Mountain Pine Beetle Research Articles

Volatiles of High-Elevation Five-Needle Pines: Chemical Signatures through Ratios and Insight into Insect and Pathogen Resistance.

High-elevation five-needle pine trees are a group of Pinus species in the subgenus Strobus that occur at the edges of plant growth near the alpine tree line. These species are ecologically very important and are also threatened by climate-driven insect outbreaks and an exotic pathogen. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) play central roles in the environmental adaptation of plants and in their defense against insects and pathogens. For example, the VOCs emitted by some high-elevation five-needle pine species attract female, tree-killing mountain pine beetles (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) in the pioneering phase whereas VOCs from other species strongly repel this foremost herbivore, but the mechanism is unknown. We collected and compared headspace VOCs from foliage of eight species of high-elevation five-needle pines in Europe and North America. Overall, VOCs differed quantitatively among species with few qualitative differences. Despite species emitting essentially the same compounds, Random Forest analysis correctly classified 117 of the 126 trees sampled by using VOCs and identified the most important compounds for species classification and for separating species resistant from those susceptible to MPB or white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola). These VOC 'fingerprints' resulted largely from species emitting distinctive ratios of compounds, rather than through presence of species-specific compounds. Importantly, these Pinus species vary greatly in resistance to the main herbivore (MPB) and pathogen (white pine blister rust) causing tree mortality. Thus, these findings provide insights and should guide research into understanding resistance and in developing tools to manage these important trees. For instance, studies into the functions of five-needle pine VOCs in defense against abiotic or biotic stressors should focus on blend ratios rather than on individual compounds.

Autumn shifts in cold tolerance metabolites in overwintering adult mountain pine beetles.

The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is a major forest pest of pines in western North America. Beetles typically undergo a one-year life cycle with larval cold hardening in preparation for overwintering. Two-year life cycle beetles have been observed but not closely studied. This study tracks cold-hardening and preparation for overwintering by adult mountain pine beetles in their natal galleries. Adults were collected in situ between September and December 2016 for a total of nine time points during 91 days. Concentrations of 41 metabolites in these pooled samples were assessed using quantitative nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). Levels of glycerol and proline increased significantly with lowering temperature during the autumn. Newly eclosed mountain pine beetles appear to prepare for winter by generating the same cold-tolerance compounds found in other insect larvae including mountain pine beetle, but high on-site mortality suggested that two-year life cycle adults have a less efficacious acclimation process. This is the first documentation of cold acclimation metabolite production in overwintering new adult beetles and is evidence of physiological plasticity that would allow evolution by natural selection of alternate life cycles (shortened or lengthened) under a changing climate or during expansion into new geoclimatic areas.

Mechanisms and consequences of flight polyphenisms in an outbreaking bark beetle species.

Flight polyphenisms naturally occur as discrete or continuous traits in insects. Discrete flight polyphenisms include winged and wingless morphs, whereas continuous flight polyphenisms can take the form of short- or long-distance fliers. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) exhibits polyphenic variation in flight distance but the consequences of this flight variation on life history strategies of beetles is unknown. This study assessed the effect of flight on two particular aspects of beetle biology: (1) an energetic trade-off between flight distance and host colonisation capacity; and (2) the relationship between flight distance and pheromone production. A 23h flight treatment was applied to a subset of beetles using computer-linked flight mills. After flight treatment, both flown and unflown (control) beetles were given the opportunity to colonise bolts of host trees, and beetles that entered hosts were aerated to collect pheromone. A trade-off occurred between initiation of host colonisation and percentage body mass lost during flight, which indicates energy use during flight affects host acceptance in female mountain pine beetles. Furthermore, production of the aggregation pheromone trans-verbenol by female beetles was influenced by both percentage body mass lost during flight and flight distance. Male production of exo-brevicomin was affected by beetle condition following flight but not by the energy used during flight. These novel results give new insight into the polyphenic flight behaviour of mountain pine beetles. Flight variation is adaptive by acting to maintain population levels through safe and risky host colonisation strategies. These findings suggest mechanisms that facilitate the extremities of the continuous flight polyphenism spectrum. These opposing mechanisms appear to maintain the high variation in flight exhibited by this species.

