10 Background: Bone is the preferred site for metastases of breast cancer, affecting approximately 70% of women with advanced disease. N-terminal of procollagen type 1 (P1NP), c-terminal peptide crosslinks (CTX), osteocalcin (OC), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are markers of bone turnover that may have clinical utility as predictors of breast cancer recurrence in the bone. Methods: Serum was collected prior to treatment from 162 patients with stage I-III and 83 patients with stage IV breast cancer from 09/2001 to 12/2008. Serum levels of P1NP, CTX, OC, and IL-6 were determined using the Roche’s Elecsys 2010 automated immunoassay system. Correlations of biomarker levels with stage and with time to bone metastases development were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Patients with stage IV at the time of diagnosis had higher levels of serum P1NP (p<0.0001) and CTX (p<0.0001) compared with stage I-III patients. Fifty-five of the 162 patients with stage I-III breast cancer subsequently developed metastatic disease. Baseline P1NP level ≥ 75 ng/mL predicted time to development of bone metastases in patients with stage I-III breast cancer (hazard ratio = 2.7, 95% confidence intervals = (1.2, 6.0), p = 0.031), even after adjusting for clinical factors (p = 0.019). Baseline P1NP level also correlated with OS when it was modeled as a quadratic polynomial (on the log scale) with patients with P1NP level ≥ 75 ng/mL having a worse overall survival (hazard ratio = 3.3, 95% confidence intervals = (1.5, 7.3),p = 0.0036. Conclusions: In patients with stage I-III breast cancer, serum P1NP levels >75 ng/mL prior to definitive treatment correlated with shorter time to development of bone metastases and shorter overall survival rate. Baseline serum levels of IL-6, CTX and osteocalcin did not correlate with development of bone metastases.
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