Destructive Events Research Articles

Influence of Teleconnection Factors on Extreme Precipitation in Henan Province under Urbanization

Urban extreme precipitation is a typical destructive hydrological event. However, the disaster-causing factors of urban extreme precipitation in Henan Province have rarely been discussed. In this study, daily precipitation data of 11 stations covering a disaster-affected area in “21.7” rainstorm event from 1951 to 2021 and hundreds of climatic indexes set were selected. First, the Granger causality test was adopted to identify the dominant teleconnection factors of extreme precipitation. Then, the effects of teleconnection factors on extreme precipitation in four design frequencies of 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.001% in typical cities of Henan Province were analyzed by using regression and frequency analysis. Finally, the future variation was predicted based on CMIP6. The results show that: (1) The West Pacific 850 mb Trade Wind Index, Antarctic oscillation index, and other factors exert common influence on disaster-affected cities. (2) Teleconnection factors are the dominant force of urban extreme precipitation in most cities (50.3–99.8%), and area of built-up districts, length of roads, area of roads, and botanical garden areas are the key urbanization indicators affecting extreme precipitation. (3) In the future scenarios, the duration and intensity characteristics of urban extreme precipitation will increase, and the growth rate will increase monotonically with the recurrence period.

MONITORING IS ONE OF THE MAIN SAFETY FACTORS OF TAILINGS STORAGE FACILITIES

Tailings or tails are a common byproduct of metal and mineral extraction. Typically, from ore-dressing and processing enterprises, tailings are pumped into tailings storage facilities (TSFs) which are constructed using earth-filled dams. Under improper management, tailings can have a systematic adverse impact on the environment, human health, and safety. Besides, sewage pollution and dust emissions can be potentially toxic to humans, animals, or plants. One of the key challenges currently faced by the mining sector is the industry-wide initiative to implement the most effective and efficient methods for monitoring tailings storage facilities. In the event of the physical destruction of a tailings storage facility, there can arise acute and potentially very dangerous consequences. In such cases, liquid materials of TSF can inundate the environment causing significant impact and even loss of life. Managing tailings storage facilities during and after the completion of field development is a long-term responsibility of mining companies, and it is regulated by various normative systems. TSF management should be effective throughout the entire operational lifespan, from the initial feasibility assessment of the project to the closure and post-closure. Managing critical control means is one of the main tasks facing the mining and metallurgical industry, aiming to minimize the number of fatal cases and large-scale disasters. Therefore, the rational utilization of tailings storage facilities is an integral part of corporate operational and risk management strategies. Managing critical control means is defined as an approach to managing low-probability, large-scale destructive events such as catastrophic accidents at tailings storage facilities. Achieving this goal requires technological efforts to utilize the most reliable methods for monitoring tailings storage facilities. Keywords: tails, tailings storage facilities, monitoring.

METEOROLOGICAL TSUNAMIS FROM ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS – A HAZARD FOR COASTAL REGIONS AND PORTS

Meteorological tsunamis, or meteotsunamis, are similar to tsunami waves that are generated by seismic or volcanic activity, except they are forced through the atmospheric effects. The main forcing mechanism is an abrupt change in sea surface atmospheric pressure propagating over the ocean. These may be due to atmospheric effects or volcanic eruptions. Meteotsunamis are considered as a multiresonant phenomenon where destructive events occur only when a coincidence of several crucial factors takes place at the same time. These include (Pattiaratchi and Wijeratne, 2015): (1) the generating atmospheric system; (2) the continental shelf and slope topography; and, (3) the topography and geometry of the coastline (harbours, bays, river mouths etc.). All three of the conditions described above depend on the coastal topography and bathymetry as the speed of the shallow water waves is dependent on the water depths. Meteotsunamis are a global phenomenon with many regions have particular names that identify this phenomenon with different forcing mechanisms. In this paper, an overview of the occurrence of meteotsunamis in Australia will be provided through the analysis of sea level measurements and/or currents with an emphasis of their effects in ports and harbours.

