Democracy Index Research Articles

Technical Innovations and Social Implications: Mapping Global Research Focus in AI, Blockchain, Cybersecurity, and Privacy

This study examines the balance between technical and social focus in artificial intelligence, blockchain, cybersecurity, and privacy publications in Web of Science across countries, exploring the social factors that influence these research priorities. We use regression analysis to identify predictors of research focus and cluster analysis to reveal patterns across countries, combining these methods to provide a broader view of global research priorities. Our findings reveal that liberal democracy index, life expectancy, and happiness are significant predictors of research focus, while traditional indicators like education and income show weaker relationships. This unexpected result challenges conventional assumptions about the drivers of research priorities in digital technologies. The study identifies distinct clusters of countries with similar patterns of research focus across the four technologies, revealing previously unrecognized global typologies. Notably, more democratic societies tend to emphasize social implications of technologies, while some rapidly developing countries focus more on technical aspects. These findings suggest that political and social factors may play a larger role in shaping research agendas than previously thought, necessitating a re-evaluation of how we understand and predict research focus in rapidly evolving technological fields. The study provides valuable information for policymakers and researchers, informing strategies for technological development and international collaboration in an increasingly digital world.

The principal components of electoral regimes: separating autocracies from pseudo-democracies.

A critical issue for society today is the emergence and decline of democracy worldwide. It is unclear, however, how democratic features, such as elections and civil liberties, influence this change. Democracy indices, which are the standard tool to study this question, are based on the a priori assumption that improvement in any individual feature strengthens democracy overall. We show that this assumption does not always hold. We use the V-Dem dataset for a quantitative study of electoral regimes worldwide during the twentieth century. We find a so-far overlooked trade-off between election capability and civil liberties. In particular, we identify a threshold in the democratization process at which the correlation between election capability and civil liberties flips from negative to positive. Below this threshold, we can thus clearly separate two kinds of non-democratic regimes: autocracies that govern through tightly controlled elections and regimes in which citizens are free but under less certainty-a distinction that existing democracy indices cannot make.

The economic impact of terrorism in South Asia

This study examines the economic impact of terrorism in South Asia. The region is currently home to 123 active terrorist/insurgent groups and is accountable for over 27 % of recorded global terrorist attacks. The annual data from the six most-terror-affected South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) during the US-led war on terror (2001 - 2022) is used. For econometric estimation, the five models: fixed-effect, generalized least squares (GLS), generalized estimating equation (GEE), quantile regression (QR), and panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) are applied. Terror-related death (a proxy for human capital loss) and per capita income (a proxy for purchasing power) are considered to measure terrorism and its economic impact. In addition, four economic indicators (military expenditure, population, official development assistance (ODA), and USAID) and three institutional indicators (electoral democracy index, political violence index, and mobilization for autocracy index) are taken into account as control variables. The result suggests that every additional 886 terror-related human capital loss across the region significantly reduces the purchasing power of each South Asian person by at least 9.800 US dollars. Moreover, among the control variables, military expenditure, political violence, and mobilization for autocracy negatively affect per capita income, while electoral democracy, population, ODA, and USAID positively impact it. This study will also help understand the implications of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda and achieving specific targets such as SDG 8 (promoting economic growth) and SDG 16 (promoting just, peaceful, and inclusive societies) based on the most terror-affected region.

Present Scenario of Post-poll Alliance in India

India is one of the greatest democracies in the World, however, the 2021 Economic Intelligence Unit ranked India at 46th position on Democracy Index with a score of 6.91. Such low ranking of in Democracy Index shows the mirror to changing opportunistic political culture prevailing in India. Free and fair election is the basis of any democracy where the government is formed as per the mandate of the voters. However, recent years in Indian polity has seen the increase in the trend of post poll alliance which provides the opportunity to form government by bypassing the public mandate. This left voters in a state of confusion where they are left uncertain of their role in democracy. The increasing trend of post poll alliances is a severe challenge to democracy which cannot be dealt with existing election laws. The present scenario of Indian politics demands the formulation of new laws to put a stop to this unethical practice of opportunistic politics

