Demand-side Measures Research Articles

Energy management in a grid-connected microgrid using hybrid Golden Jackal optimization and gradient descent optimization and the concept of loadability

Golden Jackal optimization (GJO) maintains diversity and can simultaneously explore multiple regions of the search space since it operates on a population of solutions. However, the GJO has the demerit of deprived exploitation capability and it struck in local optima easily. For enhanced optimization efficacy, the suggested approach integrates a hybrid optimization algorithm that combines gradient descent and the GJO algorithm. The goal of this hybrid strategy is to influence the complimentary advantages of both algorithms: the local exploitation potential of gradient descent and the global exploration capabilities of GJO. The suggested hybrid method uses GJO to initialize a population of possible results. Then, iteratively exploring the search space, it notifies solutions based on GJO's mechanisms for exploration and exploitation. Furthermore, a portion of the population undergoes refinement using gradient descent in order to effectively converge towards local minima by utilizing local knowledge. The hybrid algorithm demonstrates improved convergence speed, robustness to diverse search space characteristics, and effectiveness in handling large-scale optimization problems compared to various optimization techniques including particle swarm optimization, pelican optimization, artificial bee colony, whale optimization algorithm and grey wolf optimization, standalone GJO and gradient descent algorithms. The total cost of the MG with the proposed methodology has reduced to 12017 rupees from 12350 by gradient descent and 12332 using GJO. Detailed comparison of various optimization techniques has been presented in the results section. Further, this paper also addressed the concept of loadability, which refers to the MG's ability to meet electricity demand under varying conditions, relying solely on its internal resources. Achieving optimal loadability in isolated MGs involves diversifying generation sources, leveraging energy storage systems, implementing demand-side management measures, utilizing predictive analytics, and designing resilient grid infrastructure. By implementing Bayesian sparse polynomial chaos expansion, the concept of loadability has been assessed. Due to which the MG operators can enhance energy management capabilities and maximize loadability, ensuring reliable and sustainable electricity supply to connected loads.

Artificial recharge initiatives in India: Challenges and future scope

Artificial recharge of aquifers is regarded as a fundamental supply-side strategy in India to address the prevalent issue of groundwater over-exploitation. Rainwater harvesting and artificial recharge are often implemented as cohesive sets of interventions because of the significant collateral benefits of rainwater harvesting. Central and state governments have implemented various schemes that incorporate rainwater harvesting and artificial recharge. Several studies are underway to investigate the optimal selection of construction sites, structural types, and designs based on local hydrogeology, groundwater flow patterns, terrain conditions, and water demand. These investigations aimed to assess the impact of these factors on resource replenishment and water quality enhancement. Studies have been conducted to determine the extent to which such initiatives yield socio-economic advantages. The discourse has encompassed crucial concerns, such as the accessibility of source water for recharge, conflicts between upstream and downstream stakeholders, and the increasing recognition of various demand-side measures for the sustainable administration of groundwater reservoirs. The paper highlights that there has been a rise in the number of studies regarding artificial recharge post-2020. Overall, this paper showcases the challenges for the implementation of artificial recharge structures with special focus on aspects such as site suitability, water quality concerns, operational problems and governance. The study also sheds light on the future scope of artificial recharge for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. More studies should be performed considering large-scale implications of artificial recharge structures considering resilience towards climate change and water quality and quality concerns.

Multiplier effect on reducing carbon emissions of joint demand and supply side measures in the hydrogen market

Hydrogen energy is critical in replacing fossil fuels and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Three measures can be implemented to promote hydrogen energy: reduce the cost of low-carbon hydrogen through technological improvements, increase the production capacity of low-carbon hydrogen by stimulating investment, and enhance hydrogen use as an energy carrier and in industrial processes by demand-side policies. This article examines how effective these measures are, if successfully implemented, in boosting the hydrogen market and reducing global economy-wide carbon emissions using a global computable general equilibrium model. The results show that all the measures increase the production and use of low-carbon hydrogen, whether implemented alone or jointly. Notably, the emissions reduced by joint implementation of all the measures in 2050 become 2.5 times the sum of emissions reduced by individual implementation, indicating a considerable multiplier effect. This suggests supply and demand side policies be implemented jointly to maximize their impact on reducing emissions.

