Dynamics Of Dengue Fever Research Articles

Modeling the dynamics of dengue fever with double susceptibility and optimal control strategies

Modeling the dynamics of dengue fever with double susceptibility and optimal control strategies

Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China

China has experienced successive waves of dengue epidemics over the past decade. Nationwide data on 95,339 dengue cases, 89 surveillance sites for mosquito density and population mobility between 337 cities during 2013-20 were extracted. Weekly dengue time series including time trends and harmonic terms were fitted using seasonal regression models, and the amplitude and peak timing of the annual and semiannual cycles were estimated. A data-driven model-inference approach was used to simulate the epidemic at city-scale and estimate time-evolving epidemiological parameters. We found that the geographical distribution of dengue cases was expanding, and the main imported areas as well as external sources of imported cases changed. Dengue cases were predominantly concentrated in southern China and it exhibited an annual peak of activity, typically peaking in September. The annual amplitude of dengue epidemic varied with latitude (F = 19.62, P = 0.0001), mainly characterizing by large in southern cities and small in northern cities. The effective reproduction number Reff across cities is commonly greater than 1 in several specific months from July to November, further confirming the seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity of dengue epidemics. The results of this national study help to better informing interventions for future dengue epidemics in China.

A fractional derivative model of the dynamic of dengue transmission based on seasonal factors in Thailand

A fractional derivative model of the dynamic of dengue transmission based on seasonal factors in Thailand

Simulation of the SIR dengue fever nonlinear model: A numerical approach

Simulation of the SIR dengue fever nonlinear model: A numerical approach

Mathematical analysis using fractional operator to study the dynamics of dengue fever

Researchers and analysts are intensively studying modeling contagious diseases using non-integer order derivatives to enhance understanding and prediction. Taking this idea forward, in this study, we consider the fractional model for dengue fever disease. The Hilfer fractional model was initially formulated to address epidemic dynamics. This study employed the numerical technique, the Laplace homotopy analysis transform method (LHATM), to examine the fractional dengue fever model for analysis. We employed homotopy analysis and Laplace transform to formulate the proposed technique. There is also a consideration of the uniqueness and convergence of the solution. Utilizing MATLAB21a, numerical simulation for different integer and non-integer orders within the interval (0, 1) has been drawn.

Mathematical modelling of transmission dynamics of Dengue Fever in the presence of infective immigrants

Mathematical modelling of transmission dynamics of Dengue Fever in the presence of infective immigrants

Mathematical modeling of the effects of vector control, treatment and mass awareness on the transmission dynamics of dengue fever

Mathematical modeling of the effects of vector control, treatment and mass awareness on the transmission dynamics of dengue fever

Control Design for Dengue Fever Model with Disturbance

A mathematical model has become a useful tool to predict and control dengue fever dynamics. In reality, the dynamic of dengue fever transmission can be disturbed by uncertainty measurements, so it is needed to consider the disturbance in the model. Then, dengue fever model with disturbance is constructed by using a gain matrix consisting a covariance matrix and random vector. As dengue vaccine has been challenging to reduce the pandemic, a dengue model with vaccination as control is constructed. The aim is to propose a feedback controller that can reduces the infected human (H2 control problem) and the uncertainty measurements (H∞ control problem). The control u denotes the proportion of susceptible humans that one decides to vaccinate at time t. A random mass vaccination with wanning immunity is chosen because vaccine still on development process. A Design of mixed H2 - H∞ control with State-dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE) approach is applied. The SDRE has been an effective method to solve for synthesizing nonlinear feedback controller by transforming the system to an State-dependent coefficient (SDC) form. By comparing the mixed scheme with basic H∞, numerical simulation shows that the control application effectively decreases the number of infected humans and reduces the disturbance.

A dynamical study of a fuzzy epidemic model of Mosquito-Borne Disease

Numerical models help us to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Since vectors transmit many diseases, vector host models are very important. The transmission dynamics of Dengue fever with an incubation period of the virus with fuzzy parameters have been analyzed in this article. Sometimes it is very difficult and almost impossible to collect numerical data as a fixed value. Due to the lack of precise numerical data for the parameters, the fuzzy model is considered here. Fuzzy theory is a very powerful mathematical tool for dealing with imprecision and uncertainties. In this article, the chance of the occurrence of dengue infection βh(a), the recovery rate r(a) and the mortality rate of the human population μh(a) due to dengue fever are considered fuzzy numbers. The stability of equilibrium points of the model has been determined and a reproduction number has been derived respectively in a fuzzy sense. A numerical model is designed for the studied model having fuzzy parameters and some numerical experiments are performed which indicate that the proposed method shows positivity, stability, and convergence at each time step size. Hence the method preserves the essential features of the dynamic epidemic models.

