Demand For Pellets Research Articles

Integrated open Leontief model for analysis of biomass pellet demand in Thailand

This study addresses the critical challenge of sustainably meeting the growing demand for biomass pellets in Thailand, particularly in light of increasing global interest in renewable energy sources. By introducing an innovative approach through the integration of the Open Leontief Model, this research constructs Input-Output Tables (IOTs) specific to the biomass pellet sector, encompassing 180 economic sectors. The study evaluates the economic impacts of varying domestic and international demand scenarios on Thailand’s economy. Utilizing mass and energy balance methodologies, it provides a comprehensive analysis of the biomass pellet supply chain, from plantation to pelletization, for both corn and wood pellets. Findings reveal significant economic intersectoral linkages within Thailand's economy, indicating the biomass pellet sector's potential to substantially contribute to national renewable energy targets and reduce fossil fuel dependency. Notably, the sector is projected to require an increase in raw materials, energy, and other inputs by 3.8% in 2024 and 2.63% in 2036, following the trend of international biomass pellet demand. Additionally, employment in the sector is expected to increase by 3.8% annually under international demand scenarios and 4.6% annually under domestic and international demand scenarios. The research concludes with policy recommendations aimed at fostering sector growth, emphasizing the importance of government incentives, capacity building, and the establishment of biomass plantation communities to meet the increasing demand for biomass pellets. This study not only sheds light on the sector's current state but also charts a path forward for sustainable energy solutions in Thailand in line with Sustainable Development Goals 7, 8, and 9. Together, these initiatives aim to ensure a balanced transition toward renewable energy, benefiting both the economy and the environment.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation Using Extended Input–Output Tables for Thailand’s Biomass Pellet Industry

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Thailand’s biomass pellet production were comprehensively assessed, with a specific focus on wood and corn pellets. Employing the extended input and output tables, the anticipated economic and environmental effects of the rising demand for biomass pellets within the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation region, which is projected to see an increase exceeding 33% by the year 2050, were investigated. The estimations of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions, which were conducted utilizing an open Leontief model based on the 2015 National Input–Output Tables, covered each stage of the production process. The results show that emissions from the production of corn pellets are expected to rise steadily, from 52.91 MtCO2e in 2022 to 75.77 MtCO2e by 2030, whereas emissions from wood pellet production are set to increase more substantially, from 210.30 to 301.18 MtCO2e within the same timeframe. Data derived from surveys and interviews with corn farmers and wood pellet manufacturers informed the lifecycle data for the biomass pellet supply chain from cradle to gate. The findings suggest that Thailand’s power sector could benefit significantly from the biomass potential in the northern part of Thailand, which boasts an estimated energy content of corncob at 39 ktoe (0.0016 TJ). Market demand scenarios were explored in two forms: one where it was assumed that all biomass pellets are to be exported to Japan and South Korea, expecting a combined demand of approximately 560,262 tons by 2030, and another positing that 10% of production will be reserved for the domestic market, with a forecasted annual increase of 10% from 2020 to 2050. This paper highlights the need to prioritize low-emission renewable energy sources, expand technologies with lower lifecycle emissions, optimize the biomass supply chain to enhance efficiency, and introduce sustainable energy practices. The detailed GHG emissions analysis provides critical insights for policy formulation, underscoring the importance of sustainable transitions in the context of increasing biomass demand.

Characterizing value-added pellets obtained from blends of miscanthus, corn stover, and switchgrass

The current pellet industry primarily relies on woody biomass. Inclusion of a diverse feedstock, such as herbaceous biomass, is necessary to meet the rising demand for pellets in heat and power generation, and for biofuel production. This study was motivated by the need to densify biomass, improving its naturally low energy density, to reach the required pellet standards for biofuel conversion. We developed value-added miscanthus pellets blended with different ratios of corn stover and switchgrass and analyzed their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Pure miscanthus pellet durability index (PDI) was less than 85 %, well below the ISO 17225-6 standard for herbaceous pellets. While increasing switchgrass and corn stover ratios increases durability beyond 94 %, it also increases ash content from 1.6 % to 4.6 %, a quality unfavorable for biofuel conversion. The moisture content of the blended pellets varied from 7.12 % to 12.45 %, and positively correlated with the durability of the pellets. Pure miscanthus pellets had the highest bulk density, 633 kg/m3, while pellets containing 75 % miscanthus and 25 % corn stover had the lowest density, 564 kg/m3. The findings of this study also identified a decrease in the pellet bulk density with the increase in ash content and pellet diameter.

