Currency Demand Research Articles

Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries

In this article, we analyze whether shadow economic activity has had a measurable influence on the demand for M1 and currency in a cross section of OECD countries since the 1970s. Since shadow economic activity is not directly observable, we use several indicator variables that are positively related to shadow economic activity. We find that, indeed, some of these variables have had a significant influence on M1 money and currency demand in OECD countries over the last decades. Our results indicate that the omission of unofficial activities leads to a considerable overestimation of the income elasticity and the interest semi-elasticity of M1 and currency demand. Measuring accurately the size of shadow economic activity is therefore an important task for central banks to determine the optimal stock of money.

Estimation of the Size of Indonesia's Shadow Economy

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Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?

The standard approach adopted in the literature exploits data on money demand to extrapolate the dynamics of the unobserved economic activity. In this paper, we explore instead the long-run effects of shadow economy measures—obtained independently from money demand functions—on the velocity of circulation of money. Empirical evidence from a panel covering 43 countries over the period 1981–2005 shows that variations in the relative size of the unrecorded sector have a negative and significant effect on the velocity of circulation of money. This is because, ceteris paribus, the higher the share of the shadow economy, the higher the demand for currency and therefore the lower the velocity of circulation of money. The negative relation between underground economic activity and velocity of circulation of money is robust to the use of different shadow economy estimates, to a sub-sample analysis and to the inclusion of a time trend.

Modelling banknote printing costs: of cohorts, generations, and note-years

Menzies (2004) uses a ‘cohorts approach’ to model banknote printing costs. This paper proposes a ‘generational approach’ that allows for more realistic assumptions concerning currency growth and note replacement. The paper shows that Menzies' claim that the case for polymer banknotes becomes stronger with higher currency demand is an artefact of his model. In most scenarios, the number of notes in circulation does not affect the relative cost effectiveness of paper and polymer; and when it does, the impact goes in the other direction. A second finding is that the ‘note life over unit-cost rule of thumb’ can be misleading.

Measuring the informal economy in South Africa

Measuring the size of the South African informal economy has received inadequate attention, making it difficult for policy-makers to assess the impact of policy measures to stimulate informal economic activity. This article aims to estimate the size of the informal economy by using the Currency Demand Approach. The empirical results reveal that the informal economy as a percentage of GDP decreased from 1967 to 1993, before levelling off. The growth in the informal econmy has also underperformed in comparison to formal economic growth. There appears to be a causal relationship running from the informal to the formal economy. Macro-economic policies aimed at the formal economy will not necessarily 'trickle down' to the informal, while these polcies aimed at the informal economy may have a profound effect on the formal economy.

Analyzing the Impact of Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate on Inflation: Short Empirical Study for the Romanian Economy

This paper aims to analyze the impact of Gross Domestic Product growth rate on inflation in Romanian economy for time series data between 2000 and 2013. The research methodology used is the method of least squares and the results show that there is a strong relationship between the two variables. Also there are other factors that may impact on the evolution of inflation (unemployment rate, the reference interest rates, supply and demand for currency, etc.), factors that I will consider in a future analysis.

Editors’ Introduction

Editors’ Introduction

Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries

The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.

Revisiting the Concept of Dollarization: The Global Financial Crisis and Dollarization in Low-Income Countries

The economic literature has examined deposit dollarization in nominal terms, typically focusing on the ratio of foreign currency deposits to broad money. However, while private agent demand for foreign currency may remain unchanged in foreign currency terms, there could be large fluctuations in the dollarization ratio simply due to exchange rate movements. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring dollarization that removes these exchange rate effects, and demonstrates that beyond the variance of inflation and depreciation, the level of inflation and size of depreciation also matter for dollarization. While dollarization in nominal terms surged during the recent global financial crisis, there was a downward trend in real terms. Employing a set of econometric estimators, this paper investigates whether “real” dollarization during 2006–09 was associated with the crisis, and the role of initial macroeconomic conditions, quality of institutions, risk aversion, and prudential measures. We find that exchange rate appreciation and reductions in sovereign risk do moderate dollarization; but the results for global volatility have low statistical significance, perhaps because global shocks tend to preserve, to a large extent, relative attractiveness of foreign assets. Nonetheless, estimated impulse-response functions point to a large but short-lived positive impact of global volatility on dollarization, which could reflect economic agents heightened concerns about spillover effects of global uncertainty on the domestic economy.

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

We document that a trading strategy that is short the U.S. dollar and long other currencies exhibits significantly larger excess returns on days with scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements. We also show that these excess returns (i) are higher for currencies with higher interest rate differentials vis-a-vis the U.S.; (ii) increase with uncertainty about monetary policy; and (iii) intensify when the Federal Reserve adopts a policy of monetary easing. We interpret these excess returns as a compensation for monetary policy uncertainty within a parsimonious model of constrained financiers who intermediate global demand for currencies.

Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies

It is most likely that the current reserve currencies will retain their status in the near future, given the persistence in the composition of reserve holdings. However, since we do not have complete data on the switchovers in lead reserve currencies, a great deal of uncertainty attends any forecasts. Hence, it is possible that new reserve currencies might appear with greater rapidity than anticipated. Of the candidates for new reserve currencies among the major emerging economies, the renminbi (RMB) is the most plausible. However, even under optimistic assumptions regarding economic growth and financial development, RMB status as a major reserve currency is some time off. A role for regional reserve currency status in the near future is much more likely. The advent of a multi-reserve currency world is unlikely to have negative consequences for global financial stability (and might be stability-enhancing). However, achieving the prerequisites for reserve currency status will force sacrifices in terms of policy autonomy. In addition, reserve currency status might reduce international competitiveness for individual countries, as higher currency demand appreciates their currencies.

Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments, Currency Demand, and Withdrawal Behavior

This paper provides one explanation why cash is still used for transactions despite a broad diffusion of noncash payment instruments. In particular, we argue that a distinctive feature of cash—a glance into one's pocket gives a signal of the remaining budget and past expenses—provides utility to some consumers. Using payment survey data, we show that consumers who need to keep control over their remaining liquidity and who have elevated costs of information processing conduct a larger percentage of payments using cash, withdraw less often, and hold larger cash balances than other consumers.

A graceful return of the drachma

A country participating in a monetary union is constrained by loss of control over seigniorage revenue. Once the government reaches its fiscal limit on ordinary taxation, it cannot turn to seigniorage for financing. We show that a monetary union country can increase its seigniorage revenue by reissuing its own currency even as it fully honors all outstanding debt obligations. We use a simple cash-in-advance model, with domestic currency demand motivated by the need to pay taxes, to show that this policy effectively redistributes seigniorage revenue away from other monetary union members toward the acting country. The magnitude of the seigniorage created by currency reissue is limited both by the relative size of the country and by money demand, and, therefore, by the tax base. If this seigniorage revenue is insufficient, some additional seigniorage is available by allowing the new currency to grow and depreciate over time and domestic real wages to fall.

Currency demand, new technology, and the adoption of electronic money: Micro evidence from Japan

We estimate currency demand functions conditional on electronic money adoption with household-level survey data from Japan under an Instrumental Quantile Regression framework. Contrary to theoretical predictions, our results suggest that users of electronic money hold more currency than non-users.

An Empirical Estimation of the Underground Economy in Ghana

The main aim of this paper is to estimate the size of the underground economy in Ghana during the period 1983–2003. There is no agreement on the appropriate estimation approach to adopt to measure the size of the underground activities. To this end, we employ the well-applied currency demand approach in our measurement. Parameter estimates from the estimated currency demand equation are used in quantifying the ratio of “underground” to “measured” output/income for the Ghanaian economy. The estimated long-run average size of the underground economy to GDP for Ghana over the period is 40%. The underground economy is found to vary from a high of 54% in 1985 to a low of 25% in 1999. Estimates may represent lower bound estimates.

The Size of Underground Economy in Albania

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the size of the underground sector of the economy in Albania by using the Indirect Approach - Currency Demand Approach. A few studies have tried estimate the size of the informal economy in Albania in the previous years and there’s no evidence of recent estimates of informality. Also, there are some other available studies which give some point assessments of informality in Albania but without information on its development over time. Using indirect measurement approaches we found that the size of the underground economy still accounts for a large share to GDP, but there is a decrease in size on the last years. This may be the result of vast reforms and a formalization process undertaken by the Albanian governments over time. Despite these results, it’s important to highlight the fact that the average ratio of the underground economy to GDP presents a declining trend over the period 1998 – 2013. DOI: 10.5901/ajis.2014.v3n4p503

THE DEMAND FOR CURRENCY IN MALTA

This article studies the demand for one particular component of the money stock, currency, in Malta in the light of the existing theoretical and empirical frameworks. In particular, it argues that the commonly applied analytical framework needs to be tweaked slightly for it to explain better the reasons underpinning the relatively high currency demand in Malta compared with other euro area countries. In particular, the presence of a large tourism sector is likely to be boosting demand beyond what one would expect. Similarly the presence of a significant shadow economy appears to be exerting some influence on the magnitude of currency holdings. That said, this study suggests that there is scope for a number of policies which could lead to lower demand for notes, particularly measures to facilitate the use of electronic means of payment and efforts to discourage the shadow economy.

Urgent Issues in Maintaining the Stability of the National Currency System

Development of the national monetary system necessitates the ensuring of stability of the national monetary system. This is explained by the fact that the national currency system has a direct impact on the competitiveness of the national economy, on the export potential of the country and the living standard of the population. Appreciation of the real exchange rate would cause the rising of export cost and artificially overvalued exchange rate will provoke the emergence of excessive demand for foreign currencies in the country. Moreover, relatively high devaluation level of national currency would negatively affect the efficiency of financed investment projects. This article analyzes the current state of monetary system of the Republic of Uzbekistan, identifies the current problems and proposes scientific and practical solutions to identified problems. In particular, the author justifies the need for the transfer of all foreign exchange reserves of the state to the balance sheet of the Central Bank with the right to self& governance within the fr amework of monetary policy. Increasing the diversification level of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank is proposed by restructuring the currency framework of external debt of the Government of Uzbekistan.

Official FX interventions through derivatives

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.

Payment Choice and the Future of Currency: Insights from Two Billion Retail Transactions

This paper uses transaction-level data from a large discount chain together with zip-code-level explanatory variables to learn about consumer payment choices across size of transaction, location, and time. With three years of data from thousands of stores across the country, we identify important economic and demographic effects; weekly, monthly, and seasonal cycles in payments, as well as time trends and significant state-level variation that is not accounted for by the explanatory variables. We use the estimated model to forecast how the mix of consumer payments will evolve and to forecast future demand for currency. Our estimates based on this large retailer, together with forecasts for the explanatory variables, lead to a benchmark prediction that the cash share of retail sales will decline by 2.54 percentage points per year over the next several years.