Different Levels Of Risk Research Articles

When Gain/Loss Framing Exerts Its Effects and How: Examining the Roles of Risk Perceptions, Anticipated Regret, and Anxiety

ABSTRACTOver the past 30 years, gain/loss framing has received substantial scholarly attention from advertising researchers. Nevertheless, its effects are not yet fully understood, and further research is required to clarify mixed findings reported in previous studies. In response to this gap in the literature, this study examined the mechanisms through which risk perceptions affect gain/loss framing effects, using two experiments involving different levels of risks. Experiment 1, which involves low risk, showed that gain framing was more effective for consumers with stronger risk perceptions. However, this advantage disappeared when consumers' risk perceptions were weak. In Experiment 2, which involves high risk, loss framing was more effective for consumers with weaker risk perceptions; however, these effects disappeared when consumers' risk perceptions were very strong. The study also revealed that anticipated regret mediates the interaction effects of framing and risk perceptions on attitudes and intentions. The findings of this study suggest that risk perceptions may help explain the inconsistent results reported in previous research.

Intersecting Pathways: Understanding Dementia, Hearing Loss, and Health Disparities

Abstract Background Dementia is a major public health concern, affecting care dependency and disability in older ages. In Europe, around 14.1 million people live with dementia, a number that is expected to increase to 15.9 million by 2040. Hearing loss (HL), followed by education, has been proposed as the most important modifiable risk factor for dementia. This study aims to investigate how sex, educational attainment and HL intersect to influence dementia-free life expectancy (DemFLE) in older adults. Methods Using population register data covering all Finnish residents aged 50 years or older from 2010 to 2019, we apply discrete-time multistate Markov models. Transition probabilities between states, such as HL and dementia, are estimated with multinomial logit models stratified by sex and education. Multistate life tables are used to compute sex- and education-specific DemFLE. Results We identified 316,361 individuals with a diagnosis of dementia and 317,115 individuals with a diagnosis of HL, representing 1,449,873 and 2,738,970 person-years respectively. 14% of individuals with HL were eventually diagnosed with dementia, compared to only 8% of individuals without HL. We hypothesise that DemFLE will vary significantly by sex and education, with additional modulation by the presence of HL. Specifically, we expect that the presence of HL will further reduce DemFLE, and that the magnitude of this reduction will be relatively greater among those with lower educational attainment. Conclusions This study contributes to the emerging literature on the impact of hearing loss on dementia. While both dementia and hearing loss are irreversible health conditions, hearing loss can be managed by hearing aids. If we find evidence that hearing loss is associated with different levels of risk of dementia by educational attainment, it would suggest avenues for effective interventions and public health policies to ensure more equal ageing processes in the population. Key messages • Hearing loss may intersect with education and sex in the risk of dementia, providing evidence for the importance of addressing hearing health inequalities in dementia prevention efforts. • Understanding the interactions between hearing loss, education and sex can inform policies to promote healthy ageing and reduce the burden of dementia on individuals and health systems.

Developing an mpox risk assessment matrix for social listening and infodemic insights generation

Abstract Issue Any effective response to an infodemic, requires prioritizing public health response on identified narrative themes that pose highest risk to health and well-being of populations. High-risk narratives often require more swift and far-reaching action and low-risk narratives require little or no response. Description of the problem Different countries are assigned different levels of risk to specific narratives or concerns, recognizing that for some issues there may be a large gap between the true public health threat and what is generating lots of conversations, concerns and press coverage that indicate a high degree of risk perception that may be unwarranted. WHO developed a risk matrix to apply to global analysis of questions, concerns and narratives about mpox, which resulted in biweekly infodemic intelligence reports that risk-assessed identified infodemic themes and corresponding recommendations for action. Results Risk assessment criteria were defined in the context of WHO’s global infodemic insights analysis for low, medium and high risk and positive sentiment in mpox global outbreak context before conducting the integrated analysis so that insights were reproducible and infodemic response actions were prioritized. This implemented the WHO/UNICEF training manual on 6 steps to produce an infodemic insights report, which includes tools on how to develop and apply a risk matrix for a specific public health question of concern and apply it in analysis. Lessons The approach resulted in rapid, systematic, reproducible and evidence-driven decision-making to respond to the infodemic accompanying the mpox global outbreak. Risk matrices must be adapted to the context of the public health event and the mandate of the health authority taking action. An mpox risk matrix for narratives included adaptation to reflect high-risk from stigmatizing narratives, as well as narratives circulating around or within LGBTQI+ communities. Key messages • A risk matrix must be developed and adapted to the context of each health emergency and level of health authority action. • Prioritization for rapid infodemic response based on a risk assessment is that it facilitates more effective response in a health emergency.

