Development In Iran Research Articles

How We Can Develop Sports in Iran: Explaining the Process

Purpose: The current research aimed to design and explain the sports Development processes in Iran.Methodology: The qualitative and grounded theory-based methods have been used for the current study. The snowball data sampling method and the semi-structural interviews with 15 knowledgeable elites on the subject was used for data collection. The obtained data were analysed by the grounded theory coding with the structuralist approach introduced by Charmaz (2006). The coding was done in two phases as the primary and concentrated codes. Then, the theoretical coding was used to organize the concentrated codes. The trustworthiness of the obtained data and codes for ensuring them the researcher did authenticity.Findings: The findings show that the processes required for sports development in Iran include attraction, maintenance (the Process of maintaining community sport participation and the Process of retaining talent), and education. These three processes and their components are interrelated and connected in a systematic approach. The proper designing of the processes and the relationship between their components with the strategy to use each process output as the input of the next one with particular emphasis on the interstitial processes and components is an essential point that must be considered.Originality: Proper design of processes and the relationship between their components using each Process's output as input to the next Process with special emphasis on the Process and intermediate components is a critical point that must be considered. It is in this state that heroism is taken out of the greenhouse mode. Incidentally, with the spread and promotion of sports and physical activity among different sections of society, the possibility of the emergence of sports talents naturally increases, and their growth and excellence path becomes clear. Iran's sports development model is presented with a stakeholder approach, procedures and process.

The Study and Analysis of The Prevailing Elements and Patterns in The Background of The Works of Mirzababa, A Qajar Painter

The Qajar period is the beginning of many important and long-lasting developments in Iran's contemporary era. Among these developments, we should mention the changes in Iranian arts and the aspects that these arts had with them. Planning and backgrounding were among the aspects that entered Iranian painting with the entrance of Western art elements. Mirzababa was one of the most important painters of the first Qajar period, and the way he used these elements became an unwritten and frequently used pattern among artists. The purpose of the present article is to analyze the background of his works and to understand his backgrounding. The research is a theoretical and a descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population of the research consists of the works of Mirzababa and because the number of works that have reached us is limited, the sample size is all of his works. The research data show that Mirzababa had been backgrounding according to the type of art or used medium. Backgrounds have a general pattern or contractual elements that have an interior, exterior, or a combination of both spaces rather than the used medium.

A Comprehensive Survey of Proton Beam Therapy Research and Development in Iran

Purpose: Proton Beam Therapy (PBT) is an emerging radiotherapy technique using beams of proton to treat cancer. As the first report addressing the topic, the principal aim is to highlight the present status of PBT research and development in Iran as a developing country. Materials and Methods: To do so, the demand for PBT in Iran and Iran National Ion Therapy Center (IRNitc) was investigated and introduced. Then, Scopus and PubMed were searched for studies that dealt with PBT research in Iran and subsequently 6 major subfields of interest were identified. Furthermore, international collaborations were extracted from the bibliographic data. To combine both research and development sides, a SWOT analysis was performed through collecting viewpoints of 48 radiotherapy experts about PBT, and then strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of it were examined. Results: Iran contributes to approximately 1% of global PBT sciences. Proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo simulation is the dominant subject of interest for Iranian researchers. Italy is recognized as the major foreign partner in PBT researches. Clinical advantages over conventional radiotherapy modalities are the main strength of PBT development in Iran while the high installation cost remains the most weakness. Finally, 10 general considerations for the launching of a PBT facility in Iran were presented based upon both Iranian experts’ viewpoints and IAEA recommendations. Conclusion: This research reveals that while PBT research and development in Iran are still in their infancy, there are promising trends in both the research and development sides of PBT.

