Design Reference Mission Research Articles

Quantifying the risk of medical evacuation in spaceflight

IntroductionTraditionally, NASA mission planners have used a heuristic and qualitative approach to design medical systems based on prior experience; however, this approach may result in implicit bias in design. The risk of needing to return to definitive care (RTDC) or medevac, has been particularly difficult to quantify due to the complexity of exploration spaceflight. The Informing Mission Planning through Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool is a probabilistic risk assessment approach designed by NASA to model medical risk in long duration spaceflight. This paper discusses how this tool can inform RTDC risk and improve the health and safety of astronaut crews. MethodsIMPACT was developed by subject matter experts using an evidence-based approach and can be used to quantify the risk of exceeding the onboard medical capabilities. Within the model, RTDC occurs when a condition meets a specific threshold that exceeds the on-board capabilities and requires a higher level of care. A notional lunar surface design reference mission (DRM) was modeled using IMPACT, and the RTDC rate was analyzed. ResultsOf the 119 medical conditions evaluated, thirty-four were preassigned to have zero probability of RTDC based on lack of acuity. Thirty-one conditions used the need for inpatient hospitalization or admission to intensive care as the RTDC surrogate. Twenty-six conditions used the probability of needing surgery, and ten conditions used treatment failure rates as the RTDC surrogate. The remaining 18 conditions had unique surrogates that did not fall into the above categories or were assigned a 100 % probability of RTDC due to their definition. In the sample DRM, the overall risk for RTDC was 0.32 events per mission. DiscussionQuantifying medical risk for human spaceflight is challenging but important in designing medical systems that support the health and performance of our astronaut crews. IMPACT can use the best available evidence to quantify the risk of an RTDC event based on mission parameters and help mission planners make informed design decisions. More work is underway to further refine the model and evidence that drives the RTDC calculation to improve model fidelity and utility for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

Lunar SmallSat Missions with Chemical-Electrospray Multimode Propulsion

Multimode spacecraft propulsion combines two or more propulsive modes into a single system using a single propellant. In this study, a multimode system combining a monopropellant chemical decomposition mode with an electric electrospray mode is considered for specific NASA-relevant lunar small satellite missions. This multimode concept is compared to all-chemical and all-electric approaches for four design reference missions (DRMs) in terms of feasibility, propellant mass consumed, and transfer time. Point solution trajectories are developed using NASA’s General Mission Analysis Tool for each propulsion system. This is the first study to consider this multimode concept for specific missions with high-fidelity force modeling. The results demonstrate the multimode approach can complete three of the four DRMs within the allotted propellant budget, while the all-chemical approach fails to complete two DRMs and the all-electric system fails to complete one DRM. Across the three feasible DRMs, the multimode approach completes the mission in 11–55% less time than the all-electric approach while consuming up to 33% less propellant than the all-chemical approach. The number of switching events and the minimum required mode switching time are quantified for the first time, with the latter having values between nearly instantaneous and 112.5 days, depending on the mission.

Lunar Orbit acquisition of the Korea Pathfinder lunar orbiter: Design reference vs actual flight results

The Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), officially named as Danuri, is the Republic of Korea's first spacecraft to orbit the Moon. The goal of KPLO is to secure core deep space technology for future space exploration in Korea and contribute to lunar science by gathering data from the lunar orbit for one year. This paper presents the results of KPLO's Lunar Orbit Acquisition (LOA) phase in detail, with a particular focus on the operational results of Flight Dynamics (FD). During the LOA phase, the KPLO FD team experienced many expected and unexpected issues. These issues were mitigated by making real-time updates to the LOA phase Design Reference Mission (DRM). The paper also presents the results of the Orbit Determination (OD) and performance of each Lunar Orbit Insertion (LOI) maneuver conducted during the actual flight operation. The importance of considering operational constraints when designing the DRM is emphasized by presenting lessons learned based on actual flight experiences. Unlike the original KPLO LOA phase DRM, KPLO successfully achieved the final mission orbit using only three LOI burns, instead of the planned five LOI burns and an Orbit Trim Maneuver (OTM). Despite the extensive revisions made to the DRM, all mission requirements were still fulfilled during the final lunar orbit insertion, taking into account the significant operational constraints.