The impact of democracy on peace in Africa: Empirical evidence

AbstractThe nexus between democracy and peace in Africa is examined by applying data to 42 sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries between 2008 and 2020. The study used panel regression techniques that include Ordinary Least Squares, the Tobit regression to account for the limited range of the dependent variable, and the System Generalized Method of Moments to account for endogeneity bias. Using seven indicators of democracy, which include electoral democracy, liberal democracy, participatory democracy, deliberative democracy, egalitarian democracy, a total democracy index derived from principal component analysis, and the Polity2 score, and using the global peace index as a proxy for peace, our findings show that all the indicators of democracy, irrespective of the model, have a positive and significant influence on peace in SSA. The result has underscored the importance of advancing democratic practices and values to promote sustainable peace and stability in the region.Related ArticlesAntwi‐Boateng, Osman. 2015. “No Spring in Africa: How Sub‐Saharan Africa Has Avoided the Arab Spring Phenomenon.” Politics & Policy 43(5): 754–84. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12129.Asongu, Simplice A., Cheikh T. Ndour, and Judith C. M. Ngoungou. 2024. “The Effects of Gender Political Inclusion and Democracy on Environmental Performance: Evidence from the Method of Moments by Quantile Regression.” Politics & Policy, 52(1), 118–39. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12576.Ryan, Susannah. 2015. “White Gold and Troubled Waters in Southern Africa: Hydropolitical Policy's Effect on Peace in Lesotho and South Africa.” Politics & Policy 4(2): 239–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12114.

Civil Society in Providing the Development of Democracy in the Countries of the Eurasian Economic Union

This study aims to explore the influence of civil society on the level of democracy in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and propose mechanisms to enhance civil society formation for strengthening democratic processes. A comprehensive review of scholarly literature on civil society and its relationship with democratic development was conducted, alongside an analysis of the unique characteristics of EAEU member countries. Comparative assessments were made to determine the extent of civil society development, as measured by the Civil Society Participation Index, and the characteristics of democratic procedures, as measured by the Democracy Index. The findings indicate a link between civil society strength and democratic advancement. Specifically, countries with robust civil societies, such as the Republic of Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic, demonstrate higher levels of democratic development. This underscores civil society’s role as a catalyst for political and social transformations and state-building processes.

Partisan differences in perceived levels of democracy across presidential administrations

Democracy in the United States is in decline. The current work examines to what degree U.S. Americans perceive this decline in the U.S., and how partisanship may shape those perceptions over time. Using cross-sectional archival data spanning three U.S. presidential administrations (Study 1), we find that perceived levels of democracy by U.S. Americans on both sides of the political spectrum were not attuned to objective democracy indices but instead followed a partisan gap where election winners perceived higher levels of democracy than election losers. Using a longitudinal quasi-experiment tracking the 2020 presidential election (Study 2), we find that the effect of partisanship on perceived levels of democracy kicked in right after the announcement of the election winner but was the strongest after the official inauguration. Moreover, Trump supporters showed heterogeneous responses to the Capitol attack, which highlights the possibility of bipartisan willingness to defend democracy after salient attacks on democratic principles. We discuss the implications of the effect of partisanship on perceptions of democracy.

Is there a quantitative relationship between democracy and official statistics?

The main purpose of this article is to show the quantitative relationship between political regimes and the quality of the national statistical systems. The data exploratory analysis, usually treated from a qualitative point of view, shows a strong correlation between democracy and official statistics, a thesis confirmed in all continents. The most democratic countries are the ones with the best statistical performance. In fact, among the top 10 democracies, five are also in the top 10 for statistical performance. The correlation between democracy and statistical performance is about 70 percent, although over the years 2016–2022, it has been slightly decreasing. The country’s statistical performance is affected by political regime. The main indicators employed for this analysis are the Democracy Index by The Economist, and the Statistical Performance Indicators by the World Bank. The use of these global indicators, encompassing an entire range of years and countries, is unusual in statistical analysis.