Trade and decoupling of fossil fuel use embedded in EU consumption

The EU is frequently recognised as a frontrunner in tackling climate change; however, this assessment primarily relies on production-based evaluations, overlooking the significant role of imports. We conduct a detailed consumption-based analysis of how EU consumption drives global fossil fuel use, combining input–output with structural decomposition analysis and the subsystem approach. We find that the embedded EU fossil fuel footprint has experienced a notable decline between 2000 and 2014, but at rates incompatible with 1.5 °C. We identify trade patterns to be an important upward driver of the EU footprint through intermediate production, also thwarting the impact of the energy transition with effects from changes outside the EU lagging within EU developments. Addressing these outsourcing patterns to more fossil fuel intense production could reduce the EU footprint by almost 20%. We find that more than 50% of fossil fuels embedded in imports are linked to indirect imports. Thus, we argue for the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to include indirect imports, particularly of electricity. Yet, given the problematic role of growth, even energy transition efforts along the global supply chain will likely need to be complemented by demand side measures, potentially entailing post-growth pathways.

Energy flexibility and resilience analysis of demand-side energy efficiency measures within existing residential houses during cold wave event

Energy flexibility and resilience analysis of demand-side energy efficiency measures within existing residential houses during cold wave event

Climate neutrality in European heavy-duty road transport: How to decarbonise trucks and buses in less than 30 years?

The decarbonisation of heavy-duty road transport is subject to many uncertainties regarding fuel choices and the role of efficiency and demand-side measures. Moreover, the various segments of heavy-duty road transport exhibit distinctive characteristics, posing challenges in identifying a one-size-fits-all solution. In a scenario-based analysis with coupled modelling of the European energy system and its endogenous transport demand (driver training, improved logistics and collective mobility) we study the decarbonisation of European heavy-duty road transport through 2050, with a granular representation of its segments in the modelling exercise. Our modelling results show that battery electric vehicles are the key enablers of climate neutrality, representing 60 %–89 % of trucks and 79 %–96 % of buses by 2050. Yet, this important level of electrification, in a climate-neutral Europe, represent at most 4 % (320 TWh) of final electricity consumption. While shifting to electric and hydrogen vehicles brings significant fuel savings (41 %–66 %) and emission reductions (33 %–60 % cumulatively), demand-side operational measures can quickly and cost-effectively complement fuel switching, bringing up to 50 % of cumulative emission savings. The modelling results are highly sensitive to policy assumptions, especially regarding those related to the role of clean hydrogen. This calls for long-term planning with stable and clear signalling of technology choices.

Homeownership of young adults in Austria from a national and regional perspective since 2010 – a fading dream?

Since around 2008 there has been a sharp decline in homeownership rates in many OECD countries, particularly among young adults. This may reflect changing preferences for more flexible housing options or a decline in affordability due to a combination of house price increases and more difficult access to finance (mortgage loans, deteriorating labour market conditions, insufficient income, etc.). We first examine how these trends affect Austria as a whole and then focus on two regions with long-term policy strategies to promote homeownership through tailored housing subsidy programmes (Lower Austria, Vorarlberg). We use survey data from three sources (Microcensi, EU-SILC, HFCS) and regional administrative data. Our results show that young adults (up to 35) are less likely to become homeowners in 2020 than in 2010, although this is more pronounced for the middle-aged (35–49) than for younger people. We show that the analysis at national level is insufficient, as there are large differences between regions and between types of dwelling. Focusing on the regional level reveals that price dynamics in urban areas, which exceed income developments, appear to be the main drivers. As young households participate less in homeownership than previous generations, this points to a latent and deepening problem of intergenerational equity. Current regional policies to promote homeownership do not reach the necessary scale to counteract the dominant market trends. We discuss regional policy options that make use of the Austrian housing policy framework and focus on increasing the overall supply of housing rather than exclusively on demand-side measures.