Energy subsidy reform evaluation research – reviews in Iran

AbstractThis paper provides an ex post evaluation of Iran's energy subsidy reform of main law, definitions, its aims and scope, its effectiveness, and problems. Based on an assessment of policy reports, actual data, peer‐reviewed studies, and regression models, this study suggests evidence that the removal of energy subsidies in Iran was effective in reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions only in the first 2 years of policy implementation. But, over the next years, the demand for energy commodities increased because of the incomplete implementation of the policy. Besides some local and international economic, social, and political challenges, the policy was not completed in the subsequent years because the government did not prepare its preliminary theoretical framework and requirements in the three stages of legislation and transparency – implementation and management, control, and adjustment of the negative policy impacts. Moreover, the decline in environmental emissions occurred mainly due to fuel switching, as natural gas consumption in power plants, industries, and transport, and rather the use of renewable energies, increased substantially. Likewise, at the time of removal of energy subsidies, the government introduced a cash transfer scheme until the present. This compensation scheme has had significant burdens on the government budget and reaches the trillions of rials each year, while in the first year of the policy, it improved the socioeconomic welfare. The econometric results showed that removing energy subsidies is an effective policy in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran. This study provides important policy recommendations for sustainable energy security and economic development in Iran. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identifying challenges and barriers for development of solar energy by using fuzzy best-worst method: A case study

Energy is a main factor for sustainable and economic development of many countries in the world. The objective of this paper is to investigate barriers facing solar energy development in Iran through a case study conducted on the Alborz Province. A questionnaire was designed and then submitted to the professionals in the field of solar energy. First, the identified barriers are classified into five categories of technical, legal, economic, sociocultural, and support by help of experts. Then, the fuzzy Best-Worst method is used to determine importance of the identified criteria and sub-criteria for development of the solar energy sector in the region. The findings indicate that the primary barriers to solar energy development are economic factors which are related to the adverse impact of the uncertain economic conditions including the sanctions against Iran. Because of the high risk of new business, domestic people do not have enough ambition and interest in starting new renewable energy projects. The low price of fossil fuels (in the economic category as sub-criteria), has the most significant impact on the stagnation of this sector, which is related to the ease of access to energy in Iran and its effect on the interest in renewable energy use. Supporting the private sectors by receiving financial incentives can help development of the renewable energy sector in the province. By using similar research for other regions, decision makers can accurately identify challenges for development of solar energy.

Second-generation biofuel development in iran: current state and future directions

ABSTRACT Iran is considered one of the most polluted countries in the world, where major cities have consistently dealt with severe air pollution in recent decades. Fossil fuels account for a considerable portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban areas of Iran. Biofuels have been touted as an effective means of reducing urban air pollution. Since biofuels are largely compatible with the vehicles in Iran, they can be blended with the fossil fuels currently produced in the country as a feasible solution to the pollution crisis. This paper investigates the potential of second-generation biofuel development in Iran. First, potential biofuel resources are identified in each province. Next, the agro-ecological and climatic conditions of Iran for biomass production are evaluated. Lastly, the challenges and opportunities associated with biofuel production are discussed. The resulting managerial insights indicate that agricultural residues and energy crops are the most suitable resources for biofuel production.

A STUDY OF FAMILY ADVOCATE LAWS AND POLICIES IN IRAN (POST-ISLAMIC REVOLUTION)

The study of social developments in Iran indicates slow but wide-ranging changes in recent years. With the Islamic Revolution (1979), Iranian society gradually faced increasing waves of fundamental cultural changes. The Islamic Republic of Iran, as the crossroads of Islam and modern law, considers the family as the fundamental unit of society and a sacred institution and therefore has always advocated “family. Based upon the tenth article of the Iranian constitution all laws, legal measures, regulations, and planning related to the family must be based on Islamic law and ethics (Islamic sharia) in order to facilitate its formation, protect its sanctity and strengthen family relations. The number of laws and policies and bills that were introduced in the period after the victory of the Islamic Revolution and in direct or indirect connection with the family institution is proof of this claim. This qualitative research has studied those policies and laws (1979 to 2020) that have represented the aim of advocating “Family”. Critical analysis has been used in the text as amethod of research. According to the results of the analysis, while “Governmental” reactions to “Family” issues have been mostly of economic essence and conservative approach, “Judicial” reactions have remained more responsible in case of addressing the contemporary problems of the “Family” institution. It is noteworthy that a review of legal policies shows that changes in the institution of the family have been identified by the government. A finding that shows the relative independence of the legal sphere from the sphere of government action. After the Iranian revolution, policies and programs have been implemented to support the family in the face of the challenges of modernization. Therefore, the purpose of this essay is to study the changes and developments of the family in the context of law and policy making and its impact on Iranian policy in the field of family.