Whitebark Pine in the National Parks of the Pacific States: An Assessment of Population Vulnerability

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a long-lived tree found in high-elevation forests of western North America that is declining due to the non-native white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) and climate-driven outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB). The National Park Service established a monitoring program for whitebark pine in seven parks, including Sequoia & Kings Canyon, Yosemite, Lassen Volcanic, Crater Lake, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and North Cascades National Parks. Using these data, we summarized stand structure, presence of blister rust, and MPB prevalence to provide a baseline for future monitoring. Next, we used a stochastic, size-structured population model to speculate on future trends in the seven national park populations under conditions of increased MPB activity and ongoing blister rust infection observed in Crater Lake. We found that blister rust infected 29 to 54% of whitebark pine in all the parks except the two southernmost, Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite, where infections rates were 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The proportion of dead trees in Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite was low (0 to 1%), while they ranged from 10 to 43% in the other parks. Model projections suggested an average population decline of 25% in the parks over the next century using Crater Lake conditions, declines which are possible if blister rust continues to spread and climate change results in a significant increase in the frequency or severity of MPB outbreaks. Overall, our study describes conditions at seven western parks and illustrates potential rates of whitebark pine decline if pest outbreaks and/or blister rust infections worsen.

Using conjoint constitution to understand responses to slow-moving environmental change: the case of mountain pine beetle in north-central Colorado

ABSTRACTA growing body of work exists on the social implications of forest insect disturbances. However, although increasingly explored, there remains a need to further understand social responses to large-scale forest insect disturbances over time. This requires longitudinal investigations into people’s conceptualizations of their changing local environments, associated risk perceptions, and forest management preferences in the context of forest insect disturbance-related changes to the landscape. Within the context of the mountain pine beetle outbreak that affected approximately 3.4 million acres of Colorado forests, this study is a ten-year follow-up to a 2006–2007 study that explored local responses to the outbreak. Using qualitative interviews with 54 informants from nine north-central Colorado communities affected by the outbreak, this paper incorporates a social construction approach known as ‘conjoint constitution’ to examine the interplay between slow-moving biophysical changes to the landscape as a result of the outbreak, communities’ understandings and risk perceptions of these changes, as well as shifts in locals’ thinking about forest management.

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growth and defense in response to mountain pine beetle outbreaks

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is a critical forest species of Northern Rocky Mountain upper subalpine ecosystems, yet little is known about the physiological response of whitebark pine to disturbance (e.g. fire, bark beetles, and pathogens) across a range of diverse environmental gradients. Resin-based defenses have long been recognized as the primary mechanism by which conifers respond to attack by bark beetles and pathogens and several studies have linked resin duct properties to survivorship during periods of increased beetle activity. However, to our knowledge, no studies have compared axial resin ducts in the secondary xylem of whitebark pine across pairs of living and dead whitebark pine trees to better understand survivorship following multiple disturbances including mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust. We found a clear distinction in growth and defense characteristics between live and dead whitebark pine. Across our study sites on the Flathead Indian Reservation in northwestern Montana, live whitebark pine produced larger resin ducts with a greater annual investment in resin-based defenses than whitebark pine that died. Resin duct size, duct area, and relative duct area were all greater in live whitebark pine (by 56%, 48%, and 57%, respectively) and these were the most important variables influencing whitebark pine survivorship. In contrast, whitebark pine that had died grew faster over time (22% larger ring widths) than their live counterparts and also produced more resin duct structures (20% more ducts on average). Whitebark pine at our study sites exhibit differing strategies in the allocation of resources toward growth and defense, with the majority of survivors of recent disturbance investing more in defensive structures than growth. Our results support the idea that maintaining genetic variability and the associated suite of differing physiological traits promotes diverse response strategies to a complex array of biophysical and biological stressors that might leave a species vulnerable to extinction across its range.