Analysis and sensitivity study of steam explosion loads

Steam Explosion is a destructive event that may arise from the mixing of the molten fuel (corium) with the liquid coolant (water, sodium) during the course of a severe accident. Due to its high complexity and very specific related conditions, the phenomenon is still subject to numerous uncertainties. MC3D is a CFD software for the simulations of 3D multiphase flows and is used to evaluate steam explosion loads through a specific application called EXPLO. The present paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of steam explosion, as computed with MC3D-EXPLO, using a simple one-dimensional test case. The ultimate goal is to better understand the behavior of the code itself in order to give orientations for improvements. An in-depth analysis of the current knowledge and main points of modeling is at first provided, highlighting the major uncertainties. The analysis of pressure shock propagation in two-phase liquid/gas flows is then performed. It allows to propose an explanation of the difficulties encountered to obtain strong explosions with UO2/ZrO2 melts from a distant trigger in one-dimensional geometries such as in the KROTOS installation. The general cases of 3-phase flows are then examined with details, as a function of the melt and vapor volume fractions. A comparison of the behavior with the classical analytical detonation model is given and the competition between the fragmentation and heat transfer in terms of time scales is outlined. Finally, the impact of major modeling issues are discussed and conclusions are provided for recommendations of improvements.

Fire Protection Principles and Recommendations in Disturbed Forest Areas in Central Europe: A Review

Forest fires are becoming a more significant problem in Central Europe, but their danger is not as high as that in Southern Europe. The exception, however, is forest fires occurring in disturbed areas (windthrow and bark beetle outbreak areas), which are comparable in severity and danger to the most serious forest fires. In this study, we describe the current situation in Central European countries in terms of fire protection for disturbed areas in managed forests and forest stands left to spontaneously develop (secondary succession). If a country has regulations and strategies in this area, they are often only published in the local language. In this review, we combine information from all Central European countries and summarize it in a unified international language, provide an opportunity for local authorities to express their own experiences, and integrate data from worldwide scientific research. Thus, this paper may be considered a universal guide for managing fire protection and preparedness in disturbed areas and can serve as a reference for the establishment of strict legislative rules at the state level. These laws must be obligatory for all stakeholders in individual countries. The motivation for this study was two large forest fires in an area left to spontaneously develop in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park in the Czech Republic and Harz Mountains in Germany in the summer of 2022. These incidents revealed that fire prevention legislation was inadequate or nonexistent in these areas. The strategy of the European Union is to increase the size of protected areas and spontaneous development areas. Therefore, we consider it necessary to provide governments with relevant information on this topic to create conditions for better management of these destructive events.

Resilient Communities in Disasters and Emergencies: Exploring their Characteristics

This paper discusses the capacity of communities to be resilient in the face of disasters. This is the question of what allows communities to rebuild after a major destructive event and preferably to “build back better.” The paper lists six qualities of resilient communities drawn from the literature researching these events: organizations are flexible; they have strong leadership; there is strong community learning; they are effective at collective problem solving and cooperation; social capital and civil society are strong; and communities effectively engage with helping institutions beyond their boundaries. The paper relates each quality to social capital, to the ways the three types of social capital—bonding, bridging, and linking—are interconnected, and to preparatory methods that might be used to strengthen social capital so that communities may be more resilient.

Weather Events Associated with Strong Earthquakes and Seismic Swarms in Italy

This study discusses the possible relationship between potentially destructive seismic events, earthquake swarms, and intense weather events occurring in the same epicentral zone at time intervals ranging from one day to a few weeks. The objective of the present study is, therefore, to analyze the interaction between the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere in order to propose, prospectively, a new hydro-climatic model to be applied not only in Italy, where this research was carried out. The study concerns some of the most intense Italian earthquakes starting from 1920, with the destructive event in Lunigiana, in North Western Apennines, until the recent earthquake swarm that hit the Emilia-Romagna region followed, as in the cases analyzed in this research, by strong atmospheric disturbances. The recurrence associating seismic events with atmospheric precipitation allows us to propose some hypotheses about the triggering mechanism. In tectonically stressed areas, during pre-seismic and seismic phases, the release of gases from the ground and electrical charges near active faults is known. It is hypothesized that water condensation nuclei are carried by radon gas on atmospheric gases, also originating from cosmic rays in the upper atmosphere, generated by air ionization.

