Land Use Development Research Articles

Simulation of Land-Use Changes Using the Partitioned ANN-CA Model and Considering the Influence of Land-Use Change Frequency

Land-use change is a typical geographic evolutionary process characterized by spatial heterogeneity. As such, the driving factors, conversion rules, and rate of change vary for different regions around the world. However, most cellular automata (CA) models use the same transition rules for all cells in the model space when simulating land-use change. Thus, spatial heterogeneity change is ignored in the model, which means that these models are prone to over- or under simulation, resulting in a large deviation from reality. An effective means of accounting for the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the quality of the CA model is to establish a partitioned model based on cellular space partitioning. This study established a partitioned, dual-constrained CA model using the area-weighted frequency of land-use change (AWFLUC) to capture its spatial heterogeneity. This model was used to simulate the land-use evolution of the Dianchi Lake watershed. First, the CA space was divided into subzones using a dual-constrained spatial clustering method. Second, an artificial neural network (ANN) was used to automatically acquire conversion rules to construct an ANN-CA model of land-use change. Finally, land-use changes were simulated using the ANN-CA model based on data from 2006 to 2016, and model reliability was validated. The experimental results showed that compared with the non-partitioned CA model, the partitioned counterpart was able to improve the accuracy of land-use change simulation significantly. Furthermore, AWFLUC is an important indicator of the spatial heterogeneity of land-use change. The shapes of the division spaces were more similar to reality and the simulation accuracy was higher when AWFLUC was considered as a land-use change characteristic.

What Drives Farm Structural Change? An Analysis of Economic, Demographic and Succession Factors

The evolution of farm size and land use are important determinants of the efficiency and profitability of agriculture and the configuration of the territory. In this paper, a conceptual framework of the evolution of the number of farms and land use is presented, arguing that a major determinant of the change in the number of farms is the presence or absence of successors to ageing farmers and that these socio-demographic variables shape the evolution of the sector in terms of farm size, while they do not significantly affect the changes in the farmed area. This hypothesis was empirically tested with data drawn from individual farm records of the Italian Agricultural Censuses of 2000 and 2010—aggregated at the municipality level for an Italian region—by estimating regressions on the decrease rates of the number of farms, the utilised agricultural area and the total agricultural area. The results support the conclusion that the change in the number of farms was largely determined by the absence of successors in family farms and by the average operators’ age, unlike the change in the farmed area, for which natural land conditions were the main drivers.

Land use regression modelling of community noise in São Paulo, Brazil

Noise pollution has negative health consequences, which becomes increasingly relevant with rapid urbanization. In low- and middle-income countries research on health effects of noise is hampered by scarce exposure data and noise maps. In this study, we developed land use regression (LUR) models to assess spatial variability of community noise in the Western Region of São Paulo, Brazil.We measured outdoor noise levels continuously at 42 homes once or twice for one week in the summer and the winter season. These measurements were integrated with various geographic information system variables to develop LUR models for predicting average A-weighted (dB(A)) day-evening-night equivalent sound levels (Lden) and night sound levels (Lnight). A supervised mixed linear regression analysis was conducted to test potential noise predictors for various buffer sizes and distances between home and noise source. Noise exposure levels in the study area were high with a site average Lden of 69.3 dB(A) ranging from 60.3 to 82.3 dB(A), and a site average Lnight of 59.9 dB(A) ranging from 50.7 to 76.6 dB(A). LUR models had a good fit with a R2 of 0.56 for Lden and 0.63 for Lnight in a leave-one-site-out cross validation. Main predictors of noise were the inverse distance to medium roads, count of educational facilities within a 400 m buffer, mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within a 100 m buffer, residential areas within a 50 m (Lden) or 25 m (Lnight) buffer and slum areas within a 400 m buffer. Our study suggests that LUR modelling with geographic predictor data is a promising and efficient approach for noise exposure assessment in low- and middle-income countries, where noise maps are not available.

