Demographic Policy Research Articles

Current and future trends in heat-related mortality in the MENA region: a health impact assessment with bias-adjusted statistically downscaled CMIP6 (SSP-based) data and Bayesian inference

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the regions that is most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, yet the potential public health impacts have been underexplored compared to other regions. We aimed to examine one aspect of these impacts, heat-related mortality, by quantifying the current and future burden in the MENA region and identifying the most vulnerable countries. We did a health impact assessment using an ensemble of bias-adjusted statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2·6 [consistent with a 2°C global warming scenario], SSP2-4·5 [medium pathway scenario], SSP3-7·0 [pessimistic scenario], and SSP5-8·5 [high emissions scenario]) and Bayesian inference methods. Assessments were based on apparent temperature-mortality relationships specific to each climate subregion of MENA based on Koppen-Geiger climate type classification, and unique thresholds were characterised for each 50 km grid cell in the region. Future annual heat-related mortality was estimated for the period 2021-2100. Estimates were also presented with population held constant to quantify the contribution of projected demographic changes to the future heat-mortality burden. The average annual heat-related death rate across all MENA countries is currently 2·1 per 100 000 people. Under the two high emissions scenarios (SSP3-7·0 and SSP5-8·5), most of the MENA region will have experienced substantial warming by the 2060s. Annual heat-related deaths of 123·4 per 100 000 people are projected for MENA by 2100 under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8·5), although this rate would be reduced by more than 80% (to 20·3 heat-related deaths per 100 000 people per year) if global warming could be limited to 2°C (ie, under the SSP1-2·6 scenario). Large increases are also expected by 2100 under the SSP3-7·0 scenario (89·8 heat-related deaths per 100 000 people per year) due to the high population growth projected under this pathway. Projections in MENA are far higher than previously observed in other regions, with Iran expected to be the most vulnerable country. Stronger climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are needed to avoid these heat-related mortality impacts. Since much of this increase will be driven by population changes, demographic policies and healthy ageing will also be key to successful adaptation. National Institute for Health Research, EU Horizon 2020.

Regulatory and legal aspects of social support for multiple-child families: regional experience

The priority direction of the state family and demographic policy is the social support of multiple-child families. This article clarifies the essence and specifies the concept of social support in accordance with regulatory documents. The distinctive features of support as a technology of social work are determined. The analysis of the regulatory framework at the federal and regional levels in the organization of social support for multiple-child families is carried out. The features of the practical implementation of the regulatory framework in a number of regions of Russia are formulated. The approved form of the passport of social support and intradepartmental interaction on social support is presented on the example of the Ulyanovsk Region. The algorithm of providing social support to multiple-child families in the conditions of a general education organization is described. The mechanism of implementation of the technology of social support in modern conditions of socio-economic crisis is substantiated.

The labor potential of rural areas of Kazakhstan in the context of digitalization of the economy

The goal is to reveal main directions for increasing the efficiency of labor potential of rural areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of digitalization of the economy, to identify criteria and analyze factors of its growth. Methods – comparative analysis and scientific abstraction, allowing to determine the importance of rural labor resources in production of public goods and increasing reproduction. Results – there is no general indicator that determines the activity of the personnel and conditions for its formation. According to the authors, the prerequisites for this are ecological-geographical, socio-economic, technological development and digital transformation. The priority areas of demographic policy and mechanisms for increasing employment and profitability of rural workers are given. The structure of the agricultural labor market is considered: the level of innovative activity of enterprises in the context of regions; the number of farmers users of the Internet system in different countries. Conclusions – information and communication systems in the economy have reduced the gap in the quality of education between rural and urban schools by more than 30%, and digital entrepreneurship also involves the creation of new enterprises characterized by: the use of digital technologies to improve business operations, the invention of digital business models, interacting with customers and stakeholders through digital platforms. Taking into account the real situation, it is necessary to find opportunities for optimizing the activities of the able-bodied part of the population of the Kazakhstani village, while it is important to analyze the economic and technological needs of economic entities in agricultural sector. Also, the authors focus on some practical problems that the researcher and manager face when assessing the labor potential of rural areas.

