Development Scenarios Research Articles

Technology foresight in Indonesia: developing scenarios to determine electrical vehicle research priority for future innovation

Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine research areas that are most favorable in supporting the development and manufacturing of electric vehicle (EV) components locally in Indonesia for 2025–2035. Therefore, will provide direction for the formulation of the related government policies and programs. Consequently, an EV technology research priority must be identified. Design/methodology/approach A technology foresight (TF) procedure which consists of a STEEPV analysis, followed by scenarios development and expert elicitation techniques, was conducted to determine an EV technology research priority that may direct future specific local component innovations, and therefore businesses. Findings The results of this study indicate that research in a range of EV battery technologies, technologies relating to a variety of key components (to increase local content) and autonomous systems were important to support the local development and manufacturing of EV components in Indonesia. Research limitations/implications In this study, the scenarios development process was conducted based on selected available experts, mostly internally from BRIN. Some biased opinions may be present. Originality/value There have not been any TF studies regarding the development of EV technology research priority in Indonesia.

MODERN MARKETING TOOLKIT FOR ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY

Objective. The article is aimed at analyzing the possibilities of digital transformation and innovative marketing strategies to improve anti-crisis management in modern business in the conditions of an unstable economic environment. The success of modern business largely depends on its ability not only to respond to changes, but also to actively form its own strategic activities, including crisis management and strategic marketing. Method. This study uses a combined methodological approach to analyze the effectiveness of digital technologies and innovative marketing strategies in the context of crisis management. In particular, research methods included: decision-making method - for choosing marketing tools related to anti-crisis management and marketing innovations; empirical analysis - the use of quantitative data to assess the impact of digital tools on the productivity of enterprises during and after crisis periods; scenario analysis - development and testing of various scenarios for the implementation of digital technologies to simulate potential challenges and determine optimal strategies for adapting the enterprise to changing market conditions. The results. A comprehensive model of anti-crisis management using digital innovations and non-standard marketing strategies was developed and evaluated. The results showed that the integration of digital technologies initiates significant positive changes in the recovery and development of companies during and after the crisis. Scientific novelty. The authors proposed a new approach to the use of guerrilla marketing and jazz marketing in the context of crisis management. A methodical approach to evaluating the effectiveness of marketing innovations in the conditions of economic changes is proposed. Practical significance. These marketing strategies can be used to formulate anti-crisis management strategies in various industries, allowing enterprises to adapt and effectively respond to dynamic changes in the economic environment. Particular attention should be paid to the company's marketing system, which in anti-crisis management acts not only as a sales tool, but as a fundamental element of the enterprise's sustainability, which helps maintain viability and development even during economic shocks.

Impacts of Land Use Changes on Landscape Patterns and Ecosystem Service Values in Counties (Villages) in Ethnic Regions of China: A Case Study of Jianghua Yao Autonomous County, Hunan Province

This study, using Jianghua Yao Autonomous County in Hunan Province as a case, systematically analyzes the response of ecosystem service value (ESV) to land use and landscape pattern changes by employing landscape-level indices and landscape-type-level indices. The findings provide a reliable basis for scientifically formulating land use planning and ecological protection policies in ethnic regions, thereby promoting regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study reveals that (1) the land use structure in the county underwent significant changes between 2000 and 2020, with grassland and shrubland areas decreasing substantially by 71.66% and 78.41%, respectively, while urban and arable land areas increased significantly by 228.30% and 15.84%, respectively. Particularly under the scenario of prioritizing economic development, these changes led to increased landscape fragmentation and a decline in ecosystem service value (from CNY 296.571 billion in 2020 to CNY 287.959 billion in 2030). (2) In contrast, the scenarios of ecological protection and sustainable development significantly enhanced the region’s ecosystem service value by increasing forest and water area, effectively maintaining the stability of the landscape pattern. These findings provide important evidence for the formulation of scientifically sound land use planning and ecological protection policies, contributing to the dual goals of economic development, tourism growth and ecological protection in Jianghua Yao Autonomous County and similar regions.