Modeling Complexity of Urban Land use and Transportation In Semarang City

The development of urban areas will increase the travel demand of its population. Travel demand is often associated with the type of activity indicated by the type of land use. Travel demand can be predicted with developments in land use. The development of increasingly complex land uses will result in higher trip generation, so we need a model that can be used to estimate trip generation. The research objective is to understand the relationship between trip generation and travel attraction as a travel request with land use characteristics in the city of Semarang. The method used is spatial regression using variables Y (trip generation), X1 (housing area), X2 (trade area), X3 (industrial area), X4 (office area) and X5 (education area). All data uses spatial units in the kelurahan. Spatial regression results indicate that the movement in the city of Semarang is strongly influenced by housing activities, trade activities and offices. Industrial and educational activities make less significant contribution. The mathematical model of spatial regression of population movements in the city of Semarang can be denoted as follows Y = 626,41 + 28,69X1 + 0,06X2 + 5,49X3-18,84X4-10,71X5.

Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services Value Changes and Its Implication for Sustainability Development Goals

This study quantified the effect of future land use/ land cover changes on ecosystem service values under different scenarios in Mekelle city region for the year 2030. The study utilized land use/land cover changes data of the year 2019 and predicted LULC changes for the year 2030. Identification of the driving forces, was the most important step in predicting the future LULC and was performed using the cellular automata models in CLUDMondo which is a future land use simulation model by coupling human and the natural effects. Scenarios were made under business as usual, implementation of PES schemes and spatial planning. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services value will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2019, whereas under spatial planning scenario, the ecosystem service value will increase by 5.2%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem service value in future. Therefore, special attention should be given to the rehabilitation of ecosystems, the protection of the remaining natural vegetation and water bodies. Overall, these results provide useful inputs to planners to adopt eco-friendly policies to achieve sustainable development goals. Keywords: Scenario, ecosystem service, value, land use/land change, sustainable development goals DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/75-04 Publication date: May 31 st 2021

Coordinated Development of Urban Land Use and Ecological Economics in China

To analyze the coordination between land use and the ecological economy in China, ecoefficiency and land use intensity were measured using the nonradial, nonoriented slacks-based measure (SBM) and the vertical and horizontal scatter degree method. The TOPSIS method was then used to comprehensively evaluate regional differences in coordination. Our research indicates that the level of coordinated development between intensive urban land use and the ecological economy in China showed an overall upward trend from 2006 to 2017. The level of coordination was high in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin and was low in Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. Changes in ecoefficiency were not consistent with the degree of coordination, and intensive urban land use was positively correlated with the level of coordination, which showed a mutually reinforcing relationship. Improving ecoefficiency is necessary for intensive urban land use, and for ecological improvement, coordinated development between ecoefficiency and urban land use intensity is essential. The establishment of environmentally friendly land use patterns could promote urban land use.

Appraisal of groundwater recharge in Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) using geospatial water balance technique

Water availability is important for survival of millions of people living in the Himalayan region of Upper Indus Basin and adequate monitoring system is for better water resources management. In the present study, groundwater recharge appraisals in the Neelum watershed (Upper Indus Basin) were investigated by using water balance and geospatial modeling techniques on monthly time-scale climate data from 1989 to 2015. Results demonstrated that on an average out of total annual rainfall (i.e., 2028 mm), about 46% of the rainfall convert to surface runoff and 35% loss to atmosphere via evapo-transpiration (ET), while the remaining 18% contribute to infiltrate the groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge enhanced during snow-melt from December to March and the rainfall infiltration increased during July and August months. Similarly, the infiltration ranges 106–177 mm from January to March and 45–51 mm from December to July. The groundwater discharge in the form of oozing from the spring occurred during the remaining six months, which ultimately contributed to the baseflow of the stream. Findings from the study revealed variations in groundwater recharge during the years and hence recommended more hydrological studies to predict future changes in climate and land use for sustainable development of freshwater resources in the Upper Indus Basin.

Measurements of NOx and Development of Land Use Regression Models in an East-African City

Air pollution causes premature mortality and morbidity globally, but these adverse health effects occur over proportionately in low- and middle-income countries. Lack of both air pollution data and knowledge of its spatial distribution in African countries have been suggested to lead to an underestimation of health effects from air pollution. This study aims to measure nitrogen oxides (NOx), as well as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), to develop Land Use Regression (LUR) models in the city of Adama, Ethiopia. NOx and NO2 was measured at over 40 sites during six days in both the wet and dry seasons. Throughout the city, measured mean levels of NOx and NO2 were 29.0 µg/m3 and 13.1 µg/m3, respectively. The developed LUR models explained 68% of the NOx variances and 75% of the NO2. Both models included similar geographical predictor variables (related to roads, industries, and transportation administration areas) as those included in prior LUR models. The models were validated by using leave-one-out cross-validation and tested for spatial autocorrelation and multicollinearity. The performance of the models was good, and they are feasible to use to predict variance in annual average NOx and NO2 concentrations. The models developed will be used in future epidemiological and health impact assessment studies. Such studies may potentially support mitigation action and improve public health.

