Inner Mongolia is a key region for China’s clean energy production and a demonstration base for modern coal chemical industry production. However, modern coal chemical industry development in this region faces many problems, such as complex downstream product structures, low value-added products, and severe environmental pollution. With limited future coal allowance in the coal chemical industry, the scarce available coal will likely be allocated to fields with strong product competitiveness to enhance industrial chain value. Given this, the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefin industrial chain is selected to explore its strategic expansion directions. An improved value chain accounting method is proposed to account for the value of each segment of the coal-to-olefin industrial chain in Inner Mongolia from 2011 to 2022. The improved value chain accounting method is then combined with system dynamics to construct a model for selecting the expansion directions of the coal-to-olefin industrial chain based on the value chain perspective. Finally, the differences in the value of each future expansion direction are analyzed through scenario simulation and comparison. The most important result is that the higher the extension of the coal-to-olefin industry chain in Inner Mongolia, the higher the value of the industry chain. Carbon punishment is the most important factor affecting the value of the industry chain, and enterprises and governments should increase investment in innovation and renewable energy. Accordingly, this study provides a decision-making method for selecting the optimal expansion direction of the modern coal chemical industrial chain in Inner Mongolia.
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