Demand For Steel Products Research Articles

Long-term factors and trends of the Ukrainian steel industry development

The paper deals with the study of long-term factors and trends of the Ukrainian steel industry development in the context of the influence of global industry trends. Its relevance is explained by the importance of the industry in the global and Ukrainian economy and the need to take into account modern economic, technological, social and climate challenges and opportunities for its future development. It was defined that leading factors of the world steel industry development in the long run are the demand for steel products, the implementation of latest technologies and the strengthening of a state industrial policy. Their influence will manifest in the increase of steel products consumption due to population growth, the priority implementation of smart technologies to improve the efficiency of steel manufacturing and strengthening of a state support for the industry, in particular – through protectionist measures. The main long-term trends of steel industry development on a global scale, due to the action of these factors, are the change in the geographical and product structure of the world steel market towards the leadership of the Asian region and the use of high-strength steels; increasing the environmental friendliness of the industry in order to achieve climate neutrality as a result of the implementation of breakthrough technologies; an increase of GDP steel intensity due to rise of steel production, which demonstrates a rather strong position of the steel industry in the economy. The study showed a slight decrease in the role of such traditional factors of the steel industry development as prices for steel products, investments and raw materials due to the increasing importance of means and directions for using resources instead of their ordinary availability. It was established that the main factors of the Ukrainian steel industry development in the long run, which are basically identical to the world ones due to its excessive export orientation, are changes in the global steel market, the development of latest technologies and the improvement in the competitive environment. And long-term trends are changes of steel products demand, increasing the environmental friendliness of the industry and reducing the GDP steel intensity. The influence of these factors and trends is largely negative and may lead to decrease of the role of steel industry in the economy due to the country's significant lag in terms of the introduction of latest technologies against the backdrop of increased competition in the foreign market, the lack of an effective industrial policy in the conditions of underdevelopment of the domestic steel market, a possible decrease in demand for steel products in the context of a declining population and a decrease in metal production. The improvement of the situation will contribute by the enhancement of the competitive environment through the elaboration of a long-term strategy for the industry development in the form of a separate regulatory act, the activation of the national market, the development of fundamental and industry science for the elaboration of advanced technologies of Industry 4.0 and the support of state authorities in promoting steel products to foreign markets.

Steel industry of the world and of Russia in pandemic environment

The crisis of the world economy, caused by coronavirus pandemic early 2020, resulted in a recession in demand for steel products, decrease of ferrous metals production. Dynamic of steel production by world regions and separate countries in 2019 and by 4 months of 2020 is presented. Results of IQ-2020 comparing with the analogue period of 2019, published by WSA, showed more than 10% production drop in such countries like Italy, Spain, Belgium, Taiwan, Venezuela and other, less than 10% production drop in the USA, Russia, Japan, India, Germany, Vietnam. Total decrease of production in IQ-2020 in Top-20 countries accounted for about 1%. In Russia, as per Rosstat data, production of steel and rolled products in the IQ-2020 was less by 1.1% comparing with the volume of IQ-2019. Dynamic of prices within the period from April of 2019 till April of 2020 presented for iron ore raw materials, steel billets, rebars, HRC and CRC at the world market. The decrease of steel rolled products import in the USA in January-April of 2020 by 5,8 million tons was noted, which is 28,2 % lower than the volume of January-April 2019. EC countries in IQ- 2020 decreased export of steel rolled products by 11% down to 4.51 million tons, comparing with IQ-2019, import decreased by 20.6% down to 5.7 million tons. China in January-April of 2020 comparing with January-April of 2019 decreased export of steel by 11.7% down to 20.6 million tons, and increased import by 7.4% up to 4.2 million tons. It was noted, that demand increase at the domestic market of China and tariff-wall, imposed by the USA, EC countries and other countries contribute to the decrease of Chinese export. In 2020 further decrease of steel products demand is expected by 6.4%. In EC countries the metal products consumption due to estimation will decrease by 15.8%, in developing countries (without China), as expected, by the results of 2020 the indices will deteriorate by 11.6%. Consumption of steel products in China in 2020 will increase by 1%. In CIS countries and Russia the decrease of steel consumption in 2020 will be about 10%.