Егалітарна та ринкова земельні реформи у контексті суспільного добробуту і базових прав людини

Based on the generalization and analysis of modern scientific and applied approaches and real results of land transformations in the last century in transition economies, the article reveals the essence of the nature of market and egalitarian land reforms, as well as their goals and general economic results. Egalitarian reform has as its main priority a rapid reduction of rural poverty and development of the new landowners’ skills to build their potential for its implementation in the general societal context. Market-oriented land reform aims at economic efficiency of the market based allocation of resources to ensure the growth of export-oriented agricultural production. Egalitarian land reform focuses on human and the realization of his or her basic rights, while market land reform focuses on the economy. Empirical data on land reforms in China show that their egalitarian nature was based on the creation of a society with equal opportunities of its members in the management of and access to land resources and material benefits obtained from them, and on ensuring a wide spread of the benefits from rural growth in society as a whole. Currently, China is the only country in the world that progressed from a "country of low human development" in 1990 to a "country of high human development" in 2018. The author proves that the purpose of land reform cannot be primitivized to a simple division of land into plots for transfer to private ownership based on free market turnover. Guaranteeing basic human rights and achieving public welfare from a land reform are achieved not only via obtaining land in private ownership, but also via supporting these acts with a fair distribution of control over the production process. Imposing on society a pseudo-scientific concept that land is a commodity that, like an apartment, mobile phone or bag of feed, can be freely bought and sold on market at open auctions, which will consolidate the country's economic power would inevitably lead to even greater income polarization, violation of basic human rights and, consequently, to social confrontations and significant social upheavals. The publication was prepared within research project on "Spatial justice in land use for sustainable development of rural areas" (State Registration No 0121U108142).

Main trends and problems of spatial development of agricultural land use and land tenure in the Non-Chernozem Economic Zone of Russia

The article sets out the main goals, objectives and priorities of the spatial development of agricultural land use and land tenure in the territories of the Non-Black Earth Economic Zone. The principles, main directions and scenarios of the spatial development of agricultural land use are given. The greatest attention is paid to the mechanisms of spatial development of agricultural land use.

Investigation of environmental and land use influence on watershed bacterial contamination using E. coli quantification and 16s identification

Wheeling Creek in the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia was monitored for fecal indicator bacterium Escherichia coli (E. coli). Since Wheeling Creek is used recreationally, elevated fecal coliform levels pose potential human health risks including gastrointestinal or respiratory illness. The current study included 12 sites spanning 18 stream km. For each site, weekly or bi-weekly bacteria samples were collected from the water column and water chemistry parameters were recorded. Seasonal trends in bacterial contamination and correlations with site parameters including rainfall, water chemistry, and land use were recorded. Additionally, monthly water samples from each site were enriched for coliform bacteria, amplified using 16s rRNA primers, and sequenced using Oxford Nanopore’s Flongle technology. Metagenomic analysis was used to determine patterns in the microbial community and note correlations between indicator bacteria and pathogens. Concentration of E. coli regularly exceeded the USEPA recommendation of 235 CFU/100 mL at many sites. Two sites averaged over 3,000 CFU/100 mL, while five sites averaged less than 126 CFU/100 mL. Development in the watershed correlated with E. coli concentration. Within the water chemistry parameters measured, turbidity, rainfall, pH, and temperature were the best predictors of site-level E. coli concentration, while pH, temperature, and percent developed land use were the best predictors of watershed E. coli levels. Collectively, these data can elucidate human health risk and inform remediation efforts in the Wheeling Creek watershed. This research was made possible by NASA West Virginia Space Grant Consortium, NASA Agreement # # 80NSSC20M0055, and the Wheeling Water Pollution Control Dept.

Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective

Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion.

Evaluation of Environmental Naturalness: A Case Study in the Tietê-Jacaré Hydrographic Basin, São Paulo, Brazil

The connection between humanity and nature has an organizational impact on land use/land, often changing landscapes’ patterns. In this context, our study aims to analyze the changes in the landscape structure of the Tietê-Jacaré watershed, São Paulo state, Brazil, in 2007 and 2017, through the urbanity index. The landscape analysis described the temporal landscape patterns resulting from the influence of anthropogenic processes. This approach assumes that the environmental impacts are associated with the vulnerability of land use components. The urbanity index was utilized to analyze the landscape sustainability conditions in response to anthropogenic influence. We observed a reduction in vegetation areas (2.72%), representing 32,149 ha, followed by an expansion of crops (2.05%, 24,507.53 ha) and, as a result, a reduction of the landscape environmental quality with a growth of the areas with anthropic intervention. The development of anthropic activities, land use, and land cover changes could compromise the region’s ecosystems negatively, e.g., through effects on soils that provide sustenance vegetation and afford energy for terrestrial life. The urbanity index expressed the conservation and natural state of the landscape studied. It is presented as an essential tool for diagnosing the environment and for the conservation of the ecosystem, allowing precise analysis of landscape elements and enabling accurate analysis of each fragment of the landscape.

The application of land use regression model to investigate spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 in Guangzhou, China: Implications for the public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction.

Understanding the intra-city variation of PM2.5 is important for air quality management and exposure assessment. In this study, to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PM2.5 in Guangzhou, we developed land use regression (LUR) models using data from 49 routine air quality monitoring stations. The R2, adjust R2 and 10-fold cross validation R2 for the annual PM2.5 LUR model were 0.78, 0.72 and 0.66, respectively, indicating the robustness of the model. In all the LUR models, traffic variables (e.g., length of main road and the distance to nearest ancillary) were the most common variables in the LUR models, suggesting vehicle emission was the most important contributor to PM2.5 and controlling vehicle emissions would be an effective way to reduce PM2.5. The predicted PM2.5 exhibited significant variations with different land uses, with the highest value for impervious surfaces, followed by green land, cropland, forest and water areas. Guangzhou as the third largest city that PM2.5 concentration has achieved CAAQS Grade II guideline in China, it represents a useful case study city to examine the health and economic benefits of further reduction of PM2.5 to the lower concentration ranges. So, the health and economic benefits of reducing PM2.5 in Guangzhou was further estimated using the BenMAP model, based on the annual PM2.5 concentration predicted by the LUR model. The results showed that the avoided all cause mortalities were 992 cases (95% CI: 221-2140) and the corresponding economic benefits were 1478 million CNY (95% CI: 257-2524) (willingness to pay approach) if the annual PM2.5 concentration can be reduced to the annual CAAQS Grade I guideline value of 15μg/m3. Our results are expected to provide valuable information for further air pollution control strategies in China.

Building Agroforestry Policy Bottom-Up: Knowledge of Czech Farmers on Trees in Farmland

Czech agriculture is dealing with the consequences of climate change. Agroforestry cultures are being discursively reintroduced for better adaptability and resilience, with the first practical explorations seen in the field. Scholars have been working with farmers and regional stakeholders to establish a baseline for making agroforestry policy viable and sustainable. In a research effort that lasted three years, a large group of Czech farmers was interviewed via questionnaire surveys, standardized focus groups and in-depth personal interviews regarding their knowledge of agroforestry systems, their willingness to participate in these systems, and their concerns and expectations therewith. The information obtained helped the researchers gain better understanding of issues related to implementation of these systems. It was found that although trees are present on Czech farms and farmers appreciate their aesthetic and ecological landscape functions, knowledge about possible local synergies with crops and animals is lacking. This local knowledge gap, together with lack of market opportunities for the output of agroforestry systems and undeveloped administrative processes, have been identified as the greatest obstacles to the establishment of agroforestry systems. The researchers argue that the discovered cognitive and technological “lock-in” of the farmers may represent a risk to climate change adaptability and resilience. For the development of complex and localised land use (e.g., agroforestry) in such a context, the researchers suggest participative on-farm research, which would broaden the local knowledge base related to ecology and entrepreneurship.

