Demand-side Mitigation Research Articles

Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation

Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation

How demand-side mitigation can help shape effective climate policies

How demand-side mitigation can help shape effective climate policies

GHG mitigation strategies on China's diverse dish consumption are key to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

Combatting climate change depends on demand-side mitigation strategies related to food, which is in turn contingent on explicit estimation and management of dish-level emissions. Here, on the basis of a bottom-up integrated emissions framework, we first estimate the greenhouse gas emissions of 540 dishes from 36 cuisines using data from over 800,488 restaurants in China's provincial capital cities. By mining residents' dietary preferences, we then design various dietary change strategies to explicitly link food emissions to the Paris Agreement pledges. The results show that China's food system greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 4.64 GtCO2eq in 2020, accounting for 37% of total emissions, with average per-dish emissions of 8.44 kgCO2eq. Current emission patterns of food consumption in China may not be consistent with the attainment of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate targets, but transitioning towards low-emission cuisines and dishes could change that by reducing emissions by 38-69%.

Spatiotemporal drivers of food system GHG emissions in China

Food systems emissions (FSE) account for one-third of anthropogenic GHGs. Mitigating these emissions is pivotal for achieving the 1.5 °C target. Given current research gaps in regional FSE accounting and drivers for China, the world's largest food system emitter, this study constructs a regionally specific, bottom-up FSE inventory detailed by food types and downscales FSE drivers to the provincial level. China's FSE exhibited an initial decline due to energy pattern upgrades during the period of 1990–2000, followed by a rise between 2000 and 2018. Increases were predominantly in developed southern regions and were propelled by economic growth, consumer expenditure, and dietary pattern shifts. This study reveals the spatial heterogeneity of emission sources and drivers, emphasizing the necessity of demand-side mitigation strategies in developed areas. It underscores the importance of formulating regionally differentiated emission reduction and interregional compensation policies.

Sufficiency as a Value Standard: From Preferences to Needs

ABSTRACT This paper outlines a conceptual framework for a sufficiency economy, defining sufficiency as the space between a generalizable notion of human wellbeing and ungeneralisable excess. It assumes an objective and universal concept of human needs to define a ‘floor’ and the concept of planetary boundaries to define a ‘ceiling’. This is set up as an alternative to the dominant preference satisfaction theory of value. It begins with a brief survey of the potential contributions of sufficientarianism and limitarianism to this endeavor before outlining a theory of objective, universal human need. This recognizes the contextual variable nature of need satisfiers and the distinct methodology required to adjudicate necessities. It then turns to the planetary boundaries literature and utilizes a sequence of causal and normative reasoning to derive an operational ceiling and the concept of ungeneralisable luxuries. The final section addresses how the concepts of floors and ceilings might be operationalized via forms of dialogic democracy but noting the absence of any such institutions at the global level. Its policy conclusion is that a safe climate cannot be achieved through supply-side mitigation alone, and that fair demand-side mitigation necessarily requires a clear distinction between necessities and unnecessary luxuries, between which (hopefully) lies a space of sufficiency.

Zero carbon transitions: a systematic review of the research landscape and climate mitigation potential

Academia has a crucial role to play in informing urgently needed actions on climate mitigation. It is vital to understand what is known about the potential contribution of climate mitigation options, the barriers that exist to achieving that contribution, and to quantify the research balance and geographic focus of these various approaches across the literature. This PRISMA-based systematic literature review aims to provide the reader with the following: Firstly, an overview of the post-Paris climate mitigation research landscape and secondly, an assessment of the climate mitigation potential of those options per the literature reviewed. Analysis of the research landscape demonstrated that supply-side research greatly outnumbers that on the demand-side, which totalled just half of that which focused on the supply-side. In terms of the geographic scale, the reviewed literature was dominated by national-level studies, with sub-national studies the least common, particularly those at a local government level. Given this, it can be concluded that two key areas would benefit from further research–that focusing on demand-side mitigation, and that carrying research out at more local levels. On climate mitigation potential, wind and solar energy were found to be the biggest contributors to a decarbonised energy supply, across a range of study areas. Discrepancies were identified between findings in the academic and grey literature for several options, chiefly bioenergy and nuclear power: bioenergy made significantly higher contributions in the academic literature versus grey literature, with the opposite true for nuclear. Demand-side options all demonstrated significant mitigation potential in the literature reviewed but received very limited coverage in comparison to many of their supply-side counterparts. Future research should pursue this knowledge gap to reach a better understanding of the contributions they can make and ensure that policymakers have the data necessary to chart a course to a zero-carbon future.

