Mesocyclone Development Research Articles

Integrated Convective Characteristic Extraction Algorithm for Dual Polarization Radar: Description and Application to a Convective System

To further enhance the application of dual-polarization radar in hail nowcasting, we develop an integrated convective characteristic extraction (ICCE) algorithm based on the storm cell identification and tracking (SCIT) algorithm using dual-polarization radar data and its secondary products (hydrometeor classification data and mesocyclone data). The ICCE identifies and tracks not storm cells but convective systems, and it adds other storm characteristics, such as storm microphysics (hail- and graupel-related) and storm dynamics (mesocyclone-related), to the original storm characteristics, such as storm structure (reflectivity-related) and storm tracking (motion-related). The data of four mesocyclonic hailstorms observed by the two S-band dual-polarization radars in Guangdong Province, China, are utilized, from which we draw the following conclusions: (1) ICCE excels in identifying, characterizing, matching, and tracking convective systems; and (2) the newly added storm microphysics and dynamics characteristics can more accurately quantify the relationship between mesocyclone development, hail growth, and convective system enhancement throughout the evolution of the convective system.

Impact of the Streamwise Vorticity Current on Low‐Level Mesocyclone Development in a Simulated Supercell

AbstractResults from a large eddy simulation of a tornadic supercell developing in a horizontally homogeneous environment are presented which clearly illustrate a connection between low‐level mesoyclone development and the development of a streamwise vorticity current (SVC). Although the environment supports tornadic supercells, a strong low‐level mesocyclone (LLM) does not develop until a well‐defined SVC forms in the storm's forward flank. As the streamwise vorticity in the SVC flows southward and is tilted into the storm updraft creating updraft helicity, the LLM strengthens and lowers toward the surface. The SVC also focuses LLM development in a confined storm‐relative position favorable for converging/stretching preexisting vertical vorticity. Tornadogenesis occurs within ∼5 min of the establishment of a strong LLM. These results illustrate a possible mode of internal storm variability that may be an important factor in explaining why some supercells produce tornadoes while others do not in similar favorable environments.

A case study of South Australia’s severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak 28 September 2016

An analysis of the South Australian severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak of 28 September 2016, which produced at least seven tornadoes and contributed to a state-wide power outage, is presented here. Although challenging, prediction and understanding of tornadoes and other hazards associated with severe thunderstorms is very important to forecasters and to community and emergency services preplanning and preparedness. High-resolution deterministic and ensemble simulations of the event are conducted using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) model and the simulations are compared to radar and satellite observations. The deterministic simulation and two of the ensemble members show that the overall structure, orientation, intensity and timing of simulated thunderstorms is in good agreement with the observations. In the deterministic simulation, a hook-echo feature in the simulated reflectivity, indicating the presence of a mesocyclone, appeared at the time and location of one of the observed tornadoes. Two diagnostics were found to have good value for identifying tornado-formation risk. Updraft helicity successfully identified the potential for mesocyclone development, and the Okubo–Weiss parameter identified model-resolved mesocyclone rotation. The ensemble simulations show a wide range of outcomes for intensity, timing and structure of the event, as well as differences in potential for tornado formation. This emphasises the importance of ensemble simulations in forecasting severe weather and associated hazards, as ensembles identify a range of possible scenarios and the uncertainty, leading to improved guidance for forecasters and emergency services.

