Spatiotemporal drivers of food system GHG emissions in China

Abstract

Food systems emissions (FSE) account for one-third of anthropogenic GHGs. Mitigating these emissions is pivotal for achieving the 1.5 °C target. Given current research gaps in regional FSE accounting and drivers for China, the world's largest food system emitter, this study constructs a regionally specific, bottom-up FSE inventory detailed by food types and downscales FSE drivers to the provincial level. China's FSE exhibited an initial decline due to energy pattern upgrades during the period of 1990–2000, followed by a rise between 2000 and 2018. Increases were predominantly in developed southern regions and were propelled by economic growth, consumer expenditure, and dietary pattern shifts. This study reveals the spatial heterogeneity of emission sources and drivers, emphasizing the necessity of demand-side mitigation strategies in developed areas. It underscores the importance of formulating regionally differentiated emission reduction and interregional compensation policies.