Characteristics of Commercial and Raw Pellets Available on the Italian Market: Study of Organic and Inorganic Fraction and Related Chemometric Approach.

Air pollution and the increasing production of greenhouse gases has prompted greater use of renewable energy sources; the EU has set a target that the use of green energy should be at 32 percent by 2030. With this in mind, in the last 10 years, the demand for pellets in Italy has more than doubled, making Italy the second largest consumer in Europe. The quality of the pellets burned in stoves is crucial to indoor and outdoor pollution. Among other parameters, moisture and ash are used to classify pellets according to EN ISO 17225:2014. This work involved the analysis of the organic and inorganic fraction of both some finished products on the Italian market and some raw materials (e.g., wood chips) sampled according to the technical standard EN 14778:2011. The analytical results showed the presence of some substances potentially harmful to human health such as formaldehyde, acetone, toluene and styrene for the organic fraction and nickel, lead and vanadium for the inorganic fraction. The chemometric approach showed that it is the inorganic fraction which is most responsible for the diversification of the samples under study. The detection of some substances may be a warning bell about the impact of such materials, both for the environment and for human health.

Spatially-explicit assessment of carbon stocks in the landscape in the southern US under different scenarios of industrial wood pellet demand

Whether the use of industrial wood pellets for bioenergy is part of the problem of climate change or part of the solution to climate change has been heavily debated in the academic and political arena. The uncertainty around this topic is impeded by contradicting scientific assessments of carbon impacts of wood pellet use. Spatially explicit quantification of the potential carbon impacts of increased industrial wood pellet demand, including both indirect market and land-use change effects, is required to understand potential negative impacts on carbon stored in the landscape. Studies that meet these requirements are scarce. This study assesses the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape in the Southern US spatially explicitly and includes the effects of demand for other wood products and land-use types. The analysis is based on IPCC calculations and highly detailed survey-based biomass data for different forest types. We compare a trend of increased wood pellet demand between 2010 and 2030 with a stable trend in wood pellet demand after 2010, thereby quantifying the impact of increased wood pellet demand on carbon stocks in the landscape. This study shows that modest increases in wood pellets demand (from 0.5 Mt in 2010 to 12.1 Mt in 2030), compared to a scenario without increase in wood pellet demand (stable demand at 0.5 Mt), may result in carbon stock gains of 103–229 Mt in the landscape in the Southern US. These carbon stock increases occur due to a reduction in natural forest loss and an increase in pine plantation area compared to a stable-demand scenario. Projected carbon impacts of changes in wood pellet demand were smaller than carbon effects of trends in the timber market. We introduce a new methodological framework to include both indirect market and land-use change effects into carbon calculations in the landscape.

Preliminary assessment of hazelnut shell biomass as a raw material for pellet production

We evaluated the use of hazelnut shell (HS) for pellet production. The investigation of chemical properties, such as the calorific value, low ash, nitrogen, sulfur and chlorine content as well as low heavy metal contents, reveals that the proposed biomass is suitable. However, fuel agglomeration is complicated possibly by some chemical (high content of extractives and lignin) and mechanical properties (spherical shape of particles). Therefore, the blend of HS with pine sawdust is examined in an iterative study, and pellet production is feasible only for percentages of HS lower than 30% in semi-industrial pelleting. The produced pellets exhibit properties compatible to those of industrial and domestic standards; however, as expected the mechanical durability and bulk density needs to be improved. Further studies to identify the optimal operating conditions for the evaluated blend can provide strategies to satisfy the projected increase in pellet demand.