High resolution simulations of a tornadic storm affecting Sydney

On 16 December 2015 a severe thunderstorm and associated tornado affected Sydney causing widespread damage and insured losses of $206 million. Severe impacts occurred in Kurnell, requiring repairs to Sydney's desalination plant which supplies up to 15% of Sydney water during drought, with repairs only completed at the end of 2018. Climatologically, this storm was unusual as it occurred during the morning and had developed over the ocean, rather than developing inland during the afternoon as is the case for many severe storms impacting the Sydney region. Simulations of the Kurnell storm were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on a double nested domain using the Morrison microphysics scheme and the NSSL 2-moment 4-ice microphysics scheme. Both simulations produced severe storms that followed paths similar to the observed storm. However, the storm produced under the Morrison scheme did not have the same morphology as the observed storm. Meanwhile, the storm simulated with the NSSL scheme displayed cyclical low- and mid-level mesocyclone development, which was observed in the Kurnell storm, highlighting that the atmosphere supported the development of severe rotating thunderstorms with the potential for tornadogenesis. The NSSL storm also produced severe hail and surface winds, similar to observations. The ability of WRF to simulate general convective characteristics and a storm similar to that observed displays the applicability of this model to study the causes of severe high-impact Australian thunderstorms.

Synoptic controls on precipitation pathways and snow delivery to high‐accumulation ice core sites in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

Dominant storm tracks to two ice core sites on the western margin of the Ross Sea, Antarctica (Skinner Saddle (SKS) and Evans Piedmont Glacier), are investigated to establish key synoptic controls on snow accumulation. This is critical in terms of understanding the seasonality, source regions, and transport pathways of precipitation delivered to these sites. In situ snow depth and meteorological observations are used to identify major accumulation events in 2007–2008, which differ considerably between sites in terms of their magnitude and seasonal distribution. While snowfall at Evans Piedmont Glacier occurs almost exclusively during summer and spring, Skinner Saddle receives precipitation year round with a lull during the months of April and May. Cluster analysis of daily back trajectories reveals that the highest‐accumulation days at both sites result from fast‐moving air masses, associated with synoptic‐scale low‐pressure systems. There is evidence that short‐duration pulses of snowfall at SKS also originate from mesocyclone development over the Ross Ice Shelf and local moisture sources. Changes in the frequency and seasonal distribution of these mechanisms of precipitation delivery will have a marked impact on annual accumulation over time and will therefore need careful consideration during the interpretation of stable isotope and geochemical records from these ice cores.

Simulation of atmospheric states for a storm surge on the west coast of Korea: model comparison between MM5, WRF and COAMPS

High-quality informations on sea level pressure and sea surface wind stress are required to accurately predict storm surges over the Korean Peninsula. The storm surge on 31 March 2007 at Yeonggwang, on the western coast, was an abrupt response to mesocyclone development. In the present study, we attempted to obtain reliable surface winds and sea level pressures. Using an optimal physical parameterization for wind conditions, MM5, WRF and COAMPS were used to simulate the atmospheric states that accompanied the storm surge. The use of MM5, WRF and COAMPS simulations indicated the development of high winds in the strong pressure gradient due to an anticyclone and a mesocyclone in the southern part of the western coast. The response to this situation to the storm surge was sensitive. A low-level warm advection was examined as a possible causal mechanism for the development of a mesocyclone in the generating storm surge. The low-level warm temperature advection was simulated using the three models, but MM5 and WRF tended to underestimate the warm tongue and overestimate the wind speed. The WRF simulation was closer to the observed data than the other simulations in terms of wind speed and the intensity of the mesocyclone. It can be concluded that the magnitude of the storm surge at Yeonggwang was dependent, not only on the development of a mesocyclone but on ocean effects as well.

Convective Snowfalls Linked to the Interaction of a Boundary-Layer Front with a Mesoscale Cyclone Near Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica

During the XXII Italian expedition in Antarctica, in the summer of 2007, severe weather conditions associated with deep convective instability and heavy coastal precipitation occurred around the Terra Nova Bay area in the presence of an upper level trough and energetic katabatic winds flowing from the Ross Ice Shelf over the open sea. In this case study we document an example of boundary-layer frontal movement across the Ross Sea and mesocyclone development in conjunction with the frontal movement. A westward fast moving boundary-layer front, generated by the leftward turning katabatic airstream to the east of Ross Island, was observed propagating as a baroclinic wave disturbance in an easterly direction across the Ross Sea, merging later with a mesocyclone approaching Terra Nova Bay from offshore. The observed inertial trajectory and an estimation of the radius of curvature suggest that the vigorous katabatic airstream was sustained by the strengthening of a surface mesocyclonic circulation settled over the north-eastern Ross Ice Shelf, triggered by a sub-synoptic upper level trough passing over the area. We hypothesise that baroclinic instability in the low levels plays an important role in the development of a mesoscale vortex and for triggering convective precipitation.