Sex, gender and human rights: essential components of inclusive medical research

ABSTRACT Much of past medical research has been sex and gender ‘blind’ and has failed to take account of gender norms and practices that place men and women at different levels of risk of certain diseases. Further, non-binary, trans and people with intersex characteristics have been especially marginalised in research practices. Other forms of discrimination based on race, disability and socio-economic disadvantage have cut-across and exacerbated these research gaps. This paper considers that medical codes of ethics alone are insufficient to address sex and gender disparities in medical research and suggests that adopting a human rights approach to medical research provides a systematic way to collect, analyse and report on sex and gender data in ways that are person-centred, empowering and participatory.

RISKS OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO OF BANKS OF KAZAKHSTAN: PROBLEMS AND WAYS TO SOLUTION

The article examines the essence and classification of the definition of «market risk». It is noted that managing market risks in a bank is a complex and multifaceted process that requires constant analysis and monitoring of market conditions, and an important element of the market risk management system is the formation of an effective investment portfolio, which includes various assets with different levels of risk. This will allow you to control and minimize possible losses, and will also help the bank determine the optimal balance between risk and profitability, which will help increase its profits. Using modern data analysis methods, an analysis of the real average investment portfolio of second-tier domestic banks was carried out and an assessment of the generated conditional investment portfolio was given. Based on the study, problems were identified and directions for improving market risk management in the bank were given.

DEFINING COMPONENTS OF THE METHODOLOGICAL PLATFORM FOR FORMING A BUSINESS PORTFOLIO OF A COMPANY IN THE UPDATED FORMAT OF MODERN DEVELOPMENT

The article is devoted to the analysis of the economic and operational imperatives of forming a business portfolio for a development company in the construction sector. A successful business portfolio management strategy requires the integration of financial, organizational, and technological aspects to ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of the business. In modern conditions, real estate development is one of the key factors that determines the dynamics of enterprise development, as it includes a comprehensive approach to asset management, from planning and financing to the construction and operation of objects. The theoretical and methodological foundations of the genesis of development at the current stage of the construction market's evolution have been analyzed.The methodological platform for forming a business portfolio should be based on the principles of rational resource management, risk analysis, and technological optimization. Changes in development activities require the active use of digital tools and a comprehensive approach to managing residential, commercial, and industrial properties, which allows for the maximization of profitability and minimization of risks.The article discusses the main stages of portfolio formation, such as strategic planning, selection of investment objects, and their integration into the overall structure of the enterprise. An economic and mathematical formalization of the process is also provided. For the successful operation of a development company, it is crucial to ensure coordinated work at all stages of the project — from planning and financing to construction and commissioning of the facilities.Particular attention is paid to the methods of economic and mathematical modelling (EMM) and quantitative risk analysis, which have become the basis for the development of the latest asset management strategies. The study analyses 35 different techniques. Each methodology offers unique tools for the effective management of development projects that allow forecasting financial flows, determining optimal investment strategies, and building the best plans for the development of a real estate portfolio. The specific methods used to value residential, commercial and industrial real estate are also discussed, taking into account their different levels of risk and return.It is important to note that the updated methodological platform is suitable for adaptation to the latest technologies and digital tools. This includes the introduction of a project management system, the use of artificial intelligence technologies to analyse large amounts of data, and the use of analytical tools to predict market trends. This approach helps to optimise asset management in a changing market environment. The analysis of the main components of the business portfolio formation platform also showed that important factors for the successful implementation of development projects are the speed of response to market changes, flexibility of management decisions, and the ability to minimise risks at all stages of the project.