Does higher climate concern lead to a smaller carbon footprint? A study among the Nordic country residents

The global carbon budget to keep warming within 1.5° is being rapidly depleted, and demand-side measures are crucial to meet mitigation targets. Although the Nordic countries are regarded as having strong environmental policies, per capita consumption-based carbon footprints are high. The effect of climate concern and other pro-environmental attitudes on pro-environmental behaviour has been extensively studied, but the relationship between climate concern and consumption-based carbon footprints is largely unknown. Using responses from around 8000 Nordic participants of an online carbon footprint calculator survey, carbon footprints were investigated at different levels of climate concern, across consumption domains, and across the five Nordic countries. Although participants with high climate concern had carbon footprints between 1.5–2 tons lower than those with low concern, the overall footprints were well above the global average, and 2–3x higher than the level compatible with 1.5° warming.

Challenges and Opportunities in Electric Vehicle Charging: Harnessing Solar Photovoltaic Surpluses for Demand-Side Management

The recharging of electric vehicles will undoubtedly entail an increase in demand. Traditionally, efforts have been made to shift their recharging to off-peak hours of the consumption curve, where energy demand is lower, typically during nighttime hours. However, the introduction of photovoltaic solar energy presents a new scenario to consider when synchronizing generation and demand curves. High-generation surpluses are expected during the central day hours, due to the significant contribution of this generation; these surpluses could be utilized for electric vehicle recharging. Hence, these demand-side management analyses present important challenges for electricity systems and markets. This research explores this overdemand avenue and presents a method for determining the ideal recharge curve of the electric vehicle. Consequently, with this objective of maximizing photovoltaic generation to cover as much of the foreseeable demand for electric vehicles as possible in future scenarios of the electrification of the economy, the six fundamental electric vehicle charging profiles have been analyzed. A practical scenario for 2040 is projected for the Canary Islands, estimating the potential levels of demand-side management and associated coverage. The coverage ranges from less than 20% to over 40%, considering the absence of demand-side management measures and the maximum displacement achievable through such measures.

Optimal Scheduling Considering Carbon Capture and Demand Response under Uncertain Output Scenarios for Wind Energy

In light of the uncertainties associated with renewable energy sources like wind and photovoltaics, this study aims to progressively increase their proportion in the energy mix. This is achieved by integrating carbon capture devices into traditional thermal power plants and enhancing demand-side management measures, thereby advancing low-carbon objectives in the energy and electricity sectors. Initially, the research proposes utilizing the K-means clustering algorithm to consolidate and forecast the fluctuating outputs of renewable energies such as wind and photovoltaics. Further, it entails a comprehensive analysis of low-carbon resources on both the supply and demand sides of the electricity system. This includes installing carbon storage and power-to-gas facilities in carbon capture plants to create a versatile operating model that can be synchronized with wind power systems. Additionally, the limitations of carbon capture plants are addressed by mobilizing demand-side response resources and enhancing the system’s low-carbon performance through the coordinated optimization of supply and demand resources. Ultimately, this study develops an integrated energy system model for low-carbon optimal operation, aimed at minimizing equipment investment, carbon emission costs, and operational and maintenance expenses. This model focuses on optimizing the load and supply distribution plans of the electrical system and addressing issues of load shedding and the curtailment of wind and solar power. Validation through three typical scenarios demonstrates that the proposed scheduling method effectively utilizes adjustable resources in the power system to achieve the goal of low-carbon economic dispatch.

Reassessing the need for carbon dioxide removal: moral implications of alternative climate target pathways

