Demographic Trends Research Articles

Genetic diversity and diversification patterns of puma (Puma concolor) populations in the southern end of the species distribution

The puma (Puma concolor Linnaeus, 1771) is the top predator with the widest distribution in America. Since the establishment of European settlers on the American continent, puma populations have experienced significant contractions and reductions in their original distribution. In Argentina, the management of the conflict between humans and pumas (direct persecution and habitat modification) focused on reduction or elimination methods, leading to a drastic contraction, even total eradication, of puma populations as seen in Patagonia and the eastern part of the country. Despite the lack of knowledge about puma population demographic trends, there are taxonomic issues that remain controversial and need to be resolved to implement appropriate management and conservation measures. Therefore, the aim of this study was to genetically characterize puma populations in the central-southern region of Argentina using two mitochondrial markers, evaluate their demographic history, compare our results at a macro-regional level, and discuss our findings in a conservation and management context. A total of 203 individuals were used, and a fragment of the control region and another of ND5 were sequenced. The genetic variability obtained was moderate. Substitution rates for each locus and the tMRCA were calculated from calibrated trees. In a concatenated tree, two main phylogenetic clades were identified (posterior probability = 1), although a reciprocal monophyly was not observed, with a divergence time of 228 thousand years and a 95% CI [117–363 thousand years]. When evaluating population structuring, three genetic clusters were found, one characteristic of the Patagonian region and the others in the central part of the country. Calculating the ФST values for pairs resulted in significant structuring between Patagonia and the rest of the populations, suggesting the arid diagonal as a possible barrier to gene flow. When evaluating the demographic history, neutrality tests would support a recent expansion in Patagonia. These findings are crucial in defining two distinct Management Units (MUs) in the southern part of puma distribution and providing valuable information for management and conservation measures for the species.

ThP3.15 - Trends in ERCP in a new city teaching hospital; is there a learning curve for a unit?

Abstract Aims Describe trends in volume, demographics, and complications over time for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in a new endoscopy unit. Methods Prospective recording of all ERCPs in a new city teaching hospital commenced when the unit opened in 2015. This registry recorded patient demographics, indications, procedural data and complications. We analysed annual trends over time using linear regression. Results 4504 ERCPs were performed during the study period (1/6/15-31/5/23), with a female predominance of 58%. Median age (70 years, interquartile range 59-80) was unchanged over the study period, however the proportion under 30 years had decreased over time (4%-1%, slope -0.93, p=0.042). Total number of procedures per year has decreased over time (peak 628 in 2016, falling to 438 in 2022). The proportion performed for stone disease has fallen over the study period (80%-71%, slope -0.07, p=<0.001). Though not a statistically significant difference, the rate of ERCP pancreatitis has had a clinically significant decrease over time (5.4%-3.9%, slope -0.033, p=0.32). Conclusion A number of changes in practice have occurred since three units were merged into one unit. We routinely give diclofenac and IV fluids post-procedure. We now preferentially treat younger stone patients with laparoscopic cholecystectomy and common bile duct exploration. This results in an evolving use of contemporary ERCP with an older patient cohort with an increased indication of cancer and other reasons and fewer total numbers. These factors will contribute to a lower incidence of pancreatitis post-procedure but cannot discount a learning curve effect for a new unit.

The state of primary healthcare centers in Saudi Arabia: A regional analysis for 2022.

This study examines the 2022 distribution of primary healthcare centers across Saudi Arabia's 20 regions, focusing on disparities and healthcare accessibility. A quantitative analysis of the Ministry of Health's data was conducted. Primary healthcare centers distribution was evaluated by calculating the number of primary healthcare centers per 100,000 population across different administrative regions. The study uncovered regional disparities, with the PHCs-per-100,000-people ratio showing significant variance. Regions like Riyadh had an above-average ratio with 7.5 PHCs-per-100,000-people, while Jeddah lagged behind with a concerning 3.2 PHCs-per-100,000-people despite being a populous city. The PHC-per-capita ratio declined to 6.6 in 2022 from 8.0 in 2017. The data also revealed that the Eastern Province showed an increase in the number of primary healthcare centers. Disparities in the distribution of primary healthcare centers in 2022 highlight a critical need for equitable healthcare access across Saudi Arabia. Many regions require increased primary healthcare center allocation to match population needs. The findings underscore the urgency of integrating these insights into policy frameworks to achieve the goals of Vision 2030, emphasizing the development of a sustainable and equitable healthcare system. Policymakers need to consider these disparities to guide the strategic placement of primary healthcare centers and ensure an equitable healthcare system. This study provides a basis for targeted policy interventions to improve healthcare equity and prepare the health system for future demographic and epidemiological transitions.

