Demographic Theory Research Articles

Can Aging be Programmed?

Aging diminishes individual fitness, and aging could never evolve as an adaptive program according to the most prevalent model of evolutionary theory. On the other hand, some mechanisms of aging have been found to be conserved since the Cambrian explosion, and the physiology of aging sometimes looks like programmed self-destruction. Biostatisticians find evidence of an epigenetic aging clock, extending the clock that controls the growth and development into a realm of inexorably increasing mortality. These and other observations have suggested to some biologists that our understanding of aging is being constrained by restrictive evolutionary paradigms. Several computational models have been proposed; but evolution of an aging program requires group selection on a scale that goes beyond the theory of multilevel selection, a perspective that is already controversial. So, the question whether plausible models exist that can account for aging as a group-selected adaptation is central to our understanding of what aging is, where it comes from and, importantly, how anti-aging medicine might most propitiously be pursued. In a 2016 Aging Cell article, Kowald and Kirkwood reviewed computational models that evolve aging as an adaptation. They find fault with each of these models in turn, based on theory alone, and on this basis, they endorse the standing convention that aging must be understood in terms of trade-off models. But consideration of the corpus of experimental evidence creates a picture that stands in counterpoint to the conclusions of that review. Presented herein is a broad summary of that evidence, together with a description of one model that Kowald and Kirkwood omitted, the demographic theory of aging, which may be the most conservative, and therefore most plausible of the alternative evolutionary theories, and which is the subject of a book by the present author, published contemporaneously with Kowald and Kirkwood.

Forecast accuracy hardly improves with method complexity when completing cohort fertility

Forecasts of completed fertility predict how many children will be born on average by women over their entire reproductive lifetime. These forecasts are important in informing public policy and influencing additional research in the social sciences. However, nothing is known about how to choose a forecasting method from a large basket of variants. We identified 20 major methods, with 162 variants altogether. The approaches range from naive freezing of current age-specific fertility rates to methods that use statistically sophisticated techniques or are grounded in demographic theory. We assess each method by evaluating the overall accuracy and if provided, uncertainty estimates using fertility data of all available birth cohorts and countries of the Human Fertility Database, which covers 1,096 birth cohorts from 29 countries. Across multiple measures of forecast accuracy, we find only four methods that consistently outperform the naive freeze rates method, and only two methods produce uncertainty estimates that are not severely downward biased. Among the top four, there are two simple extrapolation methods and two Bayesian methods. The latter are demanding in terms of input data, statistical techniques, and computational power but do not consistently complete cohort fertility more accurately at all truncation ages than simple extrapolation. This broad picture is unchanged if we base the validation on 201 United Nations countries and six world regions, including Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, northern America, and Oceania.

The influence of the cultural entrepreneur on the performance of cultural and creative firms

PropósitoEl propósito de este artículo es analizar la influencia del perfil de los emprendedores culturales (EC), en relación a sus características demográficas y los recursos que posee, sobre el rendimiento de las empresas culturales y creativas (ECCs) creadas y dirigidas por ellos.Diseño/metodología/enfoqueA partir de la Teoría Demográfica y la Teoría Basada en los Recursos, se han formulado dos hipótesis que han sido testadas empíricamente, usando un modelo de regresión múltiple, sobre una muestra de 80 ECCs españolas. Para medir el rendimiento de la ECC, se han utilizado dos medidas objetivas (crecimiento del empleo y rentabilidad) y una subjetiva (grado de satisfacción del EC con la consecución de los objetivos).ResultadosEl estudio realizado pone de manifiesto, respecto a las variables demográficas, una relación negativa entre la edad del EC y el crecimiento del empleo, y una influencia positiva parcial de la experiencia previa del EC sobre el crecimiento del empleo y la medida subjetiva del rendimiento. En cuanto a los recursos del EC, nuestros resultados muestran que no existe relación directa entre la posesión de los recursos analizados —financieros, de conocimiento y sociales— y el rendimiento de la ECC.Originalidad/valorEste trabajo realiza tres contribuciones importantes, ya que analiza la figura del CE, centrándose en la dirección de las ECCs, un tema poco estudiado en la literatura de emprendimiento. Se estudian algunas variables del perfil demográfico del emprendedor que han sido aplicadas a equipos de alta dirección y de manera más o menos aislada en el campo del emprendimiento. Y, finalmente, se utiliza una medida multidimensional para explicar el rendimiento de las ECCs.