Abstract Non-technical summary Scenarios compatible with the Paris agreement's temperature goal of 1.5 °C involve carbon dioxide removal measures – measures that actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere – on a massive scale. Such large-scale implementations raise significant ethical problems. Van Vuuren et al. (2018), as well as the current IPCC scenarios, show that reduction in energy and or food demand could reduce the need for such activities. There is some reluctance to discuss such societal changes. However, we argue that policy measures enabling societal changes are not necessarily ethically problematic. Therefore, they should be discussed alongside techno-optimistic approaches in any kind of discussions about how to respond to climate change. Technical summary The 1.5 °C goal has given impetus to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures, such as bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage, or afforestation. However, land-based CDR options compete with food production and biodiversity protection. Van Vuuren et al. (2018) looked at alternative pathways including lifestyle changes, low-population projections, or non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation, to reach the 1.5 °C temperature objective. Underlined by the recently published IPCC AR6 WGIII report, they show that demand-side management measures are likely to reduce the need for CDR. Yet, policy measures entailed in these scenarios could be associated with ethical problems themselves. In this paper, we therefore investigate ethical implications of four alternative pathways as proposed by Van Vuuren et al. (2018). We find that emission reduction options such as lifestyle changes and reducing population, which are typically perceived as ethically problematic, might be less so on further inspection. In contrast, options associated with less societal transformation and more techno-optimistic approaches turn out to be in need of further scrutiny. The vast majority of emission reduction options considered are not intrinsically ethically problematic; rather everything rests on the precise implementation. Explicitly addressing ethical considerations when developing, advancing, and using integrated assessment scenarios could reignite debates about previously overlooked topics and thereby support necessary societal discourse. Social media summary Policy measures enabling societal changes are not necessarily as ethically problematic as commonly presumed and reduce the need for large-scale CDR.

Shifting Gendered Social Norms: Impact of a Mass Media Campaign on Child Health in India

Exposure to media has been successful in shifting gender norms in many developing countries. In this paper, we study the impact of a government-led media intervention on the probability of the birth of a daughter and the gender gap in early life health outcomes. The intervention, implemented in India between 2015 and 2018, included a mass media campaign designed to increase the perception of the value of a female child, while also tightening the policing of illegal sex-selective abortions. We exploit variation in the timing of exposure to the programme across Indian districts as well as quasi-exogenous variation in the sex of the firstborn child to identify the impact of the programme and find that it led to an increased proportion of female births as well as a reduction in the gender gap in mortality in intensively treated families. The mechanism that explains our results is a relative increase in health investments in daughters, such as breastfeeding and vaccinations. Our results have important policy implications: they emphasise the importance of demand-side measures to change people’s preferences for daughters rather than just imposing top-down, supply-side bans on discriminatory behaviour, which can lead to increased gender discrimination on alternative margins.

Why higher copayments for opioids did not reduce use among Medicare beneficiaries.

To examine whether higher cost-sharing deterred prescription opioid use. Medicare Part D claims from 2007 to 2016 for a 20% random sample of Medicare enrollees. We obtain estimates of the effect of cost-sharing on prescription opioid use using ordinary least squares and instrumental variables methods. In both, we exploit the variation (change) in cost-sharing within plans over time for a sample of beneficiaries who remain in the same plan. Focusing on changes in cost-sharing within a plan for a constant sample of beneficiaries mitigates potential bias from plan selection and using a constant set of weights derived from use in year (t) eliminates changes in the cost-sharing indexes due to (endogenous) consumer choice in year (t+1). Part D plans adopted benefit changes designed to reduce opioid use, including moving opioids to higher cost-sharing tiers. Increasing plan copayments for hydrocodone or oxycodone was associated with reductions in plan-paid claims and offsetting increases in cash claims. Widespread availability of low-cost generics combined with the anti-clawback provision in Part D mediated the effect of higher cost sharing to curb opioid use. As plans moved generic opioids to higher cost-sharing tiers, beneficiaries simply paid cash prices and aggregate use remained largely unchanged. The anti-clawback provision in Part D, intended to protect beneficiaries from price gouging, limited plans' ability to constrain opioid use through typical demand-side measures such as increased cost-sharing.

Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in Slovenia: simulations with a macroeconometric model

In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policies with respect to macroeconomic stabilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in the small open economy of Slovenia. Using SLOPOL11, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the development of the its economy during the 2020s under alternative assumptions about future pandemic-related shocks. We also determine optimal fiscal policies to combat the effects of the pandemic and to stabilise the economy under two scenarios for the future course of developments under COVID-19. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component.