Impact of urban spatial dynamics and blue-green infrastructure on urban heat islands: A case study of Guangzhou using Local Climate Zones and predictive modeling

Amidst mounting concerns regarding health risks associated with excessive carbon emissions, attention has turned to the heat mitigation ability of blue-green infrastructure (BGI). BGI offers heat mitigation through transpiration cooling, effectively countering the urban heat island (UHI) effect while facilitating energy conservation and carbon reduction. This study adopted the InVEST model to assess the spatial pattern of UHI and heat mitigation service based on the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification, along with quantifying the energy savings in Guangzhou for 2019. The results revealed that the UHI effect exhibited greater intensity in the southwest built-up area. Compact Lowrise (LCZ-3) and Heavy Industry (LCZ-10) areas demonstrated higher UHI intensity, while Water (LCZ-G) and Dense Trees (LCZ-A) areas showcased the highest heat mitigation index (HMI) and optimal cooling capacities. Three urban development scenarios were devised to simulate the UHI distribution, heat mitigation capacity, and energy savings by 2025, using the CA-Markov model. In comparison to the Baseline scenario, the Environmental Protection scenario showed a modest 3.67 % decrease in the built-up area, but a noteworthy increase in HMI and energy saving, by 21.2 % and 6.6 % respectively. This scenario can serve as a reference pathway for urban energy conservation and sustainable development.

Mapping the complexity of task demands during constant observation of patients with complex health behaviors.

Unlicensed patient care assistants (PCAs) are often tasked with providingconstant observation (CO)of patients withcomplex health behaviors. The unique demands of CO are poorly understood, making it challenging to design effective training.Four-componentinstructional design theory suggests the tasks associated with CO featurenon-recurrentchallenges, such that effective, simulation-based deliberate practice must reflect real-life variability.This study aimed toelucidate the variety of challenges PCAsencounter during CO of patientswithcomplex health behaviors. We used a qualitativedescriptivedesignand developed apreliminary framework to code interviews.The data collection framework wasdesigned to support creating numerous realistic scenariosto support generalized and transferable learning.From our interviews with 16 participants, we identified 1,066 statements associated with variations in CO tasks. We grouped our findings by two domains, "patient factors" and "environmental contexts." Our results revealed many recurring and non-recurring challengesinherent in CO, requiring arange of skills to maintain patient and staff safety.Instructional design elements may include scenarios incorporatingenvironment and resource assessment,cognitive feedback for non-recurrent tasks, novel methods of self-harm initiated by the patient, and incorporating interdisciplinary staff in which the learner must navigate a complex conversation. This studyclarifiesthetask demands of CO andisuseful as a task analysis to guide scenario development for simulation-based experiences. A less systematic approachwould risk underrepresenting the difficulties inherent in the task, reinforcing a limited set of behaviors that may not generalize well to the non-recurrent challenges in CO.

Systems Modeling of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus: Insights from a Region Facing Structural Water Scarcity in Southern Spain

The complex relationship between water, energy, food, and ecological systems, known as the WEFE nexus, has emerged as a major topic in the debate about sustainable economic development and resource management. This subject is of special interest in Mediterranean coastal areas as rapid economic expansion driven by population growth, higher influx of tourists, and intensification of agriculture is leading to structural water scarcity conditions. However, addressing the diverse range of issues associated with the nexus is a difficult task due to the existence of intricate interconnections, interdependencies, and nonlinearities within and across its various components. Accordingly, this case study applies a combination of participatory systems modeling and network analysis tools to yield insights into the complexity of this nexus in Axarquia, a region with features that make it an example of water-stressed jurisdictions in the Mediterranean. Overall, our results provide a strong foundation to understand the dynamics that govern this nexus in regions where the availability of freshwater resources is a significant concern. Furthermore, they lay the groundwork for the development of models and scenarios to simulate the impact of various policies and interventions on the overall system.

Cumulative collision risk and population-level consequences of industrial wind-power plant development for two vulture species: A quantitative warning

Prioritizing renewable energy generation over the conservation of natural habitats and species on a large spatial scale, leads to the paradox of impacting biodiversity to mitigate climate change. In this study, we aim at quantifying the long-term demographic impact of the excess mortality caused by collisions with wind turbines on the populations of two vulture species of conservation concern. Using long-term monitoring data and Integrated Population Models (IPMs), we quantified demographic parameters and projected population trends under various wind power development scenarios. Our findings indicate that even under our most optimistic scenarios, annual collision mortality could reach up to 30 % of the current Cinereous vulture population and 7 % of the Griffon vulture population. Without further wind power expansion, both vulture populations are predicted to remain stable or increase over the next 20 years. However, the addition of 85 wind turbines is likely to drive the Cinereous vulture to local extinction within 18 years and significantly slow the growth of the Griffon vulture population. Scenarios involving larger numbers of turbines could result in the extinction of both species within two to five years for Cinereous vultures and up to 20 years for Griffon vultures, depending on space use intensity. Our results underscore the vulnerability of long-lived species to excess mortality and highlight the need for comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) that incorporate population dynamics analyses. Effective conservation strategies must include rigorous pre- and post-construction monitoring, the availability of monitoring data, and cumulative impact assessments that consider the entire foraging range of these species. Additionally, strategic planning to avoid critical vulture habitats and implementing mitigation measures in buffer zones are essential. This study emphasizes the necessity of integrating biodiversity considerations into renewable energy planning to balance the goals of energy production and wildlife conservation.

