Probability Of Destruction Research Articles

On comparing configuration graphs robustness in a random environment

We consider configuration graphs with vertex degrees distributed independently according to the power law, with a truncated parameter τ normally distributed on the interval (a, b). By computer simulation we study the robustness of such graphs to both random and targeted destructions in the cases of preserving graph connectivity and «forest fire». In the first case, the models of the dependence of the size of the giant component and the probability of graph destruction on the initial graph size N and the percentage of removed vertices were obtained. In the case of the forest fire, the main interest was in the number of vertices remaining after the fire. Along with the two «fire starts» (random ignition and targeted lightning-up of the node with the highest degree), we considered the two fire propagation processes: with a fixed probability of fire transition through a graph edge and a random one. For both types of external destructive impacts, we compared the new results with the ones obtained previously for the configuration graphs with a fixed parameter of node degree distribution and the one uniformly distributed on the interval [a, b].

Albedo of an irradiated plane-parallel atmosphere with finite optical depth

Abstract We analytically derive albedo for a plane-parallel atmosphere with finite optical depth, irradiated by an external source, under the local thermodynamic equilibrium approximation. Albedo is expressed as a function of the photon destruction probability ε and optical depth τ, with several parameters such as dilution factors of the external source. In the particular case of the infinite optical depth, albedo A is expressed as $A=[1 + (1-W_J/W_H)\sqrt{3\varepsilon }/3]/(1+\sqrt{3\varepsilon })$, where WJ and WH are the dilution factors for the mean intensity and Eddington flux, respectively. An example of a model atmosphere is also presented under a gray approximation.

Selection of Amino Acid Chirality via Neutrino Interactions with 14N in Crossed Electric and Magnetic Fields.

Previous work has suggested that the chirality of the amino acids could be established in the magnetic field of a nascent neutron star from a core-collapse supernova or massive collapsar. The magnetic field would orient the 14N nuclei, and the alignment of its nuclear spin with respect to those of the electron antineutrinos emitted from the collapsing star would determine the probability of destruction of the 14N nuclei by interactions with the antineutrinos. Subsequent work estimated the bulk polarization of the 14N nuclei in large rotating meteoroids in such an environment.The present work adds a crucial piece of this model by describing the details by which the selective 14N nuclear destruction would produce molecular chiral selectivity. The effects of the neutrino-induced interactions on the 14N nuclei bound in amino acids polarized in strong magnetic fields are studied. It is shown that electric fields in the reference frame of the nuclei modify the magnetic field at the nucleus, creating nuclear magnetizations that are asymmetric in chirality. The antineutrino cross sections depend on this magnetization, creating a selective destructive effect. The environmental conditions and sites in which such a selection mechanism could occur are discussed. Selective destruction of D-enantiomers results in enantiomeric excesses which may be sufficient to drive subsequent autocatalysis necessary to produce the few-percent enantiomeric excesses found in meteorites and subsequent homochirality.Molecular quantum chemical calculations were performed for alanine, and the chirality-dependent effects studied were included. A preference for left-handed molecules was found, and enantiomeric excesses as high as 0.02% were estimated for molecules in the electromagnetic conditions expected from a core-collapse supernova. Key Words: Amino acids—Supernovae—Antineutrinos—Enantiomeric excess—Chirality. Astrobiology 18, 190–206.

Теоретическая концепция определения критической точки кризисных процессов в социально-экономической системе

From the position of the modern theory of crisis management, a hypothesis of the presence of a critical point in the development of a socio-economic system has proposed. Depending on the severity of the crisis, limited resources and time, the relationship between the degree of controllability and destructible system has considered. The degree of crisis affects the replenishment of the resource mass of the system, as a result, the available lack of time and resources leads to loss of controllability and at the same time an increase in the probability of destruction. Moreover, if at a certain moment we start implementing anti-crisis measures, then we manage not to lose control over the managed processes and reduce the losses from the crisis and, most importantly, to preserve the stability of the socio-economic system. The feedback of the functions of controllability and destructibility makes it possible to determine the critical point of crisis processes in the socio-economic system. Constant monitoring and evaluation of the position of the critical point contribute to forecasting, early identification of crisis processes, and early preparation for them in order to ensure the sustainable and continuous functioning of socio-economic systems at various levels. The monitoring indicator is the basis for building an anti-crisis monitoring system. Such a parameter should be an integral indicator, represented by a set of variables, each of which reflects the state of the enterprise from different angles. This indicator allows you to assess the probability of destruction of the enterprise and determine the place on the trajectory of its development. One of the options for determining the degradability of the system in the article proposes to use bankruptcy assessment models. The provisions of the theory of crisis management in finding the critical point of crisis processes in socio-economic systems have developed.

