Demand Regimes Research Articles

Government expenditure and economic growth: a post-Keynesian analysis

ABSTRACT In a post-Keynesian growth model with positive saving propensity out of wages, this paper analyses the implication of different kinds of government expenditures on aggregate demand and economic growth. We distinguish between government expenditure on consumption and investment. The basic idea is that certain kinds of government investment expenditure influences labour productivity. In a formal model, we incorporate this idea by assuming labour productivity as an increasing function of government investment expenditure. When the economy is in a profit-led demand regime, under the balanced budget assumption, we show that a shift in government expenditure from consumption to investment leads to an unambiguous rise in both aggregate demand and economic growth. However, the result is ambiguous in the wage-led demand regime. Once the balanced budget assumption is dropped, while in a wage-led demand regime a rise in government investment expenditure may decrease aggregate demand and growth, it unambiguously raises both aggregate demand and growth in a profit-led demand regime. On the other hand, in the absence of a balanced budget assumption, a rise in government consumption expenditure has a positive effect in both regimes. We also show that allowing the government to run a deficit and incur debt does not necessarily lead to the public debt rising without bounds.

Functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity growth in Turkey: A post‐Kaleckian analysis

AbstractThe aim of this article is to examine the relation between functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and productivity in Turkey by identifying demand and overall regimes prevalent in the economy. For this purpose, we conducted an empirical analysis using different specifications of the post‐Kaleckian model of Hein and Tarassow. This model defines and characterizes an overall regime by endogenizing productivity growth and integrating it into the models in this tradition. Empirical findings show that while the demand regime is wage‐led, the overall regime turns out to be unstable in Turkey due to the destabilizing impact of productivity growth. This article contributes to the literature by being the first study that simultaneously identifies the demand and the overall regimes of an economy.

Wage-led demand as a rebalancing strategy for economic growth in China

Rebalancing growth in favor of domestic consumption has been an objective of Chinese policy makers for over two decades. However, until recently little progress has been achieved. This article argues that the nature of the demand regime is a major reason for the limited rebalancing operated thus far. Until the great recession (2008–09), Chinese growth was profit-led, which means that an increase in the profit share of income had a positive effect on investment and net exports that exceeded the negative effect on consumption. The fact that the profit share increased by 10 percentage points explains why the rate of growth boomed over the 1996–2007 period. We show that after the great recession, China’s demand regime turned wage-led, which means that an increase in the wage share results in a positive effect on households’ consumption which exceeds the negative effect on investment and net exports. The conclusion is that a pro-labor policy may now contribute to rebalance China’s growth and make it less dependent on exports, overinvestment and carbon-intensive industries.

The Analogues Method: Reproducing the Seasonality of Drinking Water Distribution in Mountain Tourist Resorts

Few of the integrated water management surveys or water offer-demand models include a description of the seasonality of demand with sufficiently fine time steps (monthly and lower). The analogues method was developed in this study with as a case study the tourist resort of Megève (Haute-Savoie, France), presenting a strong seasonal variability in the demand for drinking water. The method is intended for decision-makers and urban planners, because it makes it possible to predict the seasonality of drinking water distribution in Alpine regions where data on water use is rarely available. It involves monitoring on a sample of domestic drinking water meters with a daily resolution, to identify the different demand regimes and use them as “patterns” to reproduce the municipal distribution signal.Analysis of the distribution of drinking water has highlighted two types of variability: high frequency (weekly) and low frequency (seasonal). The monitoring underlined the influence of the type of building and the permanence of the habitat on the drinking water distribution regimes. Finally, the analogues method is considered to be effective in reproducing the low and high frequency variability of the distribution. The size and representativeness of the user sample are the most important factors to be taken into account in its implementation.

Understanding the Brazilian demand regime: a Kaleckian approach

The empirical literature on Kaleckian growth and distribution models consists almost exclusively of studies of developed countries. These studies have used varied econometric techniques and estimation methods, but little attention has been given to developing countries. Onaran and Galanis (2013) provide an extensive review of this literature, and they complement it by estimating models for some developing countries. However, owing to lack of data they were unable to estimate their model for Brazil. This paper expands the empirical literature by applying it to Brazil. The Brazilian demand regime is analysed for the period of 1956–2008, using functional distribution of income data supplied by Adalmir Marquetti (which was developed in a paper by Marquetti et al. 2010). The paper estimates the open-economy Bhaduri–Marglin model using the single-equation technique outlined in Hein and Vogel (2008). The results of the estimation show that the demand regime in Brazil is wage-led domestically despite being an open economy. Consequently, increases in the profit share tend to diminish demand. The paper concludes with some policy implications of the findings.