Aluminum demand and low carbon development scenarios for major countries by 2050

Aluminum is a widely used energy-intensive material and the second largest source of carbon emissions from metal after steel. Global demand for aluminum has grown rapidly since 1970 and has shown a high correlation with population and economic growth. These factors have posed challenges to carbon reduction of aluminum industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate global aluminum demand and emissions to develop low carbon pathways. However, few studies have conducted a comprehensive analysis of the global aluminum industry. We develop different scenarios of joint abatement measures to explore pathways for the aluminum industry to significantly reduce carbon emissions by 2050. Three scenarios are considered, namely, moderate mitigation scenario (MMS), enhanced mitigation scenario (EMS), and deep mitigation scenario (DMS). The results show that: 1) Aluminum industry has a high potential for carbon emission reduction. The emissions in the three scenarios will be reduced by 33%, 77% and 85% by 2050 compared to 2020, respectively. 2) The carbon emission reduction effect of energy structure optimization and low carbon technology application is significant, with the use of clean energy playing a decisive role. 3) There is an inverse U-shaped curve relationship between per capita primary aluminum demand and per capita GDP. The aluminum demand in China and India is still growing at a high rate, and carbon emissions are always at the top. This study will effectively support the development of a low-carbon transition path for the global aluminum industry.

Research on the coupling of ecological environment and socio-economic development in resource-based cities: Based on scenario simulation method

Resource-based cities (RBCs) encounter numerous challenges in terms of ecological environment (EE) protection and socio-economy (SE) upgrading. This exerts pressure on the advancement of sustainable development. A benign relationship between EE and SE is a crucial factor in promoting RBCs to realize sustainable development. Using Sichuan RBCs as a case study, this study determined the EE and SE resilience levels, examined the degree of coupling coordination between the two levels of resilience, and investigated the specific pathways in which RBCs might reach a high coupling state. The level of resilience in Sichuan RBCs is dropping for EE, stable for SE, and steadily increasing overall. The degree of coupling coordination is suboptimal, as shown by a D-value of 0.260. However, there is an overall trend towards improved coordination. There 8 cities with a moderate state of dysfunction. In the high state development scenario, the coupling coordination degree of the cities rises significantly. Guang'an, Luzhou, Nanchong, and Zigong should prioritize addressing the issue of EE pollution emission and work to strengthen the regulation and treatment of industrial pollutants. Moreover, to enhance the influx of talent and population, the cities of Dazhou, Guangyuan, Panzhihua, and Ya'an should implement human-centered urban design and layout.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China

Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation’s food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study’s results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province’s WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan’s total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province.

Interactive First Aid Training for Mine Explosion Injuries: Development and Implementation of a New Scenario

The thesis presents a simulation scenario of first aid for mine-explosion injuries, developed in accordance with the new procedure for first aid, which entered into force on September 1, 2024. This procedure is based on algorithms used in the combat zone, developed by the Main Military Medical Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in 2022 and adapted on the basis of international protocols. The scenario assumes an interactive reaction of the "victim" to the actions of the student, which improves the development of skills in conditions of high probability of mine-explosive injuries.

Leveraging Large-scale AI Models for Transforming China's Marine Industry: A TOE Framework Analysis

As an important driving force leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change, artificial intelligence is becoming a hot spot. Promoting the deep integration of "artificial intelligence + ocean" will help build a world-class Marine artificial intelligence industry cluster with global competitiveness. How to effectively apply artificial intelligence to the Marine industry to solve the problems of resource redundancy and information island caused by industrial agglomeration is urgent for innovation and breakthrough. In this paper, TOE and modified T-TOE framework are used to analyze the above problems, and the following conclusions are drawn: 1) From the perspective of technical factors, intelligent information technology plays an important role in promoting the construction of large-scale models at the level of hardware and software; From the perspective of organizational factors, enterprise digital transformation and open sharing platform play an important role in supporting organization construction. From the perspective of environmental factors, policy support and market orientation play an important role in encouraging the construction of large models. 2) From the perspective of T-T, the breakthrough and application of technology need to balance the contradiction between development and conflict; From the perspective of T-O, intelligent supply-demand matching and transition resistance have both positive and negative effects; From the perspective of T-E, there is a problem of actively promoting multidimensional interactive innovation and achieving a balance. Relevant studies provide new ideas for the comprehensive development scenario of Marine industry and inject new impetus into the development of Marine industry.

