Policy Design Research Articles

Optimal surrender policy for reverse mortgage loans

Abstract This study conducts an optimal surrender analysis of reverse mortgage (RM) loans offered to elderly homeowners as a financing option. Recent market evidence on borrower early surrenders has raised concerns about the marketability of RM products and their impact on the program viability. In this article, we derive the borrower optimal surrender strategy as a function of the underlying value of the home used as collateral for RM contracts with tenure payment option. Using a probabilistic approach to American option pricing, we present a decomposition result for the value of the contract as the sum of its European counterpart without the surrendering provision and an early exercise premium. The methodology allows policymakers to assess the financial incentive of their policy design, from which we explain the existing market evidence about borrower rational lapse by means of the resulting surrender boundary and reference probabilities.

Addressing infodemic for pandemic preparedness in the digital age: a focus on Middle Africa.

The 21st century has brought about a damaging information crisis, significantly challenging and undermining efforts to increase the uptake of scientific research evidence in both policy and practice. The World Health Organization (WHO) recognizes misinformation and disinformation as major drivers of pandemic spread and impact, dedicating a policy brief to pandemic preparedness on this issue. In this study, we examine the impact of mis/disinformation on the use of research evidence in public policy decision-making in West and Central Africa and reflect on how this can inform future pandemic preparedness. What factors affect the uptake of scientific evidence during disease outbreaks in Africa? We used the JBI Scoping Review and Prevalence/Incidence Review methodologies to synthesize the best available evidence. A DELPHI survey was conducted in two stages: the first gathered experiences from policymakers, practitioners, and citizens in Cameroon, Nigeria, and Senegal regarding mis/disinformation and its impact. The second stage explored potential situations related to the issues identified in the first stage. Qualitative data analysis was conducted using MAXQDA. The research identified the origins (n = 5), transmission platforms (n = 15), cases (n = 4), mitigation strategies (n = 6), and impacts (n = 4) of infodemic on policy design, implementation, and uptake. Online platforms were identified as the main source of infodemic in 53.3% of cases, compared to 46.7% attributed to offline platforms. We conclude that the severity of COVID-19 as a global pandemic has highlighted the dangers of mis/disinformation, with a considerable number of studies from Middle Africa demonstrating a significant negative impact on the uptake of health policies and to an extend evidence informed policy making. It is also imperative to consider addressing evidence hesitancy in citizens through innovative and indigenous approaches like storytelling. Digital technologies, especially social media, play a key role in the propagation of infodemics. For future pandemic preparedness, stakeholders must consider using digital tools and platforms to prevent and mitigate pandemics. This study adds new evidence to the existing body of evidence, emphasizing the need to address infodemics within the context of future pandemic preparedness in Middle Africa.

Transforming Social Policies and Institutions in a Capability Perspective: Agency, Voice and the Capability to Aspire

ABSTRACT The article suggests that putting the enhancement of capability to aspire and capability for voice centre stage of the design and implementation of social policies would entail a deep-seated transformation of such policies. Based on the receiver-doer-judge framework we explore what conditions are to be fulfilled to implement such a transformation, emphasising how the expansion of objective opportunity and entitlement sets should go hand in hand with an increased subjective sense of opportunity and entitlement. We then turn to examine what such transformed institutions would imply in terms of enhancing individual aspirations and capabilities on the one hand and increasing capacity for collective action and social change on the other one, emphasising the key role of capability for voice in both respects. We show how institutions and policies transformed in such a way would differ from dominant approaches to social policies such as social investment, which endorse a more adaptive approach to social policy. It is also suggested how Freire, Dewey and Khader’s ideas could be useful reference points towards the design and implementation of such transformed institutions.