Demand Side Mitigation and Net Zero Emissions: Technological, Social, and Cultural Challenges

Sustainability and Climate ChangeVol. 16, No. 2 CommentaryDemand Side Mitigation and Net Zero Emissions: Technological, Social, and Cultural ChallengesBernard ArogyaswamyBernard ArogyaswamyAddress correspondence to: Bernard Arogyaswamy, Madden School of Business, Le Moyne College, Syracuse, NY 13214, USA E-mail Address: arogyas@lemoyne.eduMadden School of Business, Le Moyne College, Syracuse, New York, USA.Search for more papers by this authorPublished Online:21 Apr 2023https://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2022.0125AboutSectionsView articleView Full TextPDF/EPUB Permissions & CitationsPermissionsDownload CitationsTrack CitationsAdd to favorites Back To Publication ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail View articleFiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 16Issue 2Apr 2023 InformationCopyright 2023, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishersTo cite this article:Bernard Arogyaswamy.Demand Side Mitigation and Net Zero Emissions: Technological, Social, and Cultural Challenges.Sustainability and Climate Change.Apr 2023.102-114.http://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2022.0125Published in Volume: 16 Issue 2: April 21, 2023PDF download

Beyond wells: Towards demand-side perspective to manage global methane emissions from oil and gas production

The international trade of oil/gas-implicated commodities could potentially jeopardize global methane mitigation targets when exporting countries have loose or even no methane regulations. Therefore, this paper constructs a demand-driven impacts model to uncover the impact of global consumption and international trade on regional oil and gas methane emissions in 2014. It's estimated that more than three-fifths of global oil & gas methane emissions are embodied in international commodity trade (e.g., petroleum, chemicals), primarily from large oil and gas suppliers (e.g., Russia, Nigeria and Iran) to large consuming economies (e.g., China, Japan and USA). Notably, more than three quarters of oil & gas methane emissions embodied in EU's final consumption occurs in other regions. Our results could facilitate targeted demand-side mitigation strategies (e.g., labeling low-emission products, shifting to a circular bio-economy) to complement supply-side efforts, especially considering the relatively loose supply-side methane regulations on oil and gas sectors in large exporting regions.

Negative emission technology is key to decarbonizing China's cement industry

The cement industry, which contributes to 8 % of global CO2 emissions and a large quantity of air pollutants, plays a pivotal role in achieving the carbon neutrality target. However, the question of how to decarbonize the cement industry toward net-zero emissions and the corresponding environmental impact remains unclear. An integrated assessment framework combining a top-down computable general equilibrium model, a bottom-up technology selection model, and a life-cycle assessment was developed to explore the cement industry’s carbon–neutral pathways and associated environmental impact. Results show that promoting energy-efficient technologies is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions in the short term, which can also significantly reduce air pollutant emissions. Improving energy efficiency contributes to reducing the emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5, by 33 %, 35 %, and 8 %, respectively, by 2030. In the long run, achieving net-zero carbon emissions requires implementation of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and demand-side mitigation measures. The share of kilns equipped with BECCS would increase to 68–75 % by 2060. Corresponding unit abatement costs of CO2 are 484–676 CNY/tonne CO2. However, BECCS triggers adverse side effects by increasing water consumption and land cover by 7–11 km3 and 3–4 Mha, respectively, in 2060. Thus, China should take full advantage of energy-efficient technologies to co-control CO2 and air pollutant emissions while avoiding negative effects of BECCS.

The demand-side mitigation gap in German passenger transport

Deep transport decarbonisation requires not only technological measures, but also large-scale changes towards sustainable mobility behaviour. Researchers and decision-makers need suitable tools for corresponding strategy development on a macroscopic scale. Aiming at broad accessibility to such methods, this paper presents an open source passenger transport model for policy analysis in German medium- to long-distance transport. It discusses model design and data, limitations, alternative approaches, and its base year results and concludes, that macroscopic transport modelling is very suitable for policy analysis on national scales. Alternative approaches promise more insight on smaller scales. As an exemplary case study, the model is applied to ambitious technology projections for the year 2035, showing the ambition gap towards reaching the 1.5 degree-target of the Paris Agreements. Results indicate that 66 million tCO_{2eq} per year must be mitigated through further technological substitution or demand-side mitigation strategies.