Dengue vaccine endgame: why has the global response to exponential demand in the tropics been so slow?

IntroductionThere has been a dramatic global surge in dengue fever (DF) in recent years, with a projected 100-400 million cases annually and large outbreaks expected every 3-4 years. This concerning scenario is in sharp contrast to the very low availability of dengue vaccines to meet this spiraling demand, particularly affecting developing countries in Latin America and Africa. In our study, we aim to identify current vaccine development constraints, from a technological perspective, based on clinical trials and patent landscape data.MethodsThis study was conducted in a two-step methodology. First, candidates and launched products and methods used in the development or as part of DF vaccines were identified from the Cortellis Drug Discovery Intelligence (CDDI) platform. Second, the Derwent Innovation database was used to retrieve patent documents related to dengue vaccines. Data were collected in the period 2014-2024 (to identify the candidate and or launched vaccines) and 2018-2022 (to identify patent documents) with claims involving applications for dengue vaccine development. We presented these descriptive data in the following format: quantitative and qualitative assessments describing the vaccine development scenario and the claimed vaccine technologies.ResultsOur study indicated that 65% of dengue vaccines are still in phase 1 of development. The few current dengue vaccines that have reached phase 3 (1) and launched (2) have shown limited levels of individual protection for one or more dengue serotypes and there is an anemic pipeline of the next generation of more effective tetravalent dengue vaccines. Although the intelligent use of multiple dengue vaccine formulations in immunization campaigns can result in effective protection against all serotypes at the population level, the implementation of this is complex and challenging. The results of our study thus provide evidence of a worrisome global situation regarding the development of new dengue vaccine candidates.ConclusionTo reverse this scenario, there is an urgent need to implement new knowledge governance approaches and business models to stimulate an exponential increase in global vaccine development funding for dengue and several other vaccines.

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Carbon Stock Changes and Driving Mechanism in Xinjiang Region by Coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model

Based on the goal of "dual-carbon" strategy, it is important to explore the impacts of land use change on carbon stock and the drivers of spatial differentiation of carbon stock in Xinjiang. Here, we predicted the land use types in Xinjiang in 2035 under different scenarios and analyzed the impacts of land use on carbon stock, which is of great theoretical and practical importance for policy formulation, land use structure adjustment, and carbon neutrality target achievement in Xinjiang. The coupled PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model was used to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon stock change under the scenarios of rapid development, natural change, arable land protection, and ecological protection in Xinjiang in 2035 and to quantitatively reveal the attribution of influences on the changes in carbon stock from the perspectives of land use change and the combination of nature-socioeconomic-accessibility. The results showed that： ① From 1990 to 2020, the area of arable land and construction land in Xinjiang increased, and in terms of the transfer direction, it was mainly shifted from unutilized land to grassland. ② On the time scale, the carbon stock in Xinjiang showed the fluctuation of "decrease-increase-decrease," with an overall increasing trend. The transfer of unutilized land to grassland was the main reason for the increase in carbon stock； on the spatial scale, the carbon stock in the Altai Mountains in the north, the Tianshan Mountains in the middle, and the Kunlun Mountains in the south was higher, whereas the carbon stock in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin was lower. ③ In 2035, the carbon stock of the natural development and rapid development scenarios decreased by 27.24 Tg and 71.17 Tg compared with 2020, respectively, and the ecological protection and arable land protection scenarios increased by 492.55 Tg and 46.67 Tg. The ecological protection scenario could significantly increase the carbon stock of the Xinjiang Region compared with that in the other scenarios, and the distribution pattern of the carbon stock in the four scenarios was more or less the same as that in 2020. In addition to land transformation, soil erosion intensity was the main driver of spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang （q value of 0.3501）, followed by net primary productivity of vegetation. The results of multifactor interactions showed that the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang was the result of the joint action of multiple factors. All the factors had a synergistic enhancement under the interactions. The interaction between soil erosion intensity and the net primary productivity of vegetation was the main driver of the spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in Xinjiang.