Universities and Economic Development in Iran and the UK: A Comparative Study

Since their beginning, universities and higher education institutions have been cultural, scientific, and moral centers for their societies. At the present time, they also play a key role in economic development in their regions. In this respect, British universities are considered pioneering institutions with innovative strategies that can be a suitable model for Iranian universities to build economic capacity to accelerate the country's economic development. As the title suggests, the paper, by examining six factors, focuses on British universities' roles in the UK's economic development. In this regard, by comparing the contribution of British and Iranian universities to the economy, it is concluded that in the UK, the universities are detected as significant actors in economic development. In contrast, Iranian universities are not entirely recognized as essential players in the economy. The paper is performed by two methods of documentary and survey study. The research purpose is the promotion of the literature that shows how the higher education system in the UK prepares students in order to achieve economic development.

The dynamic relationship between combined pollution, consumption and production of renewable electricity and sustainable development in Iran

The dynamic relationship between combined pollution, consumption and production of renewable electricity and sustainable development in Iran

The dynamic relationship between combined pollution, consumption and production of renewable electricity and sustainable development in Iran

The dynamic relationship between combined pollution, consumption and production of renewable electricity and sustainable development in Iran

Environment and economic development in Iran

In the early 1970s, Iran showed a strong desire to create a healthy environment. However, no one expected Iran to sacrifice economic growth for the environment. Therefore, the constitution included some principles that combined pollution control and environmental protection programs with current development programs to ensure that environmental activities are considered part of national development. Iran's development programs show that in encouraging and preserving the environment, the role of the government before and after the Islamic Revolution, instead of promoting competition, efficiency, and protection through market mechanisms, was direct command and supervision. In this regard, the weakness of executive programs, lack of public awareness and disregard for individuals and factories of policies and laws, prioritization of annual budget allocation in areas other than the environment has led to the inability of environmental control policies in Iran. Therefore, it is very important to answer two basic questions in the future. Do the beliefs of the people of the society matter for the destruction of the environment and call for serious action to deal with the environmental hazards? Has the government provided a suitable platform and opportunity for environmental protection? Answering these questions leads to the formulation of policies and their operational implementation concerning environmental issues in the country's program and budget, and the success of policies depends on the answers to these questions.

Refugees and Sustainable Health Development in Iran

Refugees' access to quality healthcare services might be compromised, which can in turn hinder universal health coverage (UHC), and achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), ultimately. Objective: This article aims to illustrate the status of refugees' access to healthcare and main initiatives to improve their health status in Iran. This is a mixed-method study with two consecutive phases: qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative phase, through a review of documents and semi-structured interviews with 40 purposively-selected healthcare providers, the right of refugees to access healthcare services in the Iranian health system was examined. In the quantitative phase, data on refugees' insurance coverage and their utilization from community-based rehabilitation (CBR) projects were collected and analyzed. There are international and upstream policies, laws and practical projects that support refugees' health in Iran. Refugees and immigrants have free access to most healthcare services provided in the PHC network in Iran. They can also access curative and rehabilitation services, the costs of which depend on their health insurance status. In 2015, the government allowed the inclusion of all registered refugees in the Universal Public Health Insurance (UPHI) scheme. Moreover, the mean number of disabled refugees using CBR services was 786 (±389.7). The mean number of refugees covered by the UPHI scheme was 112,000 (±30404.9). The United Nations' SDGs ask to strive for peace and reducing inequity. Along its pathway towards UHC, despite limited resources received from the international society, the government of Iran has taken some fundamental steps to serve refugees similar to citizens of Iran. Although the initiative looks promising, more is still required to bring NGOs on board and fulfill the vision of leaving no one behind.

