel identification approach. Our results show that tools which aim to address vulnerabilities from interconnectedness and contagion of the financial system, such as limits on asset concentration and interbank exposures, have a positive effect on bank stability, enhancing the risk-return relation of banks and reducing leverage. Some borrower-based instruments also have a positive effect on bank stability, primarily through the leverage channel. We also find evidence that banks reduce their equity when policies impose limits on domestic and foreign currency loans. The effects are quite heterogeneous and vary considerably depending on the instrument implemented, market concentration, size of banks, liquidity, leverage and different levels of risk.

Practical Applications of 529 College Savings Plans under the TCJA: Evaluating Age-Based Portfolios

Practical Applications Summary In 529 College Savings Plans under the TCJA: Evaluating Age-Based Portfolios, from the Fall 2019 edition of The Journal of Wealth Management, Ross A. Riskin of the American College of Financial Services discusses the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) on 529 college savings plans. The TCJA expanded the types of educational expenses for which 529 plans can be used to include qualified K–12 tuition expenses. However, investors should be aware that certain investment options within 529 plans may not be optimal when planning for these educational opportunities. For instance, most age-based portfolios in 529 plans assume that the beneficiary will be 18 years old when the disbursement of funds begins. This assumption is reflected in allocations to equity, which may be overallocated for beneficiaries younger than 18 and underallocated for beneficiaries older than 18 when planning for K-12 or post-graduate tuition expenses, respectively. Additionally, states vary in both the tax laws pertaining to 529 plans and the different levels of risk assumed by the portfolios. Riskin suggests that investors may be better off pursuing static portfolios or individual investment options if they plan to use the funds to pay for qualifying non-undergraduate education expenses. TOPICS:Legal/regulatory/public policy, portfolio construction