Analysis and dynamical behavior of a novel dengue model via fractional calculus

The infection of dengue is an intimidating vector-borne disease caused by a pathogenic agent that affects different temperature areas and brings many losses in human health and economy. Thus, it is valuable to identify the most influential parameters in the transmission process for the control of dengue to lessen these losses and to turn down the economic burden of dengue. In this research, we formulate the transmission phenomena of dengue infection with vaccination, treatment and reinfection via Atangana–Baleanu operator to thoroughly explore the intricate system of the disease. Furthermore, to come up with more realistic, dependable and valid results through fractional derivative rather than classical order derivative. The next-generation approach has been utilized to compute the basic reproduction number for the suggested fractional model, indicated by [Formula: see text]; moreover, we conducted sensitivity test of [Formula: see text] to recognize and point out the role of parameters on [Formula: see text]. Our numerical results predict that the reproduction number of the system of dengue infection can be controlled by controlling the index of memory. The uniqueness and existence result has been proved for the solution of the system. A novel numerical method is presented to highlight the time series of dengue system. Eventually, we get numerical results for different assumptions of [Formula: see text] with specifying factors to conceptualize the effect of [Formula: see text] on the dynamics. It has been noted that the fractional-order derivative offers realistic, clear-cut and valid information about the dynamics of dengue fever. Moreover, we note through our analysis that the input parameters’ index of memory, biting rate, transmission probability and recruitment rate of mosquitos can be used as control parameter to lower the level of infection.

A fractional order dengue fever model in the context of protected travelers

Climate changes are affecting the control of many vector-borne diseases, particularly in Africa. In this work, a dengue fever model with protected travelers is formulated. Caputo-Fabrizio operator is utilized to obtain some qualitative information about the disease. The basic properties and the reproduction number are studied. The two steady states are determined and the local stability of the states are found to be asymptotically stable. The fixed point theory is used to obtain the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the model. The Adams–Bashforth scheme is employed to solve an approximate solution of the fractional dengue model. The numerical simulation suggests that the fractional-order affects the dynamics of dengue fever.

Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Fever in Mainland China, 2019.

New spatial characteristics of dengue fever in mainland China during 2019 were analyzed. There was a dengue fever outbreak in mainland China in 2019, with 15,187 indigenous cases in 13 provinces, 1281 domestic imported cases from 12 provinces and 5778 overseas imported cases from 47 countries, more than the previous cases during the period 2005–2018, except for in 2014. Indigenous cases occurred in Sichuan, Hubei and Chongqing in 2019. There have been big changes in the spatial distribution and proportion of dengue cases. Indigenous cases were not only located in the southwestern border and southeastern coastal provinces of Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian but also in the central provinces of Jiangxi and Chongqing. Domestic imported cases were not only from Guangdong, but also from Yunnan. There were five new sources of importation of cases. Overseas imported cases were mainly from Cambodia and Myanmar in 2019. Understanding the new spatial characteristics of dengue fever in China helps to formulate targeted, strategic plans and implement effective public health prevention and control measures.

A computational study of transmission dynamics for dengue fever with a fractional approach

Fractional derivatives are considered an influential weapon in terms of analysis of infectious diseases because of their nonlocal nature. The inclusion of the memory effect is the prime advantage of fractional-order derivatives. The main objective of this article is to investigate the transmission dynamics of dengue fever, we consider generalized Caputo-type fractional derivative (GCFD) (CD0β,σ) for alternate representation of dengue fever disease model. We discuss the existence and uniqueness of the solution of model by using fixed point theory. Further, an adaptive predictor-corrector technique is utilized to evaluate the considered model numerically.

The dynamics of dengue infection through fractal-fractional operator with real statistical data

The purpose of this work is to analyze the dynamics of dengue fever in newly introduced operator known as fractal-fractional Atangana-Baleanu. Initially, we formulate a new dengue model with hospitalization class of notified infected cases and present the model basic results. Stability results for the model are shown when R0<1. We estimate the parameters for the model considering the infected cases occur in East Java Indonesia for the year 2018. We estimated that the basic reproduction number for this model is approximately equal to R0≈1.8463. We show the application of the fractal-fractional Atangana-Baleanu operator to the dengue model and present its numerical solution with a new method. We show the fractal-fractional model versus model fitting for different values of fractal and fractional orders and suggest that the fractal-fractional model provides better fitting to the infected cases of dengue infection. Some numerical results for different orders of fractal and fractional are shown for the validity and the applicability of the newly introduced operator.