Understanding transportation prerequisites to be integrated with urban development in developing countries: Iran as a Case

Transit Oriented Development (TOD), as an integrated transportation and land use policy and practice, was given attention in recent decades to (re)formulate urban areas worldwide. Amongst different TOD planning dimensions at play in, the transportation design and policies tend to basically form the backbone of TODs, since a multimodal sustainable movement — public transportation (PT) for long trips as well as non-motorized transportation (NMT) for short ones — is on the agenda. Although it is agreed that TOD can provide even greater benefits than in wealthier countries in long term, developing countries (DCs) are characterized with specific transport-related issues such as vexing congestion, inadequate PT infrastructure, financial obstacles, etc., that should be dealt with to deliver successful integrated TOD projects. In this regards, the present study sheds further lights on the transportation prerequisites of transit oriented urban planning in DCs. First, a systematic review of global literature provided a set of transportation dimensions integrated with urban development. Due to the recent national policies on TOD, Iran was selected as a case and a set of semi-structured interviews was conducted with Iranian urban and transport planners along with government officials in April-June 2019. The results showed that although there are some favorable conditions to TOD developments in Iran e.g., amalgamated transportation and urban development ministries, urban transportation is hindered by pro-car policies such as subsidized fuel price and lack of multi-modal infrastructure in comparison with the best practices in such DCs as Curitiba. The findings have also implications for transportation policymakers, city officials, planners, and interested readers and practitioners in Iran and other DCs interested in TOD.

On the Way to Modern Society: the Shia Clergy in Early 20th Century Iranian Politics

Social and political events of the early 20 century caused the emergence of new concepts for the development of Iran, the relevance of which over time not only did not diminish, but increased. The agents of new ideology were both intellectual reformers of the secular circle and the Shia clergy, who actively participated in politics. The article, within the framework of an interdisciplinary study, examines the interaction of innovation and tradition at the stages of socio-political transformations that are crucial for Iran and highlights the arsenal of propaganda tools that were used in this process. Archival documentary materials and poetry of journalistic nature, which are first introduced into scientific circulation, allow to hear the “real voice” of the direct participants and witnesses of the events of this period.

РОЗВИТОК ЕКОНОМІКИ ІРАНУ В УМОВАХ САНКЦІЙ

The article provides an attempt at complex analysis of the development of Iran`s economy under the sanctions imposed by the USA and other countries. Some background issues in the development of the modern Iranian regime have been considered. The role of the Iranian Revolution in the relations between Iran and the Western world has been analyzed. A brief historic overview of anti-Iranian sanctions has been given. The Iran hostage crisis in 1979 has been mentioned among the first events that lead to sanctions. According to the 1981 Algiers Accords, the USA promised to remove the freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran. Special attention has been paid to the nuclear program of Iran. The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant has been considered as a successful example of Iran’s nuclear program development. The point of view of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of Iran in 2005-2013, as well as opinions of other Iranian officials about nuclear energy have been considered. Also, the attitude of American officials to Iran (e.g. inclusion of Iran to the list of rogue states) has been considered. Iran is one of the few countries in the world that are able to construct nuclear weapons. So, the Western countries including the USA are trying to prevent Iran from achieving this, even though Iranian officials deny any military use of nuclear energy. The importance of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in 2015 has been underlined. The sceptical attitude of the President of the USA Donald Trump (2017-2021) to CLARIFY Iran’s professions of peace OR plans for peaceful engagement with Iran? has been noted. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act has been given as an example of anti-Iranian policy. The cases of attacks on tankers of Iran and other countries in the recent years have been mentioned. The example of the Shetab electronic banking clearance and automated payments system used in Iran and other countries is noted. It is mentioned that Iran’s automotive industry is comparatively successful. It is proved that the country’s economy has in general grown accustomed to the international sanctions. The importance of Iran`s political and economic cooperation with Russia, Syria, North Korea and other countries has been underlined. All of these countries are ruled by extremely authoritarian regimes. Attention is paid to the comparatively closed economic system of Iran that makes its complex study more difficult than it would otherwise be. The article has been written with the use of different scientific methods and the most up-to-date sources. It is of interest for researchers, students and other people who are interested in international economic relations.