Forecasting for Steel Production using Artificial Neural Networks and Feasibility Analysis of Plant Regeneration Acid Development in PT. XYZ

PT. XYZ is a steel production industry company. The Acid Regeneration Plant (ARP) facility has now shown a decrease in plant availability. This study aims to determine steel demand forecasting and also conduct a feasibility study for the development and replacement of ARP technology. Artificial Neural Networks, Linear Regression and Decomposition are used for forecasting experiments. The choice of forecasting method is taken by looking at the smallest MAPE value of each method. Artificial Neural Networks have the smallest MAPE value of 2.58. Then the Artificial Neural Network is used in forecasting requests for 2019 to 2020. The chosen network architecture is 24-12-1 with the traingdx training function. The results obtained are an increase in demand for steel products from 2019 to 2020. The increase in demand is 1, 329, 398 tons, an increase of 4.59% from the previous 2 years. Then a feasibility study is conducted to assess the construction of new ARP facilities. The feasibility study covers technology selection and investment appraisal. After making a comparison, the technology used is Spray Roaster. Based on the results of the investment appraisal using the NPV, IRR PBP, the new ARP development investment is decent and can meet future steel demand in the period until 2020.

СУЧАСНИЙ СТАН ТА ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ РОЗВИТКУ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ МЕТАЛУРГІЙНОЇ ГАЛУЗІ УКРАЇНИ

The article analyzes the activities of the metallurgical industry. He showed a significant impact on the entire industrial complex of Ukraine. The current state of the world market indicates global reductions in demand for steel products. In these conditions, domestic metallurgical producers also function. Along with an increase in the volume of sales of metal products on the domestic market, a decrease in the share of export products is observed. The reasons for this were: a decrease in the level of competitiveness of domestic metal products, an increase in their prices and the emergence of new powerful competitors in the world market: China, India and South Korea.But, we believe that for the further development of the metallurgical industry, it is necessary: refusal or reduction in sales of semi-finished products and raw materials and the transition to the export of metal products with a high share of added value; the search for new global markets for metal products; advanced training of workers employed in the operational activities of metallurgical enterprises and raising the level of labor motivation; obtaining new tax and budget benefits by domestic metallurgical enterprises.

Knowledge management tools development in the metallurgy

At present, the concept of knowledge management has entered into the practical life of many Russian organizations in various spheres of economic activity. Considering that the metallurgical industry of the Russian Federation, due to several factors, including a drop in demand for steel products in the domestic and foreign markets, economic sanctions against Russia, political and economic instability in general, experiences for several years a long-drown crisis, there arises an acute necessity to look for new methods and approaches to production management, for the improvement of resources application process, for reducing non-production costs. All these issues can be solved, apart from other measures, through the use of various knowledge management tools aimed at accumulating, preserving and transferring the exclusive professional knowledge of employees, because this knowledge is the key source ensuring under new economy conditions a long-term competitiveness of any organization. The author developed a system map of knowledge of the metallurgical enterprise based on the existing strategic management tool, which reflects the main elements of the knowledge system, and present features of their mutual transformation and the possibilities of legal ownership. The article proposes also a process-oriented knowledge map for the electric steel melting shop, designed to determine knowledge flows in the process of steel melting at a specific production site. The article presents the systematic knowledge map and process-oriented knowledge map reflecting the further development of tools already existing in the theory of knowledge management. They can be practically applied in the metallurgical industry. The application of these tools will help to mobilize the accumulated professional knowledge of people working on metallurgical enterprises in achieving their strategic goals.

Wykorzystanie modelu SVECM do badania zależności pomiędzy cenami surowców a cenami stali na rynku europejskim w latach 2003-2011

The article presents the analysis of the relations between the demand for steel products and the prices of steel and raw materials (coking coal) on the European market based on the monthly data in the period 2003-2011. The analysis of those relations was conducted with the use of Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM), which allowed to determine the impact of the supply of raw materials and the demand for steel products on the prices of steel products. The results obtained indicate that steel market is in long run equilibrium. The price of coking coal is the dominant variable in the system, and the prices of crude steel depend on the prices of raw materials and the demand for steel products. The price of steel is not the Granger cause for the remaining variables. As expected, the system reacts both to the increase in the demand for steel products and the increase in the prices of raw materials. The forecasts obtained using the model are valid enough and can be treated as reference points by the participants of the steel market.