Did it increase energy consumption? A difference-in-differences evaluation of a rural electrification policy in Gujarat, India using night-time lights data

Electricity access is an important issue and building capacity for it requires drawing relevant lessons from past policies. In this study, we evaluate the effect of the Jyotigram Yojana, or the lighted village scheme, a supply-side policy intervention during 2003–08 to increase rural electricity access in Gujarat, India. We hypothesize that policy implementation is associated with increased electricity consumption. To test this hypothesis, we exploit variation in the timing of policy implementation at the village level, and use a generalized difference-in-differences strategy for identification. Further, we use night-time luminosity measured through remote sensing as a proxy for electricity consumption, and control for weather, village fixed effect, year fixed effect, and village or administrative block specific time trend. We find that while the overall effect of the policy on night-time luminosity was not statistically significant, the effects were likely heterogeneous, with the night-time luminosity increasing in some districts after policy implementation and decreasing in others. We conclude that the policy might have had a re-distributive effect on electricity access or consumption and recommend adopting a more holistic approach – incorporating both supply-side and demand-side measures – to increase electricity access.

The booming non-food bioeconomy drives large share of global land-use emissions

The non-food bioeconomy is widely recognized as a crucial strategy to address climate change. However, the growing non-food demand for biomass, such as bioenergy and bio-based products, is leading to global land use changes and consequent greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, a global region- and biomass-specific land-use emissions (LUE) inventory and the Food and Agricultural Biomass Input-Output Model (FABIO) were used to quantify the LUE embodied in global non-food biomass supply chains. The results revealed that in 2013, the LUE induced by non-food biomass demand accounted for over one-quarter of the global LUE, with wood as the dominant contributor (47%), followed by live animals (17%) and oil crops (13%). Additionally, over 876 million tons (Mt) of LUE were associated with international biomass trade for non-food use, mainly from tropical countries/regions (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand) to large developing ones (Mainland China and India) and major developed ones (the USA, the EU27 and Japan). This underscores the need for consumption-based accounting of non-food biomass uses, including emissions from land use changes. Furthermore, demand-side measures such as enhancing transparency in international biomass supply chains, establishing monitoring and certification systems for certain bio-based commodities to track LUE, and fostering multi-stakeholder collaboration are crucial for effectively reducing LUE.

4th generation district heating (4GDH) in developing countries: Low-temperature networks, prosumers and demand-side measures

The aim is locating low-cost renovation measures to support the efficiency of district heating (DH). The topology analysis and GIS Zulu© are applied for hydraulic simulation and to verify the scenario viability. The scenarios are compared by life cycle cost, levelized cost of heat (LCoH), capital and operational costs, energy production and consumption, network length, heat losses, linear heat density, heat pump usage, peak load reduction, nominal power duration or the equivalent full load time. As demand-side measures (DSM), improved control, thermostats with an indoor temperature sensor and variable frequency drive (VFD) pumps reduce heat demand. Prosumer scenario imply installing a base-load heat pump. It means a consumer no longer receives heat from the DH system, because the households are now adapted to lower space heating (SH) supply temperature. Prosumer concept also allows placing a heat pump on the DH return line. The simplest configuration includes only the booster heat pump and domestic hot water (DHW) tank storages enough to cover morning or evening consumption peak. To limit piping cost, only supply and return pipes are considered for low-temperature DH, no additional (service) pipes or mixing valves are assumed. Converting single-family houses to prosumers decreases energy consumption, primary network flows and temperatures. LCoH ranges 19.7-35.4 EUR/MWh, depends on the decommissioned pipe length and its proportional pipe investment cost. LCoH decreases as the share of consumers converted to prosumers increases. Discounted payback time is 10 years for DSM and 41 years for prosumer case. For a base-load heat pump, the payback time is much higher than the reference scenario. It implies the same share of heat losses (16% of heat supplied from the CHP plant) with generally worse environmental and energy saving effect due to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and higher consumption of primary energy. Energy production is expected to follow the pattern of the useful energy consumption to compensate heat losses. The effects are decreasing residential heat demand (-4%), additional capacity to connect new consumers (+6%) and decreasing the network length.