Parental leave in the system of socio-economic processes: a theoretical review

Parental leave is one of the most important components in the structure of family policy in most developed countries. In foreign practice, three types of leaves are available: maternity leave, paternity leave and parental leave. The researchers note that development of the leave policy has a favorable economic, social and demographic effect. For this reason, the issue of leaves is becoming more and more popular every year and attracts attention of a wide range of scientists. Nevertheless, in the domestic scientific literature, the phenomenon of parental leave remains practically unexplored. This article is devoted to the study of the impact of parental leave on other socioeconomic processes — employment, gender equality and fertility — and related areas of government policy. Exploring this relationship, the author notes positive impact of paternity leave and paternity quotas on the distribution of responsibilities between men and women in the professional and family spheres of life. The positive economic effects from the use of parental leave as one of the tools to protect workers in the labor market are described. These effects consist mainly in increasing the employment rate of women and reducing the wage gap between men and women. In addition, the impact of parental leave on the birth rate is considered—on the one hand, the use of paternity leave stimulates parents for subsequent childbearing, on the other hand, opportunity costs increase, which negatively affect the reproductive attitudes of mothers. The author draws a conclusion about the relationship between parental leave policy and other areas of state policy — employment policy, gender equality policy and demographic policy. In the author's opinion, the discovered relationship indicates the importance of the issue of parental leave and the need to study it in Russia.

Factors affecting the decision about having a child and the number of children by women in Russia

Birth rate has a special place among the demographic factors determining the growth of population and the pace of the country's economic development. Solution to the problem of proper fertility in Russia is in building a powerful state demographic policy based on strengthening the key determinants of the reproductive process. The work is devoted to identifying the determinants of making a decision about the birth of a child in Russian families, understanding of which will allow substantiating the ways to improve the effectiveness of the demographic policy to stimulate the birth rate. To study fertility factors, two econometric models were built: a logistic regression for dependent variable of having a child during the year and an ordinal logistic regression for the number of children. The models took into account the problem of endogeneity — there was used instrumental variables method. The main data source was the RLMS HSE statistical database. The primary analysis of the data showed that in Russia the transition to European family type continues: there is an increase in the age at which women have children, and extramarital unions are spreading. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found out that the probability of having a child during the year is influenced primarily by personal and socio-economic factors, as well as working conditions. The number of children a woman has is affected by all types of factors, in particular— socio-economic factors and working conditions. Families that are not sure of their future financial stability, including their living conditions, are less likely to have a large number of children. The paper gives recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of the state demographic policy in Russia.

Do modern Russian women consider themselves lonely?

The architectonics of the authors' research reflects the paradoxes of public consciousness concerning the perception of the phenomenon of social loneliness through the prism of the completeness of family and the presence of children. The prerogative of material prosperity in the name of the prospects for future family well-being in the conditions of the modern labor market in some cases results in social loneliness, when the compensating result of a woman's life cycle is professional solvency in the absence of family and children. Social loneliness begins to lose its negative context in the perception of the individual himself, which is expressed in an increase in the proportion of Russians aged30 to 45years who have never been married. The authors reveal women's reflections on the phenomenon of social loneliness in the context of existing family constructs, as well as aspects of the stigmatization of single mothers and children growing up without a father. Objectively and from the standpoint of the interests of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation, postponing important demographic events to later ages increases the risks of social loneliness, expressed in lower chances of starting a family and having children. Subjectively, the segment of people who, according to various indicators can be considered lonely, is an established demographic and social reality and does not feel lonely. The study is aimed at clarifying the peculiarities of women's perception of social loneliness, their identification of their role in society, the significance of their main social positions for them, their wish to be involved in one or another social group. The results of the study are presented on the basis of a sociological survey conducted in the all-Russian format. The sample is characterized as continuous, random, at the last stage nested (one cluster of the sample is selected — women, N=1075). The initial processing of the empirical data provided an opportunity to draw a number of conclusions regarding the value orientations of women and their formation of social behavior in the context of building a professional, family and marital life trajectory. The research focus of presenting the results is on finding ways to minimize social loneliness in public perceptions.