The empirical evidence of digital trends in more disadvantaged European Union regions in terms of income and population density

AbstractRemote rural and postindustrial regions are much more vulnerable to population drain in comparison with industrialized centers and capitals, due to obvious reasons such as meager job opportunities, difficulties in accessing public services in education, healthcare and transport, housing, entertainment, lack of integration with other territories and, finally, less advanced levels of digitalization. This represents an open challenge for the European Union within the framework of its Cohesion Policy. This paper analyzes the impact of digital trends, represented by the percentage of the population with access to internet and broadband and the percentage of individuals who buy goods and internet services (percentages provided by Eurostat) in less populated EU NUTS2 regions with lower income, on the crude population growth rate composed of natural changes in population and migratory flows and on the unemployment rate by applying panel data analysis. It has been possible to confirm that digitalization has a positive impact on natural changes in population in EU regions with lower economic development. On the contrary, the unemployment rate does not affect natural changes in population, but it does have a negative impact on migratory flows. The findings show that digitalization may contribute to reversing negative demographic trends in more disadvantaged EU regions in terms of income and population density.

Changing Epidemiology of Chronic Hepatitis C: A University Hospital Experience

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a significant public health problem worldwide, with varying epidemiological trends over time necessitating continual surveillance and intervention strategies. Objectives: This retrospective study aimed to examine trends in demographics, transmission routes, and disease characteristics among 635 patients diagnosed with HCV infection between 2003 and 2023. Methods: Data on demographics, HCV RNA levels, liver enzymes, genotype distribution, and transmission routes were retrospectively analyzed. The study period was divided into four segments for detailed analysis. Results: There was a gradual increase in the diagnosed cases over the study period, particularly noticeable after 2012. The mean age at diagnosis remained stable from 2003 - 2007 to 2008 - 2012 but decreased significantly in the following years (P = 0.001). Male predominance was observed throughout the study, with a notable increase in the male/female ratio over time (P < 0.001). Intravenous drug use (IVDU) emerged as the predominant transmission route, reaching 68.3% in 2018 - 2022 (P < 0.001). The prevalence of incarceration history among patients increased significantly, reaching 24.6% in 2018 - 2022 (P < 0.001). Disease characteristics varied between periods; median HCV RNA levels were highest in 2018 - 2022, and median alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels differed significantly between periods (P = 0.001). The genotype distribution showed a shift over time, with genotype 1 predominating initially and genotypes 3, 4, and 5 becoming more prevalent in later years (P < 0.001). Conclusions: This study highlights the dynamic changes in hepatitis C epidemiology over two decades in southern Turkey, highlighting the increasing burden in younger populations, the increasing prevalence of IVDU as a transmission route, and the changing genotype distribution.

Factor Modelling of Russian Parents’ Opinions on the Impact of the Parental Leave System on the Birth Rate

In the context of the negative demographic trend in Russia, new mechanisms for stimulating birth rates are of particular relevance. One such instrument is parental leave policy. The aim of our study is to model the impact of potential transformations in parental leave on the reproductive intentions of Russian parents using factor analysis. In 2022, we conducted a survey of Russian parents with children under the age of 18 months. The sample consisted of 1,000 individuals, and the survey covered nearly all regions of Russia. We identified two main components: 1. Opinions on the flexibility of the parental leave system as a factor for improving birth rates; 2. Opinions on the amount of parental leave benefits as a factor for improving birth rates. We found significant correlations between the values of these components and several socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, including gender, age, satisfaction with the current division of parental responsibilities within the family, the desire to legally mandate fathers to take a portion of parental leave in Russia, and the prospective evaluation of the financial status change if mandatory paternal leave were to be introduced. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the necessity and feasibility of improving the existing parental leave system in Russia and its potential impact on birth rates.

Effectiveness of demographic policy measures in addressing population decline in contemporary Russia