ПІДГОТОВКА МАЙБУТНІХ СОЦІОЛОГІВ ДО КОМП’ЮТЕРНОГО АНАЛІЗУ ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ І СТРУКТУР

In the modern era of digital globalization, it is becoming more and more important to train sociology students in the field of demographics and demographic statistics based not only on demographic theories but also on the practical application of the new computer tools and technologies, databases and Internet services. The article analyzes the capabilities of modern computer tools for the analysis of demographic processes and structures in training sociology students; substantiates the use of the R environment as a tool for analysis and graphical representation of demographic data. It presents the idea of teaching students to perform computer analysis of demographic data using a combination of Excel spreadsheets, SPSS statistical package, R environment illustrated by two examples. The first example concerns building and comparing the gender-age pyramid of the population of Ukraine at different years and includes searching for the relevant data, building the pyramid using standard diagram building Excel tools, using SPSS tools (Chart Builder, Histogram, Population Pyramid), and using pyramid package of R environment. The second example relates to calculation of childcare and grandparent care load coefficients, visualizing their dynamics, and includes an introduction to the demographic passport of Ukraine. The article presents the developed methodological support for teaching sociology students to perform demographic data analysis, including presentation-lectures on the fundamental principles of work in R and R Studio environment, laboratory works (theory summary, detailed operative instructions, control questions, tasks for students ‘ independent work); data packages attached to every assignment. The author has analyzed the didactic capabilities of the free Gapminder service that includes the list of the tools titled `Play with Data`, bubble chart, maps, ranking, trends, age pyramids. This provides colorful and dynamic data visualization for chosen demographic criteria (depending on the research objectives) by countries and continents over time that stimulates the students to conduct additional scientific research.

Organizational Culture Mitigates Lower Ratings of Female Supervisors

The present study addresses a lack of literature examining contextual factors when investigating gender norms and leader effectiveness. Supervisor–subordinate dyads were assessed for gender dissimilarity effects on ratings of leadership effectiveness. The effect of organizational culture as a moderating force on these effects was also investigated. Results bolster relational demography theory, such that supervisors who fit existing norms (i.e., male supervisors) were rated higher than supervisors that do not (i.e., female supervisors). However, lower ratings for female supervisors were mitigated by effective organizational cultures.

IN SEARCH OF THEORY: PROSPECTS OF POPULATION RESEARCH IN COUNTRIES THAT HAVE COMPLETED THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The article continues the discussion on the ways of further development of the demographic theory initiated by A.Vishnevsky’s article in the first issue of the journal. In the author’s opinion, Vishnevsky’s “demographic eschatology” is incompatible with real political practices, as evidenced, in particular, by the biographies of A.Landry, the creator of the theory of the demographic revolution, and K. Davis, one of the founders of the theory of demographic transition. Landry was never guided by “demographic fatalism” in his political activities and Davis, praising administrative methods of reducing fertility in the Asian countries, opposed passive expectation of the fruits of modernization. The article shapes the approaches to the theoretical understanding of population issues that lie outside the framework of the theory of the demographic revolution/transition: theorizing aimed at finding mechanisms, not laws; adaptation of theories developed in other scientific disciplines to the description of these mechanisms; interpretation of post-transition demographic development as a movement between attractors, the speed and direction of which is determined by available economic resources and established institutions. According to the author, the interaction of mortality, fertility and migration, which occupies a central place in Vishnevsky’s concept, cannot explain many of the problems associated with the impact of demographic development on the modern world. To analyze such problems, it is necessary to design systems that include not only demographic, but also social, economic and political variables. The possibilities of such an approach are shown on the example of a study of political & demographic mechanisms that led to the unexpected for most experts victory of supporters of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union and the election of D.Trump as the president of the United States.

