Demographic Phenomena Research Articles

Understanding the geographical process of the decline in manufacturing employment in China between 2000 and 2020

AbstractThe decline in manufacturing employment has emerged as a global demographic phenomenon in recent decades. However, previous research has primarily focused on the national level, resulting in limited geographical insights into the spatial variations of this decline at more minor scales. Our paper decodes the long‐term geographical process of manufacturing employment decline at the city level in China from an “industry‐population‐place” perspective, underscoring the pivotal role played by technological advancements. The results show that, during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020, the unbalanced changing pattern of China's manufacturing employment appeared to be a disruptive reallocation. The technology‐driven transition of manufacturing employment decline at the city level in China was identified. During 2000–2010, over 60% of cities experiencing a decline in manufacturing employment were technologically lost, while technological density improvement became the “main melody” in most cities experiencing such decline during 2010–2020. In a city experiencing such a decline, the greater the improvement in technological intensity, the stronger the positive effect of the decline on local economic development, particularly when accompanied by an expansion in the socioeconomic scale of the city. Furthermore, we observe changes in the characteristics of manufacturing employment on the west side of the Hu Line between 2010 and 2020, compared to previous years and even decades. These changes are characterised by a significant increase in manufacturing employment and the rapid technology‐driven transformation of cities that have experienced a decline in manufacturing employment.

New Data Sources for Demographic Research

AbstractWe are in the early stages of a new era of demographic research that offers exciting opportunities to quantify demographic phenomena at a scale and resolution once unimaginable. These scientific possibilities are opened up by new sources of data, such as the digital traces that arise from ubiquitous social computing, massive longitudinal datasets produced by the digitization of historical records, and information about previously inaccessible populations reached through innovations in classic modes of data collection. In this commentary, we describe five promising new sources of demographic data and their potential appeal. We identify cross‐cutting challenges shared by these new data sources and argue that realizing their full potential will demand both innovative methodological developments and continued investment in high‐quality, traditional surveys and censuses. Despite these considerable challenges, the future is bright: these new sources of data will lead demographers to develop new theories and revisit and sharpen old ones.

Ferulic Acid-Loaded Nanostructure Maintains Brain Levels of ACh, Glutamate, and GABA and Ameliorates Anxiety and Memory Impairments Induced by the D-Galactose Aging Process in Rats.

Population aging is a global reality driven by increased life expectancy. This demographic phenomenon is intrinsically linked to the epidemic of cognitive disorders such as dementia and Alzheimer's disease, posing challenges for elderly and their families. In this context, the search for new therapeutic strategies to prevent or minimize cognitive impairments becomes urgent, as these deficits are primarily associated with oxidative damage and increased neuroinflammation. Ferulic acid (FA), a natural and potent antioxidant compound, is proposed to be nanoencapsulated to target the central nervous system effectively with lower doses and an extended duration of action. Here, we evaluated the effects of the nanoencapsulated FA on d-galactose (d-Gal)- induced memory impairments. Male Wistar adult rats were treated with ferulic acid-loaded nanocapsules (FA-Nc) or non-encapsulated ferulic acid (D-FA) for 8weeks concurrently with d-Gal (150mg/kg s.c.) injection. As expected, our findings showed that d-Gal injection impaired memory processes and increased anxiety behavior, whereas FA-Nc treatment ameliorated these behavioral impairments associated with the aging process induced by d-Gal. At the molecular level, nanoencapsulated ferulic acid (FA-Nc) ameliorated the decrease in ACh and glutamate induced by d-galactose (d-Gal), and also increased GABA levels in the dorsal hippocampus, indicating its therapeutic superiority. Additional studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying our current promising outcomes. Nanoscience applied to pharmacology can reduce drug dosage, thereby minimizing adverse effects while enhancing therapeutic response, particularly in neurodegenerative diseases associated with aging. Therefore, the strategy of brain-targeted drug delivery through nanoencapsulation can be effective in mitigating aging-related factors that may lead to cognitive deficits.