Demographic policy is one of the key tasks of almost any state at the present time. It correlates with the solution of pressing problems in the economic and social spheres, directly depends on the state of healthcare, education, migration policy and other factors and directly affects the socio-economic development of both individual regions and the country as a whole. Many Russian and foreign researchers believe that demographic indicators very accurately reflect the socio-economic and political situation of the state. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that for the progressive socio-economic development of any country, positive demographic dynamics are necessary. The main sign of the negative demographic situation that has developed in modern Russia and a number of countries, primarily European, is the growing scale of depopulation (population extinction). The purpose of this work was to analyze the existing demographic policy of Russia and compare demographic trends in Russia and other countries. The work uses methods of statistical data analysis, comparison of statistical indicators of fertility, mortality, natural population decline, migration, marriage rates in Russia and the Republic of Srpska, methods of retrospective analysis, research of the institutional environment created by the action of state and national programs “Demography”, “Providing accessible and comfortable housing and public services for citizens of the Russian Federation”, “Strategy of socio-economic development for the period until 2024”, Presidential decrees, etc. Research has shown that despite measures taken to overcome the demographic crisis, Russia’s population continues to decline. According to the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), as of 1 January 2023, 146.45 million people lived in Russia. By 1 January 2046, according to a Rosstat forecast published in October 2023 the country’s population will decrease to 138.77 million people. To solve demographic problems in the Russian Federation, a national project “Demography” was developed and approved. The government has allocated more than 3 trillion rubles for its implementation. However, it is not possible to completely overcome the negative trend. The authors proposed a number of economic and ideological measures within the framework of agglomeration, migration, and family support policies that can be used within the framework of socio-economic development strategies and national programs aimed at overcoming the demographic crisis.

Novel trends of frequency, demographics and clinical presentation of skin disorders in only public hospital in south of Lahore: A Descriptive observational study over 1 year.

Objective: To study the pattern of skin diseases in our population with respect to different age groups, gender and seasonal variations. Study Design: Observational Retrospective study. Setting: Department of Dermatology, Lahore General Hospital, a tertiary care referral hospital situated in second big city of Pakistan i.e Lahore. Period: July 2021 to June 2022. Methods: A total of 65284 patients presenting to skin OPD were studied. Demographic details were noted and diagnosis was made after detailed history, examination and appropriate investigations like scraping or smears. Data was analyzed for various age groups, gender distribution and effect of variables on diagnosis. Results: Out of 65284 patients, 38 %were male & 62% were female. Most of the patients (43%) were in age group of 21-40 years. Scabies was the most prevalent dermatosis and affected 27% of study population. Three most common dermatosis were tinea, scabies and acne. The maximum number of dermatosis was seen in the months of summer. Conclusion: Infectious diseases pose a major burden to skin health of most of the population suffering from dermatological problem. Fungal infections and scabies are treatable but very common diseases contributing in burden of dermatological disorder in population presenting to hospitals.

Ethnodemographic Processes in the Border Regions of Asian Russia in the New Conditions of the Turn to the East

The analysis of ethnodemographic processes is relevant not only because of the negative demographic trends growing in the regions of Asian Russia, but also in connection with Russia’s turn to the East. The authors of the article give a detailed description of the modern ethnic composition of the population in the regions of the Ural, Siberian, and Far Eastern Federal Districts of the Russian Federation and the regions bordering them, those of Kazakhstan, China, and Mongolia. The object of the study were Russians, Kazakhs, Tuvinians, Mongols, and Chinese. Special attention is paid to the analysis of their number and location, and the identification of factors and consequences of changes in the ethnic composition of the population. A definitive feature of the border regions is the high proportion and absolute number of those peoples who make up the majority of the population of neighboring States. At the same time, the demographic behavior of the peoples living on different sides of the border differs. In studying the ethnodemographic processes, the increasing demographic asymmetry between the regions of Russia and neighboring states causes the greatest attention and certain concern. In the regions of the Asian part of Russia, the total population is decreasing, largely due to Russians who have a predominant model of reproduction of the population with a low birth rate and relatively high mortality. Kazakhs, Buryats, and Tuvinians in Russia are characterized by stable numbers and reproduction, although there is a tendency to decrease the birth rate. In the border areas of Kazakhstan, the tendency towards a decrease in the number of the Russian population and its replacement by a titular nationality does not weaken.

Pressure injury incidence measurement as a quality improvement strategy: national trends in Switzerland.

This study sought to determine the risk-adjusted (controlled for patient characteristics) trend in pressure injury (PI) incidence in Switzerland. A secondary data analysis was conducted. The data originated from the national PI quality measurement based on a multicentre cross-sectional design with repeated annual measurements. Descriptive statistics, a Cochran-Armitage trend test and logistic (multilevel) regression modelling were applied. The analysis sample comprised 123,715 patients from 230 hospitals over 10 survey years (2011-2019 and 2022). The incidence of descriptive PI varied in Switzerland between 3.7% and 5.6% over the survey years. No linear trend could be found when patient characteristics were not considered. A non-linear trend was detected when controlling for patient characteristics and the time effect (repeated measurement). This was also reflected in the plotted risk-adjusted incidence, which revealed a decrease followed by a levelling off. When only considering the incidence of PIs rated category 2 and higher, there was also a non-linear decreasing trend when controlling for patient characteristics and time effects. If the incidence per survey year were estimated on the basis of patient characteristics, an increase in the incidence would have been expected. Although patients' risk of developing a PI increased between 2011-2022, the incidence of PIs in Switzerland first decreased and then levelled off. The results indicated that care quality in Swiss hospitals has improved regarding PIs. Nevertheless, in view of demographic trends and increasing staff shortages, it is important to continue to monitor PI incidence and to invest in PI prevention.

Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis.

The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.

Religion and Growth

We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or unleashing technological change and through rituals, legal institutions, political economy, and conflict. Synthesizing a disjoint literature in this way opens many interesting directions for future research. (JEL E22, I25, J10, N30, O33, O43, Z12)

Shifting Trends in the Epidemiology of Cervical Spine Injuries: An Analysis of 11,822 Patients from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System over Two Decades.

Cervical spine injuries (CSIs) are heterogeneous in nature and often lead to long-term disability and morbidity. However, there are few recent and comprehensive epidemiological studies on CSI. The objective of this study was to characterize recent trends in CSI patient demographics, incidence, etiology, and injury level. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System was used to extract data on CSIs from 2002 to 2022. Weighted national estimates of CSI incidence were computed using yearly population estimates interpolated from U.S. census data. Data analysis involved extracting additional information from patient narratives to categorize injury etiology (i.e., fall) and identify CSI level. K-means clustering was performed on cervical levels to define upper versus lower cervical injuries. Appropriate summary statistics including mean with 95% confidence intervals and frequency were reported for age, sex, race, ethnicity, etiology, and disposition. Age between groups was compared using an independent weighted Z-test. All categorical variables were compared using Pearson chi-squared tests with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Ordinary least squares linear regression was used to quantify the rate of change of various metrics with time. A total of 11,822 patient records met the study criteria. The mean age of patients was 62.4 ± 22.7 years, 52.4% of whom were male and 61.4% of whom were White, 7.4% were Black, 27.8% were not specified, and the remaining comprised a variety of ethnicities. The most common mechanism of CSI was a fall (67.3%). There was a significant increase in the incidence of cervical injuries between 2003 and 2022 (p < 0.001). Unbiased K-means clustering defined upper cervical injuries as C1-C3 and lower cervical injuries as C4-C7. The mean age of patients with upper CSIs was 72.3 ± 19.6, significantly greater than the age of those with lower CSIs (57.1 ± 23.1, p < 0.001). Compared with lower CSI, White patients were more likely to have an upper CSI (67.4% vs. 73.7%; p < 0.001). While Black/African American (7.5% vs. 3.8%) and Hispanic (2.5% vs. 1.0%) patients were more likely to have a lower CSI (p < 0.001). Our study identified a significant increase in the incidence of CSIs over time, which was associated with increasing patient age. Our study detected a pragmatic demarcation of classifying upper injuries as C1-C3 and lower cervical injuries as C4-C7. Upper injuries were seen more often in older, White females who were treated and admitted, and lower injuries were seen more often in young, Black male patients who were released without admission.

Demographical and Regional Trends of HIV-Related Mortality Among Young Adults in the United States From 1999 to 2020

BackgroundHIV remains a leading cause of death in the U.S. Previous research has examined mortality patterns among older adults with HIV, revealing regional and demographic disparities. This study aims to assess demographic and regional trends in HIV-related mortality among young adults from 1999 to 2020. MethodsCenters for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database was used to identify young adults aged 15-44 where HIV was mentioned as either underlying or contributory cause of mortality between 1999 and 2020, using the B20-B24 codes from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems-10th Revision (ICD-10). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population and annual percentage change (APC) were determined. ResultsThe AAMRs for HIV in young adults consistently declined from 1999 to 2018, followed by a period of stability from 2018 to 2020 (annual percentage change: 0.5%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], –7.4 to 9.0), with 64% deaths occurred in medical facilities. Overall, males had a twice AAMR than females (female: 2.22, 95% CI 2.19-2.24; male: 5.19, 95% CI 5.15-5.23). Non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks had sevenfold higher mortality rates than Whites (AAMR 14.88 vs. 2.036). The Southern region experienced threefold higher mortality compared to the Midwest. Metropolitan adults had a twofold higher AAMR than nonmetropolitan adults. States in the top 90th percentile for HIV-related mortality, including Mississippi, Maryland, Florida, Louisiana, and the District of Columbia, exhibited six times higher mortality compared to states in the bottom 10th percentile, such as North Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Utah. ConclusionsTo address these disparities and ensure continued progress, urgent measures are required.