Exploring the Role of Environmental Ethical Consideration in Advancing Green Growth: Perspectives from India

Aims: The current study explores the intricate nexus between environmental ethical considerations and green growth in the context of India, a country grappling with dual challenges of rapid industrialization and environmental sustainability. As India seeks to balance rigorous economic growth, ecological preservation and integration of ethical principles into environmentally friendly policy design it is necessary to understand the meaning of ethical consideration and green growth relationship. Theoretical Framework: The research aims to understand the interrelationship and implication of the of environmental ethical consideration into driving green growth, by exploring the challenges and prospects in context of India- a rapidly developing economy. This paper is structured in the form of exploration of available literature and through providing a vast perspective and strategic framework in regards of Indian policy makers and scenario in context of countries socio-economic and cultural structure. Methodology: The study explores the available literature in the field and synthesizes the challenges available in the path of green growth management. Analysis of barriers to green growth in developing country framework is done by identifying chances of market failure, underinvestment in green technologies, and the lack of clear ethical guidelines present in the Indian developmental structure. Results: The findings of this paper suggest the possibility of enhancing current scenarios to achieve what is needed to follow the path of green growth in economic context and coming future challenges. The findings are supported by rational policymaking and strategic investment, which can significantly advance India’s green economy, ensuring long term benefits and environmental well-being.

Cohort Survival of the K to 12 Student Entrants Towards the Development of Strategic Interventions Supportive to Cbea-mmsu Programs

The study was undertaken to determine the cohort survival rate of the pioneer batch of the K to 12 student entrants of the eight (8) degree programs at the College of Business, Economics and Accountancy (CBEA), identify the underlying factors triggering the student dropout and institutionalize an intervention program to support the successful retention and graduation of all students. The Reconstructed Cohort Method was used and places less demand on the availability of detailed data over time. This method makes three assumptions: dropouts never return to school; the promotion, repetition and drop-out rates observed in the last two years remain constant over the entire period in which the cohort is enrolled in school and the same rates apply to all students enrolled in a given year level, regardless of whether they previously repeated a subject. A comprehensive analysis on the data gathered was done to process the underlying factors which will serve as valuable inputs in the design of programs and policies to reduce the dropout rate and support the successful retention and graduation of students. Findings showed that the survival rate of the pioneer batch of the K to 12 student entrants of the different programs range from 55.5% (BS Accountancy) to 97.5% (BSBA HRM) or an average of 81.62%. Overall, the survival rate among the males is 84.14% and the females is 80.86%. Majority (81.03%) of the respondents who were not able to finish their schooling on time indicated academic-related as their reason. Others mentioned about personal/family concern (17.24) and one indicated career concern. Some of the suggested interventions supportive to CBEA programs include: the implementation of an institutionalized Academic Advising Program, conduct of series of Academic Advising workshop, Academic Counseling, referral, group counselling, a more aggressive admission interview, parent/guardian conference, peer tutorial, financial assistance program and documentation of academic advising and counseling sessions. In addition, Guidance counselors must be one of the signatories in the dropping out and shifting forms. A replication research study involving different programs in the university is recommended.

Decentralization and attitudes towards the environment: Survey-based evidence

Attitudes towards the environment are changing around the world. This may be due to greater awareness about environmental challenges, in part motivated by climate change, but also innovations in the policy landscape, such as those associated with decentralization, or the assignment of policymaking, administrative and political responsibilities to the subnational levels of administration. Decentralization brings the government closer to the people and creates room for bottom-up policy experimentation and citizen participation in policy design, which may influence attitudes. To shed light on these linkages, this paper provides survey-based empirical evidence based on data from the World Values Survey that exposure to decentralization contributes to more favorable attitudes towards the environment, controlling for personal and household characteristics of respondents, as well as country and cohort fixed effects.