HOUSING, COMMUNITY, SOCIAL AND SETTLEMENT POLICY FROM A RESIDENTIAL PERSPECTIVE – THE TRADITIONS AND PRESENT OF THE IGS ENVIRONMENT

The text outlines the reasoning of representatives of the Institute of Social Economy (IGS) in the area from early courts on housing issues by understanding, determining and defining municipal and social policy for those regarding housing and settlement policy considered from today's perspective. The issues of housing, municipal, social and settlement policy contained in the text are only a small spectrum of residence. It does not include the work of representatives of the IGS focusing on various aspects and cross-sections of these types of policies and works on demographic and economic phenomena and processes constituting a significant cause and at the same time the effect of shaping the housing and settlement situation deciding to inhabiting. The selection of publications cited in the text illustrates the most important substantive content in the adopted consideration.

Alzheimer's Disease Mortality Rate: Correlation with Socio-Economic and Environmental Factors.

The progressive increase in the number of deaths caused by Alzheimer's disease (AD) in Brazil and around the world between 2010 and 2020 raises questions in scientific society. At the same time, there is also an increase in life expectancy at birth (LEB). Thus, the aim of this study was, for the first time, to compare the increase in AD mortality rate (ADMR) in Brazilian regions over the years 2010 to 2020 with the increase in LEB, and investigate the possible correlation between these demographic transition phenomena and pesticide sales and exposure during this period. Data were extracted from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), from the Department of Informatics and Technology of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (DATASUS) and from the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA). There was a significant increase in life expectancy at birth and in ADMR over the years between 2010 and 2020 in all Brazilian regions, with the female population in the South region being the most affected. In conclusion, there is a strong positive correlation between the increase in ADMR and LEB; ADMR and Human Development Index (HDI) and ADMR and pesticide sales and exposure in Brazil over the years studied.

Analisis Perbedaan Tingkat Pemahaman Pajak dan Moral Pajak pada Generasi Milenial dan Generasi Z Indonesia

In 2045 Indonesia will have a demographic bonus phenomenon dominated by productive citizens, they are the millennial generation and generation Z, that will increase the number of taxpayers and increase tax revenue. So, our must know about the basic factors that influence voluntary tax compliance, namely tax understanding and tax morals owned by millenials and generation Z as future taxpayers. This study aims to examine the level of tax understanding and tax morale of millenials and generation Z, and to examine which generation has a better level of tax understanding and tax morale. This research is a comparative study using a quantitative approach. Data of this study are primary data. Data collection is by using closed-ended questionairres. The samples in this study were millennials and generation Z who had studied, read, heard or found out information about taxation. The sampling technique used purposive sampling technique. The hypothesis in this study was tested using a two-sample mean difference test (Independent sample t test) with IMB SPSS 25. The results showed that the millennial generation's tax understanding and tax morale were better than those of generation Z. Then for each generation, the millennial generation's tax understanding is better (higher) compared to their tax morale. Likewise with generation Z where generation Z's tax understanding is better (higher) than their tax morals.

The ‘demographic winter’ in Italy: Crisis factors, problematic issues and policy actions

Demographic issues are becoming key to the debate on the future of Europe, and of Italy in particular, which has the lowest birth rate in Europe but is among the top-ranked countries for demographic ageing. The general improvement of living conditions and the ageing of large cohorts cannot be supported by the economic activity of the younger generations, which calls into question the security of certain aspects of the social pact, such as the provision of pensions and health care. While encouraging an awareness among Italians of the trends and problems they will have to deal with, all national actors must cooperate to ensure the recovery of the birth rate, and to harness the economic benefits of incoming migrants and the experiences of older people. It is equally necessary to meet the needs of young people and enhance their social role. Only through such cooperation will it be possible to create a favourable climate for actions that will allow us to control and direct these demographic phenomena and not to suffer from them.

Selected factors of depopulation in South-Eastern Europe

The transformation processes in the political, social, and economic spheres taking place at the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) resulted in negative demographic phenomena. The aim of the study discussed in the article is to assess the geographical distribution of the demographic age, determine the indices of the dynamics of the ageing process of the SEE population and explain the relationship between the natural movement, fertility and the level of migration. The study is based on the data for the years 1990–2020 from a database of the World Bank. The study used the static method to determine the structure of the demographic old age and the dynamic method to determine in which phase of ageing the population was. Natural movement balances were examined using the least squares method. The study found that the population of the SEE residents in the tested period decreased by nearly 8 million (by 12% of the SEE total population from 1990). The proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population increased from 9.6% to 18.7%, and the ratio of residents aged 65 and over to those under 15 exceeded 100%. Further study of this phenomenon will help understand the ageing patterns of the SEE population, which may facilitate the application of specific policies designed to mitigate the negative effects of depopulation in the region.