Risks and profitability of business models of insurance companies

Ukrainian insurance companies are steadily moving towards the European development framework, facilitated by the adoption of a series of radical regulatory documents by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) concerning the super­vision of their activities based on a risk-oriented approach. This, in turn, requires insurance compa­nies to make fundamental changes to their risk management processes and substantiate their choice of a viable business model capable of ensu­ring their long-term. The aim of the article is to determine the level of risks and the related profitability of business models of insurance companies of Ukraine, as well as to develop recommendations for their transfor­mation based on proactive risk management. The research is based on the use of a set of such methods as analysis, comparison, grouping, correlation. Various methodical approaches to distinguishing the business models of insurers are revealed and their brief description is given. An analysis of risks for business models of life and non-life insurance was carried out based on the system of selected indicators. An analysis of the correlation relationship between the ratio of insurance payments to insurance premiums (dependent variable) and independent variables was carried out. Proposals aimed at imple­menting innovative business models based on proactive risk management have been deve­loped. Formulated and empirically tested hypo­theses regarding the reduction of the scale of the insurance business under the influence of the unfavorable economic situation, the war in Ukraine and the strengthening of regulatory requirements for insurers; different levels of risks are inherent in the business models of non-life and life insurers; the introduction of innova­tive business models for insurers should be based on the conceptual principles of proactive risk management

Active Left Atrial Ejection Fraction as a Non-Invasive Marker in Pulmonary Hypertension Secondary to Heart Failure

BackgroundPatients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) secondary to left heart failure (HF) exhibit a complex pathophysiological profile and poor prognosis. Left atrial function is pivotal in the progression of this disease, yet its predictive significance remains exclusive. This study aimed to explore the predictive capability of LA metrics in this population and compare them with other common predictors. MethodsIn this retrospective study, consecutive patients with PH secondary to HF who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging between December 2010 and December 2021 were enrolled. The composite endpoint was defined as all-cause death, heart-lung transplantation, or left ventricular assist device implantation. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox regression analyses. ResultsA total of 174 patients with PH secondary to HF, with a mean age of 53.2 ± 14.9 years, including 90 men, were included in the final analysis. During a median follow-up of 31.9 months, 58 patients (33.3%) with PH reached the endpoints. There was a fair correlation between active left atrial ejection fraction (LAEF) and pulmonary artery wedge pressure (r = -0.397, p = 0.044). Active LAEF had a strong correlation with oxygen consumption at anaerobic threshold (r = 0.769, p < 0.001) and peak oxygen consumption (r = 0.754, p < 0.001). Active LAEF demonstrated comparable prognostic performance to other variables measured by echocardiography or CMR. After adjusting for clinical variables and left ventricular ejection fraction, active LAEF was still an independent predictor for adverse events (C-statistic: 0.784). Subgroup analysis among HF patients with preserved ejection fraction demonstrated that those with active LAEF ≤ 8.6% had a 7.05-fold higher risk of experiencing the composite endpoint compared to those with active LAEF > 8.6%. ConclusionAlthough active LAEF does not demonstrate statistical improvement in outcome discrimination compared to established metrics, it may still merit consideration for assessing disease severity and prognosis in patients with PH secondary to HF. The integration of active LAEF and HF subtypes may stratify individuals at different levels of risk.

Different concepts of neighborhood safety and child internalizing and externalizing behaviors.

Neighborhood safety is defined inconsistently across epidemiologic studies - a conceptual problem that results in incomparable measurements, hampering the design of health interventions. Using child behavior problems (measured via the Child Behavior Checklist) as the outcome of interest, this study directly compared four measures of neighborhood safety: two of experienced safety and two of perceived safety, with each one measured at family and community levels. These included children's direct experience of harm, parental perceptions, community crime statistics, and community perceptions. In a sample of 3291 ten-year-olds from the Generation R cohort (living in municipal Rotterdam, Netherlands, 2013), all four measures were correlated (χ2 ≥ 9.2, P < 0.002 in pairwise chi-square comparisons), but ultimately identified different levels of risk for behavioral health. Direct experiences of harm, parental perceptions, and community crime statistics were all associated with increased child internalizing behaviors (β = 3.12, β = 2.10, and β = 1.77, respectively), while only experiences of harm and parental perceptions were associated with increased externalizing behaviors (β = 2.75 and β = 1.31, respectively). These results provide novel evidence that the conceptual distinctions underlying different measures of neighborhood safety are meaningful for child mental health and should be considered in intervention design.