Chemical similarity between introduced and native populations of Scots pine can facilitate transcontinental expansion of mountain pine beetle in North America

Introduced forest tree species are frequently attacked by insects in their new range; however, it has been seldom investigated whether the presence of such tree species increases the risk of range expansion of native insect herbivores in the introduced range. European Scots pine has been introduced to North America including within a portion of the range of the mountain pine beetle (MPB). We investigated Scots pine suitability to MPB as a host in the introduced range of the pine populations. We compared chemotypic similarity of foliage between introduced and native Scots pine populations, and then determined the suitability of introduced populations to MPB. Suitability was assessed based on whether beetles produce aggregation pheromone components and complete development in Scots pine bolts. We also assessed whether or not suitability was affected by the host chemotypes. Introduced and native pine populations had the same sesquiterpene chemotypes and shared one of the two monoterpene chemotypes. All introduced populations were suitable for MPB but the suitability varied slightly with host chemotype. This is the first report of chemotypic variations of Scots pine populations outside its native range. Chemotypic similarity between the introduced and native pine populations, ability of beetles to produce pheromones and to complete its life cycle on bolts from all chemotypes, and preferential colonization of Scots pine over native pine species by MPB in field suggest that introduced Scots pine populations could facilitate transcontinental expansion of MPB in North America.

TRIA-Net: 10 years of collaborative research on turning risk into action for the mountain pine beetle epidemic

Forest insects are showing increasing intensity of outbreaks and expanded ranges, and this has become a major challenge for forest managers. An understanding of these systems often depends upon detailed examination of complex interactions involving multiple organisms. In 2013, a team of researchers formed TRIA-Net, an NSERC support Strategic Network, with the explicit goal of exploring such interactions in the mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) – pine (Pinus sp.) – blue stain fungi (Ophiostomatales) system. Contributions of this network include novel genetic and genomic resources and insights, as well as exploration of how landscape structure affects MPB movements. This review highlights the unique contributions of TRIA-Net to our understanding of the MPB outbreak system. We also highlight how the insights we generated can be used to inform management strategies — including assessing stand susceptibility, predicting spread, and developing better monitoring approaches — and how the approach taken by the TRIA project can be used as a model for tackling other challenging forest insect outbreaks.

Forest birds exhibit variable changes in occurrence during a mountain pine beetle epidemic

AbstractRecent epidemics of mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) have fundamentally altered forests of the Intermountain West, impacting management decisions related to fire, logging, and wildlife conservation. We evaluated how a recent mountain pine beetle epidemic influenced the site occupancy of 39 avian species in forests dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) on the Helena National Forest, Montana. Point count data were collected during the avian breeding seasons (May–July) of 2003–2006 (pre‐epidemic) and 2009–2011 (during‐epidemic). We used a community‐level Bayesian hierarchical model accounting for imperfect detection to obtain occupancy estimates for all detected forest birds. Our model for site occupancy included the annual presence of mountain pine beetles, the proportion of ponderosa pine at sites, the interaction between the two, and a random effect of year. We observed changes in occurrence over the study period for 23 of 39 species, including shifts toward and away from beetle‐killed ponderosa pine. Community turnover increased during the epidemic and then returned quickly to pre‐epidemic levels. Our results illustrate the myriad habitat preferences of the small landbird community and suggest that a mosaic of disturbed conifer, intact live conifer, and adjacent aspen forests will be critical for the persistence of populations of native avifauna in the Intermountain West.

Larger Resin Ducts Are Linked to the Survival of Lodgepole Pine Trees During Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak.