Mars mission capabilities enabled by nuclear thermal propulsion

As part of the Artemis era of space exploration, space agencies will be working together with their industry partners to establish systems and infrastructure that enable sustained Lunar missions and develop capabilities for Mars. Lockheed Martin has a longstanding history of designing, building, and operating systems for deep space applications, from Viking to Orion. Lockheed Martin develops concepts, trades, and early system designs for Moon and Mars exploration to enable future missions. In 2016, Lockheed Martin presented a vision for achieving crewed exploration of Mars. Known as Mars Base Camp (MBC), this design reference mission envisioned a crewed vehicle in Martian orbit from which astronauts could perform excursions to Phobos and Deimos and perform telerobotic exploration of the Martian surface, including sample return. This concept served as an “existence proof” for a novel, practical, and affordable path to enable human exploration of the Martian system. In 2017, an update was published that included the production of propellant from water and a single-stage fully reusable Mars lander concept. Then in 2021, Lockheed Martin introduced a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) configuration of Mars Base Camp, a technology that will be greatly enabling for crewed missions to Mars. This paper matures the design of the NTP configuration of Mars Base Camp and explores the Mars mission capabilities that the NTP technology will enable. These investigations include optimized trajectories for faster transit to Mars and an analysis of abort scenarios that are made possible by the high thrust and performance of NTP. The results provide insight into the performance and capabilities that are realized when NTP technology is matured and integrated into a Mars transit vehicle. The paper will also describe initial surface infrastructure capabilities that significantly enhance sortie science operations, including mobility and power. The resulting updated Mars Base Camp serves as an example of what is possible with current technologies and technologies under development. The MBC reference mission builds on the capabilities that will be developed and demonstrated through Artemis missions, enabling a viable, sustainable long-term Mars exploration program, with the first crewed Mars mission possible in the 2030s.

Selecting Medical Conditions Relevant to Exploration Spaceflight to Create the IMPACT 1.0 Medical Condition List.

INTRODUCTION: Medical conditions occurring in spaceflight pose risks to the crew and the mission and these risks will be exacerbated during exploration-class missions. Probabilistic risk assessment is a method used at NASA to quantify this risk for low-Earth orbit operations. Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) is a next-generation tool suite that will perform these assessments for exploration-class missions. It will require a robust list of medical conditions of significant likelihood and/or consequence to exploration-class missions to accurately inform the tool suite.METHODS: The IMPACT 1.0 Medical Condition List (ICL 1.0) contains 120 conditions selected in the context of a 210-d cis-lunar, Mars analog design reference mission. The conditions were selected via a systematic process that preserved institutional knowledge from nine prior condition lists. Conditions were prioritized for inclusion in the ICL 1.0 based on history of occurrence in spaceflight, concurrence among the nine source lists, and concurrence among subject matter experts.DISCUSSION: The ICL 1.0 has notable advantages over its predecessor lists in that it is more specific to exploration-class missions, contains a greater number, breadth, and depth of conditions, and was derived via consensus across multiple medical specialties.Kreykes AJ, Suresh R, Levin D, Hilmers DC. Selecting medical conditions relevant to exploration spaceflight to create the IMPACT 1.0 Medical Condition List. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2023; 94(7):550-557.

Risk trade-space analysis for safe human expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Space vehicle docking system standardization

The International Docking System Standard (IDSS) was developed and establish to aid on-orbit crew rescue and joint operations between different spacecraft. For the International Space Station (ISS), the IDSS has successfully enabled Global interoperability for Commercial Crew and it is now being extended to the Artemis campaign. Similarly, as more companies, agencies, and nations announce their intentions to explore and occupy Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Cis-Lunar space, including the Lunar surface, it is a natural supposition that new, vehicle interface standards will be required to support the build-up of infrastructure for campaign-based exploration or permanent occupation by national and multi-national Agencies, Industries, and Companies.A surface version of the IDSS, a.k.a. IDSS-Surface (IDSS-S), is under consideration at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the docking discipline leads responsible for the leadership of technical development and negotiation of the original IDSS over a decade ago. The IDSS-S, like its predecessor, will ultimately detail the physical geometric mating interface and design load requirements to ensure physical interoperability and to support a broad set of design reference missions which, if accommodated, increases the probability of successful Lunar surface docking between different modules enabling the accessibility and inclusivity required for multi-national, sustainable Lunar exploration.