Different Risks—Different Views: How Hydrogen Infrastructure Is Linked to Societal Risk Perception

Herein, risk perception as one relevant factor for public acceptance and examines the different levels of risk that play a role in the evaluation of new technologies and links them to the current societal discourses on the development of a hydrogen economy is addressed. The conceptual framework is based on a holistic understanding of risk that goes beyond mere technology assessment and also includes systemic risks along the value chain; different stakeholder perspectives are also addressed. Thus, the results of a media analysis are combined with the results of a representative survey in Germany. Results show a rather low risk perception of hydrogen in the public combined with a high degree of uncertainty in the respective risk estimation. Systemic risks like security of supply or increasing energy costs are perceived more strongly compared to accidental risks from hydrogen infrastructure, whereas for the public acceptance potential health risks show the strongest correlation. Overall, the study shows the relevance of risk considerations in the introduction of new technologies and accompanying communication measures.

CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential evapotranspiration for 2021-2060

The “Future Global Aridity Index and PET Database” provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) for 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models for two future (2021-2041; 2041-2060) and two historical (1960-1990; 1970–2000) time periods, for each of four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Three multimodel ensemble averages are also provided (All; Majority Consensus, High Risk) with different level of risks linked to climate model uncertainty. An overview of the methodological approach, geospatial implementation and a technical evaluation of the results is provided. Historical results were compared for technical validation with weather station data (PET: r 2 = 0.72; AI: r 2 = 0.91) and the CRU_TS v 4.04 dataset (PET: r 2 = 0.67; AI: r 2 = 0.80). Within the context of projected significant change in the near- and medium-term, the “Future_Global_AI_PET Database” provides a set of data projections and tools available for a variety of scientific and practical applications, illustrating trends and magnitude of predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The Future_Global_AI_PET Database is archived in the ScienceDB repository and available online at: https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.nbsdc.00086

Diagnostic performance of the (1-3)-β-d-glucan assay in patients with different risks for invasive fungal diseases.

We evaluated the diagnostic performance of the β-d-glucan (BDG) test (Beijing Gold Mountain River Tech) in diagnosing invasive fungal disease (IFD) and its variations among patients with different risks. Patients≥18 years old who underwent a serum BDG test (positive cutoff value>80 pg/ml) from April 2017 through May 2018 were collected consecutively. Patients were classified into three groups: group 1, patients with host factors as defined by the prior 2008 European Organization for Research and Treatment (EORTC) criteria; group 2, those with extended host factors in 2020 EORTC criteria; and group 3, those without any risk factor mentioned in the criteria. IFD was defined by 2020 EORTC criteria, but BDG was not considered. Diagnostic performance of the serum BDG test was measured by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Among 469 patients, 15.4% (72/469) were diagnosed with IFD (48/191 [25.1%], 14/144 [9.7%], and 10/134 [7.5%] in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively). The BDG assay showed fair performance (AUC 0.748 [95% CI: 0.688-0.810]). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 77.8%, 60.7%, 26.4%, and 93.8%, respectively. PPV was higher in group 1, and NPV was higher in group 3. Additionally, diagnostic odds ratios were 6.73, 2.88, and 5.92 in groups 1, 2, and 3. Immunosuppressant use, non-IFD/Candida colonization, and central venous catheter were associated with false positivity. Clinicians should cautiously interpret the BDG assay, considering the various diagnostic performances depending on the different levels of risk.