Optimal control strategies for dengue fever spread in Johor, Malaysia

Background Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease endemic in Malaysia. The disease is presently a public health issue in the country. Hence, the use of mathematical model to gain insights into the transmission dynamics and derive the optimal control strategies for minimizing the spread of the disease is of great importance. Methods A model involving eight mutually exclusive compartments with the introduction of personal protection, larvicide and adulticide control strategies describing dengue fever transmission dynamics is presented. The control-induced basic reproduction number (R˜0) related to the model is computed using the next generation matrix method. Comparison theorem is used to analyse the global dynamics of the model. The model is fitted to the data related to the 2012 dengue outbreak in Johor, Malaysia, using the least-squares method. In a bid to optimally curtail dengue fever propagation, we apply optimal control theory to investigate the effect of several control strategies of combination of optimal personal protection, larvicide and adulticide controls on dengue fever dynamics. The resulting optimality system is simulated in MATLAB using fourth order Runge-Kutta scheme based on the forward-backward sweep method. In addition, cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to determine the most cost-effective strategy among the various control strategies analysed. Results Analysis of the model with control parameters shows that the model has two disease-free equilibria, namely, trivial equilibrium and biologically realistic disease-free equilibrium, and one endemic equilibrium point. It also reveals that the biologically realistic disease-free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the inequality R˜0<1holds. In the case of model with time-dependent control functions, the optimality levels of the three control functions required to optimally control dengue disease transmission are derived. Conclusion We conclude that dengue fever transmission can be curtailed by adopting any of the several control strategies analysed in this study. Furthermore, a strategy which combines personal protection and adulticide controls is found to be the most cost-effective control strategy.

Modelling Dengue Fever Epidemics in Jakarta

This article thematizes the qualitative estimation of transmission dynamics of Dengue fever. At first, a single-compartment vector-host model for the total infective cases in one homogeneous area has been set up and simplified using a steady-state approximation. Seasonality has been considered in the transmission parameter which is modelled by a Fourier sum. The equilibria of the model and their stability as well as the computation of the basic reproductive number are presented. As a modification, models considering a segmenting of the area in separate districts and their inter-district mobility have been set up, both with and without dependence of the disease transmission parameters on the district. Those have also been analysed in terms of equilibria and stability. Parameter estimation on available Dengue data from Jakarta in the time interval of 2008–2016 using the Metropolis algorithm has been done. $${\mathscr {L}}_1$$ and $${\mathscr {L}}_2$$ comparisons show that using the multi-patch model with district-dependent parameters a decent approximation to the infection data is possible.

Mathematical Model of the Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Fever in Two Categories with Vaccination and Migration Effect

Mathematical Model of the Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Fever in Two Categories with Vaccination and Migration Effect

Spatial-temporal risk index and transmission of a nonlocal dengue model

Abstract The nonlocal incidence and free boundaries are introduced into a classic SIR-SI model describing the transmission dynamics of dengue fever, where the nonlocal incidence allows for interactions of susceptible population at a given location with infected mosquitoes in the whole area, and free boundaries represent the expanding front of the area contaminated by dengue virus. We derive a spatial–temporal risk index in terms of the basic reproduction number, which depends on the nonlocal incidence and time variable. More importantly, we explore the relationships between different model variants regarding these risk indices. We additionally find sufficient conditions to ensure the vanishing and spreading of dengue fever, and demonstrate, for a special case, the asymptotic behavior of its solution when spreading occurs. Finally, we carry out numerical simulations to demonstrate our analytical findings and further provide their epidemiological explanations.

The Solution of a Mathematical Model for Dengue Fever Transmission Using Differential Transformation Method

Differential Transformation Method (DTM) is a very effective tool for solving linear and non-linear ordinary differential equations. This paper uses DTM to solve the mathematical model for the dynamics of Dengue fever in a population. The graphical profiles for human population are obtained using Maple software. The solution profiles give the long term behavior of Dengue fever model which shows that treatment plays a vital role in reducing the disease burden in a population.

A time-periodic and reaction–diffusion Dengue fever model with extrinsic incubation period and crowding effects

Abstract Dengue fever is a typical mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes to human, which has become a major public health concern worldwide. In this paper, we incorporate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of dengue virus, spatial and temporal (seasonal) heterogeneity, crowing effect for host population into Dengue fever transmission, and propose a time-periodic and nonlocal delayed reaction–diffusion model of Dengue fever. The basic reproduction number R 0 is introduced for the model system, and it serves a threshold type parameter that determines the transmission dynamics of Dengue fever. Numerical simulations indicate the influence of the aforementioned virus factors on the spread of the disease.