The right of an employee to working conditions correspond to safety and hygiene requirements: a demographic aspect

The current demographic situation in the Russian Federation is to a certain extent determined by socio-economic processes, and therefore priority in demographic policy should be given to reducing the mortality rate of the working-age population, including through the creation of safe working conditions. However, according to the author the gaps and shortcomings in the legal regulation of labor protection, not a solution to problematic tasks.

ANALYZING NATURAL AND MIGRATION FACTORS: UNDERSTANDING THE STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF ALTAI REGION'S POPULATION

The demographic decline in Russia began after the collapse of the USSR and was exacerbated by a spiritual crisis. To address these problems, the Conception of the Demographic Policy was adopted for the period up to 2025. This study examines the main stages of the policy and assesses its results in the country as a whole and in the Altai region in particular. The study shows that the decline in population size in the region is primarily due to rural areas, with changes in gender proportions and an increase in the natural population loss coefficient, which is growing at a faster pace among the rural population. The study also assesses the impact of migration on demographic indicators and finds that financial factors are not the only reason for the current situation. To address these demographic challenges, concrete action must be taken at the municipal level, with socio-economic measures incorporated into the policy. Furthermore, it is important to educate the younger generation in patriarchal traditions to ensure long-term solutions.

Semen reproductive potential

Reproductive behavior is a complex related to a system of actions and attitudes taken by a man and a woman regarding the process of conception, bearing and giving birth to children, including planning practices, as well as methods of control. Currently, there is a downward trend in the birth rate, with the percentage of infertile couples being increased, despite the development of reproductive medicine and demographic policy. National programs are aimed at increasing the spread of family planning methods and reducing the number of child marriages. In addition to deep behavioral changes predetermined by the historical, social, economic, cultural and moral situation of an individual and society as a whole, the changes in the birth rate are based on adaptive mechanisms during sexual selection. In particular, a substantial research has focused on identifying additional biomarkers of male fertility in seminal plasma. There have been proven to exist differences in their absolute and relative levels between fertile men and men classified as infertile, based on sperm parameters of the World Health Organization. Studies dating back to the 1920s suggested a multifaceted role for seminal fluid in the reproductive process. It has been established that the paternal biological contribution to pregnancy and related ability to influence the reproductive outcome goes beyond simple provision of male gametes at conception. A new paradigm is emerging detailing an importance of communication between father and mother during gestation as it is associated with maternal tolerance to fetal antigens and, ultimately, pregnancy success.

Assessment of the growing demographic threats to economic security in the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District

The article is devoted to the study and assessment of demographic threats to the economic security of the regions of the North Caucasian Federal District. A brief overview of periodical publications covering pressing demographic challenges and their impact on economic security is provided. Methods of economic analysis were used as follows: generalization, absolute and relative value method, comparison, index and tabular methods, etc. To assess the threats, the authors used data collected by the Federal State Statistics Service, such as birth and death data, the rate of natural increase (decrease), and the rate of migration increase. The data on the population before and after the sharp aggravation of demographic problems caused by the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were compared. An initial assessment of demographic processes that had jeopardized the economic security of the regions was made. Based on the analysis of the statistical data showing a change in the number of births and deaths in years 2019–2021, the authors point out a certain decrease in the birth rate and a dramatic increase in mortality, which caused a drop in the rate of natural increase up to negative values, in the federal district under study as a result of the pandemic. The decline in the intensity of migration flows was identified. The interdependence of the territory’s population decline trend and the able-bodied population decline trend was noted. A set of conclusions on the top demographic policy priorities of the state in the current realities were made, and the need to develop measures aimed at ensuring economic security in the demographic sphere was stressed.

