Dengue Epidemic Model Research Articles

Global Stability of Multigroup Dengue Disease Transmission Model

We investigate a class of multigroup dengue epidemic model. We show that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproductive number R0. We present that when R0 ≤ 1, there is a unique disease‐free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable; when R0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and it is globally asymptotically stable proved by a graph‐theoretic approach to the method of global Lyapunov function.

Global dynamics of a dengue epidemic mathematical model

The paper investigates the global stability of a dengue epidemic model with saturation and bilinear incidence. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The stability of these two equilibria is controlled by the threshold number R 0 . It is shown that if R 0 is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R 0 is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.

Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, thrives in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. A retrospective analysis of the 2002 dengue epidemic in Colima located on the Mexican central Pacific coast is carried out. We estimate the reproduction number from spatial epidemic data at the level of municipalities using two different methods: (1) Using a standard dengue epidemic model and assuming pure exponential initial epidemic growth and (2) Fitting a more realistic epidemic model to the initial phase of the dengue epidemic curve. Using Method I, we estimate an overall mean reproduction number of 3.09 (95% CI: 2.34, 3.84) as well as local reproduction numbers whose values range from 1.24 (1.15, 1.33) to 4.22 (2.90, 5.54). Using Method II, the overall mean reproduction number is estimated to be 2.0 (1.75, 2.23) and local reproduction numbers ranging from 0.49 (0.0, 1.0) to 3.30 (1.63, 4.97). Method I systematically overestimates the reproduction number relative to the refined Method II, and hence it would overestimate the intensity of interventions required for containment. Moreover, optimal intervention with defined resources demands different levels of locally tailored mitigation. Local epidemic peaks occur between the 24th and 35th week of the year, and correlate positively with the final local epidemic sizes ( ρ = 0.92, P-value < 0.001). Moreover, final local epidemic sizes are found to be linearly related to the local population size ( P-value < 0.001). This observation supports a roughly constant number of female mosquitoes per person across urban and rural regions.