Moving for Love: Interracial Marriage and Migration in Brazil

The link between marriage and migration is usually considered in terms of international migration. However, domestic migration provides another lens in which to view this connection. In Brazil, despite the large migration from the northeast to the southern regions in the twentieth century, the role of domestic migration in race-mixing has been unacknowledged. Since race in Brazil is highly regionalized, with black and brown Brazilians comprising most northern regions and white Brazilians being in the majority of the southern areas of the country, migration can open possibilities for interracial marriage that are less likely to occur for non-migrants. At the same time, as gender plays an important role in opportunities for intermarriage, the effects of migration likely vary according to intersections of race and gender. An examination of the data on marital unions from the 2009 Brazilian National Household Survey, which includes large numbers of earlier cohorts of mass migration, demonstrates the influence of migration on interracial marriage. This study finds that the effect of migration on the odds of being interracially married (in comparison with being in a same-race marital union) vary according to the race and gender of the spouse. This study is one of the first to tie together two demographic phenomena—migration and interracial marriage—that have not previously been examined in the Brazilian context. It also provides a new lens through which to understand interracial marriage in Brazil and has implications for future studies of family formation in Latin America and the Caribbean.

A Case Study on: Migration in Karnataka

Migration is a complex and dynamic process in which persons move from one place to another through time and space. It is a vast population movement often undertaken under hazardous conditions. People migrate for various reason, such as better employment opportunities, in search of land for growing crops, better living standards, desire to get rich quickly through mining and other prospects, search for a more religiously tolerant society and need for political freedom. Migration from rural-rural, rural-urban, and urban-urban is not merely movement of people, but it is a fundamental factor helping to explain the ever-changing space-content and space-relations in a country. It is a vital process bringing in changes in the distributional pattern of population and is basic to understand the spread of people at any given moment in time [Gurudev Singh Ghosal, 1961]. The movement could be either internal or international. Internal migration is an important demographic phenomenon, which reflects many socio-economic aspects of a region. In this study an attempt has been made to bring to focus some aspects of internal migration in Karnataka and to analyze some of the factors behind the internal movement of the population. Keywords Internal Migration, Distributional pattern, Hazardous

"Health Outcomes of Grandparents Caring for Double Orphans in South Africa": What Are the Determinants?

In the 21st century, grandparenthood is a significant phenomenon in the fields of demography, gerontology, and sociology. It is mainly explored in the context of ageing, as it is poised to become one of the most significant demographic phenomena and social issues in contemporary South Africa. Therefore, this study examined the determinants associated with grandparents who are parenting as caregivers and the health challenges they are exposed to as caregivers. The National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) Wave 5 dataset was utilised, and a total of 302,476 grandparents aged 25 years and older, who were reported to be primary caregivers of double orphans, were included in the analysis. Both bivariate and multivariate binary logistic regressions were performed to determine the predictors of the determinants of grandparents parenting as caregivers and their health challenges in South Africa. Estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used, and the threshold for statistical significance was established at ρ < 0.05. A majority of the male and female grandparent caregivers were aged 24-34 years, were Black Africans (69.8%), had secondary education (46.9%), reported health challenges (HC) (59.7%), with 26.4% reporting headaches in the last 30 days. Logistic regression revealed that grandparent caregivers aged 55-64 years were 8.9 times more likely to report health challenges compared to those aged 25-34 years. Non-Black African grandparent caregivers were found to be 0.61 times less likely to report health challenges, compared to Black African grandparent caregivers. Those with perceived poor health status were 3.3 times more likely to report health challenges, compared to those with excellent perceived health status. Therefore, there is an urgent need to redesign health interventions to address these health burdens among grandparent caregivers and to take cognisance of providing economic and social support for these vulnerable populations.