Analysis about radiation risk perception among university students from San Carlos de Bariloche and radiological protection experts from Argentina

Radiation risk perception must be studied by communication and radiological protection specialists, taking account of engineering, social and cultural variables. An anonymous and voluntary survey was peformed to enquire about the radiation risk perception among university students and radiological protection experts from Argentina, and to become aware of how it is perceived compared to other health risks. A fifteen-question dedicated questionnaire was designed including socio-demographic variables and questions about work environment, risk perception and risk communication. A five-point Likert-type scale was used for most of the questions. Surveyed people were asked to compare radiological risks in medicine with other risks (i.e.: smoking, sports, leisure activities, stress). The research involved 10 (38.5%) experts, 25 (45%) physics and engineering students and 40 (100%) bio-images production bachelor students. The results were analysed based on the professional or academic background. Although participants considered the radiation exposure in medicine as a low-risk activity, the results showed a disagreement about the radiation risk perception in particular situations (i.e.: living near a nuclear power plant, training in radiological protection while at college) and about radiation risk communication strategies. There is neither right nor wrong risk perception; however, a lot of work must be done to build an agreement between radiological risk perception and risk assessment due to radiation exposure in medicine. It should include working on the design of public policies focused on radiological protection training for health staff and clinical research training for medical physicists and radiological protection specialists, while strengthening communication skills and channels.

A robust decision-making approach in climate policy design for possible net zero futures

The energy modelling community’s analysis of net zero often relies on approaches that hide the extent of uncertainty. Meanwhile the extent of uncertainty involved in the realisation of net zero is proliferating. Conventional consolidative modelling approaches lack of transparency is distorting decision making and policy design around net zero. This contribution uses the UK’s Committee on Climate Changes 6th Carbon Budget as a case study. An exploratory, Robust Decision-Making approach is used to highlight the fragility of conventional UK modelling approaches in shaping national climate policy. A new suite of tools, orientation of analysis and mixed approaches are needed to address the extent of complexity, uncertainty and emergence in possible net zero futures. Only then will robust, inclusive and realisable climate policy be designed.

Co-designing public policy in high-income colonial-settler countries – a systematic review

ABSTRACT While co-design has become ubiquitous in policy implementation, its potential for policy design remains to be investigated. In accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, this article systematically reviews the evidence to uncover a dearth of co-designed policies in high-income colonial-settler countries. Notwithstanding, the four co-designed policies illustrate seven critical themes that offer policymakers ideological considerations when facilitating the authentic involvement of ‘end-users’ in policy design. Though co-design is not a panacea, this review demonstrates how the embedment of co-design in policy design mechanisms can address entrenched power imbalances, empower community voices, wear down silos, and pull up more relevant seats to the decision-making table – phenomena uncommonly found in colonial-settler contexts. Further research is needed to understand the benefits, risks, and impacts of co-designed policies and practical implications for policymakers that operate within constrained landscapes to enable genuine participation of intended beneficiaries in policy design.

Impact of digital divide on energy poverty across the globe: The mediating role of income inequality

Energy poverty is an important reality facing the whole world, and the rapid development of digital technology has great potential in eradicating poverty. However, the differences in the level of information development have led to the existence of the digital divide within countries. In this context, this paper explores whether and how the digital divide affects energy poverty from a global perspective. Based on cross-country panel data, this study focuses on the effect and asymmetry of the digital divide on energy poverty. The results show that the digital divide hinders the reduction of energy poverty and manifests itself in a Matthew effect that makes the energy poor poorer. Second, the heterogeneity analysis based on income level and rural-urban areas find that the digital divide has a greater negative impact on energy poverty in low-income countries and rural areas. Finally, the mechanism analysis reveals that the digital divide exacerbates energy poverty mainly by increasing income inequality. Therefore, there is a greater need to focus on the efficiency, equity and inclusive development of the digital economy in the process of its globalization. The findings can also provide an empirical basis for policy design to bridge the digital divide and alleviate energy poverty.