İran'da Feminizmin Gelişimi

Kadim medeniyetlerin beşiği olarak uygarlık tarihi içerisinde müstesna bir yere sahip olan İran, coğrafi konumunun da etkisiyle birçok kültürün buluşma noktası olmuştur. Bu noktada bir medeniyetin gelişim sürecini takip ederken kadınların o kültür içerisindeki konumunu tespit etmek önemli bir gösterge olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Kadın olgusu bu kadim medeniyetin eski dönemlerinden itibaren özel bir incelemeye tabi tutulacak bir tarihsel süreç yaşamıştır. Bu araştırma İran’daki kadın algısının tarihsel sürecini çözümleme açısından belli dönemleri ele almaktadır. Bu doğrultuda İran’da kadın hakları bağlamında meydana gelen gelişme ve buna karşıt olarak gerilemeler değerlendirilmektedir. Kaçarlar dönemi, Sanayi Devrimi sonrası dünyada başlayan kadın hareketlerine paralel olarak önemli bir yere sahip olmakla beraber sonrasında kurulan İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’nin kadına bakış açısı izlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Ele alınan dönemin olayları kadının hak mücadelesi bağlamında incelenirken, bunların İran siyasi, sosyal ve kültürel hayatındaki yeri de tespit edilmeye çalışılmaktadır.

Determination of the amount of Sanitary Water Flow from Dams based on the Quality of Drinking Water: A Case Study, Taleghan River, Iran

Background: Given the crisis of water shortage and the industrial development in Iran, comprehensive water-resource management and planning to handle the water quality of the rivers are the critical issues to tackle with. The concentration of river pollutants is a function of both the quantity and quality of the river flow regime. In this regard, the construction of large dams leads to quantitative and qualitative changes in downstream rivers. These changes are effective in the health of the river water for uses such as drinking, agriculture, and industry. Therefore, in addition to the quantity of water needs of rivers, their quality needs to be also considered. Objectives: This study aimed to analyze issues related to the sanitary water flow of large dams. Our case study was the Taleghan River dam, Alborz Province, Iran, on which Taleghan reservoir was built to supply some part of the water needed by Greater Tehran, Iran. Methods: This study examined a 22-km long section of the river at the riffle of Taleghan Dam in Alborz Province (103 km from Karaj), Iran. The average annual and monthly discharges of the river in four 6-km-apart stations were estimated. The statistics of eight hydrometric stations and a discharge-surface method were used to calculate the average annual discharge of each sub-basin downstream of Taleghan Dam. Moreover, the discharge non-dimensionalization method, along with the observational statistics of the index station, was used to calculate the average monthly discharge in the examined stations. The Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) software (version 4.0) was then utilized to determine the values ​​of river flow rates hydraulically. Additionally, water quality parameters were compared with the standard concentrations proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) for drinking-water quality to examine possible changes in pollutant concentrations during the study. Correlation and regression statistical tests in SPSS software (version 24) were then used to analyze the relationship between discharge and pollutant concentration. Results: The experimental equation of Q = 0.0372A0.8641 was obtained to estimate the discharge based on the sub-basins area using the discharge-surface method. The average annual discharge at stations 2, 3, and 4 (B, C, and D) were estimated at 1.39, 2.11, and 3.39 m3/s, respectively, using this equation. Subsequently, the average monthly discharges in the studied stations in September were calculated at 0.21, 0.29, and 0.46 m3/s, respectively. Afterward, the discharge was measured using HEC-RAS software (version 4.0) in the same month at 0.34, 0.44, 0, and 0.62 m3/s, respectively. The examination of water quality values from ​​among the 17 water quality parameters revealed that physicochemical elements, pH concentration, lead (Pb), and electrical conductivity were higher than the standard concentration of drinking water proposed by the WHO. Conclusion: A model was presented to estimate sanitary water flow by performing correlation tests and linear regression calculations between the river discharge at the dam downstream and the concentration of water quality parameters. According to the proposed model, the minimum flow of sanitary water was estimated at 1.82 m3/s to be considered to release from the dam in the driest month of the year. Therefore, the release of water as the minimum flow of sanitary water less than 1.82 m3/s was not allowed in any other month of the year.

