Difference-in-differences Research Articles

Impact of the comprehensive agricultural water use reform policy on food production: Quasinatural experimental evidence from China

In 2014, the Chinese government launched a comprehensive agricultural water use reform policy (CAWURP) for the conservation of agricultural water. Thus, the question as of as to how the implementation of this policy affects food production has arisen. To answer this question, we use Chinese provincial data from 2004 to 2021 and apply the difference-in-differences (DID) method to explore the relationship between the CAWURP and food production. The results show that the CAWURP can significantly improve food production, which means that water conservation and food production growth can be achieved simultaneously. Moreover, the CAWURP can enhance technological innovation and promote large-scale crop cultivation, which is conducive to enhancing food production. Regional division based on the CAWURP, economic development level, and food production area type significantly impacts the effect of the CAWURP. For example, policy reforms have been more effective at increasing food production capacity in the northeastern and eastern regions. However, such policy reforms have been less effective in the more water-poor northwestern region and in the major food-producing regions. Based on these conclusions, this study suggests that the Chinese government should differentially implement the CAWURP by, for example, strengthening the level of policy implementation in Northwest China and adjusting policy implementation projects in not only the major food-producing regions of the country but also Central China to enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation. This study provides a useful reference for other countries aiming to conduct agricultural water reforms and enhance food security.

Carbon decoupling effects of energy consumption permit trading schemes: Evidence from China

As a fundamental policy instrument for facilitating the profound transformation of China's energy sector, the carbon decoupling effect of the energy consumption permit trading scheme (ECPTS) is a crucial issue to be evaluated. This paper aimed to explore the carbon decoupling effect and mechanisms of China's ECPTS by utilizing the difference-in-differences (DID) estimator. The findings indicated that the ECPTS significantly enhanced the degree of carbon decoupling, and the dynamic effect tended to gradually expand this decoupling effect. This conclusion holds even after conducting several robustness tests. Moreover, heterogeneity is observed in the carbon decoupling effect of the ECPTS, with regions characterized by higher levels of economic development, lower carbon emissions, and higher resource endowments exhibiting more pronounced decoupling effects. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis revealed that the ECPTS primarily improves carbon decoupling through the optimization of the energy mix and the reduction of the energy use scale. Conversely, the role of industrial structure and technological innovation has yet to fully manifest. Consequently, it is imperative to continue promoting and refining the construction of the ECPTS market. Additionally, stimulating investment in optimizing industrial structures and fostering technological innovation, along with the formulation of regionally tailored policy measures, may propel the carbon decoupling effect of ECPTSs.

Examining the impact of environmental centralization on enterprise total factor productivity through a quasi-natural experiment conducted in China

This paper explores the effects and influence mechanisms of environmental centralization on enterprise technological progress and productivity in China. Taking the reform of vertical environmental governance (VEG) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper compares the differences in total factor productivity (TFP) of enterprises in environmental centralization regions and environmental decentralization regions by adopting the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method. The empirical results show that: (1) The average TFP of enterprises in the environmental centralization areas is 0.0598 higher than that in the environmental decentralization areas, and this average effect increases with the extension of the reform duration. (2) Environmental centralization strengthens government intervention in environmental issues. The improvement in the intensity of environmental regulation and the willingness of firm green innovation are the intermediate causes of the improvement in enterprise TFP. (3) VEG’s effect is heterogeneous regarding regional development, industry type, and enterprise characteristics. This study has empirical implications for further refining the fiscal system to leverage the role of public finance on environmental governance and enterprise development.

Impact of digital infrastructure construction on financial development: Evidence from the “broadband China” Strategy

The “Broadband China” has enabled China to achieve leapfrog development in the construction of its high-speed broadband networks, thereby accelerating the development of digital infrastructure and unleashing the potential for financial sector growth. This has created a strong impetus for economy to shift towards high-quality development. An in-depth understanding of the empirical correlation between the development of digital infrastructure and financial progress is absent, leaving an unexplored domain of research concerning the impact of the “Broad China” strategy on financial agglomeration (Finagg), financial scale (Finscal), and digital finance (Digfina). In order to evaluate the dynamic impacts of this policy on financial development, this research builds a multi-period difference in differences (DID) model using panel data from 269 prefecture-level cities between 2011 and 2020. The study concludes that the “Broadband China” policy significantly fosters the growth of Finagg, Finscal, and Digfina, in China, and found that the “Broadband China” policy has a significant impact on the regional heterogeneity of financial agglomeration and digital finance. There are significant variations in the effects of this policy on different regions, while the regional heterogeneity differences in the impact on financial scale are relatively small. Additionally, the three mediating variables of technological innovation, fund support, and talent agglomeration play a mediating role in the mechanism of digital infrastructure on financial development.