Understanding the spatial patterns of atmospheric ammonia trends in South Asia

Ammonia (NH3) is the most abundant alkaline gas in the atmosphere, mainly emitted by agricultural activities. NH3 readily reacts with other atmospheric acidic pollutants, such as the oxidation products of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), to create fine particulate matter, which has far-reaching effects on human health and ecosystems. Here, we investigated long-term atmospheric NH3 trends in South Asia (SA) using satellite observations from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). We analyzed 15 years (2008–2022) of IASI-NH3 retrievals against climate, biophysical, and chemical variables using an ensemble of multivariate statistical methods to identify the major factors driving the observed patterns in the region. Trend analysis of IASI-NH3 data reveals a significant rise in atmospheric NH3 over 51 % of SA plains, but a downward trend over 31 % of the region. Spatial correlation analysis reveals that biophysical factors, representing cropland expansion and agriculture intensification, have the highest positive correlation over 56 % of SA plains experiencing positive NH3 trends. However, our results reveal that the chemical conversion of NH3 to ammonium compounds, driven by the positive trends in NOₓ and SO2 pollution, is driving the apparently declining trend of NH3 in the other regions. Our results provide important insights into the NH3 trends detected by satellite data and can better inform the policy design aimed at reducing NH3 emissions and improving air quality for developing regions of the world.

Assessing farmers’ intention to adopt drought insurance. A combined perspective from the extended theory of planned behavior and behavioral reasoning theory

Agriculture in Mediterranean climates, such as that of southern Spain, is highly vulnerable to climate change, and particularly to hydrological drought. Financial instruments such as weather index-based insurance have been developed in response to increasing climate risks. In previous studies of intention to adopt this type of insurance, little attention has been paid to farmers’ underlying psychological motivations related to their perceptions of climate change, reasons for or against insurance adoption, attitudes toward insurance, subjective norms, or perceived control over the instrument. To comprehensively address this gap, a combined exploratory model based on the theory of planned behavior and behavioral reasoning theory is proposed. Specifically, the aim of this research is to analyze the psychological factors that determine farmers' intention to adopt drought insurance. The conceptual model is tested on a sample of 146 farmers from an irrigated area in the lower Guadalquivir region of Andalusia. The data are analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Contrary to expectations, the results of the study suggest that belief in climate change does not significantly influence the reasons for or against insurance adoption, nor the attitudes toward or perceived control over it. The recommendations drawn from this study can contribute to the design of more effective policies and communication strategies that address farmers' psychological perceptions and motivations, thereby helping to boost the adoption of drought insurance.

Understanding the dynamics of national business culture: a stationarity analysis for the case of South Korea

ABSTRACT Understanding national business culture – and its subsequent influence on organizational practice – continues to draw scholarly attention. However, being drawn primarily from static, comparative taxonomies, existing research cannot adequately explain and predict the process of cultural evolution (e.g. towards convergence, divergence, or crossvergence). In addressing this caveat, this paper proposes a novel way of understanding changing national business culture using stationarity analysis based on shifting frequency, sentiment, and meanings of representative key terms. Using the big data keywords collected from the Maekyung Daily published over three decades (1991–2021) in Korea, our findings show that cultural changes can be measured based on the four dimensions of ‘conscious vs. unconscious’ on the one hand and ‘political vs. economic’ on the other. Further, we show how the economic and the unconscious dimensions have changed more rapidly than the political and the conscious, reflecting an informal model of cultural changes. We then discuss the practical implications of these findings for MNEs in the cross-border design and implementation of strategy, policy, and process, providing valuable insights for their operations in diverse cultural contexts.

Funding a Just Transition Away from Coal in the U.S. Considering Avoided Damage from Air Pollution