Assessment of Trends in the Global Wood Pellets Market and Opportunities of the Russian Federation in this Market

In connection with the adoption of the concept of sustainable development and the creation of bioenergy, the world market of wood pellets was formed. Pellets have received the status of a renewable energy source. Developed countries in Europe and Asia have launched a state policy to stimulate the production and consumption of wood pellets. Forest-rich countries, including Russia, have built production facilities and become exporters of "green" fuel. The purpose of the paper is to study the demand and assess trends in the global market of wood pellets, to determine the position of Russia in this market and the opportunities for the development of the industry. The materials of the study were the statistics of the UN FAO for 2012-2020 and the German DEPI Pellet Institute, scientific and industrial sphere publications. The study showed that the global market of wood pellets is growing. This is a buyer's market which is formed by two large regional markets — European and Asian. In 2020, Russia ranked the 5th place among the world producers and exporters of pellets. Russian production is export-oriented, and the domestic demand for pellets is minimal. The dynamics of world prices for pellets has been studied, a significant growth in prices in European countries since the end of 2021 and the factors of price increases have been established. In 2022, after the rise of political tensions and the imposition of sanctions, the situation of Russian manufacturers became difficult. The assessment of export opportunities showed a high degree of uncertainty, and a conclusion was made about a decrease in business profitability, about the possible shutdown and liquidation of pellet production in Russia.

Environmental externalities of wood pellets from fast-growing and para-rubber trees for sustainable energy production: A case in Thailand

Wood pellets are one of biomass-based energy carriers considered important as renewable energy source. This study considers wood pellets for heat and power generation from fast-growing Leucaena and Acacia trees and para-rubber trees in a life cycle perspective. The objectives of this study are to estimate the actual cost (including environmental externalities) of heat and electricity production from wood pellets, and comparison with the external cost of fossil fuels, as well as forecasting the external cost arising from the increase in wood pellet demand. For both heat and electricity production, it was seen that when external costs are included, wood pellets are cheaper than lignite and fuel oil although the latter are cheaper when only internal costs are considered. Four recommendations for reducing the external costs of wood pellet production are: 1) to support sustainable agriculture for para-rubber trees and fast-growing trees, 2) to consider clean transportation in the supply chain, 3) wood pellet factory zoning, including good logistics, and 4) considering the external cost of wood pellets for polluter pays principle. These results and recommendations of the study can provide important information to consider towards adjusting the national energy plan and to have strict measures for avoiding problem shifting from the use of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels) to issues related to the use of biomass-based fuels (use of agro-chemicals, forest encroachment, and so on).

Spatially-Explicit Assessment of Carbon Stocks in the Landscape in the Southern Us Under Different Scenarios of Industrial Wood Pellet Demand

Spatially-Explicit Assessment of Carbon Stocks in the Landscape in the Southern Us Under Different Scenarios of Industrial Wood Pellet Demand

Driving investments in ore beneficiation and scrap upgrading to meet an increased demand from the direct reduction-EAF route

The pressure on the steel industry to reduce its carbon footprint has led to discussions to replace coke as the main reductant for iron ore and turn to natural gas, bio-syngas or hydrogen. Such a major transition from the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace route, to the direct reduction-electric arc furnace route, for steel production would drastically increase the demand for both suitable iron ore pellets and high-quality scrap. The value for an EAF plant to reduce the SiO2 content in DRI by 2 percentage points and the dirt content of scrap by 0.3 percentage points Si was estimated by using the optimization and calculation tool RAWMATMIX®. Three plant types were studied: (i) an integrated plant using internal scrap, (ii) a plant using equal amounts of scrap and DRI and (iii) a plant using a smaller fraction of DRI in relation to the scrap amount. Also, the slag volume for each plant type was studied. Finally, the cost for upgrading was estimated based on using mainly heuristic values. A conservative estimation of the benefit of decreasing the silica content in DRI from 4 to 2% is 20 USD/t DRI or 15 USD/t DR pellets and a conservative figure for the benefit of decreasing the dirt in scrap by 0.3 percentage points Si is 9 USD/t scrap. An estimate on the costs for the necessary ore beneficiation is 2.5 USD/t pellet concentrate and for a scrap upgrade, it is 1-2 USD/t scrap.