Strategi pemberdayaan masyarakat Desa Tanjung Belit di sekitar Suaka Margasatwa Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Kabupaten Kampar Provinsi Riau

One of the problems faced in the management of conservation areas, including wildlife reserves, is the community activities in and around the area to meet their daily needs. They in general have traditionally carried on their traditional lives and most of them live at a very subsistence economic level. Therefore the success of the management of conservation areas including wildlife reserves is very dependent on the attitudes and support of the community both at the local and national level. Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve has been determined by the Government of the Republic of Indonesia through the Decree of the Minister of Forestry number SK.3977/Menhut-VII/KUH/2014 on May 23, 2014 with an area of 141,226.25 hectares (BBKSDA Riau, 2015). Tanjung Belit Village, Kampar Kiri Hulu Subdistrict, Kampar Regency is one of the villages bordering the Bukit Rimbang Hill Baling High School which has high public concern for the preservation of the forest, rivers and the surrounding environment. The people of Tanjung Belit Village have traditionally used natural resources in and around the Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve area to fulfill their daily needs by farming / gardening and collecting forest products and other river products. However, the availability of these forest and river resources, if taken continuously, will certainly decrease both in quality and quantity. While the necessities of life always increase along with the increasing population and the progress of the times. Therefore efforts should be made to the community and natural resources, so that the availability of natural resources and the necessities of life can be improved. This study aims to analyze the socio-economic conditions of the people of Tanjung Belit Village, identify the potential of Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve, formulate the Tanjung Belit Village community empowerment strategy around the Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve, Kampar Regency, Riau Province. The research approach used in this study is a quantitative approach to the survey method.he results showed the socio-economic conditions of the people of Tanjung Belit Village were still classified as poor and less skilled. However, local wisdom and a strong will to try to be a social capital in community empowerment. The potential of Bukit Rimbang Hill Bukit Baling has quite high potential from flora, fauna and nature tourism, but for the development of agricultural business is still limited due to the status of the wildlife reserve. The results of the study can be formulated a strategy of community empowerment in the village of Tanjung Belit around Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve; (a) optimize land use in agricultural business development; (b) encourage training activities to improve human resources in the context of community empowerment; (c) active community involvement in the management of the Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve area; (d) increasing cooperation support between the government and stakeholders in developing infrastructure supporting natural tourism around the Bukit Rimbang Bukit Baling Wildlife Reserve.

ЕКОЛОГІЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ВИКОРИСТАННЯ ЗЕМЕЛЬНИХ РЕСУРСІВ ЛІСОСТЕПОВОЇ ЗОНИ

The article reveals the essence of such concepts as “rational land use”, “ecologically safe land use”. In the process of the land reform implementation in Ukraine the land was given into possession, which due to the ground cover is degraded or unproductive, the use of which is economically unproductive and ecologically shady, which negatively affects the natural environment. Among the factors that cause degradation of soil, the most important are those associated with the use of land. The current state of agricultural landscapes of the forest-steppe zone in Kharkiv region is characterized by a significant increase in degraded ornamented land, which require scientifically based measures on their normal environmental use taking into account the formation of a stable development of land use and favorable living environment. This determines the relevance of scientific principles development for rehabilitation of degraded and unproductive lands. Analysis of the state of lands in the forest-steppe zone of Kharkiv region in the context of soil and ecological areas showed that in recent years their condition has historically deteriorated and has become threatening. This also applies to the soil cover, which has significantly lost its self-regulating properties. Water and wind erosion is the most influential factor in reducing the productivity of land resources. Proposals were made on the removal of degraded land from the composition of the land in individual administrative units of Kharkiv region and the need to carry out large-scale land management works to create ecologically stable and balanced agro-landscapes was outlined. Ecological modeling of land resources use in the forest-steppe zone of Kharkiv region should be considered as a system of measures aimed at creating their productive capacity through conservation, rehabilitation, transformation and regeneration of degraded and unproductive lands. The system of comprehensive environmental monitoring should be a tool that will help to detect depletion of natural resources and degradation of agricultural land, changes in the environment. Key words: land degradation, soil erosion, agrolandscapes, land conservation, ecological optimization, land monitoring.