Complementing electoral democracy assessment: The Plebiscitary Electoral Democracy Index and its application to the Andean Community, 2003–2022

Complementing electoral democracy assessment: The Plebiscitary Electoral Democracy Index and its application to the Andean Community, 2003–2022

Vietnam in the democratization process: Dynamics from the process of international integration and the development of information-communication technology

This article delves into the complex dynamics of Vietnam’s democratization process, highlighting the simultaneous influences of international integration and advancements in science and technology. This study investigates the impact of Vietnam’s increasing involvement in the global economy and international community, as well as its adoption of technological advancements, on the country’s path toward democratization. The study utilizes a mixed approach, blending qualitative analysis of scientific documents, Vietnamese government policies, and quantitative data on the democracy index from international organizations. It identifies international integration as a double edged sword: on one hand, it boosts economic growth and development, driving the democratic transition process forward; on the other hand, it also leads to economic dependence and inequality, potentially impeding democratic reform. The findings of this study show that the rapid progress of science and technology, especially information and communication technology, presents both opportunities and difficulties for Vietnam’s democratic process. It provides unparalleled opportunities for widespread involvement in political activities and the spread of democratic principles, but it also carries the risk of social unrest and the potential for the authoritarian state to control and manipulate information.

A Multiple Regression Model On The Relationship Between Deliberative Democracy And Political Equity: The Cases Of Greece And Turkey

This article presents a multiple regression model in which the effect of the political equality index on the quality of deliberative democracy in Greece and Turkey is investigated. The data was drawn from the V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) database which was announced in March 2024. As far as Greece is concerned, the final conclusions of the research include the positive effect of increasing the participation of women and LGBTI people on the index of deliberative democracy. Also, an interesting finding is the fact of the absence of importance of the participation of individuals in primary and secondary education in deliberative democracy, a fact that may be linked to the discredit of the Greek school. As far as Turkey in concerned, there is a negative relationship between the participation of citizens in tertiary education, as well as a negative relationship between the distribution of power by sexual orientation and deliberative democracy index. Finally, the participation of citizens in primary education has a positive coefficient and is highly statistically significant.

The revolution next door.

This paper explores the cascading influence of revolutionary moments on democracy and inequality, not at home, but across borders. We use data on revolutions and other social upheavals over the past 120years and examine their cross-national impact on a range of variables in neighboring countries. Engaging with debates on whether substantial democracy and equality increases require extraordinary circumstances, our research investigates whether revolutionary activities induce consequential spillovers, such as policy concessions from elites in neighboring contexts. In exploring spillover effects, the paper examines how significant events in one nation influence social life in adjacent ones. It encompasses an analysis of 171 countries over two centuries, connecting data on revolution with democracy and equality metrics, and hypothesizing that elite fear of revolutionary contagion may necessitate democracy and equality concessions to mitigate potential uprisings. Findings suggest neighboring revolutions positively impact domestic democracy and equality levels. We observe significant increases in an index of democracy and two indices of economic egalitarianism, although one of the egalitarianism measures is robust to all model specifications. Additionally, we find that isolated "protest-led ousters" can moderately increase suffrage and one of our indices of egalitarianism, while coups do not seem to impact democracy or inequality variables. By examining various upheaval types and outcomes across time and space, the study illuminates the causal relationship between global mobilizations and local changes, providing insights into how global events inform domestic outcomes.

Exploring the Nexus of Democracy and Mental Health: a Study of Urban People in Solapur City

Purpose: The present study aimed at understanding the intersections of democracy and mental health of people with reference to urban people of Solapur city. Theoretical Framework: The theoretical framework integrates insights from political understanding and social determinants of mental health to explore the nexus among democracy and mental health in Solapur city’s citizens. Study assess how individual perceptions and perspectives of democracy, including political efficacy and trust in social institutions, intersect with social factors such as access to resources, political power, to influence mental health outcomes. Research Method: The study has incorporated mixed method approach. The sample consisted of 231 adults (117 male and 114 female), in the age range of 18 to 65 years. The participants were administered the Democracy indicators developed by National Democratic Institute, Iraq (2007) after voluntary oral consent. Findings: The result of percentages shows that less than two-fourth of respondents opened that they have more democratic state, more than two-fifth said they have less democratic state, less than one-tenth of them opined that they have least and most democratic state respectively. It has found that the opinions are not associated with their age, gender, and earnings. However, the study tried to explore intersections of democracy and mental health of people in the context of eleven subscales of democracy index. Research Practical and Social Implications: The article intends to raise the debates and deliberations around democracy and mental health. They article pave the way for future in depth study on understanding the democracy and mental health with a larger sample size and in transnational study areas. Originality/value: Mixed research on mental health and democracy is need of the time and it’s become crucial to study democracy and mental health in different nations democratic nations.