PROBLEMS OF ENSURING BUDGETARY SECURITY OF THE STATE DURING MARTIAL LAW

Larysa Sidelnykova 
 Email:larisa1907s@gmail.com
 Doctor of Economics, Professor Kherson National Technical University 
 Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine 
 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7182-2923
 Oksana Posadnieva 
 Email:posadnevaoksana@gmail.com
 PhD in Economics, Associate Professor Kherson National Technical University 
 Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine 
 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8721-5124
 
 Abstract. The article examines the assessment of the budgetary security of the state in periods of macroeconomic shocks. The balance of the State Budget of Ukraine over the past 10 years is analyzed. A chronic deficit of the state budget are revealed. The main reasons for the budget deficit are given. It is noted that the chronic budget deficit is the main destructive factor that leads to a decrease in budget security. The place of budgetary security in the general economic security of the state is shown. The main indicators that characterize the level of budgetary security of the state are described. Special attention is paid to indicators that depend on the level of budget balance. The main reasons for the growth of the deficit during the previous destructive events in the Ukrainian economy and the factors that contributed to the growth of the deficit during the Russian-Ukrainian war are indicated. The main indicators of Ukraine's budgetary security over the past 10 years are analyzed. A significant deterioration of budgetary security indicators in 2022 is established. A significant decrease in the level of GDP in 2022 and its decisive impact on indicators of budgetary security are revealed. It is noted that the decrease in the level of budgetary security leads to a decrease in the level of debt security of the state. Forecast figures for certain budgetary security indicators are provided. The main directions for using budget funding for further strengthening of budgetary security are suggested.

Debris Management in Turkey Provinces Affected by the 6 February 2023 Earthquakes: Challenges during Recovery and Potential Health and Environmental Risks

On 6 February 2023, southeastern Turkey was struck by two major earthquakes that devastated 11 provinces. Tens of thousands of buildings collapsed and more were later demolished. During post-event field surveys conducted by the authors, several disposal sites set up in the most affected provinces were detected and checked for suitability. Based on field observations on the properties of sites and their surrounding areas as well as on the implemented debris management activities, it is concluded that all sites had characteristics that did not allow them to be classified as safe for earthquake debris management. This inadequacy is mainly attributed to their proximity to areas, where thousands of people reside. As regards the environmental impact, these sites were operating within or close to surface water bodies. This situation reveals a rush for rapid recovery resulting in serious errors in the preparation and implementation of disaster management plans. In this context, measures for effective debris management are proposed based on the existing scientific knowledge and operational experience. This paper aims to highlight challenges during earthquakes debris management and related threats posed to public health and the environment in order to be avoided in future destructive events.

Analogue study on the classification and identification of landslide dynamics based on spectral features of slidequake signals

Landslides are powerful, destructive events that can generate slidequakes. Monitoring passive slidequake signals can facilitate hazard assessments, dynamic calculations, and early warning. However, there have been few direct observations of landslide dynamics. This hampers the classification and identification of landslide movements based on spectral features of slidequake signals. Here, physical analogue tests were conducted to simulate the landslide movements of three boundary conditions: open flat (OF), gully constrained curve (GC) and barrier blocking (BB). Different slope gradients, movement paths, blocking conditions and slide material structures were employed in 96 experiments to analyse the spectral features of slidequake signals and compensate for the lack of active observation data. Via spectrum identification, we analysed the vibration characteristics of the collected three-component high-frequency slidequake signals of analogue modelling landslides. Then, we modelled the landslide dynamics through feature extraction of the fractal box dimension of the slidequake signals. The OF and BB slidequake signals were identified with a prediction accuracy of 87.5%. Hence, the accurate classification and identification and capability for early warning of remote landslide dynamics based on passive slidequake signal monitoring is presented.