Task impairment: A novel approach for assessing impairment during exploration-class spaceflight missions

Long duration deep space exploration missions require an innovative assessment for medical impairment. Task Impairment is a novel, dynamic, and mission-appropriate impairment paradigm which will replace Functional Impairment, the metric used currently by the NASA Integrated Medical Model for probabilistic risk assessment on the International Space Station. To derive Task Impairment, the Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary List of Crew Tasks was used as the source of likely exploration mission tasks. Tasks were divided into one or more human system task categories (e.g., cardiopulmonary, cognitive, etc.). Subject matter experts across five medical specialties then reviewed medical conditions from the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces condition list to determine which of the 18 human system task categories were impaired in best and worst-case scenarios for treated and untreated variants of each condition. If a human system task category was determined to be affected by a condition, every task assigned to that category was presumed to be, at least partially, impaired. The resulting total tasks impaired by each medical condition were used to calculate Task Impairment values. As a direct assessment of a crewmember's ability to perform mission specific tasks, Task Impairment has the capacity to yield a higher fidelity measure of reduced crew ability than previous techniques. This technique is easily adapted to future proposed design reference missions and may be useful in defining mission phase-specific disability as well as a future medical loss of mission objectives metric.

Heliocentric Effects of the DART Mission on the (65803) Didymos Binary Asteroid System

The Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) is NASA’s first kinetic impact–based asteroid deflection mission. The DART spacecraft will act as a projectile during a hypervelocity impact on Dimorphos, the secondary asteroid in the (65803) Didymos binary system, and alter its mutual orbital period. The initial momentum transfer between the DART spacecraft and Dimorphos is enhanced by the ejecta flung off the surface of Dimorphos. This exchange is characterized within the system by the momentum enhancement parameter, β, and on a heliocentric level by its counterpart, β ⊙. The relationship between β and the physical characteristics of Dimorphos is discussed here. A nominal set of Dimorphos physical parameters from the design reference asteroid and impact circumstances from the design reference mission are used to initialize the ejecta particles for dynamical propagation. The results of this propagation are translated into a gradual momentum transfer onto the Didymos system barycenter. A high-quality solar system propagator is then used to produce precise estimates of the post-DART encounters between Didymos and Earth by generating updated close approach maps. Results show that even for an unexpectedly high β ⊙, a collision between the Didymos system and Earth is practically excluded in the foreseeable future. A small but significant difference is found in modeling the overall momentum transfer when individual ejecta particles escape the Didymos system, as opposed to imparting the ejecta momentum as a single impulse at impact. This difference has implications for future asteroid deflection campaigns, especially when it is necessary to steer asteroids away from gravitational keyholes.

Space Radiation Protection Countermeasures in Microgravity and Planetary Exploration.

Background: Space radiation is one of the principal environmental factors limiting the human tolerance for space travel, and therefore a primary risk in need of mitigation strategies to enable crewed exploration of the solar system. Methods: We summarize the current state of knowledge regarding potential means to reduce the biological effects of space radiation. New countermeasure strategies for exploration-class missions are proposed, based on recent advances in nutrition, pharmacologic, and immune science. Results: Radiation protection can be categorized into (1) exposure-limiting: shielding and mission duration; (2) countermeasures: radioprotectors, radiomodulators, radiomitigators, and immune-modulation, and; (3) treatment and supportive care for the effects of radiation. Vehicle and mission design can augment the overall exposure. Testing in terrestrial laboratories and earth-based exposure facilities, as well as on the International Space Station (ISS), has demonstrated that dietary and pharmacologic countermeasures can be safe and effective. Immune system modulators are less robustly tested but show promise. Therapies for radiation prodromal syndrome may include pharmacologic agents; and autologous marrow for acute radiation syndrome (ARS). Conclusions: Current radiation protection technology is not yet optimized, but nevertheless offers substantial protection to crews based on Lunar or Mars design reference missions. With additional research and human testing, the space radiation risk can be further mitigated to allow for long-duration exploration of the solar system.

Technologies for Future Venus Exploration

The purpose of this white paper is to provide an overview to the NRC Decadal Survey Inner Planets Sub–Panel on key technologies required for future Venus exploration missions. It covers both heritage technologies and identifies new technologies to enable future missions in all three mission classes. The technologies will focus on mission enabling and enhancing capabilities for in situ missions, because most orbiter related sub–systems are considered heritage technologies. This white paper draws heavily on the recently completed Venus Flagship Mission study that identified key technologies required to implement its Design Reference Mission and other important mission options. The highest priority technologies and capabilities for the Venus Flagship Design Reference mission consist of: surface sample acquisition and handling; mechanical implementation of a rotating pressure vessel; a rugged–terrain landing system; and a large scale environmental test chamber to test these technologies under relevant Venus–like conditions. Other longer–term Venus Flagship Mission options will require additional new capabilities, namely a Venus–specific Radioisotope Power System; active refrigeration, high temperature electronics and advanced thermal insulation. The white paper will also argue for a technology development program, since without it future Venus missions might not be achievable.