Periodic mountain pine beetle outbreaks have killed millions of hectares of lodgepole pine forests in western North America. Within these forests some pine trees often remain alive. It has been rarely documented whether anatomical defenses differ between beetle-killed and remaining live pine trees, especially at the northern latitudinal range of beetles in North America. In this study, we compared the resin duct-based anatomical defenses and radial growth between beetle-killed and live residual lodgepole pine trees, and we characterized the resin ducts and the growth of the residual trees before and after outbreak. We found that tree radial growth was not associated with tree survival. The best two predictors of tree survival were resin duct size and production (number per year). Trees having larger but fewer resin ducts showed higher survival probability compared to those with smaller but more abundant resin ducts annually. Residual trees had larger resin ducts prior to the outbreak and continued having so after the outbreak. We further categorized residual trees as healthy (having no signs or symptoms of insect or pathogen attacks), declining (with signs or symptoms of biotic attacks), and survived (from mountain pine beetle attacks during the outbreak) to investigate resin duct-based anatomical defenses among them. Healthy trees had consistently larger resin ducts than declining trees in the past 20 years in post-outbreak stands. Survival trees ranked between healthy and declining trees. Overall, these results demonstrate that resin duct size of lodgepole pine trees can be an important component of tree defenses against mountain pine beetle attacks and suggest that lodgepole pine trees with large resin ducts are likely to show resistance to future bark beetle attacks.

Environmental Determinants of Recruitment Success of Subalpine Fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in a Mixed-Conifer Forest

Understanding the processes that underlie forest resilience is of increasing importance as climate change and shifting disturbance regimes continue to impact western forests. Forest research and management efforts within the low-diversity conifer forests of the U.S. Rocky Mountains have typically focused on relatively monotypic stands dominated by a single cohort, but mixed-conifer stands, such as those codominated by Abies lasiocarpa and Pinus contorta have been less widely studied. The presence of A. lasiocarpa may enhance resilience to fire- and mountain pine beetle–induced mortality and depends on successful A. lasiocarpa recruitment under a range of environmental conditions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effects of key forest structural characteristics and environmental conditions on recruitment of A. lasiocarpa in a midelevation mixed-conifer forest in the central Rocky Mountains. To address this aim, A. lasiocarpa seedling density, light availability, neighborhood basal area, and soil fertility were measured across 24 plots, and the relative effects of each measured variable, temperature, and precipitation on seedling density were quantified within a Bayesian multilevel regression model. Model results showed nonsignificant effects of climate, light availability, and neighborhood index on seedling density; a significant positive association between seedling density and the interaction between soil fertility and neighborhood index; and a strong negative relationship between seedling density and soil fertility. We posit that the negative association with soil fertility in these nutrient-poor forests reflects an underlying gradient in soil moisture availability that corresponds with water flux pathways. Ultimately, much of the variance in seedling densities was explained by latent plot and year effects, indicating that A. lasiocarpa establishment in this mixed-conifer forest is likely governed by a complex suite of environmental factors that vary across fine spatiotemporal scales.

Vegetation dynamics following compound disturbance in a dry pine forest: fuel treatment then bark beetle outbreak.