High-resolution precipitation monitoring with a dense seismic nodal array

Accurate precipitation monitoring is crucial for understanding climate change and rainfall-driven hazards at a local scale. However, the current suite of monitoring approaches, including weather radar and rain gauges, have different insufficiencies such as low spatial and temporal resolution and difficulty in accurately detecting potentially destructive precipitation events such as hailstorms. In this study, we develop an array-based method to monitor rainfall with seismic nodal stations, offering both high spatial and temporal resolution. We analyze seismic records from 1825 densely spaced, high-frequency seismometers in Oklahoma, and identify signals from nine precipitation events that occurred during the one-month station deployment in 2016. After removing anthropogenic noise and Earth structure response, the obtained precipitation spatial pattern mimics the one from a nearby operational weather radar, while offering higher spatial (~ 300 m) and temporal (< 10 s) resolution. We further show the potential of this approach to monitor hail with joint analysis of seismic intensity and independent precipitation rate measurements, and advocate for coordinated seismological-meteorological field campaign design.

Destructive breakdown studies of irradiated LGADs at beam tests for the ATLAS HGTD

In the past years, it has been observed at several beam test campaigns thatirradiated LGAD sensors break with a typical star shaped burn mark whenoperated at voltages much lower than those at which they were safely operatedduring laboratory tests. The study presented in this paper was designed todetermine the safe operating voltage that these sensors can withstand. Manyirradiated sensors from various producers were tested in two test beamfacilities, DESY (Hamburg) and CERN-SPS (Geneva), as part of ATLAS HighGranularity Timing Detector (HGTD) beam tests. The samples were placed in thebeam and kept under bias over a long period of time in order to reach a highnumber of particles crossing each sensor. Both beam tests lead to a similarconclusion, that these destructive events begin to occur when the averageelectric field in the sensor becomes larger than12 V/μm.

Seismic activity at the eastern Pyrenean termination

Although the seismic activity at the eastern Pyrenees is nowadays moderate and sparse, with events usually not exceeding magnitudes 4.5, this area has been affected in the past by the most destructive event occurred in the Pyrenees, reaching an intensity of IX, whose seismogenic structure is not well understood and still under debate. In order to progress in the knowledge of these structures, we present here the results derived from a 14 months-long broad-band seismic deployment focused on the Cerdanya Basin, but encompassing the eastern termination of the Pyrenees. The dense station coverage has allowed us to obtain accurate hypocentral locations, as well as up to 23 focal mechanisms from local low-magnitude earthquakes. In addition to a relatively sparse seismicity, several clusters of seismic events located in well-defined, small areas and depth ranges have been identified. The results show a few low-magnitude seismic events located in the southern limit of the Cerdanya Basin that could be related to oblique secondary faults within the footwall of the Têt Fault, the major tectonic structure in the area. Our data shows also that the Capcir Fault has associated seismicity, with some of the events located out of the fault plane, perhaps on secondary fault branches. To the east, a cluster of low-magnitude events is detected in the epicentral area of two relatively large earthquakes occurred recently. Further west, the Maladeta Massif has a sustained seismic activity, although its origin does not seem to be related to the most relevant structure in the area, the North Maladeta Fault. Regarding focal mechanisms, most of them show normal fault solutions with nodal planes NW-SE oriented, which agree with the extensional regime perpendicular to the axis of the chain derived from the seismic and geodetic data.