ПРИЧИНЫ И ВИДЫ БРАКА В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ НАПРЯЖЕННО-ДЕФОРМИРУЕМОГО СОСТОЯНИЯ И ОЦЕНКА ВЕРОЯТНОСТИ РАЗРУШЕНИЯ ЗАГОТОВКИ ПО КРИТЕРИЮ КОКРОФТА – ЛЭТЭМА В ПРОЦЕССЕ ХОЛОДНОЙ ОБЪЕМНОЙ ШТАМПОВКИ КОМБИНИРОВАННЫМ МЕТОДОМ ОБЖИМА-РАЗДАЧИ

In this paper, the data on the stress-strain state of the billet during the combined “crimpingdistribution” process. The probability of destruction of a billet during the course of operations at its dangerous stages is considered. The main types of marriage are identified, such as the formation of cracks, crushing, under-shaping. The recommendations and reasons for its occurrence are given. For the prevention of cracks, it is proposed to conduct annealing to relieve internal stresses. Do not crush the workpiece. We bring to your attention several options for use: As a rule, except when they can not be processed. Also, during model simulation, the model did not match the actual data. The received discrepancy consists in occurrence of probability of destruction of a stamped blank in a crimped part that contradicts the experimental data. Within the framework of this, for a better and more reliable analysis of fracture, a correction criterion was introduced that takes into account the value of the average stresses over the height of the billet. The introduction of a new criterion in a more complex and reliable form, the destruction of the preparation in the process of deformation in the program complex. It is carried out by comparison of the level of the experimental data and the results of the simulation. On the basis of the obtained data, the applicability of the correction criterion in practice and the possibility of its application in the compilation of technological regimes in research and industrial exhibitions are confirmed. In the future, it is planned to compile a mathematical model for the purpose of determining kinematic and energy-force parameters.

The impact of technological change on employment: The case of press digitisation

Based on an exhaustive dataset of all journalists in France, this article investigates the impact of digitisation on the employment of journalists in the press industry. In particular, focus is put on the effect played by the level of digitisation of newspapers and magazines, some of which have resisted digitisation, while others have embraced it. We find that greater levels of digitisation tend to increase the likelihood of job creation and reduce the probability of job destruction. Likewise, higher level of digitisation leads, on average, to higher earnings for journalists. At the same time, though, higher digitisation also increases sharply the likelihood that jobs created are of casual contractual natures, as opposed to regular permanent contracts. Yet, we find that digitisation also has a positive impact on the earnings of journalists on a casual contact (though, far less than for ‘tenured’ journalists). More surprisingly, we show that digitisation also reduces job instability of those journalists on a casual contract, as a greater level of digitisation reduces the likelihood of job destruction, even for casual jobs. Though, while digitisation tends to change the contractual nature of job created, embracing digitisation appears to be a ‘lesser evil’ than resisting technological change.

The Resonance Initiation in the Steel Headframes from the Technogenic Seismicity

In the work the problem of complicating engineering structures and structures is raised, which in turn increases their vulnerability to natural phenomena. Each structure has some probability of destruction, an attempt to bring this probability to zero is accompanied by a rapid increase in its value. In addition, structures cannot be completely free from the risk of destruction due to uncertainties in the requirements for the system, the spread of the technical properties of building materials, the difficulties in adequately modeling the behavior of the system even with the use of modern software systems. The need to take into account the frequency composition of technogenic earthquakes which will allow to perform the necessary protection of structures that are particularly long-lasting from the resonance effect is considered and justified.