Letter to the Editor Regarding “Bibliometric Analysis of Publications From 2011–2020 in 6 Major Neurosurgical Journals (Part 1): Geographic, Demographic, and Article Type Trends"

Letter to the Editor Regarding “Bibliometric Analysis of Publications From 2011–2020 in 6 Major Neurosurgical Journals (Part 1): Geographic, Demographic, and Article Type Trends"

Demographic History and English Culture

In England, the period from the late Middle Ages through early modernity was bookended by demographic change. On one edge, there was the Black Death and subsequent plague pandemics, which halved the population, reshaping English society in their wake. On the other, there was the demographic transition of the mid-eighteenth century, which reduced death rates and led to modern family structures. Between these two epochal events, demographic trends shaped English customs and values, and were in turn shaped by them. The articles in this special issue draw on cutting-edge demographic research to offer new interpretations of the effects of plague, patterns of marriage, evolving forms of labor, and the morality of crime and charity, among other subjects. Together, they illustrate how quantitative studies in historical demography can shed light on key transformations in culture and society—and vice versa.

Трудовые ресурсы в условиях военной опасности как ключевой фактор повышения промышленного потенциала

The article examines the problem of mobilising the industrial potential of Russia in terms of the growing military danger during SMO under decrease in the demographic and labour potential of the Russian Federation. The authors emphasize the effective involvement of labour resources is a key element for development of the industrial potential. Those are necessary to counter the increasing escalation of the military conflict and the desire of Western countries for military and political defeat of Russia. However, the reduction of labour potential and the aging of the population can cause serious socio-economic and political problems. A liberal approach to migration poses long-term threats to the State. Unregulated migration processes will inevitably cause an increase in unemployment, a decrease in the share Russian nation itself, loss of national identity, social tension, and cultural, ethnic, and religious conflicts. It requires a thorough systematised approach and effective monitoring of demographic trends. The state should find a balance between attracting labour from outside and increasing its own labour resources. It also should provide the rational use of existing labour resources.

Temporal Trends in Takotsubo Syndrome: Results From the International Takotsubo Registry

BackgroundThe perception of takotsubo syndrome (TTS) has evolved significantly over the years, primarily driven by increased recognition of acute complications and mortality. ObjectivesThis study aimed to explore temporal trends in demographic patterns, risk factors, clinical presentations, and outcomes in patients with TTS. MethodsPatients diagnosed with TTS between 2004 and 2021 were enrolled from the InterTAK (International Takotsubo) registry. To assess temporal trends, patients were divided into 6 groups, each corresponding to a 3-year interval within the study period. ResultsOverall, 3,957 patients were included in the study. There was a significant demographic transition, with the proportion of male patients rising from 10% to 15% (P = 0.003). Although apical TTS remained the most common form, the diagnosis of midventricular TTS increased from 18% to 28% (P = 0.018). The prevalence of physical triggers increased from 39% to 58% over the years (P < 0.001). There was a significant increase in 60-day mortality over the years (P < 0.001). However, a landmark analysis excluding patients who died within the first 60 days showed no differences in 1-year mortality (P = 0.150). ConclusionsThis study of temporal trends in TTS highlights a transition in patients demographic with a growing prevalence among men, increasing recognition of midventricular TTS type, and increased short-term mortality and rates of cardiogenic shock in recent years. This transition aligns with the rising prevalence of physical triggers, as expression of increased recognition of TTS in association with acute comorbidities.

Gender and adolescent sexual and reproductive health and rights in West and Central Africa: New evidence and emerging gaps.

The West and Central Africa (WCA) region is a natural resource-rich, 24-country, contiguous area with a population of nearly 500 million people. The median age for the region is currently 18 years and approximately one-third of its population is aged between 10 and 24 years. If current demographic trends in the region persist, its population will reach 1.5 billion by 2050. At that time, WCA will not only have the largest number of young people globally, but it will also be the only part of the world whose population of young people will continue to increase1. Many countries in the region are also or have recently been involved in armed conflicts, which have devastated infrastructure, displaced people, stifled development, and more importantly, resulted in myriad deaths and morbidities.

Labor force and macroeconomic projections overview and highlights, 2023–33

Projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics continue to be influenced by demographic trends. These trends are projected to result in subdued labor force and employment growth over the 2023–33 projections period. This slower growth also affects gross domestic product (GDP), which is projected to grow at a modest annual rate of 1.9 percent through the 2023–33 projections period. Additionally, the labor force, employment, and GDP have recovered since the 2020 recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. This rebound leaves less room for growth as the economy was at or near full employment in 2023.