When Biomass Electricity Demand Prompts Thinnings in Southern US Pine Plantations: A Forest Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Case Study

Increasing demand for woody biomass-derived electricity in the UK and elsewhere has resulted in a rapidly expanding wood pellet manufacturing industry in the southern US. Since this demand is driven by climate concerns and an objective to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the electricity sector, it is crucial to understand the full carbon consequences of wood pellet sourcing, processing, and utilization. We performed a comparative carbon life cycle assessment (LCA) for pellets sourced from three mills in the southern US destined for electricity generation in the UK. The baseline assumptions included GHG emissions of the UK’s 2018 and 2025 target electricity grid mix and feedstock supplied primarily from non-industrial private forest (NIPF) pine plantations augmented with a fraction of sawmill residues. Based on regional expert input, we concluded that forest management practices on the NIPF pine plantations would include timely thinning harvest treatments in the presence of pellet demand. The LCA analysis included landscape carbon stock changes based on USDA Forest Service Forest Vegetation Simulator using current USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data as the starting condition of supply areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. We found that GHG emission parity (i.e., the time when accumulated carbon GHG emissions for the bioenergy scenario equal the baseline scenario) is more than 40 years for pellets produced at each individual pellet mill and for all three pellet mills combined when compared to either the UK’s 2018 electricity grid mix or the UK’s targeted electricity grid mix in 2025. The urgency to mitigate climate change with near-term actions as well as increasing uncertainty with longer-term simulations dictated a focus on the next four decades in the analysis. Even at 50% sawmill residues, GHG emission parity was not reached during the 40 years modeled. Results are most likely conservative since we assume a high share of sawmill residues (ranging from 20 to 50%) and did not include limited hardwood feedstocks as reported in the supply chain which are generally associated with delayed GHG emission parity because of lower growth rates.

Experimental studies of burning plant pellets in a domestic boiler

In recent years, biofuels have increasingly been used as fuel in Ukraine. Ukraine is an agro-industrial country with great potential for the production and use of pellets of plant origin. Our country ranks 6th in the world for the production of such biofuels as pellets, but most of them (about 85 %) are exported abroad. This is due to the low demand for pellets in the domestic market. Cereal straw can be used in municipal energy. The amount of straw left after harvest is sufficient for its use as fuel. This biofuel in its composition and calorific value is close to such traditional fuels as wood and peat. Also, raw materials for bio-pellets can be sunflower husks and energy crops. The main objectives of this work are experimental studies of the combustion of different types of agropellets. An experimental installation of a solid fuel boiler with a pellet burner was developed and implemented at the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine to study the peculiarities of pellet combustion. With the help of the developed measurement system based on a comb with thermocouples, which is located above the torch in the boiler, the temperature regime in the boiler volume was studied and the peculiarities of the pellet burning process in the burner were determined. As a result of the work, experimental studies of the peculiarities of burning pellets of agricultural origin, namely straw (barley, wheat) and pellets from corn cobs were carried out. On the basis of the constructed graphic dependences the characteristic features of temperature modes of work of a household copper at burning of agropellets were defined. The use of the results is possible in the communal and industrial heat energy, social and budgetary sphere and individual household sector.

Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Bioenergy Production from Different Wood Pellet Supply Chains

The EU is one of the largest producers and consumers of wood pellets in the world, covering around 36% of the global wood pellet production and around 50% of the global consumption in 2018. The EU wood pellet consumption is expected to further increase in response to the ambitious energy and climate goals for 2030. Currently, wood pellets are mainly produced from sawdust and other sawmill residues; however, other types of forest feedstock are being investigated in order to meet the increasing wood pellet demand and move toward greater energy independence. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the environmental impact of different wood pellet supply chains. A comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment is performed considering the following wood feedstock systems: (i) sawdust from sawmill (S1), (ii) roundwood logs (S2), (iii) whole trees from forest thinning operation (S3), and (iv) logging residues produced during forest tree harvesting (S4). The study focuses on Global Warming Potential (GWP), Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP), Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential (POCP), and Human Toxicity Potential (HTP). Results show that S3 displays the lowest figures on all the environmental impact categories considered in this study. Compared to the reference case S1, S3 shows a GWP reduction of 46%, an ODP reduction of 6.6%, a POCP reduction of 14.8%, and HTP reduction of 13.2%. S3 and S4 have lower GWP than S1 and S2, even when the biogenic CO2 emissions are considered. Overall, the life cycle phases that have the highest GWP, POCP, and HTP are the burning phase and the preparation of the material to be pelletized, particularly the drying process. Nevertheless, the main phases that contribute to the ODP are the forest operations and the pellet preparation.