Geopolitical and geostrategic situation of Lithuania in the context of the foreign policy of the Russian Federation - with an outlook to 2019

ObjectivesThis paper discusses the problems faced by Lithuania in its current geopolitical and geostrategic situation, as a post-Soviet state that has fairly recently joined the structures of the European Union and NATO. As one of the Baltic States with a relatively small territory and without significant natural resources, it must rely on cooperation with other states and the trade exchange, mainly with the Russian Federation. Lithuania is a small state, which - seemingly - would be capable of pursuing only regional politics, not geopolitics in the strategic sense.Methodsanalysys, inference, reductive reasoning, SWOT analysisResultsThe conducted analysis and rational assessment of Lithuania's geopolitical and geostrategic problems shows that it is increasingly difficult to predict the direction in which the broadly defined policy and strategy of the country will develop in the 21st century and in the far future.ConclusionsBased on the consideration presented in this paper, it can be concluded that Lithuania, as a member of the European Union and NATO, does not have its own geopolitics and geostrategy, as it is still dependent on the policy of the Russian Federation. This dependence is, to a large extent, due to its geographical location in the Baltic region, through which important communication and transport routes from the Russian Federation to Central and Western Europe run. In addition, almost 6 per cent of Lithuania's population are Russians, in relation to whom the Russian government pursues its own demographic policy by indoctrinating them in Russian schools and universities.

Mapping Shifts in Russian and European Welfare Polities: Explaining Policy Responses to Shared New Social Risks

Since 2000, literature on West (EU15) and East-Central European (EU8) welfare states has focused on a set of ‘new social risks’ including insecure employment and income, population ageing, unsustainable social security systems, and large-scale international immigration. Our State-of-the-Art (SOTA) article brings Russia into the dialogue on ‘new social risks’. We show that broadly similar structural changes in industrial economies, labour markets and demographic patterns ended the post-World-War-Two (WWII) ‘Golden Age’ of welfare expansion in both the EU15 and communist states. Shared new social risks rose to the top of policy agendas. Governments responded mainly, though not exclusively, with liberalising, privatising and exclusionary policies. The SOTA compares their policy responses, specifically pension system reforms, demographic (pro-natalist and family) policies, and integration of immigrants. We find both convergence and divergence based on states’ differing welfare legacies. The conclusion considers path-departing ‘emergency Keynesian’ responses to the COVID-19 crisis, and renewed attention to Beveridge welfare models.

THE CURRENT STATE OF GEODEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE ODESA REGION ON THE BASIS OF THE NEW ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEM

Problem Statement and Purpose. The article examines the current state of geodemographic processes in the Odesa region on the basis of the new administrative system. To achieve this goal, studies were conducted, as a result of which it was established that the main factor affecting geodemographic processes in the region is depopulation, which is partially compensated by positive migration. This indicates the need to revise the demographic policy in the region as part of the decentralization reform. The purpose of this article is to conduct and analyze the geodemographic process (GDP) in the Odesa region in modern conditions of transformation of social relations and administrative reform. Within the scope of achieving the goal, the following tasks were completed: an analysis of the administrative-territorial system in the Odesa region was carried out, particularly in the focus of GDP changes, to analyze the dynamics of demographic indicators, the rate of birth, death rate, natural increase/decrease of the population, migration increase. Data & Methods. When writing the article, traditional general scientific methods were used, which were combined with special methods of population demography and geography research. Statistical materials of the demographic situation at the national and regional levels were used for data analysis, and statistical and specific demographic methods were used for their subject processing. Excel software was used for data processing for the obtained results. When writing the work, data from official statistics were used. Results. In order to improve the geodemographic situation in Odesa, the necessary regional programs should be adopted, which should be aimed at increasing the birth rate, creating new jobs, improving the population’s life and improving its quality, reducing mortality rates, supporting young families, etc. Implementation requires a systematic approach and balanced decisions of regional and executive authorities.