Assessment of Selected Cannons according to the Probability of Target Destruction

The article discribes combat effectiveness of aircraft automatic cannons and compares combat effectiveness of M61A1 rotary cannon with cannons being used on aircraft of the Czech Air Force. The procedure and examples of probability calculation for aerial target destruction are presented for hight rate of fire weapons firing one burst. The procedure is shown for a step law and an exponential law of target destruction and for the constant and changing target hit probability. Basic characteristics for all types of rapid-firing cannons which are part of standard armament of modern aircraft are included in this paper.

Object defense with preventive strike and false targets

In this paper, optimal strategies for the defender and the attacker are studied. The defender moves first, allocating its limited resources into three diverse measures: launching a preventive strike, building false targets, and protecting the genuine object. It is assumed that launching a preventive strike will expose the genuine object, thus during this measure the defender will not simultaneously build false targets. The attacker moves after observing the actions taken by the defender, allocating its resources into three measures: protecting its own base from a preventive strike, building false bases, and attacking the genuine object. For each of the defender's given strategies, the attacker tries to maximize the destruction probability of the genuine object. Comparing the expected vulnerability of the object, the defender decides whether to launch a preventive strike or build false targets. The strategies of the attacker and the defender are illustrated with numerical examples, and the optimal strategies are found.

Vulnerability to geomorphological hazards of an Arctic cliff-nesting raptor, the rough-legged hawk

Increase in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change may enhance the risk of destruction by geomorphological processes of nests or dens used by Arctic wildlife. We assessed nest vulnerability to mass movements and identified environmental factors associated with the persistence of nesting structures of rough-legged hawks (Buteo lagopus), a species that typically nests on steep slopes or cliffs. The study was conducted on Bylot Island (Nunavut) where 82 permanent hawk nesting structures, built mainly on sedimentary rocks, were monitored from 2007 to 2015. More than a quarter of known nests were destroyed during the course of the study and among those still intact, more than half were associated with a moderate to high risk of being destroyed. Nest survival analysis suggested a relatively short persistence of rough-legged hawk nesting structures on Bylot Island compared to other Arctic cliff-nesting species. Nest destruction probability increased for nests built on unconsolidated sediments, with heavy rainfall and temperature during the summer. The anticipated increase in precipitation and temperature due to climate change is likely to augment the exposure of hawk nests to mass movements, which could ultimately reduce the availability of suitable sites for the reproduction of this Arctic-nesting raptor.

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF NECESSITY IN REPAIR AND ITS TYPE FOR BUILDING AND ITS ELEMENTS

The existing normative documents consider 100%-wear as an extreme limit for operation of constructional element or structure. While using probabilistic rate of physical wear and determining the necessity in repair 100%-wear is assumed on the basis of physical state of constructional elements and structures that corresponds to minimum allowable reliability level. The paper contains description of a new method for determination of necessity in repair and its type for building and its elements on the basis of probabilistic assessment of their physical wear which is mated with residual reliability. Such method of calculation is carried out by determination of initial and threshold limit values for failure or destruction probabilities and density of probability distribution. According to these values time wear rate is selected and it ensures higher specific growth of failure and destruction probabilities at initial running period of the element operation. Then a planned wear assessment of building elements is carried out on a periodical basis. In the case when the planned rate of probability growth is equal to 0.4–0.5 from the critical value it is necessary to execute a mean current repair and when the probability level reaches value of 0.8 or even more in comparison with a critical one then it is necessary to carry out a capital repair in order to reduce probability value which will be close to the initial one. Such planned assessment of physical wear is made according to regulatory indirect indicators and in the case when intensity of physical wear exceeds the planned level it is necessary to determine strength characteristics of building elements while using instrumental physical methods. Taking into account a relative novelty of probabilistic assessment of necessity in repair and its type for building and its elements during operational period it is recommendable to carry out additional theoretical and statistic investigations in order to include this method in normative technical construction documents.