Proces „Democratic backsliding“ (Demokratického úpadku) v Ruské federaci v období 2012-2021

The phenomenon of "democratic backsliding" is becoming a topical issue in today's international relations, with recent occurrences in various regions, including Europe. This paper examines the weakening of democracy in the Russian Federation from 2012 to 2021. The study aims to determine whether democratic elements were dismantled in Russia during this period. For this purpose, the theoretical framework by Ellen Lust and David Waldner was utilized, alongside Merkel's concept of embedded democracy. Appropriate indicators were selected to reliably reveal the deterioration in the quality of democratic institutions and processes in Russia, specifically the Freedom House index, Democracy Index, and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI). By employing these three indices, the study assesses whether Russia can be classified as an anchored democracy or a defective democracy. The findings, presented in the final section of the paper, indicate significant erosion of democratic practices and institutions in Russia during the observed period. This deterioration underscores a shift from an already flawed democratic structure to one that increasingly resembles an authoritarian regime. The study concludes that Russia cannot be considered an anchored democracy; rather, it exhibits numerous characteristics of a defective democracy, marked by weakened institutions and diminished political freedoms.

Money laundering and terrorist financing risks and democratic governance: a global correlational analysis

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the association between money laundering (ML)/terrorist financing (TF) risks (hereafter, money laundering risks) and democratic governance across 117 countries.Design/methodology/approachA cross-sectional design was used to examine the association between ML risks and democratic governance by a quantitative approach. The findings are based on annual ratings of 117 countries on ML/TF risks and democracy while controlling for criminality and peace. The data was compiled from the Basel Anti-Money Laundering/Countering Financing Terrorism Risks Index, the Economic Intelligence Unit (Democracy Index), the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crimes (Criminality Index) and the Institute for Economics and Peace Index for 2020.FindingsA multiple linear regression model found a statistically significant negative association between democratic governance and ML risks (B = −0.354, t = −7.454, p = <0.001) and a significant positive association between criminality and ML risks (B = 0.242, t = 2.692, p = 0.008).Research limitations/implicationsA cross-sectional design cannot determine causal inferences and generalization (Levin, 2006). The study only used a year to examine the hypothesis of a negative correlation between ML risks and democratic governance, thus making generalization difficult.Originality/valueExtant literature examined ML, terrorism and AML diversely. There was a need to estimate the association between ML risks and democratic governance, especially globally, during a global crisis like COVID-19, when democratic principles, such as the rule of law, transparency and accountability, are challenged. Many personnel were laid off, thus limiting supervision for ML and TF. This study presents evidence of this association.

Violence, Democracy and Criminal Justice in five South American countries (2014-2020)

Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Its average rate exceeds 20 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, while the global average rate is 6 per 100,000 and the epidemic limit is 10 per 100,000. No consolidated democracy has uncontrolled rates of homicidal violence, none of them have high impunity and a low rate of rule of law. Our task in this paper will be to relate violence, the level of democracy and criminal justice as a proxy indicator of the rule of law in five representative countries in Latin America. To this end, we use the following as indicators for measuring, classifying and correlating these concepts: democracy indices from The Economist's Democracy Index; UNODC homicide rates per hundred thousand inhabitants as a proxy for violence; and the factor eight criminal justice indices from the World Justice Project's Rule of Law Index (2021). Our theoretical argument, or conjecture to be tested, was that the indicators of violence, democracy and criminal justice as a factor of the Rule of Law are associated. In other words, the signs of statistical correlations and crossing data sets from the 2014-2020 time series point to a higher level of democracy when there is a higher level of criminal justice and, in turn, lower levels of violence. Data analysis confirmed our theoretical conjecture and, in the five countries analyzed, violence tends to fall with the improvement of criminal justice indicators (Rule of Law) and reflects a better quality of democracy.