Aprovechamiento de residuos: propuesta en la producción de abonos orgánicos - alimento animal en la Mini-industria La Guajira

The use of waste in the production of organic fertilizers and animal feed, in the La Guajira Mini-industry, in the agro-productive scenario of the CPA July 26; The result is inserted into the Project: Municipal climate governance and sustainable agroforestry production of foods with low emissions and adapted to climate change in Cienfuegos and Pinar del Río, Cuba; descriptive, explanatory, non-experimental study, using theoretical and empirical methods. Results: characterization of the Mini-industry, and design of the proposed actions. Conclusions: carrying out a characterization from a social, economic and environmental perspective of the La Guajira Mini-industry, facilitated the understanding of potentialities - weaknesses in the treatment of waste, showed the need to propose new alternatives to contribute to the adaptation to the climate change, the design of a proposal of actions that articulates with the objectives of the Projects and in synergy with the Territorial Social Economic Development Strategy, promotes alternatives for the productive chain in the use of organic fertilizers and animal feed, all of which recognizes the social economic value of the La Guajira Mini-industry, favoring the development of the agro-productive scenario of the CPA July 26.

Study on Non-Point Source Pollution Prevention and Control System in Nansi Lake Basin Based on System Dynamics Approach

Agriculture, as an important activity on which human beings depend for their livelihood, brings serious environmental problems while meeting the needs of human survival, among which agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution is one of the most urgent environmental problems. This study quantitatively assessed the loading characteristics spatial and temporal evolution patterns of two agricultural NPS pollutants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), from 2010 to 2020 in the Nansi Lake Basin as an example, and constructed a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to simulate and analyze agricultural NPS pollution under different development and treatment scenarios, based on an investigation of the regional prevention and control strategy of agricultural NPS pollution and the technological system. The results show that the current status of agricultural NPS pollution load in the Nansi Lake Basin is poor, and the level of pollution load is high, showing obvious geographical differences. In terms of temporal changes, the pollution loads of the two pollutants showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2020, among which the pollution load of NH3-N showed the largest change. Spatially, the spatial distribution of each type of pollutant has some similarities, with smaller pollution loads in Jining and Zaozhuang and relatively larger pollution loads in Heze and Ningyang. The main source of COD pollution in the Nansi Lake Basin is rural life, with an emission proportion of 52.85%, and the main sources of NH3-N pollution from agricultural NPS pollution in the area are rural life and livestock and poultry farming, with emission proportions of 47.55% and 35.36%, respectively. Under the status quo continuum scenario, the pollution load values for COD are consistently higher than those for NH3-N, so the relative impact of COD is greater. In this study, the principles and methods of SD in system science are adopted to deal with the agricultural NPS pollution of Nansi Lake Basin, and the evolution of its behavioral characteristics are simulated, forecasted, and predicted, and policy experiments are conducted, with a view to providing references for the prevention and control of agricultural NPS pollution in Nansi Lake Basin and further research.

Quantitative prediction of water quality in Dongjiang Lake watershed based on LUCC

Land Use/ Cover Change (LUCC) plays a crucial role in influencing hydrological processes, nutrient cycling, and sediment transport in watersheds, ultimately impacting water quality on both spatial and temporal scales. Accurately predicting changes in watershed water quality is beneficial for the sustainable management of water resources. Current models often lack the ability to effectively predict water quality changes in a dynamic spatio-temporal context, particularly in complex watershed environments. The overall purpose of the study is to establish a comprehensive and dynamic modeling framework that links LUCC with water quality, allowing for accurate predictions of future water quality under varying land use scenarios. The model, which uses water quality as the dependent variable and LUCC as the independent variable, was developed to quantitatively predict changes in watershed water quality. To achieve this, annual multi-period remote sensing images from Landsat-5, Landsat-8 or Sentinel-2 satellites spanning from 1992 to 2022 were analyzed. Random Forest (achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.9468) were employed to classify land use within the watershed. Based on classification results, a Cellular Automata-Markov chain model (CA-Markov) was constructed to simulate and predict the spatio-temporal patterns of land use, incorporating driving factors such as proximity to water systems, roads, elevation, and slope. Validation of the model using LUCC data from 2020 yielded a high prediction accuracy with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9505. The CA-Markov model was further utilized to project LUCC under three different scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, and arable land protection—between 2023 and 2033. Based on these projections, the coupled water quality and LUCC model was employed to predict water quality changes in the watershed over the same period. Key findings indicate that water quality is likely to improve under ecological protection scenario, while deterioration is expected under natural development scenario and cropland protection scenario due to urban expansion, agricultural practices, and water diversion for irrigation. This study provides a robust framework for watershed management, offering scientific guidance for source management and water purification efforts, thereby contributing significantly to the sustainable development of water resources.