Exploring Transport Consumption-Based Emissions: Spatial Patterns, Social Factors, Well-Being, and Policy Implications

Recent years have seen an increased interest in demand-side mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the oftentimes spatial nature of emissions research, links to social factors and infrastructure are often not analysed geographically. To reach substantial and lasting emission reductions without further disadvantaging vulnerable populations, the design of effective mitigation policies on the local level requires considerations of spatial and social inequalities as well as the context of well-being. Consequently, we explore spatial variations in the links between consumption-based transport emissions with infrastructural factors, such as workplace distance and public transport density, and with risk-factors of transport poverty, including income, age, ethnicity, mobility constraints in London. We find that linear models report significant spatial autocorrelation at p ≤ 0.01 in their model residuals, indicating spatial dependency. Using geographically weighted regression models improves model fits by an adjusted R2 value of 9–70% compared to linear models. Here, modelling flight emissions generally sees the lowest improvements, while those models modelling emissions from cars and vans see the highest improvements in model fit. We conclude that using geographically weighted regression to assess the links between social factors and emissions offers insights which global, linear models overlook. Moreover, this type of analysis enables an assessment of where, spatially, different types of policy interventions may be most effective in reducing not only emissions, but transport poverty risks. Patterns of spatial heterogeneity and policy implications of this research are discussed.

The effects of visual sustainability labels on consumer perception and behavior: A systematic review of the empirical literature

Demand-side mitigation solutions such as changing peoples' consumption behaviors can substantially help limit climate change (IPCC, 2022). Labelling schemes are a promising tool to promote more sustainable consumption behavior by reliably informing the consumers about the performance of a product regarding a range of environmental, ethical, or social aspects. However, labelling has been conceptualized in different ways, approached from various disciplinary backgrounds, examined through diverse research designs, and tested across manifold product categories and contexts. The present research synthesizes the dispersed empirical evidence on the effects of visual sustainability labels on consumer perception and behavior by systematically reviewing the literature. In a two-step screening process, a set of predetermined criteria was used to ultimately identify 26 eligible studies. We narratively and quantitatively synthesized the empirical findings. Our aggregated findings suggest that labels do have positive effects on psychological and behavioral outcome variables. In addition, we identify a number of important moderating variables that can be categorized as individual factors of the consumers, as context factors in the purchase situation, and as factors inherent in the label itself. However, the reviewed body of literature reveals deficiencies in studying interactions of labels and external factors and in studying actual behavior change in field settings. Based on these insights gained from the systematic review, we propose avenues for advancements in the field of research and highlight implications for promoting sustainable consumer behavior.

Climate Change Mitigation Technologies: Prospects and Challenges

One of the significant, perhaps momentous, developments in the effort to mitigate climate change has been the convergence around the target of Net Zero Emissions (NZE). The path to NZE envisions a massive increase in the installed capacity of renewable energies (REs)accompanied by a radical reduction in fossil energies. The paper outlines the main technologies required to make renewables a reliable alternative. Storage mechanisms such as batteries, hydrogen, and pumped storage are reviewed. Major impediments to the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable sources include technological, political, and social lock ins. Since NZE emissions are unlikely to be realized without installing negative emission devices, carbon dioxide removal methods and their concomitant challenges are discussed. Demand side mitigation in the transport, buildings, and industry sectors, relevant technological solutions, and adjustments to social preferences are briefly addressed.
 In addition to analyzing the challenges to realize an NZE world, the paper cautions against a single metric focus while ignoring concerns over adaptation, rising inequalities, water and food availability, and biodiversity. The financial implications of the various mitigation technologies are highlighted along with the need to transfer technologies and funds to developing nations to avoid and/or reduce emissions. 
  

Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation

To meet ambitious climate targets, the aviation sector needs to neutralize CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 climatic effects. Despite being responsible for approximately two-thirds of aviation’s impacts on the climate, most of aviation non-CO2 species are currently excluded from climate mitigation efforts. Here we identify three plausible definitions of climate-neutral aviation that include non-CO2 forcing and assess their implications considering future demand uncertainty, technological innovation and CO2 removal. We demonstrate that simply neutralizing aviation’s CO2 emissions, if nothing is done to reduce non-CO2 forcing, causes up to 0.4 °C additional warming, thus compromising the 1.5 °C target. We further show that substantial rates of CO2 removal are needed to achieve climate-neutral aviation in scenarios with little mitigation, yet cleaner-flying technologies can drastically reduce them. Our work provides policymakers with consistent definitions of climate-neutral aviation and highlights the beneficial side effects of moving to aircraft types and fuels with lower indirect climate effects. Non-CO2 effects must be addressed for climate-neutral aviation but are currently ignored in international climate policies. The authors provide a framework with different definitions of climate neutrality, then show how technological and demand-side mitigation efforts can help to achieve these targets.