Remote Sensing for Land Use Mapping, Case of The Study Area: Urban Commune of Saada, Morocco

The phenomenon of urban planning in favor of agricultural land on the outskirts of the city of Marrakech is in full expansion. The study of land use changes is of pivotal interest for the knowledge, management, monitoring, surveillance, and evaluation of our environment. Indeed, the city of Marrakech has been experiencing exponential population growth for several decades. This phenomenon has led to a dynamic urban characterized by the increase and densification of urbanized areas (e.g. buildings and infrastructures) which leads to the occupation of natural spaces. To this end, this study aims at highlighting the mapping and evolution of land use in the city of Marrakech from Landsat satellite image data (1989, 2005 and 2020) through the application of the Image classification using Machine Learning algorithms with the QGis Orfeo Toolbox, which facilitate the production of land use maps at three dates as well as an evolution map of the conurbation and also to quantify the obtained results. The directions of extension of the urban area were defined and thus demonstrate its impact on the agricultural land located in the peri-urban area.

An agent-based transportation impact sketch planning (TISP) model system

A traffic impact sketch planning (TISP) model is presented for the estimation of the likely travel demand generated by a major land-use development or redevelopment project. The proposed approach overcomes the problems with the non-behavioral transportation-related studies used in practice for assessing the development design impacts on the local transportation system. The architectural design of the development, in terms of the number and type of dwellings, by number of bedrooms per unit, and the land-use categories of the non-residential floorspace, are reflected in the TISP model through an integrated population and employment synthesis approach. The population synthesis enables the feasible deployment of an agent-based microsimulation (ABM) model system of daily activity and travel demand for a quick, efficient, and detailed assessment of the transportation impacts of a proposed neighborhood or development. The approach is not restricted to a certain type of dataset of the control variables for the geographic location of the development. Datasets for different geographic dimensions of the study area, with some common control variables, are merged and cascaded into a synthesized, disaggregate population of resident persons, households and jobs. The prototype implementation of the TISP model is for Waterfront Toronto’s Bayside Development Phase 2, using the operational TASHA-based GTAModel V4.1 ABM travel demand model system. While the conventional transportation studies focus on the assessment of the local traffic impacts in the immediate surroundings of the development, the TISP model investigates and assesses many transportation related impacts in the district, city, and region, for both residents and non-residents of the development. TISP model analysis includes the overall spatiotemporal trips distribution generated by the residents and non-residents of the development for the auto and non-auto mobility systems and the simulated agents diurnal peaking travel times. The model results are compared with the trips estimates by a prior project traffic impact study and the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (TGM) rates of weekday trips for the relevant land uses. Future extensions and improvements of the model including the generalization and full automation of the model, and the bi-level macro-micro representation of the transportation network are also discussed.

Evaluating the Impact of Mega-Sports Events on Urbanization Focusing on Land-Use Changes Using a Scenario-Based Model

Mega-sports events have a profound impact on promoting the urbanization process, optimizing the urban spatial structure, and improving the competitiveness of the host city. Taking the 19th Asian Games Hangzhou 2022 (AGH) as an example, we used remote sensing data and a scenario-based model to simulate land-use changes and developments from 2005 to 2025. By setting two scenarios, natural development and AGH-driven development, we explored the impact of AGH on urban development and its driving factors. The results show that (1) cultivated land areas decreased by 369.96 km2, while construction land areas increased by 488.33 km2 among the main land-use types in Hangzhou from 2005 to 2020. Urban areas quickly expanded with the West Lake as the center. (2) Urban sprawl intensity under the AGH-driven scenario is expected to increase by 0.91% compared to in the natural-development scenario, indicating that hosting AGH would accelerate the expansion of urban land, particularly in districts set with sports venues such as Binjiang, Xiaoshan, and Yuhang. The strategic trend of supporting the Qiantang River is obvious. (3) Under the influence of AGH, the centroid of urban construction land shifted towards the southeast, and the spatial direction was remarkable. The construction of venues and supporting facilities, and construction land for public rail transit, are the main direct driving forces of urban expansion. The AGH enhances the pace of urbanization, significantly altering the urban spatial structure and helping the city achieve a major transition from the West Lake Era to the Qiantang River Era. Furthermore, our research can provide insights into other cities that will host mega-sports events.