Can the separation of marketing authorization from manufacturing authorization stimulate pharmaceutical innovation? Evidence from China's pharmaceutical industry reform

Using data from A-share pharmaceutical manufacturing listed companies between 2011 and 2021, this paper constructs a difference in differences (DID) model to systematically analyze the impact of China's Marketing Authorization Holder (MAH) system pilot policy on pharmaceutical enterprise innovation. Our findings indicate that implementing the MAH system can significantly stimulate innovation in pharmaceutical enterprises, both in terms of input and output. Additionally, local intellectual property protection positively moderates the incentive effect of MAH system on pharmaceutical innovation. The results of our heterogeneity analysis further demonstrate that the pilot policy of the MAH system exerts a stronger incentive effect on the innovation behavior of non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises in the growth and mature stage. Moreover, we provide evidence for the long-term impact of MAH system on innovation within pharmaceutical companies.

How does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) affect economic growth? Evidence from developing countries

Although there is no consensus on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth, much of the economic literature suggests that natural resource abundance negatively affects economic growth in developing countries, leading to the resource curse theory. This situation led the international community to create the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in 2003 to promote the effective contribution of natural resources to economic growth through a process involving governments, extractive industries, and civil society. Considering 99 developing countries from 1995 to 2019 and applying recent heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences (DID) estimators, we find a positive and statistically significant relationship between EITI implementation and economic growth. Several robustness checks support this result. Most interestingly, the analysis of EITI’s dynamic effects reveals that these effects occur only in the short and medium terms. In addition, we tested several potential transmission channels and identified the increase in foreign direct investment and the rise in resource revenue as the main transmission channels. Moreover, we postulate and investigate four possible explanations behind the EITI’s mixed results on long-term growth: the lack of evidence of a negative relationship between natural resource abundance and long-term economic growth over the study period, a possible increasing reliance on non-resource taxes, a possible signaling effect targeted by member countries, and the lack of effect of EITI implementation on reducing corruption. Finally, the document provides economic policy recommendations for better governance in the management of natural resources in order to increase their contribution to development financing. Furthermore, improving governance in managing critical minerals is vital to avoid a “new curse of critical minerals”.

Impact and Spatial Effect of Government Environmental Policy on Forestry Eco-Efficiency—Examining China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy

Can government environmental policy harmonize environmental protection with economic output? We explore this issue from the perspective of forestry eco-efficiency, using China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy (NECP), an environmental policy promulgated by the government of China, as the subject of this study. The study introduces forestry eco-efficiency as an indicator to assess the balance between economic development in the forestry sector and environmental conservation. The indicator, grounded in sustainable development theory, employs a super-efficiency SBM model that includes undesirable outputs to evaluate efficiency. Additionally, we empirically analyze the impact of NECP on forestry eco-efficiency by using the difference-in-difference (DID) model with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Ultimately, we analyze the effects of spatial spillover by employing the spatial Durbin model (SDM). Our study yields the following conclusions. (1) In this paper, through hotspot clustering analysis, forestry eco-efficiency in each province is categorized into three categories: effective, semi-effective and ineffective. Our findings suggest that China’s average forestry eco-efficiency falls into the ineffective category, highlighting the need to optimize resource allocation within the sector. (2) NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency, with robust findings across various stability tests. Thus, implementing government environmental policies can have a multiplier effect on forestry, i.e., it can synergize its economic development with environmental protection. (3) In provinces with a strong ecological foundation, the NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency. However, in other provinces, the improvement is only moderate. Furthermore, while the NECP has a substantial positive impact in the eastern region, it has yet to show a discernible effect in other regions. (4) The positive impacts of NECP implementation on forestry eco-efficiency have spatial spillover effects due to demonstration effects and comparative advantages.