Out of Time, Out of Place: Primitivism and African Art

<p>This article debates the proposition that artistic production mirrors humanity’s maturation from primitive superstition to scientific rationality. This effort sits at the intersection of demography, political economy and aesthetics. According to traditional demographic theory, primitive peoples are caught in a poverty trap of high birth rates, a condition inimical to industrialization, well-planned urbanization, universal education, women’s emancipation and cultural production. The analysis focuses on three dynamics: the demographic effects of mass migration on creativity: the trajectories of declining populations and their places in cultural hierarchies; and slavery and colonialism’s reduction to penury of skilled artists in pre-industrial societies. The method interrogates self-reinforcing trends of the canons of demography, political economy and aesthetics and the resulting concurrence on the path of progress, which assumes that art is a reflection of liberal historical advancement. The overarching argument of the article is that by setting the criteria and suppressing alternative accounts of the history of African art, these canons narrow and misrepresent our global cultural legacy. Background: sub-Saharan African art is classified as “primitive” according to the canons of art history, demography and political economy. This label is problematic because it conveys faulty demographic assumptions about sub-Saharan Africa and reflects the ways in which theories of human progress reinforce analyses underlying the designation of primitive. The proposition advanced is that these canons narrow, suppress alternative accounts of the history of African art, and misrepresent our global cultural legacy.</p>

Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women’s desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.

Migration as an adaptive response to ethnic nationalism in Russia.

In this paper, I argue that migration responses to push factors can differ along ethnic lines. To arrive at migration as an adaptive response in which minorities engage, two processes are necessary. First, an individual making the decision to migrate must interpret ethnic tensions as a threat to her life chances, and she must evaluate her future prospects in this ethnically charged framework. Second, the option of migration must be a viable one. That is, an individual must consider them self the plausible target of the threat of diminishing life chances, conclude that an adaptive response is required, and determine that the benefits of migrating outweigh the costs. In order to explain these processes, the relational theory of ethnic politics (Hale 2008) and demographic theories of migration are employed. To test this hypothesis, an event history model is estimated using regional, household, and individual-level data from Russian censuses and the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The relationship between out-migration and regional nationalist vote share is examined as well as regional hate crimes. The findings suggest that political push factors affect minority groups differently from the ethnic majority, supporting the hypothesis that the success of ethno nationalist politics in a region signals vulnerability to ethnic minorities, influencing migration decisions.

The effects of the Great Recession on American families

AbstractThe Great Recession was marked by historic rates of unemployment and foreclosure and caused substantial household economic hardship and widespread economic uncertainty. I review recent social scientific research on the effects of the Great Recession on American families. I first generate a set of expectations for how the Great Recession would have affected (a) marriage and cohabitation, (b) fertility, and (c) relationship quality and divorce based on existing sociological and demographic theory and research. I then discuss the key methods that scholars have used to gauge the effects of the Great Recession in these outcome areas. My review of research to date indicates that the recession had modest effects on marriage and cohabitation, but significant negative effects on fertility. Notably, these fertility effects are evident among unmarried and low socio‐economic‐status (SES) women whom prior research has suggested decouple fertility from economic concerns. Finally, there is modest evidence that the Great Recession reduced relationship quality, but it appears that the costs of divorce restrained any increase in dissolution.

Демографические теории и региональный аспект старения населения

Демографические теории и региональный аспект старения населения

Measuring the Strength of the Theories of Government Size

This paper investigates the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the determinants of government expenditure and its components. In particular, we systematically assess the evidentiary support for nine different theories using a novel model averaging method that allows for endogeneity. Our results suggest that the government size and its components are explained by multiple mechanisms that work simultaneously but differ in their impact and importance. Hence, policymakers should avoid relying on any particular model to make policy decisions. More precisely, for general government total expenditure we find decisive evidence for the demography theory and a strong evidence for the globalization and political institution theory. In the case of central government total expenditure, we find that income inequality and macroeconomic policy play a decisive role in addition to demography.