Climate policy must account for community-specific socio-economic, health, and biophysical conditions—evidence from coastal Alaska

Climate warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events are creating intensifying and more frequent hazards for human populations inhabiting the coast. In Alaska’s remote coastal communities, flooding and erosion are rapidly increasing due to the combined effect of sea level rise, more frequent storm surges, and increasingly powerful wave action from lack of sea ice. This paper presents survey results documenting socio-economic and psychological livelihood impacts and relocation preferences as reported by residents of a remote coastal Indigenous community. We quantified direct costs of lost or damaged private property, affected community infrastructure, and interruption of public services and found that the resulting financial hardship adds to existing economic challenges and climate stressors. Findings underline a community-level preoccupation with coastal climate threats that manifests primarily in intrusive and distressing thoughts of consequences from storms and other destructive climatic events. We highlight the need to monitor more broadly livelihood impacts to inform the design of innovative risk management tools to moderate financial hardship and strengthen community-driven action. We conclude that new policy responding to the needs of remote Indigenous communities affected by repetitive environmental disasters needs to account for a complex array of community and culture-specific socio-economic, health, and biophysical factors that require frequent co-produced assessments to capture rapidly changing conditions at the local scale.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of Portuguese masonry buildings

According to the 2011 National Housing Census, masonry buildings comprise more than 50% of the Portuguese building stock. This type of construction has demonstrated a poor performance during the destructive events that struck Portugal in the last century (e.g., 1909 M6.3 Benavente, 1969 M7.8 Algarve, 1980 M6.9 Azores). While some efforts have been made towards the vulnerability assessment of individual masonry buildings or the residential building stock at the national scale, this building class has been the target of limited research. In this study, a comprehensive database of material and geometric properties of granite and limestone buildings was used to generate complex 3D numerical models. These models were subjected to nonlinear time history analysis to derive fragility curves considering the record-to-record and building-to-building variability. The structural damage was defined using two novel engineering demand parameters, and the resulting fragility functions were compared against other existing models. These results can be used directly to generate earthquake scenarios at the country scale or in probabilistic seismic risk analysis to identify regions where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Single event burnout failures caused in silicon carbide power devices by alpha particles emitted from radionuclides

Single event burnouts (SEB) threaten the safe operation of high voltage SiC power devices in a wide range of applications. The triggering of this failure mechanism has been widely documented for the case of heavy ions and neutron interactions. In this study, it is demonstrated experimentally that destructive SEB events can be triggered in SiC and Si power devices by single alpha particles in the 5 MeV energy range, such as those emitted by radioactive isotopes. Such SEB events have been observed for blocking voltages lower than the breakdown voltage of the investigated devices. The experimental setup making use of an Am241 planar source to quantitatively observe the current pulses resulting from irradiation is described in detail. The mechanism of SEB initiation by single alpha particles has been investigated by the means of TCAD simulation.The experimental and simulation results show that alpha particles can trigger SEB in both SiC and Si power devices, with SiC devices exhibiting a graver susceptibility. In particular, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal runaway is a consequence of current filamentation in the main blocking junction of the devices, due to generation of a streamer along the ionization track produced by the impinging particle. Furthermore, it is shown that the increased susceptibility of SiC devices to destructive SEB is due to the stronger local field, thinner depleted region and higher junction capacitance than in Si, resulting in higher available energy for the destructive event. The present findings may have practical implications. Given the simplicity and economy of the procedure, alpha sources can be used as a complementary technique to nucleon irradiation for the characterization of the susceptibility of power devices to SEB. Finally, the possible impact on the triggering of SEBs by alpha emitters present as contamination near the active areas of the device should be reconsidered.