Lignin: a valuable feedstock for biomass pellet

Pelletization and briquettization have been extensively used for mass and energy densification of biomass. As the demand for pellets increases, the biorefinery waste lignin can be used with the conventional raw materials for pellet preparation. Sugarcane bagasse (20-40 mesh) is treated with NaOH (8% & 16%) for bioethanol production and obtained lignin is used to prepare pellet along and with sugarcane bagasse (SB). SB, Lignin1 (8% NaOH treated SB), Lignin2 (16% NaOH treated SB) and various composition of SB and Lignin1 were used to produce pelletswith different applied pressures (5kN, 10kN, 15kN and 20kN). Pellet density and heating value were gradually increase with the applied pelletization pressure. Among the samples Lignin1 showed highest heating value at 20kN (3581.54 kcal/kg). Results revealed that 5kN is enough to produce pellet from different composition of SB and Lignin1 and the pellet composition of SB (40%) and Lignin1(60%) showed the highest heating value (3456.21 kcal/kg).
 Bangladesh J. Sci. Ind. Res.55(1), 83-88, 2020

Mixed biomass pelleting potential for Portugal, step forward to circular use of biomass residues

Densification of the biomass residues as an efficient method to produce a renewable and CO2 neutral energy resource has been in consideration in recent years. However, according to a recent boost in the European wood pellet demand, the importance of R&D studies for substitution and enhancement of current raw materials for pelleting purposes has been increased. A large amount of annual garden waste and agricultural residues in Portugal causes that so-called Mixed Biomass Pelleting (MBP) method becomes a promising approach of the future that by closing the cycles in the agro-economic environments of Portugal, enhances the socio-economic conditions in the rural areas. This itself will have one more important consequence of wildfire prevention in the Portuguese forests. This work as a subset of a broader study that aims to develop an evaluation tool for circular economies will cover the information required for a techno-economic analysis of mixed biomass pelleting by a review on potential assessment methods, a rough-cut assessment of agro-residues potential for Portugal and gathering the required information about pellets origin, characteristics and legislative frames.

The Wood Pellet Sector: Barriers to Growth and Opinions of Manufacturers in Poland

Biomass is a major source of renewable energy in the EU and Poland, stimulating the growth of the wood pellet sector. Wood pellet demand is stimulated by a complex interaction of market forces and policies including EU climate, energy, and environmental regulations, Poland’s program to improve air quality, and subsidies for the replacement of inefficient stoves used by households. This article focuses on the growth of the wood pellet industry, imports and exports in Poland, and wood pellet quality and use by households. The main issues faced by the EU wood pellet sector between 2013 and 2016 are further considered in the context of opinions of Polish wood pellet manufacturers. Industry opinions were collected in response to an open-ended question that probed for the main issues faced by wood pellet producers during the survey implemented by the authors in 2019. Respondents identified difficulties in obtaining raw material for pellet production and poor pellet quality as major problems. Although the majority did not feel concerned about competition from imported wood pellets, a small number of respondents viewed such competition as a problem reflecting the reversal of decreasing imports in 2017. Overall, the domestic wood pellet industry can be expected to grow because of increasing pressure to expand the use of renewable energy and will be driven by the household sector switching to more efficient, wood burning stoves. Additionally, the expanding area of private Polish forests may become a source of much-needed raw material for wood pellet manufacturing.

Opportunities and attitudes of private forest landowners in supplying woody biomass for renewable energy

Woody biomass has been identified as a source of dispatchable, renewable energy. Private lands supply the majority of the wood-based pellets that is produced in the southeastern United States (SE US) and shipped to countries in the European Union (EU) for energy generation. To assess the perspectives of potential suppliers of woody biomass in the SE US, nonindustrial private forest landowners were surveyed in the fuelsheds of the two primary ports for wood pellets exported to the EU. The survey assessed owners' characteristics, attitudes, and future management plans. Survey results were examined to explore the relationships among these factors and owners' intentions for providing material for wood-based energy. The results indicate that forest landowners have multiple reasons for maintaining their forest land, with more than 40% of the owners ranking timber production as a very important reason. Furthermore, the majority of landowners would be willing to provide woody biomass for producing bioenergy. Among factors that would enhance landowners' willingness to provide woody biomass for energy, technical assistance to improve stand productivity and future value was the most popular option, followed by reducing fire and disease risk, long-term markets, and high prices. Landowner willingness to provide woody material for bioenergy also varied depending on demographics including age and gender, property characteristics including holding size and distance to residence, and perceptions regarding the impact on forest value of wood pellet demand and the viability of bioenergy as an alternative to fossil energy.

