Destination Patterns Research Articles

Industrial Migration: A Case Study of Destination by City‐Surburban Origin within the New York Metropolitan Area*

Since the early stages of industrial development, the outflow of jobs from central city to suburb has been discernable. This intrametropolitan dispersion process, slowed by depression and war, gained impetus following World War II and accelerated during the ensuing decades. By the 1970s, however, a new dimension had been added to the dispersion process—especially in the mature urban areas of the North‐east and Midwest—that being the outflow of jobs from suburbs themselves to other regions of the U.S. Given this new interregional dimension, a multi‐jurisdictional strategy to stem the job outflow is in order. This paper provides an input into the framework for developing such a strategy through an examination of destination patterns of jobs by intrametropolitan point of origin using New York City and Nassau‐Suffolk as a case study.

An extension of Dial's algorithm utilizing a model of tripmakers' perceptions

Dial has developed a probabilistic multipath traffic assignment algorithm which is very efficient. However, the assignment of trips to paths is based on a logit model which has some undesirable properties. The purpose of this paper is to extend Dial's algorithm by utilizing a simple model of tripmakers' perceptions and behavior. An important advantage these models have is that they can be calibrated through the study of tripmakers' behavior on a limited set of trips rather than through the study of origin and destination patterns and link flows on a large network. Three traffic assignment models are presented which are computationally equivalent to Dial's model and which can be implemented by making minor changes in his algorithm. One of the new models, based on path likelihoods, contains Dial's model as a special case. The assumptions required about tripmakers' perceptions to obtain this special case seem unreasonable and this explains some of the undesirable properties of Dial's model. In its general form, the new model eliminates some of these undesirable properties. However, like Dial's model, it generally allocates a disproportionate number of trips to portions of a road network in which there is a large number of choices of minor variations in route. The other two models, based on arrival likelihoods and turn likelihoods, both overcome this shortcoming. These two models have different interpretations in terms of tripmaker behavior. The model based on turn likelihoods is the most intuitive and contains Gunnarsson's multipath traffic assignment model as a special case.

Toward Dynamic Models of Traveller Behavior and Point Patterns of Traveller Origins

This paper is concerned with the mathematical modelling of individual travel behavior over both space and time. The goal is to show that it is possible to define quantitatively changing spatial forms and to link these with generating processes. To illustrate, models and data are developed in the paper to describe a selected spatial form and the kind of process which could create it. First, the study uses the circular normal probability density function as a model to define the distribution of traveller origin points about a sample destination point (a bank) for each of five years. The function successfully fits the data, although its parameters vary with time. A learning process is invoked to explain this latter variation and the variation in form it implies: information declines with distance from a node, but gradually learning occurs and the form given by the pattern of destinations at each distance from the node alters. A linear learning model is specified to define this process rigorously, and the model fits data for selected nodes (stores) in Uppsala, Sweden. There seems to be little reason why the results are not generalizable. Clearly, dynamic, mathematical models of travel behavior are required, rather than the static or equilibrium ones which are still widespread in geography and planning.

Some factors affecting the incidence and distribution of week‐end recreation motoring trips

This paper investigates differences in recreational trip activity between car owners with varying personal characteristics. A sample survey of car owners was carried out in Lewes, Sussex. The overall trip frequency, complexity and extent, destination pattern and party composition are described. Whether or not a trip was made during the survey period, trip duration and trip destination (inland or coast) were related to the age, income terminal education age and social class of household heads and household size. All the independent variables were significantly associated with whether a trip was made, although in three cases the direction of the association was unexpected. The only other significant associations were between social class and duration, and income and destination. Time budget data offer some explanation of these findings. /TRRL/