Interaction effects of market-based and incentive-driven low-carbon policies on carbon emissions

It is imperative to address global climate change through the formulation and implementation of low-carbon policies. While existing research predominantly analyzes individual policy impacts, this research adopts a Propensity Score Matching (PSM)-weighted Difference-in-Differences (DID) strategy, integrated with an innovative policy-matching methodology, to systematically examine the interaction effects between market-based constraint low-carbon policies and incentive-driven guiding low-carbon policies. The empirical findings underscore substantial positive interaction effects resulting from the combined implementation of these policy types. Even after meticulous control for the individual policies, the amalgamation yields a notable additional emission reduction effect of 0.0571%. This effect further intensifies, reaching 0.132%, when exclusively considering the joint impact of these policies, while robustness is maintained across varied weighting schemes. Moreover, the study elucidates the pivotal role of green innovation as a complete mediator in this synergy, with industrial restructure contributing 18.49% to the overall mediation effect. Despite the ostensibly weak constraints imposed by Low-Carbon City Pilots, the confluence of policies significantly amplifies the emission reduction effects of the Emission Trading Scheme and bolsters the impetus for green innovation. Ultimately, this study not only advances collaborative perspectives on policy effect identification but also offers valuable insights into the combined efficacy of diverse low-carbon policies.

The impact of sustainable development policy for resource-based cities on green technology innovation: Firm-level evidence from China

The sustainable development policy targeting resource-based cities (RBC) is a critical measure initiated by China's government to transform these cities. Green technology innovation (GTI) has surfaced as a pivotal route in achieving sustainable development in RBCs. However, whether implementing this policy can induce GTI remains underexplored. To fill this gap, exploiting the National Plan for Sustainable Development of Resource-based Cities (2013–2020) (NPSDRC) as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ the difference-in-differences (DID) method to examine the influence of NPSDRC on corporate GTI and potential mechanisms. We observe that NPSDRC significantly reduces the GTI of RBC enterprises. Mechanism analysis reveals that NPSDRC escalates environmental governance costs and decreases R&D investment, impeding corporate GTI. Meanwhile, our findings suggest that providing more bank loans and tax incentives could weaken this adverse effect on corporate GTI. Heterogeneity results indicate that non-SOEs, enterprises with weak financing capabilities, enterprises with long-sighted vision, and high energy consumption enterprises are more susceptible to the influence of NPSDRC. This study offers empirical evidence for countries seeking to employ policies to drive the transformation of RBCs.

Intelligent manufacturing and green innovation: Quasi-natural evidence from China

Intelligent manufacturing is an important driving force for improving quality and efficiency and promoting green innovation. Based on the data of Chinese listed companies and taking the Chinese intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration projects as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper constructs a difference-in-differences (DID) model to explore the effect and mechanism of intelligent manufacturing on enterprise green innovation. The results show that intelligent manufacturing has significantly promoted green innovation in China, and this effect is still valid after considering various robustness tests. Heterogeneity analysis shows that in areas with a good green development foundation and poor information infrastructure, the impact is more obvious. In non-state-owned enterprises and mature enterprises, the impact is more obvious. Mechanism analysis indicates that intelligent manufacturing enhances green innovation through cost management effects, efficiency improvement effects, and employment structure optimization effects. The conclusions provide clear policy implications for developing countries to promote intelligent manufacturing practices and green high-quality development.

Trade policy uncertainty and capacity utilisation rate: Firm‐level evidence from China's WTO accession

AbstractThis paper was one of the first to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) reduction on Chinese firm capacity utilisation rate from the perspective of trade policy variation. Based on a quasi‐natural experiment of the implementation of Permanent Normal Trade Relation (PNTR) after China's WTO accession, this paper adopts the difference‐in‐difference (DID) method to conduct empirical analysis, and finds that reduction in TPU significantly raises firm capacity utilisation rate. The mechanism tests show that export expansion is an important channel through which reduction in TPU raises firm capacity utilisation rate, especially for firms exporting to the United States; reduction in TPU also raises firm capacity utilisation rate through the improvement of production efficiency; in addition, reduction in TPU raises firm capacity utilisation rate along the downstream linkages, whereas the effect of the upstream linkages is insignificant. Finally, this paper takes a step further to conduct empirical analysis at industry level, the results show that reduction in TPU also significantly raises manufacturing aggregate capacity utilisation rate, and the improvement of resource reallocation efficiency (especially the exit of the firms with backward production capacity) plays an important role. Our study was helpful to understand the driving forces of the changes in Chinese manufacturing capacity utilisation rate in recent years, and it also provides new ideas for solving over‐capacity.