The Legal Status of a Pregnant Woman: An Intersectoral Aspect

The paper is devoted to the analysis of family and demographic policy in the context of determining the legal status of a pregnant woman under the Russian legislation, as well as the impact of a set of social support measures on the attractiveness of having many children in family planning. The author states that the absence of an established form of a woman’s pregnancy certificate is a huge disadvantage, since the issuance of a document is a legal fact with which the law connects the emergence, modification and termination of legal relations, the basis when a woman acquires a special social and legal status of a subject with a privileged position, reflected in various branches of Russian legislation. The paper analyzes judicial practice regarding the filing of claims by men for compensation for moral damage in connection with the termination of pregnancy by women without reaching a general agreement on the issue of family planning. In the transport sector, there is no uniform practice of providing transportation services to pregnant women by airlines. Regarding the legislation on sports, the author draws attention to the fact that the hormone released in the pregnant woman’s body is deemed doping. However, restrictions on access to competitions are discrimination, so it is not uncommon for a pregnant woman to receive an Olympic gold medal being heavily pregnant. The state of pregnancy is also of legal importance for criminal legislation, since a significant number of criminal law norms take into account the special status of a pregnant woman as a characteristic of the defendant’s personality, as well as as a circumstance that gives great public danger when the victim is the expectant mother. The granting of a special privileged status to a pregnant woman is also subject to consideration in housing legislation: the expectant mother should have the right to additional state support, including in terms of meeting housing needs. The author summarizes that for the Russian legislator, a pregnant woman is unconditionally a value whose rights and interests are protected as much as possible. The principle of state support for motherhood is reflected in the entire system of Russian legislation.

Development of demographic processes in the Fergana region of Uzbekistan: yesterday, today, tomorrow


 
 
 In the world, the living conditions and health of the population have a certain impact on demographic processes. High population growth rates cause demographic problems. As a positive solution to these problems, a number of international organizations, including the United Nations Population Fund, have set the main task of «improving the lifestyle of the population and ensuring sustainable development» (https://www.unfpa.org/world-population-trends). These tasks include studies aimed at identifying and evaluating the features of the development of demographic processes in densely populated areas, the factors influencing them, and developing a forecast. In the world, priority is given to research in this direction, especially to determine the territorial features of population regeneration, improve public health and life expectancy, study the impact of economic and social development of regions on demographic processes. It is also important to determine the unique geodemographic situation due to the influence of natural and economic, socio-geographical and other factors on the population of the regions, factors influencing the development of demographic processes and their territorial characteristics, to improve the scientific basis of regional demographic policy and directions of development, and develop special programs . This article highlights the territorial features of the development of demographic process- es in the regions of the Fergana Valley in 1991-2020, developed forecast parameters up to 2040, and presented important conclusions.
 
 

Bioethical Problems of China’s Demographic Policy: Background and Present

The article is devoted to the study of bioethical problems of China’s demographic policy. One of the main instruments of birth control in the country for 30 years was artificial termination of pregnancy – abortion. Because of this, contradiction between the political course of the state and the traditional, rooted in society, moral principles and values arises. Population policy has become a harsh method of restricting the reproductive rights and freedom of private life of the Chinese population. The current situation determines relevance and necessity of studying China’s demographic policy from the point of view of bioethics. Thus, the article discusses background for approval of the policy “One family – one child”; the implications of this policy, such as the bioethical issues of medical termination of pregnancy and selective abortion in China; transformation of the traditional institution of the family; moral and ethical status of the second child; the problem of the prohibition of surrogate motherhood; gender imbalance; increase in illegal services in the field of medical and reproductive technologies. Bioethical aspects of modern Chinese demography; socio-cultural changes in Chinese society due to a long period of birth control policies are analyzed. The reasons for the low efficiency of modern state measures to stimulate childbearing are considered.