DEVELOPMENT OF DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ENTERPRISES IN CONDITIONS OF DIVERSIFICATION

The article analyzes the relevance of diversification processes for the modern military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation and the difficulties that domestic enterprises face on the path to their deployment. The relevance of the study is due to the role that the military-industrial complex (MIC) plays for the future of the country in general and for its economic dynamics in particular. The study uses modeling methods when forming a model for constructing the interaction of a large regional defense industry enterprise and the external environment, analysis to substantiate the effectiveness of the development of diversification processes implemented in the defense industry enterprise, a scenario approach, when predicting the development of diversification processes based on the object of study and determining its inertial, optimistic and pessimistic development scenarios. It is noted that increasing the production of civilian and dual-use products can become a guarantor of long-term operation for defense enterprises, as well as a path to ensuring their own technological sovereignty and contribution to the technological sovereignty of the country. The question is raised about the optimal way to build integration interaction between defense industry enterprises and other economic entities along the path of diversification processes. The concept of entrepreneurial ecosystems is proposed as the basis for such interaction. A model is presented for the formation of an entrepreneurial ecosystem in the military-industrial complex with the participation of local development institutions, industrial partners, universities, and small and medium-sized businesses. Using a particular example, a conclusion is drawn about the economic feasibility of introducing this model. The obtained materials can be useful to defense industry enterprises in the process of developing programs for the diversification of military production and the development of dual-use technologies.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Modeling Based on Terrestrial Carbon Stocks in Xinjiang

The increase in atmospheric CO2 leads to global warming and ecological environment deterioration. Carbon storage modeling and assessment can promote the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This paper took Xinjiang as the study area, analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in four periods from 1990 to 2020, explored the spatial relationship of carbon stocks using the InVEST model, and coupled the GMOP model with the PLUS model to carry out multiple scenarios for the future simulation of land use in the study area. We found (1) Over time, the types with an increasing area were mainly impervious and cropland, and the types with a decreasing area were grassland, snow/ice, and barren; spatially, the types were predominantly barren and grassland, with the conversion of grassland to cropland being more evident in the south of Northern Xinjiang and north of Southern Xinjiang. (2) The evolutionary pattern of terrestrial carbon stocks is increasing and then decreasing in time, and the carbon sink areas are concentrated in the Tarim River Basin and the vicinity of the Ili River; spatially, there are differences in the aggregation between the northern, southern, and eastern borders. By analyzing the transfer in and out of various categories in Xinjiang over the past 30 years, it was obtained that the transfer out of grassland reduced the carbon stock by 5757.84 × 104 t, and the transfer out of Barren increased the carbon stock by 8586.12 × 104 t. (3) The land use layout of the sustainable development scenario is optimal under the conditions of satisfying economic and ecological development. The reduction in terrestrial carbon stocks under the 2020–2030 sustainable development scenario is 209.79 × 104 t, which is smaller than the reduction of 830.79 × 104 t in 2010–2020. Land optimization resulted in a lower loss of carbon stocks and a more rational land-use layout. Future planning in Xinjiang should be based on sustainable development scenarios, integrating land resources, and achieving sustainable economic and ecological development.

Various Components and the present Scenario of Skill Development

Literacy enhances people's knowledge and abilities. Literacy as a fundamental human right is becoming more widely recognized across the globe. Because of this, learning never ends. Having skill makes any task easier to do. Practical education builds on previously gained information, and the two go hand in hand. Formal and informal channels of information dissemination have both been used by educational institutions. Making a student financially independent is one of the primary goals of formal education. College degrees are a boon to society in many ways, both financially and otherwise. Higher education students who participate in skill development programs get insight into themselves while also gaining practical knowledge, increasing their productivity, and realizing their full potential. Undergraduate students who were previously aimlessly pursuing higher education now have an alternate schooling option because to the social logic of these programs. But for skill development programs to be accessible, equitable, informative, and engaging for undergraduates—who "...have miles to go before they sleep"—and to be meaningful and effective in light of the changing global scenario, careful planning is essential.