Development and Application of a Building Group Destruction Probability Model Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami Experience

Development and Application of a Building Group Destruction Probability Model Based on the Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami Experience

Zero age planetary orbit of gas giant planets revisited: reinforcement of the link with stellar metallicity

In 2005 we suggested a relation between the optimal locus of gas giant planet formation, prior to migration, and the metallicity of the host star, based on the core accretion model and radial profiles of dust surface density and gas temperature. At that time, less than two hundred extrasolar planets were known, limiting the scope of our analysis. Here we take into account the expanded statistics allowed by new discoveries, in order to check the validity of some premises. We compare predictions with the present available data and results for different stellar mass ranges. We find that the Zero Age Planetary Orbit (ZAPO) hypothesis continues to hold after a one order of magnitude increase in discovered planets. In particular, the prediction that metal poor stars harbor planets with an average radius distinctively lower than metal rich ones is still evident in the statistics, and cannot be explained away by chaotic planetary formation mechanisms involving migration and gravitational interaction between planets. The ZAPO hypothesis predicts that in metal poor stars the planets are formed nearer their host stars; as a consequence, they are more frequently engulfed by the stars during the migration process or stripped of their gaseous envelops. The depleted number of gas giant planets around metal poor stars would then be the result of the synergy between low formation probability, as predicted by the core accretion model, and high destruction probability, for the ones that are formed.

Comparison of the Active Species in the RF and Microwave Flowing Discharges of N2 and Ar–20 %N2

We report a detailed comparison between RF and microwave (HF) plasmas of N2 and Ar–20 %N2 as well as in the corresponding afterglows by comparing densities of active species at nearly the same discharge conditions of tube diameter (5–6 mm), gas pressure (6–8 Torr), flow rate (0.6–1.0 slm) and applied power (50–150 W). The analysis reveals an interesting difference between the two cases; the length of the RF plasma (~25 cm) is measured to be much longer than that of HF (6 cm). This ensures a much longer residence time (10−2 s) of the active species in the N2 RF plasma [compared to that (10−3 s) of HF], providing a condition for an efficient vibrational excitation of N2(X, v) by (V–V) climbing-up processes, making the RF plasma more vibrationally excited than the HF one. As a result of high V–V plasma excitation in RF, the densities of the vibrationally excited N2(X, v > 13) molecules are higher in the RF afterglow than in the HF afterglow. Destruction of N2(X, v) due to the tube wall is estimated to be very similar between the two system as can be inferred from the γv destruction probability of N2(X, v > 3–13) on the tube wall (2–3 × 10−3 for both cases) obtained from a comparison between the density of N2(X, v > 3–9) in the plasmas to that of the N2(X, v > 13) in the long afterglows. Interestingly enough, densities of N-atoms and N2(A) metastable molecules in the afterglow regions, however, are measured to be very similar with each other. The measured lower density of N2 + ions than expected in the HF afterglow is rationalized from a high oxygen impurity in our HF setup since N2 + ions are very sensitive to oxygen impurity .

Estimation of the probability of mechanical systems breakdown by technical state modeling

This study considers the general model of estimating changes in technical state of mechanical systems caused by external action. This model makes it possible to estimate their effect on the probability of breakdowns. The considered examples include the destruction probabilities for crank rods of the opposite compressor to be simultaneously affected by cyclical loading and wear.

The Importance of Global Extinction in Climate Change Policy

AbstractFor problems like global climate change that may involve global extinction, we must not just focus, as most economic analysts do, on the trading‐off of current consumption (current mitigation investment reduces consumption) against future consumption (less need for future investment), but also consider the effects of mitigation investment in reducing the extinction probabilities. Future utility/welfare values should only be discounted at the uncertainty of their realization, making these values even in the far future important as this discount rate should be very low (0.01 per cent per annum or less). Immediate and strong actions of environmental protection including greenhouse gas reduction may thus be justified despite high consumption discount rates (about 5 per cent). Unexpectedly, an increase in the extinction probabilities may increase or decrease our willingness to reduce them; precise conditions are given. The related intuition that, the higher the probability of destruction of your house by fire, the less willing you will be in investing on things like interior decoration that does not change the probability of destruction, but the higher your willingness to pave a fire clearance that does reduce the probability of destruction, is examined.