Effects of a cafeteria-based sustainable diet intervention on the adherence to the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet and greenhouse gas emissions of consumers: a quasi-experimental study at a large German hospital

SummaryBackgroundSustainable diets contribute to improving human health and reducing food-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Here, we established the effects of a facility-based sustainable diet intervention on the adherence to the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet and GHGE of consumers.MethodsIn this quasi-experiment, vegan menus and educational material on sustainable diets were provided in the largest cafeteria of a German hospital for 3 months. Regular customers (> 1/week) in this cafeteria (intervention group) and in all other hospital cafeterias (control group) completed a questionnaire about their sociodemographic and dietary characteristics before and after the intervention period. We calculated difference-in-differences (DID), their 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and p-values for the adherence to the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI; 0–42 score points) and food-related GHGE. The protocol was registered at the German Clinical Trial Register (reference: DRKS00032620).FindingsIn this study population (N = 190; age range: 18–79 years; women: 67%; highest level of formal education: 63%), the mean baseline PHDI (25·1 ± 4·8 vs. 24·7 ± 5·8 points) and the mean baseline GHGE (3·3 ± 0·8 vs. 3·3 ± 0·7 kg CO2-eq./d) were similar between the intervention (n = 92) and the control group (n = 98). The PHDI increase was 0·6 points (95% CI: -0·4, + 1·6) higher in the intervention group than in the control group. This trend was stronger among frequent consumers of the vegan menu than among rare and never consumers. No between-group difference was seen for GHGE changes (DID: 0·0; 95% CI: -0·2, + 0·1 kg CO2-eq./d).InterpretationPending verification in a longer-term project and a larger sample, this quasi-experiment in a big hospital in Germany suggests that offering vegan menus and information material in the cafeteria enhances the adherence to healthy and environmentally friendly diets among regular customers. These findings argue for making sustainable food choices the default option and for improving nutrition literacy.FundingFederal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), Else-Kröner-Fresenius Foundation (EKFS), Robert-Bosch Foundation (RBS).

Impact of the targeted poverty alleviation policy on older adults’ healthcare utilization: A quasi-experimental analysis from China

China implemented the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) policy in 2015 to fight against poverty. In order to assess the health performance of the TPA policy, this study aims to evaluate the impact of the TPA policy on healthcare utilization among older adults who normally have higher vulnerability to poverty and diseases. Drawing on data from four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we investigated the impact of the TPA policy on older individuals' outpatient and inpatient utilization using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach. In total, 5285 older respondents were incorporated into a final sample. The results indicated that the implementation of the TPA policy had a significantly positive impact on increasing inpatient care utilization for poor older adults. However, its impact on outpatient service utilization was not significant. To ensure that the increased level of inpatient care utilization was not caused by deteriorating health status, we further analyzed the impact of the TPA policy on poor older adults’ health outcomes. Results indicated that the TPA policy improved self-rated health and reduced the number of ADL limitations among older adults in registered poor households. The positive impact of the TPA policy on inpatient care utilization was found to be most beneficial for older adults in poor households who were female, coupled, and aged 70 years and above. The TPA policy in China improved healthcare access for economically disadvantaged older adults and contributed to the enhancement of their health outcomes. This evidence may have broad implications for other low- and middle-income countries aiming to reduce poverty and achieve health equity.

Green spillover effect of human capital growth—Evidence from the PM enrollment expansion

This paper examines the impact of human capital on corporate green innovation. We exploit an expanded professional master enrollment program in China that resulted in a surge in staff with professional master's degrees (SPM) and use a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach to address the potential endogeneity. We find that green patents in firms belonging to human capital-dependent industries increase significantly after SPM enters the labor market. Environmental awareness and green investment are two plausible potential mechanisms. We further find this effect is more pronounced in firms with state-owned equity, and higher employee care. Our study highlights an important but unanticipated benefit arising from the accumulation of human capital.