In the western United States, restoration of forests with historically frequent, low-severity fire regimes often includes fuel reduction that reestablish open, early-seral conditions while reducing fuel continuity and loading. Between 2001 and 2016, fuel reduction (e.g., thinning, prescribed burning, etc.) was implemented on over 26million hectares of federal lands alone in the United States, reflecting the urgency to mitigate risk from high-severity wildfire. However, between 2001 and 2012, nearly 20million hectares in the United States were impacted by mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae), compounding restoration effects in wildfire-hazard-treated stands. Knowledge of the effects of treatments followed by natural disturbance on long-term forest structure and communities is needed, especially considering that fuel treatments are increasingly being implemented and warming climate is predicted to exacerbate disturbance frequency and severity. We tested the interacting effects of treatments designed to reduce high-severity wildfire hazard in stands subsequently challenged by MPB outbreak on vegetation dynamics using a factorial experimental design (control, thin only, burn only, thin + burn) in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)-dominated forest. Stands were treated by 2002, then impacted by MPB outbreak from 2005 to 2012. We assessed change in overstory and understory forest community structure, composition, and diversity over time. There were distinct thinning, burning, and year effects. Thinning immediately reduced overstory density; pine density then declined 4.5 times more in unthinned than thinned treatments due to MPB. Burning immediately reduced graminoid, shrub, and total understory cover by as much as 52%, resulting in greater species evenness than unburned treatments, but differences disappeared by 2016 due to growth and MPB outbreak. Similarly, multivariate analyses indicated forest communities were starkly different after treatment but became more similar over time, though key understory and overstory attributes still distinguish control and thin + burn. This study shows the value of long-term silvicultural experiments to evaluate treatment longevity and the compounded effects of treatment and natural disturbance. We demonstrate the homogenizing effects of treatment-induced growth coupled with MPB-caused tree mortality on management strategies that just treat the overstory (thinning) or understory (burning), showing that only combined treatments can provide the unique structural and compositional outcomes expected of restoration.

Cold Tolerance of Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Pupae.

Determining the cold tolerance of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is critical for assessing its long-term persistence and eruptive potential in its new habitat, as well as the risk of continued range expansion across Canada's boreal forest. We used supercooling points (SCPs) and mortality assessments with exposure to different temperatures to determine the cold tolerance of pupae. Mountain pine beetle pupae cold tolerance did not increase with chilling and there was little change in the lethal temperature regardless of treatment or sample time. SCPs were reflective of expected mortality due to freezing: the lethal temperature for 50% mortality was -19.3°C and the mean SCP was -18.7°C. However, significant mortality occurred over time at much warmer temperatures (0 and -9°C), indicating that this life stage suffers significant prefreeze mortality. On the basis of our results, it is unlikely that pupae would be able to successfully overwinter in most regions in Canada. This study is part of a larger project aimed at producing a comprehensive assessment of the cold tolerance of all life stages of the mountain pine beetle to feed population models, climatic suitability indices, and spread assessments.

Hiding Without Cover? Defining Elk Security in a Beetle‐Killed Forest

ABSTRACTRecent mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; pine beetle) outbreaks in the western United States have affected nearly 18 million ha of pine (Pinusspp.) forest and are unprecedented in spatial extent, severity, and duration, yet little is known about wildlife responses to large‐scale insect outbreaks. Elk (Cervus canadensis) are important wildlife whose dominant management paradigm on public lands has focused on providing security habitat to increase survival during hunting seasons and to maintain elk presence on public lands to promote hunter opportunity. To assess the effect of pine beetles and associated changes in forest structure on elk security, we used a time series to characterize canopy cover pre‐ and post‐pine beetle outbreak, characterized relative canopy cover among the dominant forest types in the study area post‐pine beetle outbreak, and used global positioning system location data from male and female elk to define habitat relationships and security during the archery and rifle hunting seasons. Our study area was within the Elkhorn Mountains of southwest Montana, USA, 2015–2017, which experienced 80% mortality of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests during a pine beetle outbreak that peaked in 2008. We observed an 8.5% reduction in canopy cover within pine beetle‐infested lodgepole pine forests, yet canopy cover remained relatively high among other forest types post‐outbreak. The top‐ranked habitat security models contained positive relationships with canopy cover, distance to motorized routes, terrain ruggedness, and slope with few notable differences among sexes and seasons. Across sexes and seasons, 75% and 50% of elk use was within areas with average canopy cover values ≥31 ± 6.65 (SD)% and ≥53 ± 5.7% that were an average of ≥2,072 ± 187.93 m and ≥3,496 ± 157.32 m from a motorized route, respectively. Therefore, we recommend fall elk security be defined as areas that meet these criteria for minimum canopy cover and distance from motorized routes in the Elkhorn Mountains and in other landscapes with similar forest characteristics and hunting pressures. Although we observed expected reductions in canopy cover within pine beetle‐infested forests, defoliation alone did not appear to negatively affect elk security or reduce canopy cover below our management recommendations. Nonetheless, because of the prevalence of standing dead trees in our study area, we recommend future work that investigates the relationships with pine beetle‐infested areas post‐blowdown because changes in ground structure and costs of locomotion may affect elk habitat and security. © 2019 The Authors.Journal of Wildlife Managementpublished by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