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.

Low-Carbon Development for the Iron and Steel Industry in China and the World: Status Quo, Future Vision, and Key Actions

The low-carbon development of China’s iron and steel industry (ISI) is important but challenging work for the attainment of China’s carbon neutrality by 2060. However, most previous studies related to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI are fragmented from different views such as production-side mitigation, demand-side mitigation, or mitigation technologies. Additionally, there is still a lack of a comprehensive overview of the long-term pathway to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI. To respond to this gap and to contribute to better guide policymaking in China, this paper conducted a timely and comprehensive review following the technology roadmap framework covering the status quo, future vision, and key actions of the low-carbon development of the world and China’s ISI. First, this paper provides an overview of the technology roadmap of low-carbon development around the main steel production countries in the world. Second, the potential for key decarbonization actions available for China’s ISI are evaluated in detail. Third, policy and research recommendations are put forward for the future low-carbon development of China’s ISI. Through this comprehensive review, four key actions can be applied to the low-carbon development of China’s ISI: improving energy efficiency, shifting to Scrap/EAF route, promoting material efficiency strategy, and deploying radical innovation technologies.

Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets

Phasing out the blast furnace to meet global climate targets

Efficiency stagnation in global steel production urges joint supply- and demand-side mitigation efforts

Steel production is a difficult-to-mitigate sector that challenges climate mitigation commitments. Efforts for future decarbonization can benefit from understanding its progress to date. Here we report on greenhouse gas emissions from global steel production over the past century (1900-2015) by combining material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. We find that ~45 Gt steel was produced in this period leading to emissions of ~147 Gt CO2-eq. Significant improvement in process efficiency (~67%) was achieved, but was offset by a 44-fold increase in annual steel production, resulting in a 17-fold net increase in annual emissions. Despite some regional technical improvements, the industry’s decarbonization progress at the global scale has largely stagnated since 1995 mainly due to expanded production in emerging countries with high carbon intensity. Our analysis of future scenarios indicates that the expected demand expansion in these countries may jeopardize steel industry’s prospects for following 1.5 °C emission reduction pathways. To achieve the Paris climate goals, there is an urgent need for rapid implementation of joint supply- and demand-side mitigation measures around the world in consideration of regional conditions.

Emphasizing urgency of climate change is insufficient to increase policy support

<h2>Summary</h2> Although many people are concerned about climate change, active public support for ambitious policies is still lagging behind. How can this gap be closed? Recent work has theorized that the perceived urgency of climate change drives public support for climate policy, but this lacks empirical evidence. Using advanced sparse regressions and comparative survey-embedded framing experiments with 9,911 eligible voters in Germany and the United States, we empirically studied the role of perceived urgency. Our study provides two findings. First, although perceived urgency is key in driving support for "low-cost" mitigation policies, it does not lead to more support for "high-cost" mitigation policies where the behavioral implications are visible. Second, while temporal reframing does not increase policy support or feelings of dread, context information about demand-side mitigation increases support for such costly climate policies. The results are particularly relevant for democracies, where ambitious policies require the support of citizens.

Towards net zero nutrition: The contribution of demand-side change to mitigating UK food emissions

The UK has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, and the food system is increasingly recognised as a critical part of realising this scale of mitigation. Food-related emissions are ultimately driven by demand. We therefore present a scenario analysis of the mitigation potential from transformative demand-side interventions in the UK food system. We construct a hybrid physical input-output food system model, evaluating the effect on emissions of moderating calorific intake to that in the UK Government Dietary Recommendations, modal shifts in diets towards plant-derived proteins, and of reducing consumer food waste. We conclude that the UK could reduce absolute annual territorial Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 52% (from 2017 to 2050) in the most ambitious scenario, where dietary transitions are the single most effective measure with reductions of 22–44%. Demand-side mitigation is also well positioned to address the UK’s consumption-based food emissions, which are approximately 52% higher than current territorial emissions emitted in the UK. Well-designed and equitable policy is required to realise the full mitigation potential of these options, and to navigate multiple structural issues including food poverty and carbon leakage. However, the current culture of acceptability around pro-environmental dietary change in the UK has arguably created greater space for policy intervention on the demand-side. Novelties of the analysis include modelling a range of demand-side options using territorial and consumption-based emissions accounting, designing scenarios of dietary change which reflect recent trends towards sustainable consumption, and proposing up-to-date policy interventions. The implications of the analysis are highly transferable to other developed nations. A demand-side mitigation approach could feasibly implement the identified emissions savings whilst working towards a more environmentally, socially and economically sustainable food system.