Повышение производительности дробильно-обогатительной фабрики на основе оптимизационной модели

Due to the fact that the demand for iron-ore pellets in the Russian and international markets is high, the task of increasing the volume of iron-ore concentrate production while providing required quality is urgent. The paper sets a general engineering-and-economical target to improve crushing and ore beneficiation plant (CBP) operation by the criterion of maximum marginal profit of the enterprise. The task is solved by observing technological constraints according to the regime of the technological unit operation, type of the produced concentrate, the provision of the required quality of the concentrate at the end of the process, the equipment configuration and other parameters. The specific task of increasing efficiency of the technological unit of the CBP by means of optimization of the equipment operation has been thoroughly considered. Traditionally such tasks are solved by applying a physical and chemical model coupled with experimental research of the technological process. The paper presents the approach based on the application of the optimization mathematical model, developed using intellectual analysis of statistical data – Data Mining. To develop the model, the method of decision tree was used. The search method is used to find the best decision in terms of the chosen criterion. Modelling results in evaluation of the unit efficiency depending on the influence of an input controlling factor, parameters of the base ore, as well as technological constraints. A methodological example of applying the model of control over the technological process of ironore concentrate production at the technological unit of the grinding and pellet plant with the increased efficiency of up to 7% was provided. Practical implementation of the proposed approach will allow the operator to obtain recommendations about correcting the control parameters of the technological equipment operation using the existing automated control system in a real time mode at the unit of the DOF, taking into account current conditions of the technological process.

Impact of increased wood pellet demand on biodiversity in the south‐eastern United States

AbstractIncreasing wood pellet exports from the United States are projected to lead to changes in land use and timberland management, including a shift from natural timberland to pine plantations. These projected changes may impact biodiversity. This study aims to quantify potential biodiversity impacts of increased wood pellet demand in the south‐eastern United States in a spatially explicit manner. We determined differences according to an index of potential species richness (for total, threatened and endemic species and four taxonomic groups) between scenarios of high and low demand for wood pellets, while taking into account potential developments in other wood markets and other land uses. Increased demand for wood pellets was projected to cause both positive and negative biodiversity impacts. Negative shifts in total potential species richness were projected for areas in Florida, coastal Virginia and North Carolina, and parts of the Gulf Coast. Positive shifts in total potential species richness were projected in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. In some locations, the direction of change differed per taxonomic group, highlighting the importance of analysing different taxonomic groups. Shifts in potential species richness due to increased wood pellet demand were considerably smaller compared to the changes due to other drivers, such as urbanization and increased timber demand. Biodiversity impacts due to wood pellet demand should therefore be considered in the context of other drivers of land‐use change and biodiversity loss. Our results provide information that allows policymakers, industry and NGOs to focus on areas of concern and take appropriate mitigation measures to limit negative biodiversity impacts and promote positive impacts. The spatially explicit approach presented in this study can be applied to different regions and drivers of land‐use change, to show how projected demand for an internationally traded commodity may lead to impacts on land use and biodiversity in the procurement region.

Projecting Land Use Changes by Integrating Site Suitability Analysis with Historic Land Use Change Dynamics in the Context of Increasing Demand for Wood Pellets in the Southern United States

Rising export of wood pellets from southern United States would bring more land under loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) at the expense of other competitive land uses. We developed an approach to project potential changes in existing land uses by integrating site suitability analysis with historical land use dynamics in a watershed located within Oconee River Basin, Georgia, United States. We developed a GIS-based site suitability model to classify land into three categories (High, Medium, and Low) for loblolly pine. Then, we calculated historical rates of land use changes in the selected watershed. Finally, we integrated the output of suitability analysis with the projected rates of land use changes under the two scenarios of wood pellet demand (High and Low) to determine an increase in area under loblolly pine for 2016, 2021, and 2026 in a spatially explicit manner. Relative to 2011, the combined changes in the shrubland and evergreen forest land cover categories under High Demand scenario were 7.6, 14.6, and 21.1% and under Low Demand scenario were 3.8, 7.5, and 11.1% for the years 2016, 2021, and 2026, respectively. The developed approach could be applied in a relatively short time at modest spatial scales. The outputs of this study can also be used to determine the environmental implications of land use changes for ensuring the overall sustainability of wood-based bioenergy development in the United States and beyond.