HERisk and statistical clustering integrated for health risk modelling of PTEs in natural water resources for drinking and sanitary uses

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) are well-known for exposing living organisms and humans to different levels of risk. The present study aimed to evaluate the extent of exposure to health risks sustained by the inhabitants of different suburbs across Southeastern Nigeria as a result of contaminated water sources. There are existing literatures on human health risk assessment in the study region. However, this is the first study to report a detailed breakdown of the risks faced by nine age groups in the study area. This was achieved by integrating a novel code (HERisk), statistical clustering, and water quality data. Laboratory analysis showed that the levels of PTEs (Fe2+, Ni2+, Cr3+, and Pb2+) in 53.6%, 17.8%, 3.5%, and 46% of the samples were found to be above the recommended limits. Aggregated human health risk scores for ingestion and dermal routes revealed that children aged 1 to 2 years are the most vulnerable to health hazards. According to cumulative carcinogenic health risk values (0.00E+00 to 2.41E-04), samples proximal to regions with significant human activities expose the locals to a high risk of developing cancer via ingestion. Q-mode hierarchical cluster analysis successfully validated the classification schemes used for the interpretation of the HERisk code values, captured the patterns in the dataset, and brought forth new perspectives. The comprehensive approach detailed in this study can be adopted as a framework for ongoing monitoring and assessment of water quality.

Analysis of the Gas Safety Situation Based on the Schweizer-Sklar Rule.

In the coal mining process, a large amount of harmful gases will be produced, which we call "gas". The main component of gas is methane. After the methane concentration reaches a certain limit, an explosion will occur, seriously affecting the safety of the production of coal mines. Gas safety situational awareness is an important basis for gas early warning. In order to take appropriate measures for different levels of risk, the safety situation level is classified into five levels, which can be attributed to the classification problem in machine learning. We propose a gas security situation analysis model based on the Schweizer-Sklar rule (GSSAM-SSR) using the multiweighted Schweizer-Sklar triangular norm array combination rule (SSR). First, the raw data are preprocessed. The model uses K-means clustering with feature preference to determine the label column of the data set and principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the collected high-dimensional gas-related data. Ten basic classification models are constructed, and the best performing models are selected as the basic classifier set by using the preorder method. Then, the SSR combination rule is proposed to combine the basic classifiers. Finally, considering the dynamic and quasi dynamic data of the mine, the basic classifier set and SSR combination rule are combined to construct the GSSAM-SSR model and applied to the gas security situation analysis. Experimental results show that the SSR combination rule achieves the best classification performance, exhibiting an accuracy of 94.43%, which is 2.51% higher than the accuracy of the gradient boosting decision tree model, which was the highest performing basic classifier and higher than the accuracies of the voting method and Bayesian combination rule.

Strategies to determine positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 memory T lymphocyte response during the evolution of an epidemic

During SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the assessment of immune protection of people at risk of severe infection was an important goal. The appearance of VOCs (Variant of Concern) highlighted the limits of evaluating immune protection through the humoral response. While the humoral response partly loses its neutralizing activity, the anti-SARS-CoV-2 memory T cell response strongly cross protects against VOCs becoming an indispensable tool to assess immune protection. We compared two techniques available in laboratory to evaluate anti-SARS-CoV-2 memory T cell response in a cohort of infected or vaccinated patients with different levels of risk to develop a severe disease: the ELISpot assay and the T-Cell Lymphocyte Proliferation Assay respectively exploring IFNγ production and cell proliferation. We showed that the ELISpot assay detected more anti-Spike memory T cell response than the Lymphocyte Proliferation Assay. We next observed that the use of two different suppliers as antigenic source in the ELISpot assay did not affect the detection of anti-Spike memory T cell response. Finally, we explored a new approach for defining the positivity threshold, using unsupervised mixed Gaussian modeling, challenging the traditional ROC curve used by the supplier. That will be helpful in endemic situation where it could be difficult to recruit “negative” patients.

Payment for Ecosystem Services: institutional arrangements for a changing climate in the Chilean Mediterranean Region

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) can promote different types of governance arrangements to address the triple challenge of biodiversity loss, climate change and air pollution. These institutional arrangements, however, do not explicitly incorporate climate change into the ecosystem’s capacity to provide services. In this study, we explore why and how to incorporate climate uncertainties using as example the Altos de Cantillana Nature Reserve, a unique biodiversity hotspot in Central Chile. First, prioritized ecosystem services (ES) were grouped in bundles and linked to measured and modeled impacts of climate change on key water-related processes. Second, institutional barriers to PES were identified from case studies and analyzed considering challenges in a changing climate. Finally, bundles with different levels of risk were matched to six recommendations that better incorporate levels of risks to the uncertainty of climate change into Payment for Ecosystem Services in Chile.