<em>Utility of V. O. Key’s Black Population Density Theory in the Desegregation of Southern U.S. Public Universities 1948–1963</em>

Southern state colleges and universities' responses to African American applicants varied considerably from 1940 through 1963. Faced with qualified Black applicants backed by the NAACP, social movements, and federal authorities-some state and university officials admitted Black students with fairly little resistance, whereas others stonewalled, created new barriers, but eventually conceded. Arkansas was the first southern state to admit a Black student to a publicly funded state college, and South Carolina was last. What accounts for the sequence by which the eleven southern states admitted the first African Americans to state universities? This article provides an overview of the first Black entrants to southern state public colleges, analyzes the effects of United States Supreme Court rulings on higher education desegregation, and offers a provisional explanation for how state-level defenses to desegregation fell. The aim is to explain social and political factors that contributed to higher education desegregation in the 50s and 60s, thereby enabling individuals and organizations to formulate strategies to address present day inequities and injustices.To that end, this essay investigates the utility of V. O. Key's (1984) analytical framework in Southern Politics in State and Nation. Key posited that varying rates of Black population density within and across eleven Southern states affected local and regional political development in the mid-twentieth century. In Black Belt counties where African Americans lived and worked in higher numbers, White supremacist elites controlled political institutions to protect their economic and social interests at the state and national level (Key, 1984).Key's analysis showed that while race was part of the political debate, more importantly, the need to control labor in rural agricultural regions drove White elites to devise political strategies to resist federal intervention in southern state and local race-related policies. Elite Whites influenced national elections to ensure a unified bloc would veto Black civil rights legislation in the U.S. Congress. Key also noted that race was not a salient political factor in some areas of the southern states, particularly in cities, the highlands, and coastal areas, where the economy was not dependent on large-scale agriculture. Key noted that demographic and economic changes would eventually transform southern political culture.If Key is correct that the percentage of Black population determined the nature of political control in southern states, then one can estimate that states with the highest percentage of Blacks should offer massive resistance to desegregation because White political elites will influence education policy decisions. Questions raised in this essay are: In the realm of higher education desegregation, does Key's demographic theory explain state level variation in resistance to federal desegregation rulings? Did other social, political, and economic factors affect the timing and circumstances of desegregation in different states?The article begins with a brief history of southern Black education, a table outlining the first undergraduate or graduate Black applicant accepted into a southern public university in each southern state, a comparative analysis of state public universities' level of resistance to desegregation prior to and following the Brown v. Board Education (1954, 1955) rulings, and an examination of four case studies that represent all levels of state university resistance to desegregation. Not all of the first entrants remained at or graduated from these universities. In at least one case, the university accepted students on a segregated basis. This examination does not claim that higher education desegregation ended with the admittance of Black students as many institutions continued to find ways to exclude Black graduate and undergraduate students. The intent is to understand some of the social and political factors that impacted the initial puncture in southern public university desegregation. …

Africa's Unique Fertility Transition

Africa's Unique Fertility Transition

Demographic and Social Cognitive Theory Correlates of Energy Expenditure in Inactive Adults With Multiple Sclerosis

Demographic and Social Cognitive Theory Correlates of Energy Expenditure in Inactive Adults With Multiple Sclerosis

A life-history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments.

Current understanding of life-history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non-stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

Demography beyond the population

SummaryPopulation ecology, the discipline that studies the dynamics of species’ populations and how they interact with the environment, has been one of the most prolific fields of ecology and evolution. Demographic research is central to quantifying population‐level processes and their underlying mechanisms and has provided critical contributions to a diversity of research fields. Examples include the spread of infectious diseases, eco‐evolutionary dynamics and rapid evolution, mechanisms underlying invasions and extinctions, and forest productivity. As the fates of individual organisms are influenced by, and subsequently underlie, many other patterns and processes, we suggest that connecting demographybeyondthe population level offers promising avenues of innovation in ecology and evolution.Under the premise that population‐level processes are an ideal common currency within ecology and evolution, we organized the British Ecological Society Symposium,Demography Beyond the Population. This event attracted international researchers who are applying demographic theory and approaches to a broad range of questions. This special feature builds off of the symposium and illustrates the ability of demography to connect across diverse research areas in ecology and evolution, including functional traits, transient dynamics, quantitative genetics, environmental drivers and feedbacks, land management and other topics. In addition to highlighting the contributed manuscripts, this editorial provides a brief background on the development of the discipline and suggests how demographic tools may be used in novel ways to study more thanjustpopulations.Synthesis. This special feature integrates novel lines of research in the vast field of demography that directly interact with other ecological and evolutionary disciplines. The cross‐disciplinary potential of demography is further emphasized by the fact that its 20 manuscripts are spread across all six journals of the British Ecological Society. Together, these articles highlight that there is much to be gained by linking demography to other disciplines and scales in ecology and evolution.