Using non-linear estimation strategies to test an extended version of the Goodwin model on the US economy

There is a growing empirical literature that seeks to determine country growth and demand. One possible shortcoming of those studies is their sensitivity to the estimation strategy, which is linked to the time horizon. A profit-led regime has been found to be the most likely outcome when adopting an aggregative approach, while a wage-led regime is the most likely outcome when utilizing a structural estimation. Another potential weakness is that the empirical approaches adopted are mostly linear. To overcome these criticisms, we adopt wavelet analysis, which allows the decomposition of a time series into short- and long-term components, thereby enabling investigation of whether the growth regime switches over time. This paper tests an extended version of the Goodwin model for the US economy using data from 1967 to 2016. The results show that both the growth and demand regimes are sensitive to time and are profit-led in the short term and wage-led in the long term, thereby confirming Blecker's (2016) insight.

Trade imbalances within the Euro Area: two regions, two demand regimes

Greater trade integration, convergence in economic performance and a high level of employment among member states: this was why the Euro Area was created. In this respect, the paper analyses the sources of trade imbalances within the Euro Area, focusing on the direct trade relationship—intra-EA trade—between surplus and deficit countries. The econometric evidence based on a VAR/SVAR methodology suggests that asymmetric wage shocks determine asymmetric gains from intra-EA trade, resulting from opposing growth strategies. In addition, the empirical evidence shows that the Euro Area is divided into two economic regions representing different demand regimes: a northern region, which is profit-led and a southern region, which is wage-led. The paper suggests that wage coordination is an essential macroeconomic tool but is insufficient to achieve trade and economic integration given the current state of divergence. Thus, a trade-based transfer mechanism is proposed to restore convergence in the Euro Area.

Demand-led growth and accommodating supply

Abstract We model of demand-led growth with endogenous adjustment of labour supply and productivity, an approach that reconciles Harrod’s warranted rate of demand growth with supply. The model delivers a range of growth paths and unemployment rates rather than a single ‘natural rate’. Theoretically, the steady-state growth path may be dynamically stable or unstable, but empirical calibration favours stability. We show analytically that if demand dynamics are stable, supply will converge to the demand-determined growth path. While a minimum unemployment rate ultimately imposes a supply constraint on growth, empirical results show that a wide range of growth rates are feasible across different demand regimes. The results explain how economies can become trapped with low growth due to weak demand or fiscal austerity and suggest policy responses to stagnant demand.

Distribution shocks in a Kaleckian model with hysteresis and monetary policy

This study presents a dynamic Kaleckian model with different demand and distribution regimes, a monetary policy rule and hysteresis in the natural output level. We analyse the local stability of the steady state and the transitional dynamics in different combinations of demand and distribution regimes. Our model indicates that the initial condition in an economy matters for the steady state selection from multiple ones. Using impulse response function analysis, we show that a temporary shock to the income distribution can cause permanent effects on the dynamics of endogenous variables. Moreover, the degree of hysteresis influences the magnitude of impact on output levels. Monetary policy cannot stabilise output levels in the face of temporary shocks. Finally, we find that in a wage-led demand regime, a rise in inequality of functional income may lead to secular stagnation.

Cyclical dynamics in a Kaleckian model with demand and distribution regimes and endogenous natural output

AbstractWe analyse the interaction of demand and income distribution in a dynamic Kaleckian model with endogenous natural output. Endogenous changes of the natural output level to changes in the demand‐determined actual output level have featured prominently in discussions of hysteresis after the crisis of 2008. We consider wage‐led and profit‐led demand (PLD) regimes and goods market‐led and labour market‐led income distribution regimes. The stability of the steady state is related to the endogeneity of natural output level in certain regimes. Limit cycles arise when the strong flexibility of prices or wages to the output gap is combined with moderate natural output hysteresis. A Kaleckian model with a wage‐led demand regime and anticyclical profit share is less unstable and pseudo‐Goodwin cycles can arise in the PLD regime with a procyclical profit share.