Co-creating socio-technical scenarios for net-zero emission pathways: Comparison of five national case studies

The extent to which modelled future pathways support effective policymaking for sustainability transitions has been questioned for a long time, with one major issue being the insufficient integration with the perspectives of policymakers and other stakeholders. One proposal to address this issue has been to set up facilitative dialogues with stakeholders to extend model-based pathways to socio-technical scenarios. This paper presents the results of a first series of such co-creation workshops, where stakeholders discussed bottlenecks for model-based decarbonisation pathways and ways to overcome these bottlenecks through tailored policy mixes. The workshops took place in five countries: Brazil, Canada, Greece, Germany, and the UK, each with a specific sector focus. In all five workshops, it became clear that substantial tensions exist between the “ideal” modelled decarbonisation pathways and the real-world situation on the ground. Also, adverse political framework conditions, uncertainty of future policies and resistance of powerful actors were emphasised as overarching bottlenecks in most workshops. At the same time, in several instances stakeholders pointed out important aspects of transformative trajectories that are not covered by the models. Some challenges and solutions stand out in all countries in spite of the strong diversity of contexts: allocation of capital towards massive investments into low-carbon solutions; infrastructure development for generation and transport of hydrogen, capture and use of CO2 as well as electricity grid and storage adapted to renewable energy solutions; stakeholder and citizen dialogues, where agreement is reached on cornerstones of long-term decarbonisation trajectories; and demand-side measures complementing investments into low-carbon processes.

Co-creating Canada's path to net-zero: a stakeholder-driven modelling analysis

Canada has pledged ambitious emission targets, aiming to achieve a reduction of at least 40–45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Being amongst the major economies with high dependence on fossil fuels, however, this path is far from straightforward. This research employs NATEM, a TIMES-based regional energy system model for North America with explicit representation of Canada, as well as knowledge produced and shared by stakeholders during a targeted workshop dedicated to identifying decarbonisation bottlenecks, to compare the paths to net zero on the basis of whether stakeholder perceptions are considered or not. We find that the path to net-zero is technically feasible but critically entails the use of negative emissions technologies, like (bioenergy with) carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture, in addition to the large-scale deployment of a large range of mitigation options already available today. Based on the feedback received from the stakeholders, around both the use of CCS-based technologies and the potential of demand-side measures such as modal shifts in transportation and better urban planning, we impose a set of additional conditions and restrictions. We find that the co-created net-zero pathway is also technically feasible while relying less on technologies that may trigger bottlenecks prioritised by the stakeholders; notably, despite yielding a similar emissions trajectory, it entails significantly different sectoral and technological configurations to the non-co-created net-zero scenario, requiring an acceleration of near-term abatement measures, mainly through electrification and quicker rollout of renewable and other clean energy technologies.

Climate Change Impacts on the Côa Basin (Portugal) and Potential Impacts on Agricultural Irrigation

The increasing gap between water demands and availability is a significant challenge for sustainable water management, particularly in the context of growing irrigation needs driven by climate change. In the Côa region (inner-north Portugal), agriculture plays a vital role in the local economy, ensuring food security and contributing to the conservation of natural resources, though also threatened by climate change. The present study assesses how streamflow in the Côa River can be affected by climate change. The HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) hydrological model was coupled with three global–regional climate model chains to simulate historical monthly and annual streamflow (1986–2015), and to predict future (2040–2099) streamflow under RCP8.5. Irrigation scenarios were subsequently developed considering a potential future increase from 10% to 50% per decade. The evaluation of HSPF performance during the historical period revealed good agreement (R2 > 0.79) between simulated and observed flows. A general decrease in streamflow is found in the future, particularly in 2070–2099, with annual mean streamflow projected to decrease by −30% until 2099. Interannual variability is also expected to increase. Generally, the simulations indicated higher future flows in winter/early spring, whilst they are expected to decrease over the rest of the year, suggesting drought intensification. An increase in water demands for irrigation, potentially rising from 46 hm3·yr−1 (baseline scenario) up to 184 hm3·yr−1 (50% increase per decade) may lead to unsustainable irrigation. Managing these opposite trends poses significant challenges, requiring a comprehensive and integrated approach from stakeholders and policymakers. Strategies should focus on both demand-side and supply-side measures to optimize water use, improve water efficiency, and preserve water availability.