Modelling landscape genetic connectivity of the mountain pine beetle in western Canada

The current mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) outbreak has reached more than 25 million hectares of forests in North America, affecting pine species throughout the region and substantially changing landscapes. However, landscape features that enhance or limit dispersal during the geographic expansion associated with the outbreak are poorly understood. One of the obstacles in evaluating the effects of landscape features on dispersal is the parameterization of resistance surfaces, which are often constructed based on biased expert opinion or by making assumptions in the calculation of ecological distances. In this study, we assessed the impact of four environmental variables on MPB genetic connectivity across western Canada. We optimized resistance surfaces using genetic algorithms and models of maximum likelihood population effects, based on pairwise genetic distances and ecological distances calculated using random-walk commute-time distances. Unlike other methods for the development of resistance surfaces, this approach does not make a priori assumptions about the direction or shape of the relationships between environmental features and their cost to movement. We found highest support for a composite resistance surface including elevation and climate. These results further the understanding of MPB movement during an outbreak. Additionally, we demonstrated how to use our results for management purposes.

Juvenile thinning can effectively mitigate the effects of drought on tree growth and water consumption in a young Pinus contorta stand in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

Large-scale forest disturbances including mountain pine beetle infestation and forest fires have generated overstocked lodgepole pine stands in the interior of British Columbia. A critical need is to determine sustainable management strategies to ensure their healthy growth and provision of various ecological functions under increased drought risk due to climate change. In 2016, a field experiment was established to study the effects of juvenile thinning on carbon assimilation and water use at the both tree- and stand-scales in a 16-year old lodgepole pine stand from June to October in 2016 and 2017. This study located northeast of Penticton, British Columbia, included two thinning treatments (T1: 4500 stems per ha; and T2: 1100 stems per ha) and one control (C: 27,000 stems per ha), randomly assigned in three blocks. Sap flow and microclimatic variables were continuously monitered in one plot of each treatment in one block, while tree diameter at breast height were measured across the three blocks. The results showed that C had the lowest tree radial growth (0.14 mm2/d), sap flow velocity (64.61 g/cm2d), and highest stand transpiration (4.36 mm/d), while T2 had the highest tree radial growth (1.28 mm2/d), sap flow velocity (149.14 g/cm2d), and lowest stand transpiration (0.36 mm/d) over the two-year study period. Significant differences of tree radial growth and sap flow velocity between T1 and T2 only occurred under the drought condition (in the summer season of 2017), with T2 having a significant higher resistant index of sap flow velocity than C and T1, by taking advantage of the change in microclimatic conditions following intense thinning. At the stand-level, only the stand transpiration of T1 statistically decreased in the drought year. We conclude that the thinning plays a significant and positive role in maintaining tree growth and water consumption in the short term, and the more heavily thinning (T2) would be more effective to mitigate the drought effect in young overstocking lodgepole pine forests in terms of water consumption. These findings improve our understanding on how thinning can be used to manage ecological responses to forest practices in a changing climate.