Temperature modes and critical velocities during wire drawing

Rod and wire product manufacturing is usually accompanied by residual stresses. The reason for this is both plastic deformation and potential thermoplastic deformation that occurs due to the contact frictional heating of metal surfaces. Undesirable residual stresses in the surface layers affect the accuracy and increase the probability of hardware destruction that can be observed in drawing product manufacturing. The authors of the article propose a method of determining the contact heating conditions based on the criteria of residual stress prevention. Temperature conditions causing thermoplastic deformations are determined according to thermoelasticity equations. Critical values are calculated for the temperature difference between the center and the surface of the stretched wire, at which the latter transits to a plastic state followed by residual stress formation. The limiting drawing velocities for a number of nonferrous metals (copper, zirconium, titanium) are defined. The excess of those top velocities will lead to undesirable residual stresses in the stretched product. It is proposed as a recommendation to increase the critical speed by creating hydrodynamic (fluid) friction conditions in metal products manufacturing.

THE RESEARCH OF A STRESSED STATE BY AN ASYMMETRICAL ROLLING OF A BAND IN ROLLS WITH A REVERSE TAPER

In the paper the author sets out the results of a stressed state by an asymmetrical rolling of a band in rolls with a reverse taper. The analysis of the results shows that by an asymmetrical rolling of a band in rolls with a reverse tape more favourable conditions of the stressed state are provided. They promote the removal of all internal defects of a blank at the expense of a high hydrostatic pressure, as well as the decrease of an axial tension. That reduces the probability of metal destruction in a lengthwise direction.

Optimal resource distribution between protection and redundancy considering the time and uncertainties of attacks

This paper presents a study of the problem of resource allocation between increasing protection of components and constructing redundant components in parallel systems subject to intentional threats. The defender aims at minimizing the entire system destruction probability during certain time horizon by using the best resource allocation strategy which is determined by redundant components construction pace. Different from previous works which focus on the static resource allocation strategy, we propose a dynamic resource distribution strategy with geometric construction pace model and show its advantage over constant construction pace. The vulnerability model considering a most probable attack time and uncertainties of attack time estimates is provided and a destruction probability is evaluated to quantitatively define the ability of the system to survive an intentional attack. The random time of intentional attack is represented by truncated normal distribution. Through the modeling of the most probable attack time and quantifying the uncertainty of the knowledge of defender about this time, the influence of these factors on the optimal resource allocation strategy is investigated. Proper decision regarding the resource allocation is crucial in protecting safety-critical systems, i.e. nuclear power plant, communication base station, power network. Case studies are presented to illustrate the influence and strategy.

Using multivariate statistics to explore trade‐offs among spatial planning scenarios

SummaryScenario planning can be useful to guide decision‐making under uncertainty. While systematic conservation planning can create protected‐area networks for multiple and complex reserve–design scenarios, planners rarely compare different reserve networks explicitly, or quantify trade‐offs among scenarios.We demonstrate the use of multivariate statistics traditionally applied in community ecology to compare reserves designed under different scenarios, using conservation planning for beaches in South Africa as an example. Twelve reserve–design scenarios were run in Marxan in a hierarchical experimental design with three levels: including/excluding the probability of site destruction; two different cost types; and three different configurations of existing terrestrial and marine reserves.Multivariate statistics proved to be useful tools in the conservation planning context. In our case study, they showed that the trade‐off associated with including the probability of site destruction during coastal reserve design depended on the cost type: if the cost is related to the site‐destruction probability then reserves are significantly larger; if not, then reserves are significantly more costly. In both cases, the configuration of existing reserves lockeda prioriinto the solutions was more important and resulted in significantly larger and more costly reserves.Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates a novel application of multivariate statistical tools to robustly quantify potential trade‐offs among diverse sets of reserve–design scenarios. These statistics can be applied: to support negotiations with stakeholders and decision‐makers regarding reserve configurations in the face of uncertainty; in reserve–design sensitivity analyses; and in priority setting for future research and data collection to improve conservation plans.