Stock market liberalization and corporate environmental violations: quasi-natural experiment from stock connect in China

Purpose This paper aims to reveal the green governance role played by stock connect in transition economies from the perspective of corporates’ environmental violations and provides implications for the coordination and optimization of subsequent stock market liberalization and green transformation policies in pursuit of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Design/methodology/approach With the data of Chinese listed enterprises, this paper takes the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect or Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in China as a quasi-natural experiment and applies the multi-period difference-in-difference (DID) model to identify the impact of stock market liberalization on the corporates’ environmental violations. Findings The findings reveal that the stock market liberalization significantly restrains the corporates’ environmental violations. These findings are robust to a series of sensitivity tests, including excluding two-way effects, adjusting the year of policy implementation, replacing the core variables, introducing the regional fixed effects and excluding the interference effect of other relevant policies during the sample period. Furthermore, the stock market liberalization is beneficial for upgrading information disclosure quality, improving internal governance capability, strengthening environmental protection incentives, and thus restrains corporates’ environmental violations. Meanwhile, heterogeneity tests show that the inhibitory effects are more significant in those grouped samples which is large scale, state-owned nature, located in eastern region, with poor evaluation performances and heavy tax burden. Originality/value We make two marginal contributions to the current literature. First, this paper enriches the literature on the factors influencing corporate environmental violations by focusing on how the macro-level financial policy influences the micro-level corporate environmental violations. One the one hand, prior studies mainly focused on the consequences of corporate environmental violations; however, there is still a puzzle that the effect of stock market liberalization cannot be fully justified to influence corporate environmental violations. The findings help explain this puzzle by examining that stock market liberalization can restrain corporate environmental violations. Moreover, prior studies mainly focused on corporate share price (Yunsen Chen et al., 2022), market liquidity (Han Kim and Singal, 2000), information disclosure (Liang, Lin, and Chin 2012), corporate governance (Bae and Goyal, 2010) and corporate violations (Lingyun Xiong et al., 2021), but not on corporate environmental violations. We assume that the suppression effect of stock market liberalization on corporate environmental violations can help reduce corporate environmental violations, improve corporates’ awareness of environmental compliance. Second, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the literature on stock market liberalization by investigating the restraining effect of Stock Connect on corporate environmental violations from the perspective of information channel, corporate governance channel and motivation channel, which is of practical significance. Moreover, we investigate the differences in the inhibitory effects of stock market liberalization on different enterprises' environmental violations, from firm size, property rights, enterprise assessment results, tax burden to geographical location, which is conducive to the construction of a green financial system and the promotion of sustainable economic development. Our results show that firms which are large scale, state-owned nature, located in eastern region, with poor evaluation performances and heavy tax burden tend to compliance with environmental laws. These findings emphasize the importance and benefits of Stock Connect.

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Corporate Environmental Investment: Competition or Cooperation?

China is currently in a crucial phase of establishing a new domestic and international “dual circulation”, and a new model of sustainable development. OFDI and environmental investment play significant roles in both external and internal economic cycles. In this study, we constructed a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, using data from listed companies in China from 2008 to 2022, to analyze how OFDI impacts domestic environmental investment and its underlying mechanism. The findings demonstrated that OFDI can significantly reduce the environmental investment made by domestic enterprises. There exists a capital competition relationship between these two activities due to financing constraints, although OFDI can mitigate environmental issues by reducing pollution emissions and promoting industrial structure upgrading within the home country, resulting in savings on environmental investments. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that the negative impact of OFDI on environmental investment is primarily observed in non-state-owned enterprises, firms investing in developed countries, and those subject to strict environmental requirements imposed by host governments. This study explains the internal logic of China’s environmental investment reduction from the perspective of OFDI, deepens the study of the environmental consequences of OFDI, broadens the applicable boundaries of the theory of OFDI’s impact on environmental investment, and provides insights for the government to establish a high-level opening-up pattern and address the dilemma of environmental governance.