Od-uczyć się tęsknoty za minionym - rozważania o współczesnej starości

&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; This article is devoted to the reflections on the specific nature of old age derived from the author’s inspirations with the categories found in the works by Zygmunt Bauman, Tadeusz Sławek and Krzysztof Maliszewski. Those are reflections on the phenomenon of ageing which is anchored in the post-modern culture. The author suggests that old age should be perceived not only as a social and demographic phenomenon occurring on the socio-cultural, economic, political or historical ground, but also as personal experience, an individual project, time in life experienced as a period without coercion but with the right to live one’s own way, in one’s own rhythm and on one’s own.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D;

Estimating extinction time using radiocarbon dates

The extinction of a species is a key demographic event often signalling major climatic, ecological and/or evolutionary shifts that can be investigated using the fossil record. In that context, radiocarbon (14C) dating has become a popular tool to time and test for scenarios of extinction that can inform on how species respond to past and future ecosystem changes. We develop CRIWM, a method for estimating extinction (and arrival) time from time series of 14C dates while accounting for probability density functions (PDF) deriving from 14C calibration. The sister method GRIWM assumes normal chronometric errors and is inappropriate for 14C chronologies as PDFs are often non-Gaussian and multi-modal. Compared to GRIWM, CRIWM reduces by 4-fold the gap between true and estimated extinction times and the width of the confidence intervals, and is less sensitive to sample size, dating errors and the temporal distribution of specimens in a species’ fossil record. We build the R package Rextinct with three user-friendly functions for computing CRIWM and GRIWM, and the PDF moments, modes and intercepts of 14C calibrations. CRIWM and GRIWM accept time series comprising only 14C dates or observations (fossils, sightings) dated by multiple chronometric methods, and calibration curves for fossils sampled in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and marine environments. For both methods, we implement two different estimators of extinction time whether they are reliant on a p-value (original conceptualization) or not (novel). CRIWM and Rextinct are robust tools to time extinction and arrival events using 14C chronologies spanning the entire Holocene to 50,000 calendar years Before Present, and can be used to investigate demographic phenomena queried through the fossil record such as migrations, domestications and extirpations.

Functional data analysis approach in population studies: an application to the gender gap in life expectancy

This work analyses the contribution of ages and causes of death to gender gap in life expectancy in 20 European and non-European countries between 1959 and 2015, using Functional Data Analysis. Data were retrieved from the WHO Mortality Database and from the Human Mortality Database. We propose a Functional Principal Component Analysis of the age profiles of cause-specific contributions, to identify the main components of the distribution of the age-specific contributions according to causes of death, and to summarize them with few components. Our findings show that the narrowing gender gap in life expectancy was mainly driven by decreasing differences in cardiovascular diseases. Additionally, the study reveals that the age cause contributions act almost entirely on only two dimensions: level (extent of the cause-specific contribution to the overall mortality gender gap) and age pattern (location of the curves across ages). Notably, in the last period, it is not the "quantum" of the cause-specific contributions that matters, but the "timing", i.e. location across the age spectrum. Moreover, our results show that in the most recent period the gender gap in life expectancy is affected by composition of the causes of death more than it was in previous periods. We emphasise that Functional Data Analysis could prove useful to deepen our understanding of complex demographic phenomena.

Age-specific sex ratios: Examining rural–urban variation within low- and middle-income countries

The balance of men and women in society, captured by sex ratios, determines key social and demographic phenomena. Previous research has explored sex ratios mainly at birth and up to age five at national level, whereas we address rural–urban gaps in sex ratios for all ages. Our measures are based on the United Nations data on rural and urban populations by age and sex for 112 low- and middle-income countries in 2015. We show that rural sex ratios are higher than urban sex ratios among children and older people, whereas at working ages, urban areas are dominated by males. Our analysis suggests that the urban transition itself is not driving the gap in rural–urban sex ratios. Rather, internal migration seems to be key in shaping rural–urban sex ratio divergence in sub-Saharan Africa, while both internal migration and mortality differentials appear to be the predominant mechanisms driving sex ratio gaps in Latin America.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND FOOD SECURITY ON DEMOGRAPHIC FERTILITY IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN THROUGH GEOSPATIAL STRUCTURAL MODELLING (GSSM)

: Punjab is not only the most fertile province of Pakistan but also the most fertile demographically with 3.4 total fertility rate. The fertility rate is an important demographic phenomenon that has significant implications for sustainable development, particularly in agricultural regions such as Punjab, Pakistan. In recent years, scholars and policymakers have increasingly focused on the link between fertility rate and soil fertility. As soil fertility is an important determinant of agricultural productivity and food security. This research article has explored the relationship and impact of the main climatic factors like maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and Gross Primary Productivity on total fertility rate of districts of Punjab, for the year 2021. Geospatial Structural modeling (GSSM) has been designed to estimate the influence of climatic factors directly on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through gross primary productivity and child mortality rate on total fertility rate of districts of Punjab. All the said geospatial primary and secondary datasets are analyzed in ArcGIS environment and resultant map are generated. The results shows that there is the direct and significant impact of gross primary productivity and child mortality rate on the total fertility rate. While there is indirect impact of mean annual precipitation, mean annual maximum and minimum temperature on the total fertility rate. Hence, there is negative direct impact of said factors on total fertility rate of the districts of the Punjab