Abstract Coal is declining in the U.S. as part of the clean energy transition, resulting in remarkable air pollution benefits for the American public and significant costs for the industry. Using the AP3 integrated assessment model, we estimate that fewer emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and primary fine particulate matter driven by coal’s decline led to $300 billion in benefits from 2014 to 2019. Conversely, we find that job losses driven by less coal plant and mining activity resulted in $7.84 billion in foregone wages over the same timeframe. While the benefits were greatly distributed (mostly throughout the East), costs were highly concentrated in coal communities. Transferring a small fraction of the benefits to workers could cover these costs while maintaining societal net benefits. Forecasting coal fleet damages from 2020 to 2035, we find that buying out or replacing these plants would result in $589 billion in air quality benefits, which considerably outweigh the costs. The return on investment increases when policy targets the most damaging capacity, and net benefits are maximized when removing just facilities where marginal benefits exceed marginal costs. Evaluating competitive reverse auction policy designs akin to Germany’s Coal Exit Act, we find that adjusting bids based on monetary damages rather than based only on carbon dioxide emissions – the German design – provides a welfare advantage. Our benefit–cost analyses clearly support policies that drive a swift and just transition away from coal, thereby clearing the air while supporting communities needing assistance.

The value of commuting time, flexibility, and job security: Evidence from current and recent jobseekers in Flanders

This study examines jobseekers’ preferences for a variety of job attributes. It is based on a choice experiment involving 1852 clients of the Flemish Public Employment Service (PES). Respondents value flexibility (e.g., remote work and schedule flexibility), job security and social impact of the job, and require significant compensation for longer commute times. A majority (70%) would need very substantial wage increase beyond their acceptable baseline wage to compensate for less flexibility, job security or social impact. These findings enhance our understanding of labour supply decisions and can inform the design of salary packages and HR policies.

Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries

Among the various effects of the green transition on the macroeconomy, we examined the unintended effects of the green transition on inflation, the so-called “greenflation”. We analyzed panel data from 26 OECD countries covering the period from 2005 to 2019 using four models based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve model. To date, only a few studies have examined greenflation, particularly in terms of empirical investigation. The main contribution of this study to the literature is to provide empirical evidence of greenflation. We also provide empirical evidence on the issues in the NKPC literature that the output gap better explains inflation dynamics than unit labor costs and confirm the demise of the Phillips curve. Estimates from the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group (CCEMG), Augmented Mean Group (AMG), and Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) models indicate that the green transition has an upward inflationary impact on headline inflation, but no significant impact on core inflation. In addition, we have examined four circumstances under which the green transition may affect inflation that have not been sufficiently discussed in the literature: increased green transition spending, carbon pricing, increased demand for critical minerals, and the low energy density of renewable energy. Each of these circumstances has the potential to exert both upward and downward pressures simultaneously. Our suggestion to policymakers is that they do not yet need to change their current view of monetary policy with respect to greenflation, but they should carefully consider policy designs that take into account the unintended effects of the energy transition.

New energy technology innovation and energy poverty alleviation in China

Energy poverty has received attention, but in-depth research on the relationship between new energy technology innovation and energy poverty is lacking. Using data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2006 to 2020, we examine the impact of new energy technology innovation on energy poverty in China. We collect provincial-level patent data and energy poverty evaluation indicators, categorizing them into four subsystems: energy use level, energy capacity, energy use structure, and energy investment management. Findings indicates: (1) New energy technology innovation significantly alleviates energy poverty in China. This is primarily attributed to improvements in energy supply and residents' income. (2) The effectiveness of new energy technology innovations in alleviating energy poverty is enhanced by provincial transportation development and technology market activity but diminished by urbanization. (3) New energy technology innovations lead to notable increases in energy use level and energy capacity, a decrease in energy use structure, and no significant impact on energy investment management. (4) Innovations from enterprises, university and research institutes significantly contribute to alleviating China's energy poverty. However, innovations from industry-university-research collaborations and other innovators do not significantly affect China's energy poverty. Our findings provide valuable insights for theoretical research and energy poverty policy design.