Türkiye’nin Talep Rejimi: Post-Keynesyen Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Bu çalışmanın amacı emek ve sermaye arasındaki gelir dağılımının Türkiye’nin büyüme potansiyelini nasıl etkilediğini Post-Keynesyen bir açıdan incelemektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma Bhaduri ve Marglin’in (1990) geliştirdiği model temelinde Naastepad’ın (2006) ampirik yaklaşımı aracılığıyla 1998-2019 yılları arasında çeyrek dönemlik veriler yardımıyla Türkiye’nin talep rejimini tahmin etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre adı geçen zaman aralığında talep rejimi ücret çekişli bulunmuştur. Diğer bir deyişle ücret paylarındaki artıştan kaynaklanan tüketim harcamalarındaki genişlemenin büyüme üzerindeki olumlu etkisinin, yatırım ve ihracat üzerindeki daraltıcı etkisinden büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu ampirik sonuçlar temelinde emek yanlısı iktisat politikalarının ekonomik büyümeye olumlu katkıda bulunacağı ileri sürülmüştür.

Dimensions and Determinants of Financialisation: Comparing OECD Countries since 1997

ABSTRACT The financialisation literature has grown over the past decades. Despite a generally accepted definition, financialisation has been used to describe different phenomena. We distinguish between financialisation of non-financial companies, households and the financial sector and use activity and vulnerability measures. We identify seven financialisation hypotheses in the literature and empirically investigate them in a cross-country analysis for 17 OECD countries and two time periods, 1997–2007 as well as 2008–17. We find different financialisation measures are only weakly correlated, suggesting the existence of distinct financialisation processes. There is strong evidence that financialisation is linked to asset price inflation and correlated with a debt-driven demand regime. Financial deregulation encourages financialisation. There is limited evidence that market-based financial systems are more financialised. Foreign financial inflows do not seem a main driver. We do not find indication that an investment slowdown precedes financialisation. Our findings suggest financialisation should be understood as a variegated process, playing out differently across economic sectors and countries.

On wage- and profit-led demand regimes: learning from the evidence

This paper contributes to the empirical research around the “wage-led” or “profit-led” demand regimes. It first reviews how Kalecki, and then Steindl, approached the relationship between economic growth and income distribution. Then, empirical analysis carried out under the probabilistic approach to econometric modeling shows statistical evidence, estimated through cointegration analysis, that in the long run, in three very open economies—Mexico, France, and Korea—the wage share is positively associated with demand and output. It finally discusses the macroeconomic dilemma that almost all countries have to face, i.e., a positive effect of a high-wage policy on demand and employment may diverge from a negative effect on output compatible with external equilibrium.

An update on Kalecki–Minsky modelling

Within post-Keynesian macroeconomics, the Kaleckian streams analysing demand regimes and the Minskyan streams analysing financial instability have proceeded relatively independently. To develop a comprehensive alternative to mainstream economics, post-Keynesians will have to integrate Kaleckian and Minskyan arguments with an analysis of the supply side. This paper gives a partial update on advances in Kalecki-Minsky modelling. First, theoretically, it discusses the notion of pseudo-Goodwin cycles. Second, it presents empirical findings on endogenous debt cycles. Third, it reviews evidence of the relative size of distributional and financial effects on demand. Fourth, it reports results on the drivers of household debt.

Differences in wage-determination systems between regular and non-regular employment in a Kaleckian model*

In this study, we build a Kaleckian model incorporating institutional differences between the wage determination of regular employment and that of non-regular employment. In our model, three types of wage-bargaining regimes are defined based on how regular workers’ collective wage bargaining affects the real wage rate of non-regular workers. We investigate the stability conditions of the dynamical system under each combination of demand regimes and wage-bargaining regimes. We also conduct comparative static analysis and show that the effects of changes in the parameters are diverse depending on combinations of demand regimes and wage-bargaining regimes.