Adaptive capacity in social–ecological systems: a framework for addressing bark beetle disturbances in natural resource management

The ability of natural resource agencies to act before, during, and after outbreaks of conifer bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is important to ensure the continued provision of ecosystem services. Adaptive capacity refers to the capability of an agent or system to adapt to change, regardless of whether it is examined as an independent social or ecological entity, or as a coupled social–ecological system. Understanding the components of a disturbance and the associated effects to ecosystem services, social systems, and natural resource management increases the ability to adapt to change and ensure continued resilience. This paper presents a definition and conceptual framework of adaptive capacity relevant to bark beetle disturbances that was developed through an interdisciplinary workshop held in 2016. The intent is to assist natural resource managers and policy-makers in identifying important adaptation characteristics to effectively address bark beetle disturbances. The current state of knowledge regarding institutional, social, and environmental factors that influence adaptive capacity are identified. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in the western USA is used as a specific example to discuss several factors that influence adaptive capacity for increasing resilience. We hope that our proposed framework serves as a model for future collaborations among both social and physical scientists and land managers to better address landscape-level disturbances that are being exacerbated by climate change.

Improving Mountain Pine Beetle Survival Predictions Using Multi-Year Temperatures Across the Western USA

Global climate change has led to an increase in large-scale bark beetle outbreaks in forests around the world, resulting in significant impacts to forest ecosystems, timber economies, and forest-dependent communities. As such, prediction models that utilize temperature for estimating future bark beetle locations and consequential tree mortality are critical for informing forest management decision-making in an attempt to mitigate and adapt to pending and current outbreaks. This is especially true for physiological models that account for the effects of overwinter temperatures on bark beetle survival, as seasonal temperatures, specifically during winter months, exert the greatest impact on bark beetle mortality during various stages of life cycle development. Yet, how temperature observations are used to predict bark beetle survival can significantly under- or over-estimate the role that temperature variability plays in annual tree mortality, especially under current climate change trajectories. This study evaluates how representations of winter temperature influence bark beetle survival estimates. Using the recent outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) across the western USA as a case study, single-year to decade-long winter temperature averages were used as inputs into a physiological beetle survival prediction model, the results of which were compared against beetle-induced tree mortality observations using temporal autoregressive models. Results show that using longer-term survival averages of seven to ten years significantly increases the likelihood that temperature alone can predict general levels of beetle survival and hence beetle-induced mortality. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the role of long-term temperature observations when forecasting bark beetle outbreaks, and that year-to-year temperature variability may be constrained in predicting beetle survival during outbreak periods.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)

Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of D. ponderosae according to both historical climate data (1987–2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021–2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for D. ponderosae are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north–south direction are larger than these in the east–west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment.

Whitebark Pine in Crater Lake and Lassen Volcanic National Parks: Assessment of Stand Structure and Condition in a Management and Conservation Perspective

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis. Engelm.) is vulnerable to a number of threats including an introduced pathogen (Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch.), epidemic levels of native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), fire suppression, and climate change. To describe the structure of whitebark pine populations in two national parks in the southern Cascades (Crater Lake, Oregon, USA (CRLA) and Lassen Volcanic, California, USA (LAVO) National Parks), we surveyed trees in 30 × 50 × 50 m plots in both parks. We used these plots to describe the extent of white pine blister rust (the disease caused by Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle occurrence, and to elucidate factors influencing the presence of pests and pathogens, cone production, and canopy kill. In each plot, we recorded data related to tree health, including symptoms of blister rust and mountain pine beetle, and reproductive vigor (cone production). In both parks, encroachment from other species, particularly mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière), was negatively associated with cone production. In CRLA, water stress was a good predictor of blister rust infection and cone production. For CRLA and LAVO, the presence of mountain pine beetle and blister rust was associated with higher canopy kill for whitebark pine. Lastly, we found evidence for a pest-pathogen interaction, mountain pine beetle attack was greater for trees that showed symptoms of blister rust infection in CRLA. Our results indicate that whitebark pine populations in the southern Cascade Range are experiencing moderate levels of blister rust infection compared with other sites across the species range, and that competition from shade-tolerant species may result in an additional threat to whitebark pine in both parks. We present our findings in the context of park management and situate them in range-wide and regional conservation strategies aimed at the protection and restoration of a declining species.