Southern hemisphere winter cold-air mesocyclones: climatic environments and associations with teleconnections

Cold-air mesocyclones remain a forecasting challenge in the southern hemisphere middle and higher latitudes, where conventional observations are lacking. One way to improve mesocyclone predictability is to determine their larger-scale circulation environments and associations with teleconnection patterns. To help realize this objective, reanalysis datasets on atmospheric and upper-ocean synoptic variables important in mesocyclone development are composited and compared to previously published mesocyclone spatial inventories. These analyses demonstrate a consistent association between higher frequencies of mesocyclones, greater sea ice extent and large positive differences in the SST minus low-altitude air temperature fields, coinciding with enhanced westerly low-level winds having a southerly component. Composites in the 1979–2001 period also were formed for opposite phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Trans-Polar Index (TPI). Regions likely to be favorable for mesocyclone development relative to climatology were identified. The largest (smallest) variations in meso-cyclogenesis occur in the South Pacific (South Indian Ocean, south of Australia), and are dominated by ENSO. The SAM and TPI are of secondary importance, yet still influential, and exhibit strong regional-scale variations.

Snowstorm over the southwestern coast of the Korean Peninsula associated with the development of mesocyclone over the Yellow Sea

This study investigates the characteristics of a heavy snowfall event over the southwestern part of the Korean Peninsula on 4 December 2005. The snowstorm was a type of mesoscale maritime cyclone which resulted from barotropic instability, and diabatic heating from the warm ocean in continental polar air masses.

In fluence parameters for a polar mesocyclone development

Polar mesocyclones are small-scale, short-living phenomena in the Arctic and Antarctic. Their forecast is difficult due to a lack of knowledge of initial and boundary conditions. Idealised sensitivity studies are performed with the mesoscale atmosphere - sea ice model METRAS-MESIM to evaluate the relevance of the large-scale meteorological situation and sea ice cover for surface heat fluxes and a mesocyclone development. The evaluation area is 340 km x 340 km, and a sea ice distribution typical for the Fram Strait is used. The area averaged surface heat flux strongly depends on the ice distribution. The surface heat flux is about 95 W m -2 for a mesocyclone moving close to the ice edge and a high sea ice concentration of 97 % in the ice covered region. Ice thickness and ocean currents do not significantly influence the average surface heat fluxes. A large-scale situation that alters the cyclone track and forces the cyclone to mostly move over ice (cover 97 %) reduces the average surface heat flux by 30 %. An increase of the heat flux by 81 % is found for a homogeneous ice distribution with the same total sea ice mass. A decrease of sea ice concentration from 97 % to 75 % increases the average surface heat flux by 44 %. Thus, for the forecast of average surface heat fluxes during a cyclone passage the knowledge of the sea ice distribution is more relevant than the knowledge of the cyclone track. The break up of sea ice distant from the ice edge might trigger the development of enhanced baroclinicity over ice covered regions and, thus, favour conditions for a mesocyclone intensification. The mesocyclone development is mainly determined by intensification at the ice edge resulting from enhanced surface heat fluxes and horizontal temperature gradients in that region. If the cyclone moves over densely ice covered regions the central pressure is up to 6 hPa higher than when it passes close to the ice edge. A homogeneous sea ice cover leads to a maximum pressure difference of 4 hPa. A 22 % reduction of sea ice concentration in the ice covered regions results in maximum pressure deviations of 2 hPa and an increase of the area averaged wind speed by 2 m s -1 . Thus, for the forecast of minimum central pressure and wind speed of a polar mesocyclone the cyclone track with respect to the ice distribution needs to be known. The actual pressure may be influenced by the cyclone passage itself by changing the sea ice distribution.