Building blocks for the macroeconomics and political economy of housing

Housing played an essential part in the global financial crisis 2007–2008 and the Euro crisis. Large parts of bank lending continue to go to mortgages. Housing wealth is the largest part of wealth for most households and is, at the same time, more dispersed than other forms of wealth. House prices exhibit pronounced fluctuations that are closely linked to credit growth. Housing thus plays a crucial role in the macroeconomy, which has become even more pronounced under neoliberalism. We scrutinize different theoretical approaches to housing. Despite its theoretical shortcomings, mainstream economics has pioneered empirical research on wealth effects in consumption and recently documented the role of house prices in financial cycles. Post-Keynesian theory emphasizes endogenous money creation, cycles in asset prices and debt, and has formalized the notion of a debt-driven demand regime. Comparative political economy research has recently developed the concept of the varieties of residential capitalism, which has different structures of house ownership and housing finance at the core of political coalitions. Marxist political economy has long established the intrinsic link between ownership of land and economic rent and notes that homeownership can act as force of working-class fragmentation. Wealth surveys can be used to trace the extent of conflicting interests in a class-relational approach.

Urbanisation and water insecurity in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: Insights from Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan

AbstractThis paper reviews the interlinkages of critical state of water resources, supply systems, rapid urbanisation and demand regime, aggravated by tourism leading to increasing water insecurity in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). Urban centres in the HKH have been defined based on different criteria, but mountain-specific criteria are lacking. In the mountains, small settlements such as district headquarters perform a large number of functions, typical of an urban centre. However, they are not formally classified as urban centres because they do not meet the census-defined nationally set criteria of the respective country. Nonetheless, water insecurity is a reality, attributed to: (i) water governance issues; (ii) inappropriate urban planning, failing, and to some extent, unable to account for the floating population, such as tourists; and (iii) the scourge of climate change which could worsen the situation further. Short-term coping strategies to meeting water demands often involve unsustainable solutions, such as groundwater extraction, with long-term repercussions. However, long-term strategies for water sustainability by the governments have been beneficial while others are yet to show success. Initiatives by civil society and governments along similar lines in other countries could lead to a water-secure future for the fragile urban centres of the HKH region.

Wage-Led Demand as a Rebalancing Strategy for Economic Growth in China

Rebalancing growth in favor of domestic consumption has been an objective of Chinese policy makers for over two decades. However, until recently little progress has been achieved. This article argues that the nature of the demand regime is a major reason for the limited rebalancing operated thus far. Until the great recession (2008-09), Chinese growth was profit-led, which means that an increase in the profit share of income had a positive effect on investment and net exports that exceeded the negative effect on consumption. We show that after the great recession, China's demand regime turned wage-led, which means that an increase in the wage share results in a positive effect on households' consumption which exceeds the negative effect on investment and net exports. The conclusion is that a pro-labor policy may now contribute to rebalance China's growth and make it less dependent on exports, overinvestment and carbon-intensive industries.

Neo-Kaleckian models with financial cycles: A center-periphery framework

The article develops a Neo-Kaleckian model that takes into account the impact of financial cycles on demand regimes. Both the financial instability hypothesis and the paradox of debt are considered, as well as both the upward and the downward phases of the economic cycle. The baseline model is insufficient to analyze financial variables in underdeveloped countries, as it does not take into consideration the non-neutrality of international financial markets. Following a center-periphery structure, we extend the model in order to discuss how financial movements in the periphery are mainly associated with external vulnerability. JEL codes : E11, E22, E44 Keywords : Minsky cycles, Neo-Kaleckian model, paradox of debt, center-periphery

A post-kaleckian model with productivity growth and the real exchange rate applied to selected latin american countries

This paper aims to discuss the theory of productivity growth and its empirical applications, several authors emphasize the impact of real exchange rate devaluation on productivity. The main research question is: does the real exchange rate have a positive or negative impact on productivity growth? The first step in answering this question is to discuss productivity growth in the context of demand regimes. The second step consists of an empirical experiment that estimates the productivity growth equation for a sample of Latin American countries. The overall outcome is that the Kaldor–Verdoorn coefficient is significant for all the analysed countries, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela. The wage-push variable is significant for only two countries, Bolivia and Chile, indicating that in Bolivia the regime is profit-led whereas in Chile it is wage-led. Regarding the real exchange rate and this variable squared, the parameters are negative for all the countries, indicating that real exchange rate devaluation does not increase productivity growth.