Role of LDSE for a Hypothetical Manned Space Rescue Vehicle

ABSTRACTThis article examines Loss‐Driven Systems Engineering (LDSE) utility via a thought experiment regarding harmonizing desirable characteristics for resilience, safety, reliability, security, and other loss‐driven specialty areas. Various design reference missions explore and assess required loss‐driven capabilities in automated flight operations for a hypothetical Manned Space Rescue Vehicle. Identifying key adversities to achieving mission success, and evaluating potential methods to avoid, withstand, and recover from loss caused by such adversities are central to this assessment. Such methods apply classical technical disciplines such as resilience, safety, reliability, survivability, and security in an integrated fashion, recognizing and respecting each discipline's expertise and proven methods, tools, and techniques. This article also examines the concurrent need to consider loss‐driven solution unintended consequences: the “First Do No Harm” medical concept ensuring adversity's “cure cannot be worse than the disease.” Finally, this article examines the potential to leverage flexibility and creativity in crew actions and adaptive systems to overcome unexpected adversity.

A robotically deployable lunar surface science station and its validation in a Moon-analogue environment

This article presents a system design and a surface operations concept for a robotically deployable, small scientific observatory on the lunar surface. The design reference mission scenario considers its implementation as part of larger international exploration mission such as the European Exploration Envelope Programme. The underlying science case particularly addresses scientific objectives for long term observations as part of scientific networks. Considered strawman payload for this surface station focuses on instruments which are – or could be – candidates for geophysical and astronomical observation networks. A seismometer, a radio experiment and an IR telescope have been taken as sizing case to assess the station’s system budgets. First part of the article looks at the station design from engineering perspective whether a small modular station can address common needs of such instruments such as a sustained operation in the lunar environment. Focus is given to design features to enable the station’s deployment by robotic assets. Secondly, the core unit of the conceptualized station has been built as engineering model including its basic system functions, interfaces to neighboring mission elements such as the lander vehicle and the rover and a set of geophones as representative for a science instrument. This hardware realization was used in a functional end-to-end demonstration from robotic deployment to delivery of geo-scientific data. The mission demonstration has been carried out in a Moon analogue field test on Mt. Etna, Sicily/Italy and confirmed the general feasibility of the proposed concept for lunar scientific exploration. Particularly, the evaluation of the acquired seismic data confirmed its suitability for sub-surface exploration. Results from the Moon analogue test are presented together with the design details of the surface station and the necessary conditions for its implementation and use in a robotic exploration scenario.

Constraining Exoplanet Metallicities and Aerosols with the Contribution to ARIEL Spectroscopy of Exoplanets (CASE)

Launching in 2028, ESA’s 0.64 m2 Atmospheric Remote-sensing Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) survey of ∼1000 transiting exoplanets will build on the legacies of NASA’s Kepler and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and complement the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by placing its high-precision exoplanet observations into a large, statistically significant planetary population context. With continuous 0.5–7.8 μm coverage from both FGS (0.5–0.6, 0.6–0.81, and 0.81–1.1 μm photometry; 1.1–1.95 μm spectroscopy) and AIRS (1.95–7.80 μm spectroscopy), ARIEL will determine atmospheric compositions and probe planetary formation histories during its 3.5 yr mission. NASA’s proposed Contribution to ARIEL Spectroscopy of Exoplanets (CASE) would be a subsystem of ARIEL’s Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) instrument consisting of two visible-to-infrared detectors, associated readout electronics, and thermal control hardware. FGS, to be built by the Polish Academy of Sciences Space Research Centre, will provide both fine guiding and visible to near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy, providing powerful diagnostics of atmospheric aerosol contribution and planetary albedo, which play a crucial role in establishing planetary energy balance. The CASE team presents here an independent study of the capabilities of ARIEL to measure exoplanetary metallicities, which probe the conditions of planet formation, and FGS to measure scattering spectral slopes, which indicate if an exoplanet has atmospheric aerosols (clouds and hazes), and geometric albedos, which help establish planetary climate. Our simulations assume that ARIEL’s performance will be 1.3× the photon-noise limit. This value is motivated by current transiting exoplanet observations: Spitzer/IRAC and Hubble/WFC3 have empirically achieved 1.15× the photon-noise limit. One could expect similar performance from ARIEL, JWST, and other proposed future missions such as HabEx, LUVOIR, and Origins. Our design reference mission simulations show that ARIEL could measure the mass–metallicity relationship of its 1000-planet single-visit sample to >7.5σ and that FGS could distinguish between clear, cloudy, and hazy skies and constrain an exoplanet’s atmospheric aerosol composition to ≳5σ for hundreds of targets, providing statistically transformative science for exoplanet atmospheres.