INTENTION TO INVEST IN SHARIA CAPITAL MARKET USING THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOR (TPB)

As a country with a majority Muslim population and a beneficiary of the demographic bonus phenomenon, Indonesia certainly offers good opportunities for capital market growth. Investment interest is a guideline of assets allocated to investment options for future profits. The purpose of this study is to measure and analyze investments attitudes, subjective norms, perceptions of behavioral control over investment interest with financial literacy as a moderating variable. This research is a type of quantitative research. The population in this study are people who have savings to invest. The method of determining the sample is target sampling. The sample for this study consisted of his 280 respondents. The data in this study are based on primary data. This study uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) analysis tool. The results of this study show that investment attitudes have a direct and significant effect on investment returns, while subjective norms have a direct and significant effect on investment returns. Perceived behavioral control has a direct and significant impact on investment returns. Financial literacy mitigates the impact of subjective norms and perceived behavioral controls on investment returns in a positive and important way. On the other hand, financial literacy does not soften investment attitudes toward investees.Keywords: Theory of Planned Behavior, Financial Literacy , Islamic Investment Interest

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy.

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

Youth Bulge as a Peacebuilding Opportunity for Africa: The Case of Zimbabwe’s Youth Empowerment Programmes

This study seeks to investigate the impact of youth empowerment programmes on the peace process in Zimbabwe. Demographers have revealed that the youth population in Sub-Saharan Africa is growing to become what is termed the youth bulge. This demographic phenomenon combined with elusive formal wage employment in many African countries has often resulted in youth becoming a de-stabilising force. As a solution to youth unemployment and vulnerability, Zimbabwe adopted youth development and empowerment programmes. The efforts have, however, suffered from a myriad of challenges including lack of political will, political interference and marginalisation of the youth in decision making. This is an empirical mixed-methods study that relied on primary and secondary data that was gathered through quantitative and qualitative means. The study presents comprehensive perspectives on how youth empowerment can be a mitigating measure against youth propensity to violence. The study argues that without proper and genuine youth development and empowerment, peace will continue to be elusive in Zimbabwe and the rest of Africa.

Examine the association between self-employment and return migrants in Ethiopia: evidence from Gondar city youth returnees

PurposeThis study attempted to contribute to the existing literature on return migration by framing the discussion within the association between self-employment and returning migrants in the context of Ethiopia particularly on Gondar city youth returnees.Design/methodology/approachThe study has used a combination of cross-sectional and descriptive research design with a quantitative approach. Quantitative data from 195 youth returnees using a survey questionnaire were employed to address the study objectives. A Census sampling strategy was employed to select study participants. To test the study hypothesizes, a χ2 test was implemented to show the association between independent and dependent variables.FindingsThe findings of this study showed that there is no association between self-employment and return migrants. More specifically, the study results revealed that sectoral and occupational experience gained from abroad do not help return migrants for new business formation.Research limitations/implicationsThis study which was focused only on self-employed return migrants where comes from Saudi Arabia, likely does not represent the whole return migrants from abroad. In addition, this study does not include all independent variables that influence the self-employment of return migrants. It only considers occupational and sectoral experience. To understand comprehensively, future research will do by considering all indicators of self-employment of return migrants and also make a comparative analysis between urban and rural return migrants' possibility to become self-employed.Practical implicationsReturn migration is one of the demographic phenomena in the world which needs attention from government and non-government organizations. Taking into account this, the paper will serve as an input for policymakers and local officials to consider self-employment carefully to support returnees' sustainable entrepreneurial performance and economic growth. It will also help officials to understand some of the challenges that self-employed returnees have been faced including the provision of working area, formal credit, and pieces of training consistent with the experience brought from abroad and tax incentives.Originality/valueStudies on youth return migration in sub-Saharan Africa countries are limited and this study will contribute to the return migration literature with an attempt to examine the association between self-employment and return migration in the context of Ethiopia. Accordingly, it examines the relationship between self-employment among youth return migrants by taking sectoral and occupational experience as major indicators.