“Pets make you spend more!” Impact of pet ownership on consumer purchase decisions

Pet ownership has become increasingly popular, making it important to understand whether and how it affects consumers’ purchase decisions. Using pet ownership as an exogenous shock, we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) method with propensity score matching (PSM) to estimate the effect of pet ownership on consumers’ purchases. We find that pet ownership increases purchases. A laboratory experiment reveals that this effect is induced by enhanced subjective well-being, which boosts impulsive hedonic purchases. Moreover, two follow-up studies show that higher level of emotional support from pet positively affects consumers’ subjective well-being, thus leading to increased purchases. This research is among the first to empirically examine how pet ownership affects consumer purchases. It contributes to understanding subjective well-being, impulsive purchases, and the emotional support pet provides. The findings offer valuable implications for retailers on incorporating pets into marketing and provide insights for e-commerce platforms to optimize personalized recommendation algorithms to boost purchases.

Can Mega Sporting Events Promote Urban Green Transformation? Evidence from China

With the adoption of the concept of sustainable development, mega sports events (MSEs) are gradually aiming to be greener and to lower their carbon footprints. As such, does the hosting of MSEs provide an opportunity for urban green transformation? Taking MSEs in China as a quasi-natural experiment and using prefecture-level panel data from 2000 to 2020, we empirically explored the effects and mechanisms of MSE hosting on the green economic development in urban areas by applying a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The findings revealed that the hosting of MSEs can significantly increase the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of the host city, indicating that MSEs promote the green transformation of urban areas. The results of the mechanism analysis showed that hosting MSEs promotes urban green transformation through three channels: encouraging residents to choose public transport, promoting the development of the digital economy, and upgrading of the industrial structure. In addition, the effect of hosting MSEs on green transformation is stronger in cities where the public is more concerned about the environment. We argue that host city governments should implement the concept of green sports when organizing MSEs, increase public concern about the environment, focus on the development of urban public services, and vigorously develop tertiary industries to drive urban green transformations.

Can ESG Ratings Suppress Corporate Financialization?

Corporate financialization represents a significant aspect of the shift from a real to a virtual economy. Curtailing financialization behavior in corporations is essential for fostering a sustainable and robust real economy. ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) ratings, as an emerging evaluative system, are increasingly influencing corporate governance and investment decisions, potentially mitigating the drive towards corporate financialization. This study utilizes panel data from Chinese listed companies between 2008 and 2021 and applies a multi-period DID (Difference-in-Differences) methodology to empirically examine the impact of ESG ratings on corporate financialization levels. The findings reveal that ESG ratings significantly inhibit corporate financialization. This conclusion is reinforced by parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and PSM-DID robustness checks. Further analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of ESG ratings on financialization is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and companies located in eastern regions. This research provides new insights into the influence of ESG ratings on corporate behavior, offering empirical evidence and reference for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable corporate practices and curb financialization.

Do government resource management policies influence green productivity? New perspectives from fintech and digital resource policy in China

Achieving sustainable development necessitates the exploration of innovative approaches towards low-carbon development and efficient resource management. By adopting the low-carbon city pilot project as a policy shock of Government Resource Management Policies (GRMP), we aim to scrutinize the nuanced impacts of GRMP on green productivity (GTFP). Using the difference-in-difference (DID) approach and panel data from 280 cities in China. Our findings reveal a significant relationship between GRMP and GTFP. In the immediate short-term, GRMP exhibits a negative effect on GTFP growth, followed by a long-term positive promoting effect. A detailed temporal analysis uncovers an “inverted N″ time-period effect of GRMP on GTFP growth. Further exploration into the mechanisms driving this influence reveals three key aspects: the reduction of natural resources consumption and the promotion of low-carbon production (LCP), low-carbon transportation (LCT), and low-carbon industries (LCI). While the regulated effect of financial technology resources on the relationship between GRMP and GTFP is positive but statistically insignificant, the regulated effect of digital resource policy emerges as positive and significant. Additionally, the regulated effect of mineral and forest resource coverage rate is positive but not statistically significant in the context of the influence of GRMP on GTFP. This comprehensive analysis contributes to our understanding of the dynamic interplay between policy interventions, resource management, and sustainable development in the Chinese urban landscape.