Traverses for the ISECG-GER design reference mission for humans on the lunar surface

This study explores the Design Reference Mission (DRM) architecture developed by Hufenbach et al. (2015) as a prelude to the release of the 2018 Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). The focus of this study is the exploration of the south polar region of the Moon, a region that has not been visited by any human missions, yet exhibits a multitude of scientifically important locations – the investigation of which will address long standing questions in lunar research. This DRM architecture involves five landing sites (Malapert massif, South Pole/Shackleton crater, Schrödinger basin, Antoniadi crater, and the South Pole-Aitken basin center), to be visited in sequential years by crew, beginning in 2028. Two Lunar Electric Rovers (LER) are proposed to be tele-robotically operated between sites to rendez-vous with crew at the time of the next landing. With engineering parameters in mind we explore the feasibility of tele-robotic operation of these LERs between lunar landing sites, and identify potential high interest sampling locations en-route. Additionally, in-depth sample collection and return traverses are identified for each individual landing site across key geologic terrains that also detail crew Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA). Exploration at and between landing sites is designed to address a suite of National Research Council (2007) scientific concepts.

Maximized exoEarth candidate yields for starshades

The design and scale of a future mission to directly image and characterize potentially Earth-like planets will be impacted, to some degree, by the expected yield of such planets. Recent efforts to increase the estimated yields, by creating observation plans optimized for the detection and characterization of Earth-twins, have focused solely on coronagraphic instruments; starshade-based missions could benefit from a similar analysis. Here we explore how to prioritize observations for a starshade given the limiting resources of both fuel and time, present analytic expressions to estimate fuel use, and provide efficient numerical techniques for maximizing the yield of starshades. We implemented these techniques to create an approximate design reference mission code for starshades and used this code to investigate how exoEarth candidate yield responds to changes in mission, instrument, and astrophysical parameters for missions with a single starshade. We find that a starshade mission operates most efficiently somewhere between the fuel- and exposuretime-limited regimes and, as a result, is less sensitive to photometric noise sources as well as parameters controlling the photon collection rate in comparison to a coronagraph. We produced optimistic yield curves for starshades, assuming our optimized observation plans are schedulable and future starshades are not thrust-limited. Given these yield curves, detecting and characterizing several dozen exoEarth candidates requires either multiple starshades or an ηEarth≳0.3.

SCIENCE PARAMETRICS FOR MISSIONS TO SEARCH FOR EARTH-LIKE EXOPLANETS BY DIRECT IMAGING

We use $N_{t}$, the number of exoplanets observed in time $t$, as a science metric to study direct-search missions like Terrestrial Planet Finder. In our model, $N$ has 27 parameters, divided into three categories: 2 astronomical, 7 instrumental, and 18 science-operational. For various "27-vectors" of those parameters chosen to explore parameter space, we compute design reference missions to estimate $N_{t}$. Our treatment includes the recovery of completeness $c$ after a search observation, for revisits, solar and antisolar avoidance, observational overhead, and follow-on spectroscopy. Our baseline 27-vector has aperture $D = 16$m, inner working angle $IWA = 0.039''$, mission time $t = 0-5$ years, occurrence probability for earthlike exoplanets $\eta = 0.2$, and typical values for the remaining 23 parameters. For the baseline case, a typical five-year design reference mission has an input catalog of $\sim$4700 stars with nonzero completeness, $\sim$1300 unique stars observed in $\sim$2600 observations, of which $\sim$1300 are revisits, and it produces $N_{1}\sim50$ exoplanets after one year and $N_{5}\sim130$ after five years. We explore offsets from the baseline for ten parameters. We find that $N$ depends strongly on $IWA$ and only weakly on $D$. It also depends only weakly on zodiacal light for $Z < 50$ zodis, end-to-end efficiency for $h > 0.2$, and scattered starlight for $\zeta < 10^{-10}$. We find that observational overheads, completeness recovery and revisits, solar and antisolar avoidance, and follow-on spectroscopy are all important factors in estimating $N$.