The impact of political parties on foreign direct investment within Mexico

Today we can identify a variety of political and economic systems in the world. A free market economic system is more likely to work if it is based on a democratic political system. According to the Democracy Index 2021, Mexico went from being an imperfect democracy to a hybrid regime, with the risk of becoming an authoritarian regime. The transition from a political system of imperfect democracy to a hybrid regime represents a great risk for domestic and foreign private investment. There is a latent political risk for investors in this type of countries, which scares away foreign direct investment. This research presents an analysis of the behavior of foreign direct investment in Mexico from 2000 to 2021 by state and political party. The results from a point biserial correlation test prove the existence of a dependence between the attraction of foreign investment and the political party in government. Mexico attracted lower capital inflows since the presence of MORENA, actual political party that is in both, the federal and some state governments. Descriptive statistics show that in most of the matches there is a dependence and also a correlation, however it is prudent to study the direction of this relationship and the strength. The findings are based on an analysis of three years of government of the MORENA political party; therefore, a longer period could be considered for future research.

State of the world 2023: democracy winning and losing at the ballot

ABSTRACT This article presents trends in democracy, autocracy, and regime transformation using the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset version 14. We offer five main findings. First, the average level of democracy as measured by the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) continues to decline and has reached the 1985-level when looking at the population-weighted averages. Second, 42 countries are in ongoing episodes of autocratization, and 18 countries are in ongoing episodes of democratization in 2023. Third, we are the first to show that out of the 42 autocratizing countries, 19 are “Bell-turn” autocratizers, while nine out of the 18 democratizers are “U-turns.” Fourth, we unpack the familiar analysis of the three waves of autocratization and democratization by dividing these into the newly discovered stand-alone episodes of autocratization versus Bell-turn episodes, as well as stand-alone episodes of democratization versus U-turn episodes. This analysis suggests that regime volatility has increased in recent years, as a larger share of both autocratization and democratization are made up of Bell-turns and U-turns, respectively. Fifth, out of the 60 countries holding national elections this year, 31 countries are in some degree of decline in democracy, while only three are improving on democracy.

Risk Premium for Emerging Market Equities Versus Developed Market Equities

The paper provides the most recent view on the difference in ERP (Equity Risk Premiums) across various economic regions, analyzing data sets from the early 2000s to May 2023. The study demonstrates a significant shift in the relationship between ERPs in emerging and developed markets over the past two decades, which runs contrary to the existing research on the matter. The author estimated the average ERPs per country and economic region, analyzed ERPs on the industry level, and conducted the regression analysis using macroeconomic factors and analysis of upside and downside betas. The research established that, following the 2008 economic crisis, developed markets displayed greater resilience to negative economic shocks. Moreover, investing in emerging markets entails higher risks, characterized by elevated negative beta and higher volatility, but also increased upside beta. The regression analysis revealed negative associations between ERP and higher GDP growth and local interest rates, while a positive correlation emerged with a higher unemployment rate. Additionally, the paper incorporates the Democracy Index, indicating that less democratic countries tend to exhibit higher ERPs.

Income, growth, and democracy looking for the main causal directions in the nexus

The development of the political system of countries is noisy, but in the longer run a strong relation to the economy emerges in the cross-country data for income, growth, and the main democracy indices. Two main theories explain these relations: (α) starts from the strong correlation between income and democracy, seeing income as the causal variable. It is the democratic transition, which is the political part of the theory of the grand transition. (β) starts from the much weaker correlation between democracy and economic growth, seeing democracy as the causal variable. This is a part of the primacy-of-institutions theory, where the political system is a key institution. The discussion needs (λ) a link-relation between growth and income. It connects the (α) and (β) theories, so that one may explain the other. The analysis looks at all six possible univariate relations between the three variables using kernel regressions on a large, unified data set. This method gives a clear picture. The strong α-relation can indeed explain the weak β-relation as spurious, but the weak β-relation predicts that the α-relation is very weak. Thus, (α) encompasses (β), but not vice versa.