Старение населения и его демографические последствия

Aging is a destructive physiological process that increases with age and results in the decrease in the body's adaptive capacity. Aging is irreversible, however, it can be prolonged for many decades though maintaining active longevity. The study was aimed to assess ageing in terms of demography and analyze demographic policy in the Voronezh region. The study involved assessment of the major demographic parameters of the population, such as mortality, birth rate, population, and life expectancy. The data were provided by the territorial agency of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Voronezh region (Voronezhstat). It has been found that in recent years (2015–2021) birth rate has decreased by 1.4 times, life expectancy has decreased by 4.1 years, and mortality has increased by 1.5 times (2019–2021). Today, the population of elderly people is growing. This results in the situation when mortality exceeds birth rate. Population aging observed in the Voronezh region is rapid. To improve the major parameters, the demographic policy outlined in the document “On Approval of the Concept of Demographic Policy in the Voronezh Region for the Period up to 2025” has been implemented that is focused on improving both borth rate and the quality of life of the population. The project has not yet brought any desirable result, however, activities in this field contribute to improvement of major demographic indicators.

Attitude to the family of urban and rural residents

Contradictory phenomena in family and marriage relations, in relation to family and children in modern society, have, among other things, a territorial and settlement aspect. The overwhelming majority of respondents (residents of different territorial settlement structures) recognize the family as hope and support in life. Residents of villages and small towns show higher ratings of the family (its significance, value); residents of the megalopolis show noticeably less high ratings of the family. The differences in the assessments of the family among different social groups suggest the need to search for special approaches in socio-economic, socio-cultural, and demographic policy in relation to the development of different territorial settlement structures. The study of people's needs in the family variant of living and the search for options for social planning and management, taking into account the needs of family collectives, can be considered a promising area of scientific research and practical municipal and regional management.

Типология трансформации возрастной структуры населения регионов России

Assessment of changes in the age structure in Russia is relevant due to the increasing ageing of the population and implementation of demographic policy measures. The study aims to develop a typology of the transformation of the age structure in Russian regions. It is hypothesised that differences in the speed and direction of transformation cause the formation of various types and subtypes of age structure. Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service were analysed: “Demographic Yearbook of Russia”; “Supplement to the Demographic Yearbook of Russia”; statistical bulletins “Population of the Russian Federation by sex and age”. As a result, Russian regions were grouped based on 6 types and 18 subtypes of the transformation of the age structure. Calculation of the ageing index revealed the following 6 types of age structure: very young, young, on the eve of old age, moderately old, old, and very old. The most common are regions with moderately old age structure (38.1 %), followed by regions with old age structure (25 %) and very old age structure (19 %). Regions classified as “on the eve of old age”, “young” and “very young” together account for no more than 18 %. The ageing dynamics index was calculated to identify 18 subtypes of the transformation of the age structure. The ageing trend is observed in 80 Russian regions: slow ageing of the population is recorded in 52 constituent entities, and increased ageing — in 28 regions. The rejuvenation trend is characteristic only for 4 regions: the Republic of Tuva, Moscow oblast, Saint Petersburg and the Republic of Crimea. The obtained results can be used by public authorities to improve regional demographic policy.

Моделирование прогноза рождаемости на примере Республики Тыва

Numerous Russian demographers and statisticians have considered the issues of predicting fertility. In recent years, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has been publishing demographic forecasts, including data on the total fertility rate. However, despite extensive research, insufficient attention is paid to the analysis of the possibilities of using adaptive forecasting methods to assess the future dynamics of fertility. In this regard, the present study aims to build fertility prediction models for regions based on adaptive methods. The Republic of Tuva was chosen for testing as one of the unique constituent entities of the Russian Federation. During the implementation of the Concept of demographic policy, in particular maternity capital, the total fertility rate in Tuva did not fall below the replacement level fertility (2.14). Adaptive forecasting methods, such as ARIMA, Holt’s and Brown’s models, were utilised. In order to select the best prediction model, the study conducted a formal-logical analysis with a comparison of the main characteristics of the forecast accuracy and quality. The obtained results revealed promising development scenarios: moderately optimistic and regressive. The moderately optimistic scenario scientifically substantiated the feasibility of achieving fertility growth in the Republic of Tuva by 2025, focusing on the higher values of the average total fertility rate — 3.10 children per woman of reproductive age — that meets the goals of the demographic policy.