Local differences in parasitism and competition shape defensive investment in a polymorphic eusocial bee.

Many colonial animals rely for their defense on a soldier caste. Adaptive colony demography theory predicts that colonies should flexibly adjust the investment in different worker castes depending on the colony needs. For example, colonies should invest more in defensive workers (e.g., soldiers) in dangerous environments. However, evidence for this prediction has been mixed. We combined descriptive and experimental approaches to examine whether defensive investment and worker size are adjusted to local ecology in the only known bee with polymorphic workers, Tetragonisca angustula. Colonies of this species are defended by a morphologically specialized soldier caste. Our study included three populations that differed in the density of food competition and the occurrence of a parasitic robber bee. We found that colonies coexisting with robber bees had on average 43% more soldiers defending the nest entrance, while colonies facing stronger foraging competition had soldiers that were -6-7% smaller. We then experimentally relocated colonies to areas with different levels of competition. When released from intense food competition, body sizes of guards and foragers increased. After introducing chemical robber bee cues at nest entrances, we found both a short-term and a long-term up-regulation of the number of soldiers defending the colony. Active soldier numbers remained high after the experiment for a duration equivalent to 2-3 worker life spans. How information about past parasite threat is stored in the colony is currently unknown. In summary, T. angustula adjusts both the number and the body size of active soldiers to local ecological conditions. Competitor density also affects forager (or minor) size, an important colony trait with potential community ecological consequences. Our study supports adaptive colony demography theory in a eusocial bee and highlights the importance of colony threats and competition as selective forces shaping colony phenotype.

Secular Stagnation: Fear of a Non-Reproductive Future

In the wake of the global financial crisis, a number of high profile economists have sought to revive Alvin Hansen’s Depression-era theory of “secular stagnation” to account for the stagnant tendencies in the American economy, citing Japan as a cautionary tale of combined demographic and economic decline. Following Hansen, it is argued that the long-term stagnation of the world economy can be attributed to a failure of the reproductive will, made manifest in declining birth rates and ageing populations. Although the causal connections between population and price trends are controversial even among mainstream demographers and economists, such arguments date back to the origins of political economy and appear to magically resurface with each major episode of crisis. If the crisis is inflationary, it tends to be ascribed to overpopulation; if it is deflationary, we find a corresponding concern with slowing birth rates. This article seeks to understand the durability of the demographic theory of crisis by examining the punitive and restorative work it performs in periods of capitalist restructuring.

The Conjoint Influence of Top and Middle Management Characteristics on Management Innovation

Management innovation entails the introduction of new-to-the-firm changes in management structures, processes, and practices intended to improve organizational functioning. We draw on relational demography theory to elucidate how behavioral dispositions stemming from top management and middle management similarity in professional characteristics (functional background and educational level) and biodemographic characteristics (age and gender) may facilitate management innovation. We argue that while a throughput functional orientation of top management can be expected to stimulate management innovation, greater similarity between top and middle management will strengthen the association between top management throughput orientation and management innovation by (1) engendering consistency in behavioral expectations between the managerial echelons and (2) motivating middle management to engage in extrarole behaviors. We test our theory on a sample of more than 8,000 top and middle managers in a cross-section of 33 organizations from 2000 to 2008 and adopt a novel content analysis-based measure of management innovation. We find compelling support for the moderating influence of professional similarity between top and middle management but uncover more complex patterns for cross-echelon similarity in biodemographic characteristics. We discuss implications for understanding the role of managers in management innovation, joint consideration of top and middle management characteristics in organizational change processes, the interplay between various types of innovation, and the measurement of management innovation. Promising future research directions are suggested.