Sustainable ocean development policies in Indonesia: paving the pathways towards a maritime destiny

Maritime countries, including Indonesia, have indicated their interest in developing a national ocean policy and blue economy plan to boost economic growth while promoting sustainability in and from oceanic activities. In 2017, the Government of Indonesia published the Indonesian Ocean Policy (IOP), the first of its kind since independence, and subsequently developed a series of blue economy documents as an integral part of its national development agenda whilst also indicating its support for the global sustainability objectives stipulated in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, development obstacles such as: declining ocean health; climate crises; fragmented ocean management; inadequate infrastructure and technology; limited data support; low sustainable investment; and the blurred definition of the blue economy, pose risks to successful outcomes of sustainable ocean development in Indonesia. When unaddressed, these challenges can inhibit the policy’s effectiveness in delivering its intended outcomes. This qualitative study explores Indonesia’s interests in sustainable ocean development and how it pursues them while advancing economic objectives and commitments towards SDGs and net zero emission targets. The study finds that maintaining ocean health and ensuring sustainable use of ocean resources are Indonesia’s most vital interests for sustainable ocean development. The national ocean policy and the blue economy have been employed as two successive and simultaneous avenues to pursue Indonesia’s maritime interests. Unfortunately, to date, both approaches have yet to obtain maturity and ocean affairs are overshadowed by other national development priorities. By focusing on ocean governance and its development in the contemporary context, this article sheds light on the important role of policymaking in modern-day ocean governance. A cautious approach to policy design is crucial to avoid common pitfalls in sustainable ocean development, such as weak implementation strategies and the consequent failure to meet core sustainability objectives.

Investigation of the differences in characteristics of Welsh farming households with and without off-farm income

ObjectiveTo examine the characteristics of farming households that have no off-farm income, and how they compare to farming households containing at least one person employed in a non-farming occupation. ApproachThis research uses the AD|ARC dataset for Wales held in the SAIL databank at Swansea University. This Research Ready Dataset, created by the research team, is comprised of population census data and existing agricultural datasets. Individuals were split into two groups, those in households where all individuals were primarily employed in farming or unemployed, and those in households where at least one individual was in a non-farming occupation. ResultsComparing these groups, our findings show: There are 8135 farming households with at least one person in a non-farming occupation, and 5415 households with no off-farm income. Households with off-farm income are on average 65% larger than households with no off-farm income. 33% of farming only households consist of a single person; 73% of these farmers are male, and the average age is 62. The average age for farming-only households is 45, and the average age of households with non-farming occupations is 36. We will present detailed findings on the socio-economic and farm business characteristics of these groups. ConclusionUnderstanding differences between households with and without off-farm income provides insights on farm types and households most impacted by changes in agricultural policies and subsidies. This can inform policy design and help authorities deliver commitments on just transitions in a targeted and efficient manner.

When do petrostates diversify their exports? Urgency, interests, and policy design in Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia

AbstractMotivationThe need to diversify their economies is an enduring challenge for fossil fuel‐dependent countries, one which will become ever more important as the world seeks to decarbonize. But the conditions under which major oil‐producing countries (petrostates) seek to diversify their exports—and those under which their attempts succeed—are poorly understood.PurposeThis article tests competing explanations for the successes and failures of petrostates' export diversification.Methods and approachWe employ a comparative case study approach using qualitative evidence from two comparatively successful diversification cases—Egypt and Malaysia—and one less successful case—Kazakhstan—selected using a Theil index of export concentration.FindingsThe evidence indicates that Egypt and Malaysia's more successful outcomes stemmed more from necessity and policy design than from differences in domestic institutions and interests. All three countries were motivated to diversify by price volatility and declining revenues at various points from the 1980s to the 2000s and beyond, but reserve depletion was a greater threat in Egypt and Malaysia. As such, they adopted a more balanced approached to diversification, one that combined liberalization with state intervention.Policy implicationsThese cases suggest that petrostates may be willing and able to diversify as the global shift toward renewables raises the prospect of unburnable oil reserves. Petrostates can diversify efficiently by using a basket of policies that includes a mix of economic liberalization and government intervention to create investment and incentives in non‐oil tradeable sectors and nurture infant industries. Opposition to reforms in petrostates can be addressed by selectively compensating vested interests.