Determination of the amount of Sanitary Water Flow from Dams based on the Quality of Drinking Water: A Case Study, Taleghan River, Iran

Introduction: Given the crisis of water shortage and the industrial development in Iran, comprehensive water-resource management, planning, and serious handling of water quality of the rivers in Iran are the critical issues to tackle with. The concentration of river pollutants is a function of both the quantity and quality of the river flow regime. In this regard, the construction of large dams leads to quantitative and qualitative changes in downstream rivers. These changes are effective in the health of the river environment for such uses as drinking, agriculture, and industry. Accordingly, it is essential to consider the quality of river water in addition to the amount of river water needs. Materials and Methods: This study examined a 22-km long section of the river at the riffle of Taleghan Dam in Alborz Province (103 km from Karaj), Iran. The average annual and monthly discharges of the river in four 6-km-apart stations were estimated. The statistics of eight hydrometric stations and a discharge-surface method were used to calculate the average annual discharge of each sub-basin downstream of Taleghan Dam. Moreover, the discharge non-dimensionalization method, along with the observational statistics of the index station, was used to calculate the average monthly discharge in the examined stations. The Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (RAS-HEC) software was then utilized to determine the values ​​of river flow rates hydraulically. Additionally, water quality parameters were compared with the standard concentrations proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) for drinking-water quality to examine possible changes in pollutant concentrations during the study. Correlation and regression statistical tests in SPSS software (version 24) were then used to analyze the relationship between discharge and pollutant concentration. Results: The experimental equation of Q = 0.0372A0.8641 was obtained to estimate the discharge based on the sub-basins area using the discharge-surface method. The average annual discharge at stations 2, 3, and 4 (B, C, and D) were estimated at 1.39, 2.11, and 3.39 m3/s, respectively, using this equation. Subsequently, the average monthly discharges in the studied stations in September were calculated at 0.21, 0.29, and 0.46 m3/s, respectively. Afterward, the discharge was measured using HEC-RAS software in the same month at 0.34, 0.44, 0, and 0.62 m3/s, respectively. The examination of water quality values from ​​among the 17 water quality parameters revealed that physicochemical elements, pH concentration, lead (Pb), and electrical conductivity were higher than the standard concentration of drinking water proposed by the WHO. Conclusion: A model was presented to estimate sanitary water flow by performing correlation tests and linear regression calculations between the river discharge at the dam downstream and the concentration of water quality parameters. According to the proposed model, the minimum flow of sanitary water was estimated at 1.82 m3/s to be considered to release from the dam in the driest month of the year. Therefore, the release of water as the minimum flow of sanitary water less than 1.82 m3/s was not allowed in any other month of the year.

Plausible scenarios for microturbine technology development: case study of an Iranian national technological program

Purpose Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran). Design/methodology/approach This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers. Findings This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket. Originality/value The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.

Systematic analysis of development in Iran’s tourism market in the form of future study: A new method of strategic planning

Future study is vital now more than ever for countries to develop tourism and attract international tourists. The main purpose of this development is to gain benefits, especially economic ones. Modern methods of future study, especially scenario building, are helpful in addressing issues at the national and regional scale because of their flexible strategies. According to the applied nature of the study, data were collected in two ways: reviewing previous studies and using questionnaires. The questionnaires were in the form of a cross-impact matrix and were self-administrated. The data were analyzed using MICMAC analysis and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the MICMAC method indicated that 10 variables have key/predominant roles in terms of influence in the development system of Iran’s tourism market. In the second phase of the study, 34 possible states of the key variables were defined. The results of the Scenario-Wizard method indicated that four scenarios have strong consistencies, and among those only one is a driver that has ideal and desirable characteristics and conditions for implementation.