A methodology to support strategic decisions in future human space exploration: From scenario definition to building blocks assessment

The human exploration of multiple deep space destinations (e.g. Cis-Lunar, NEAs), in view of the final challenge of sending astronauts to Mars, represents a current and consistent study domain especially in terms of its possible scenarios and mission architectures assessments, as proved by the numerous on-going activities about this topic and moreover by the global exploration roadmap. After exploring and analysing different possible solutions to identify the most flexible path, a detailed characterisation of several Design Reference Missions (DRMs) represents a necessity in order to evaluate the feasibility and affordability of deep space exploration missions, specifically in terms of enabling technological capabilities.The study presented in this paper was aimed at defining an evolutionary scenario for deep space exploration in the next 30 years with the final goal of sending astronauts on the surface of Mars by the end of 2030 decade. Different destinations were considered as targets to build the human exploration scenario, with particular attention to Earth–Moon Lagrangian points, NEA and Moon. For all the destinations selected as part of the exploration scenario, the assessment and characterisation of the relative Design Reference Missions were performed. Specifically they were defined in terms of strategies, architectures and mission elements. All the analyses were based on a pure technical approach with the objective of evaluating the feasibility of a long term strategy for capabilities achievement and technological development to enable future space exploration.This paper describes the process that was followed within the study, focusing on the adopted methodology, and reports the major obtained results, in terms of scenario and mission analysis.

Radiation engineering analysis of shielding materials to assess their ability to protect astronauts in deep space from energetic particle radiation

An analysis is performed on four typical materials (aluminum, liquid hydrogen, polyethylene, and water) to assess their impact on the length of time an astronaut can stay in deep space and not exceed a design basis radiation exposure of 150mSv. A large number of heavy lift launches of pure shielding mass are needed to enable long duration, deep space missions to keep astronauts at or below the exposure value with shielding provided by the vehicle. Therefore, vehicle mass using the assumptions in the paper cannot be the sole shielding mechanism for long duration, deep space missions. As an example, to enable the Mars Design Reference Mission 5.0 with a 400day transit to and from Mars, not including the 500day stay on the surface, a minimum of 24 heavy lift launches of polyethylene at 89,375lbm (40.54tonnes) each are needed for the 1977 galactic cosmic ray environment. With the assumptions used in this paper, a single heavy lift launch of water or polyethylene can protect astronauts for a 130day mission before exceeding the exposure value. Liquid hydrogen can only protect the astronauts for 160days. Even a single launch of pure shielding material cannot protect an astronaut in deep space for more than 180days using the assumptions adopted in the analysis. It is shown that liquid hydrogen is not the best shielding material for the same mass as polyethylene for missions that last longer than 225days.

Outlook of possible European contributions to future exploration scenarios and architectures

Building upon the important experience acquired with the development of the International Space Station, the major spacefaring countries are working within the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) at the definition of a coordinated framework for expanding the human presence beyond the Low Earth Orbit, the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). The GER defines a long-range strategy for global exploration and include three major elements.•Common goals of ISECG participating agencies for space exploration.•Notional mission scenarios which are technically feasible and programmatically implementable. Two mission scenarios were defined in the 1st iteration of the GER: the “Asteroid Next” and the “Moon Next” mission scenarios.•Identification of near-term opportunities for coordination and cooperation related to e.g. the development of technologies, the implementation of robotic missions to destination of interest for closing strategic knowledge gaps which need to be addressed prior to human missions as well as the utilization of ISS for demonstration of exploration enabling capabilities.In 2009 two studies have been awarded by ESA to Industrial Teams led by Thales Alenia Space—Italy and by Astrium—Germany to define, analyze and assess optional European scenarios for future human spaceflight and exploration activities, and to derive the required capabilities for the investigated timeframe until the year 2033. Work on the European scenarios has been aligned with and informed by the international work on the GER.A conceptual design of different Building Block Elements, representing critical contributions to international Design Reference Missions (DRM's) included in the ISECG GER, has been performed and analyzed with respect to programmatic risks, budgets and required technologies. Key driving requirements for the analyzed Building Block elements have been derived from the international DRM's included in the GER.The interim outcomes of the human exploration scenario study will be presented, identifying opportunities for European Contributions to an international exploration undertaking.