Measuring Risk Tolerance Among Japanese Adults and Cross-National Comparison of Its Role in COVID-19 Attitudes

Abstract: Risk propensity and attitudes influence how one responds and behaves in situations with different levels of risk. To date, limited studies have investigated domain-specific risk attitudes and their measurement in Japanese contexts or had direct comparisons between Japanese and other cultural contexts. In Study 1 ( N = 567), we developed a Japanese version of the multi-domain risk tolerance (MDRT) scale applicable to Japanese populations. The scale was further examined in Study 2 ( N = 509). We also tested cross-cultural measurement invariance between the Japanese and a US sample ( N = 495). In addition, we explored cultural differences in the predictive validity of MDRT on the concerns and attitudes relating to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results demonstrated that MDRT has promising structure validity, reliability, convergent validity, and measurement invariance in the Japanese population. Results also showed that domain-specific risk attitudes as measured by MDRT have similarly important relationships with individuals’ concerns about COVID-19 in many life aspects, and their support for COVID-19 restrictions in both Japanese and US samples.

AI-Related Risk: An Epistemological Approach

Risks connected with AI systems have become a recurrent topic in public and academic debates, and the European proposal for the AI Act explicitly adopts a risk-based tiered approach that associates different levels of regulation with different levels of risk. However, a comprehensive and general framework to think about AI-related risk is still lacking. In this work, we aim to provide an epistemological analysis of such risk building upon the existing literature on disaster risk analysis and reduction. We show how a multi-component analysis of risk, that distinguishes between the dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, allows us to better understand the sources of AI-related risks and effectively intervene to mitigate them. This multi-component analysis also turns out to be particularly useful in the case of general-purpose and experimental AI systems, for which it is often hard to perform both ex-ante and ex-post risk analyses.

Exploring R&D network resilience under risk propagation: An organizational learning perspective

Through the development of a risk propagation model, this paper investigates R&D network resilience under risk propagation from an organizational learning perspective. Drawing from organizational learning theory, we first quantify failure experience in the context of risk propagation. Then a risk propagation model is developed, which is composed of two parts: spontaneous mechanism and propagation mechanism. Finally, we implement agent-based simulation to show how organizational learning and forgetting impact on R&D network resilience and firm vulnerability under risk propagation. Our results show a significant association between organizational learning and both network resilience and firm vulnerability. However, the results differ in different levels of risk. When the propagation probability is low, network resilience can be enhanced through improving the learning ability or decreasing forgetting for both high-vulnerable and low-vulnerable firms. However, in other scenarios, the low-vulnerable firms are more critical to network resilience. Additionally, the impact of firm failure magnitude on enhancing network resilience will gradually decrease with the increase of firm learning rate. Our results will help practitioners understand the effect of organizational learning on R&D network resilience and support decision-making in risk management.

Individualized radiology screening for newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma

ObjectivesCurrent guidelines recommend universal PET/CT screening for metastases staging in newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) despite the low rate of synchronous distant metastasis (SDM). The study aims to achieve individualized screening recommendations of NPC based on the risk of SDM. Methods and materials18 pre-treatment peripheral blood indicators was retrospectively collected from 2271 primary NPC patients. A peripheral blood risk score (PBRS) was constructed by indicators associated with SDM on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The PBRS-based distant metastases (PBDM) model was developed from features selected by logistic regression analyses in the training cohort and then validated in the validation cohort. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate PBDM model performance. ResultsPre-treatment Epstein–Barr viral DNA copy number, percentage of total lymphocytes, serum lactate dehydrogenase level, and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio were most strongly associated with SDM in NPC and used to construct the PBRS. Sex (male), T stage (T3-4), N stage (N2-3), and PBRS (≥1.076) were identified as independent risk factors for SDM and applied in the PBDM model, which showed good performance. Through the model, patients in the training cohort were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Individualized screening recommendations were then developed for patients with differing risk levels. ConclusionThe PBDM model offers individualized recommendations for applying PET/CT for metastases staging in NPC, allowing more targeted screening of patients with greater risk of SDM compared with current recommendations.