THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS AND FOOD SECURITY ON DEMOGRAPHIC FERTILITY IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN THROUGH GEOSPATIAL STRUCTURAL MODELLING (GSSM)

Abstract

: Punjab is not only the most fertile province of Pakistan but also the most fertile demographically with 3.4 total fertility rate. The fertility rate is an important demographic phenomenon that has significant implications for sustainable development, particularly in agricultural regions such as Punjab, Pakistan. In recent years, scholars and policymakers have increasingly focused on the link between fertility rate and soil fertility. As soil fertility is an important determinant of agricultural productivity and food security. This research article has explored the relationship and impact of the main climatic factors like maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and Gross Primary Productivity on total fertility rate of districts of Punjab, for the year 2021. Geospatial Structural modeling (GSSM) has been designed to estimate the influence of climatic factors directly on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through gross primary productivity and child mortality rate on total fertility rate of districts of Punjab. All the said geospatial primary and secondary datasets are analyzed in ArcGIS environment and resultant map are generated. The results shows that there is the direct and significant impact of gross primary productivity and child mortality rate on the total fertility rate. While there is indirect impact of mean annual precipitation, mean annual maximum and minimum temperature on the total fertility rate. Hence, there is negative direct impact of said factors on total fertility rate of the districts of the Punjab