Assessing the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction strategies on the regional recovery of critical infrastructure systems

Communities depend on critical infrastructure systems to support their regular operations and future development. Destructive events, such as natural disasters, threaten to disrupt service to these systems and the communities they support. Strategies designed to reduce the impacts from disasters and other events are therefore an important consideration for community planning. At a regional level, coordination between communities supports the efficient use of resources for implementing disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures and completing post-disaster repairs to meet the needs of all residents. Coordination is challenging, however, due to the complexity of regional systems and competing stakeholder interests. This work presents a case study model of regional water, wastewater, and power systems, and demonstrates the effect of seismic hardening and increased resource availability on post-earthquake repair requirements and critical infrastructure recovery. Model results indicate that implementing DRR strategies can reduce required repair costs by over 40 percent and outage severity by approximately 50 percent for the studied sectors. Not all strategies are effective for all sectors and locations, however, so this work discusses the importance of comprehensive, coordinated, and accessible emergency planning activities to ensure that the needs of all residents are considered.

Study on the interaction between information dissemination and infectious disease dissemination under government prevention and management

In recent years, public health emergencies have occurred frequently around the world, and infectious diseases are one of the most destructive and influential events. The coupling effect between infectious disease transmission and information dissemination has been a research hotspot that scholars have focused on in recent years. Analyzing how to effectively prevent the impact of information dissemination on the process of infectious disease transmission from the perspective of government prevention and control has important theoretical significance. Firstly, this paper investigates the COVID-19 epidemic and establishes a coupled multi-channel network UFAT-SEIR transmission model under government prevention and management based on the characteristics of infectious disease transmission and information transmission. Considering the individual's ability to recognize information, the interaction between false information and real information, and the impact of group polarization, the step function is used to explore the results of the user's information decision-making process. Secondly, the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA) is constructed to derive the transmission threshold of infectious diseases related to the information transmission layer. Finally, simulation is performed based on the impact of government prevention and management actions on parameters. The research findings can provide relevant strategies and suggestions for the government to prevent and control the spread of infectious diseases.

Radio Direction Finding Method to Mitigate Tsunami Risk in Sierra Leone

In this study, the Radio Direction Finding method is proposed for the detection of electromagnetic signals, in the VLF band, to try to anticipate the occurrence of potentially destructive geophysical events. The experimentation concerns the interception of electromagnetic anomalies in Sierra Leone, in the five-day time window, associated with seismic events that could potentially generate tsunamis. The area of investigation is Sierra Leone, whose coastline is subjected to tidal wave hazards triggered by earthquakes generated in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Although Sierra Leone is not affected by recurrent earthquakes, there is nevertheless a low probability, estimated at 2 percent, of the occurrence of destructive earthquakes in the next 50 years. Also in estimates, the risk of rogue and potentially damaging waves is estimated to strike the Sierra Leone coast at least once in the next 10 years. The Radio Direction Finding experiment carried out continuously 24/7, has shown a close relationship between increased radio-anomalies, in the frequencies of 6,000 Hz, a time window between electromagnetic anomaly detection and the imminence of an earthquake, and higher frequency times for the risk of earthquake occurrence in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

How did high temperature extremes in southern Xinjiang, China induce the repaid rise in jujube futures prices in the summer of 2021?

In the summer of 2021, southern Xinjiang, China, experienced a temporary period of high temperature extremes. Because of this weather event, jujube futures prices rose by more than 50% in a short time. To clarify the influence mechanism of these two events, we investigated the current status of jujube farming and collected investors’ online comments. We analysed these comments specifically using textual analysis tools, such as co-word networks. Results showed that the concerns of investors about the reduction in jujube production triggered by high temperature extremes were the primary reason for the rapid rise in jujube futures prices. Especially in combination with the cultivation density of jujube and their adaptability to the growing environment, a new understanding can be obtained. That is to say, when a crop is excessively densely cultivated in a region and is highly sensitive to a meteorological variable anomaly at a certain growth stage, a less destructive local extreme weather event could induce severe panic among investors regarding production reduction and thus influence the normal changes in futures price. In response to the impact mechanisms revealed in this study, we proposed policy recommendations, such as strengthening the degree of crop damage disclosure and designing weather futures derivatives, to address similar situations in the future. This study not only fills the gap in the research on the impact paths of high temperature extremes on jujube futures prices but also has a reference value for securing the stability of futures prices of related agricultural products in the future.