Vertical Wind Shear Associated with Left-Moving Supercells

Vertical wind shear parameters are presented for 60 left-moving supercells across the United States, 53 of which produced severe hail (≥1.9 cm). Hodographs corresponding to environments of left-moving supercells have a tendency to be more linear than those of their right-moving supercell counterparts. When curvature is present in the hodographs of the left-moving supercells, it is typically confined to the lowest 0.5–1 km. Values of 0–6-km wind shear for left-moving supercells—both bulk and cumulative—are within the ranges commonly found in right-moving supercell environments, but the shear values do occur toward the lower end of the spectrum. Conversely, the absolute values of storm-relative helicity (SRH) for left-moving supercells are much smaller, on average, than what occur for right-moving supercells (although SRH values for many right-moving supercells also fall well below general guidelines for mesocyclone development). A significant fraction of the 0–3-km SRH (25%) and 0–1-km SRH (65%) for left-moving supercells is positive, owing to the shallow clockwise curvature of the hodographs. However, nearly all of the 1–3-km SRH for left-moving supercells is negative, with absolute values comparable in magnitude to those for right-moving supercells. A limited climatological analysis of vertical wind shear associated with convective environments across parts of the central United States suggests that clockwise curvature of the low-level shear vector is most common in the central/southern plains, partially explaining the preeminence of right-moving supercells in that area. In contrast, hodographs are more linear over the northern high plains, suggesting left-moving supercells may be relatively more common there. It would be beneficial to implement operational radar algorithms that can detect mesoanticyclones across the United States.

A Supercell Thunderstorm with Hook Echo in the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study documents a damaging supercell thunderstorm that occurred in California's San Joaquin Valley on 5 March 1994. The storm formed in a “cold sector” environment similar to that documented for several other recent Sacramento Valley severe thunderstorm events. Analyses of hourly subsynoptic surface and radar data suggested that two thunderstorms with divergent paths developed from an initial echo that had formed just east of the San Francisco Bay region. The southern storm became severe as it ingested warmer, moister boundary layer air in the south-central San Joaquin Valley. A well-developed hook echo with a 63-dBZ core was observed by a privately owned 5-cm radar as the storm passed through the Fresno area. Buoyancy parameters and hodograph characteristics were obtained both for estimated conditions for Fresno [on the basis of a modified morning Oakland (OAK) sounding] and for the actual storm environment (on the basis of a radiosonde launched from Lemoore Naval Air Station at about the time of the storm's passage through the Fresno area). Both the estimated and actual hodographs essentially were straight and suggested storm splitting. Although the actual CAPE was similar to that which was estimated, the observed magnitude of the low-level shear was considerably greater than the estimate. The bulk Richardson number for the observed conditions (BRN = 21) was well within the range observed for supercells elsewhere in the country. Both the estimated and observed 0–3-km storm-relative helicities were in the range observed for mesocyclone development. Forecasters familiar with the relation of buoyancy, shear, and hodograph characteristics to the development of severe storms could have made useful inferences about the potential for severe weather in the Central Valley on the basis of simple modification of the morning OAK sounding.

An Analysis of a Mesocyclone–Induced Tornado Occurrence in Northern California

Abstract One documented F2 tornado and several other unconfirmed tornadoes were reported in California's Sacramento Valley on 24 September 1986. The synoptic pattern which occurred that day was one long-recognized by California operational meteorologists as being associated with severe weather in the state. The present study documents this event and shows that the parent thunderstorm had supercellular characteristics and that the tornado was mesocyclone-induced. As is the case elsewhere when severe thunderstorms are observed, the mesoscale environment established a focus for late morning and early afternoon deep convection. A quasi-stationary leeside trough acted in concert with local channeling effects to promote the advection of relatively moist air to the northern portions of the Valley. This channeled flow contributed to low-level shear which was much stronger than that evident in the Oakland hodograph and one which was comparable to that found with supercell and mesocyclone development elsewhere in t...