Short-Term Opportunities for Decreasing CO2 Emissions from the Steel Industry

There is a strong political will to decrease CO2 emissions. Although the steel industry only accounts for some 5% of worldwide CO2 emissions (which totalled 1,200 million tonnes per annum in the late 1990s), it will be strongly affected by this. The EU, for example, is putting up strong economic incentives for reductions. This is taking place at a time when demand for steel products is greater than ever. To radically change existing processes and production routes to decrease the CO2 emissions would be extremely expensive, even if it were possible. Nevertheless, many of the solutions which have been discussed seem to go in this direction. The other alternative discussed seems to be the creation of process solutions and alterations that lead to a focusing of CO2 streams, i.e., much higher CO2 concentrations in flue gases than today, for entrapment of the CO2 so that it is not discharged into the atmosphere. These solutions are feasible, but expensive. However, there exists today a number of solutions and technologies which, if fully implemented, could substantially decrease CO2 emissions without seriously altering current methods of operation; they are short-term viable solutions. The present paper reviews and discusses such technologies, throughout the steel production paths. If these solutions are fully implemented, the combined impact on CO2 emissions from the steel industry worldwide is estimated to be a reduction of 100–150 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, i.e., current emissions can be reduced by some 8–10% within a relatively short time span.

The Iron and Steel Industry in Russia and the CIS in the Mid-1990s

A specialist on the industrial economy of the former USSR assesses trends in the mining of iron ore and related ferroalloy metals; the production of crude steel and mill products; and domestic consumption, inter-republican trade, and export demand for steel products. Particular attention is devoted to the impacts of changing organizational structure and pricing policies on steel output, the effects of disrupted inter-republican trade flows after the dissolution of the USSR, the role of foreign investment in the CIS steel industry, shifts in steelmaking technology (e.g., continuous casting), and trends in production of major ferroalloy raw materials (e.g., manganese, chromium). A concluding section focused on trends in the intensity of steel use relative to GNP provides grounds for assessing possible future levels of steel output in the major producing countries. 17 tables, 63 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L61, L72, P2.

A Fresh Reappraisal of the Steel Industry

AN EXAMINATION of the steel industry by the writer in August 19591 concluded that the upward revaluation of the industry by the investing public, which began about 1953, had been largely completed. This conclusion was based on the fact that the improvement in steel earnings and dividends during the previous six years was not the result of any spectacular growth in demand for steel products. Instead, earnings gains resulted from internal cost control and an upward movement in prices that more than compensated for rising costs. It was suggested that in the future the companies would have limited ability to increase prices and that profit margins could be improved only by internal efficiencies that would be offset, in part at least, by the upward pressures of labor and other costs. The experience of the industry since 1959 is fairly well known. A lower level of demand combined with a stable to moderately lower price realization per ton of steel shipped resulted in a sharp contraction of profits. Relative to the market, steel stocks have moved down almost without interruption since the late summer of 1959.

A Reappraisal of the Steel Industry

IN THE PERIOD SINCE World War II, the steel industry has undergone a major reappraisal by discerning investors. As earlier articles in The Analysts Journal and elsewhere have pointed out: (1) earnings have advanced and exhibited less of the cyclical fluctuations characteristic of the prewar period; (2) dividends have moved upward and regular dividend rates established and maintained even in periods of adversity; and (3) gradual recognition of these facts has resulted in increasing the level of price-earnings ratios, so that steel equities have been more profitable as capital gains vehicles than many of the glamorous growth stocks. This improvement in steel earnings and dividends has not been brought about by any spectacular growth in demand for steel products. It is the result, rather, of internal cost control and efficiencies in operations of the steel companies and, more importantly, the establishment of a pricing structure in steel products that has more than compensated for increased costs and has not been subject to the same erratic fluctuations as steel demand. The purpose of this article is to reappraise the industry in order to see if the factors that have made the industry so profitable an investment in the past decade will continue to operate in the future. This requires an examination of the organization and market structure of the industry in its present world-wide context.