Demand Contraction Research Articles

Financial Sector Reforms and Inflation-Growth Nexus

In the 1980s, Pakistan's financial reforms reduced central bank borrowing, raising government debt and tax collection needs. In this context, the conventional approach to evaluating the costs and benefits of low inflation proves inadequate. The sacrifice ratio (SR) focuses on demand contraction's impact on economic activity and fails to capture the true costs of inflation by overlooking the supply-side effects of reduced fiscal space. This study re-evaluates the SR, accounting for both the demand contraction channel and the long-term supply side impact of diminished fiscal space. We hypothesize that the cumulative costs outweigh the long-term benefits of price stability. By incorporating fiscal space scenarios into the time-series model for SR estimation; our results indicate an SR approximately double that found in earlier studies. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating fiscal implications into monetary policy decisions to support sustainable economic growth.

Development of a Cost-Driven, Real-Time Management Strategy for e-Mobility Hubs Including Islanded Operation

The installation of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) increases demand and peak loads, potentially straining existing energy distribution infrastructure. Dispersed and inadequately planned placement of charging points (CPs) can disrupt the electrical grid, surpass contracted demand thresholds, and require infrastructure upgrades, thereby incurring unfeasible costs for Distribution System Operators (DSOs). In this context, it is necessary to recognize the role of business models in enabling effective electrification of the transportation sector. In response to these challenges, this paper introduces a novel e-mobility hub management strategy, tailored for implementation in the Brazilian context. The proposed strategy revolves around a microgrid configuration encompassing dispatchable and photovoltaic generation, a battery energy storage system (BESS), EVSE infrastructure, and local loads. Moreover, this centralized controller facilitates the implementation of dynamic pricing and demand-response mechanisms, integral to business models seeking to integrate EVSE into the distribution grid. To validate the efficacy of the proposed solution, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations of the microgrid system are conducted. These simulations, incorporating the centralized controller, serve as a tool for assessing system performance and viability before on-site equipment deployment. Finally, this paper concludes with the insights gleaned from test analysis and its discussion through a selection of the most expressive scenarios, including islanded and connected operation modes.

The relationship between workplace justice and self-evaluated nonfatal occupational accidents among healthcare employees in Taiwan: An observational study.

The relationship between workplace justice and nonfatal occupational accidents in a single-payer healthcare system has rarely been explored. As countries strive to achieve and sustain universal health coverage, healthcare workers' occupational safety and health require greater concerns. We used the data from a national survey conducted on randomly sampled Taiwanese workers. One hundred forty eight males and 567 females, with a total of 715 healthcare workers aged 20 to 65, were analyzed. The workplace scale consisted of 4 subcomponents, including distributive justice, interpersonal justice, information justice, and procedural justice, and was dichotomized into low and high groups in each dimension. Logistic regression models examined the relationship between workplace justice and self-evaluated occupational accidents among healthcare employees. The prevalence of self-evaluated occupational accidents in healthcare employees was 15.54% and 11.64% for men and women, respectively. After adjusting variables such as sociodemographic variables, physical job demands, shift work status, work contract, and psychological job demands, regression analyses indicated that health employees with lower distributive justice, interpersonal justice, information justice, and procedural justice were significantly associated with self-evaluated occupational accidents both in males and females. Expanding the study to include healthcare systems in different countries could enhance the generalizability of the findings. Offering specific recommendations for policymakers and healthcare administrators to improve workplace justice and reduce occupational accidents.

Optimal trend inflation in an open economy

We study the optimal inflation target in an open economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates calibrated to the Euro area. When uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) holds, the optimal inflation target is smaller than in a closed economy. The key to this result is that real interest rates at the ZLB increase less as trade openness increases. This less pronounced increase in real interest rates in an open economy mitigates the contraction in aggregate demand, thus reducing the cost of ZLB. Additionally, the optimal inflation target in a monetary union is lower than in a flexible exchange rate regime: forming a monetary union results in a decrease in the optimal inflation rate by 0.24%, thereby increasing per-period welfare by 0.07%. When departures from UIP are significant, the optimal inflation target may be higher than in a closed economy, and the desirability of a monetary union increases further.

Demand for Commitment in Credit and Saving Contracts: A Field Experiment

Abstract We conduct a field experiment in which we offer credit and saving contracts to the same pool of Pakistani microfinance clients. Additional treatments test ex ante demand for soft commitment (in the form of reminders, either to respondents or to their families), hard commitment (in the form of a penalty for missing an instalment) and flexibility (an option to postpone an instalment) to save or pay loan instalments on time. We find substantial demand for fixed repayment contracts in both the credit and savings domains, in ways that imply that respondents value the commitment required. While we find little or no average demand for additional contractual features, we nonetheless observe that different combinations of contractual add-ons are preferred depending on the respondent’s level of financial discipline. Respondents with high financial discipline prefer flexibility in credit contracts when combined with reminders to self while those with low discipline value penalties in savings contracts only when paired with reminders. Our results imply that, for the average microfinance client, demand for commitment is met through the regular payment schedule built into standard microcredit or commitment savings contracts. However, combining penalties or flexibility with reminders may appeal to certain subsets of clients.

Optimal wind power capacity decision consider commitment contracts under uncertain power supply and electricity demand in China

China has been introducing reforms in the electricity market. Since 2016, electricity retailers are allowed to operate in the market once monopolized by traditional power companies. This regulatory environment demands new types of purchase contracts to remunerate the energy agents and deliver better prices for consumers fairly and sustainably. This paper proposes two new electricity purchase contracts with risk sharing mechanism and studies on wind power supplier's optimal capacity investment problem under supply and demand uncertainty. Firstly, a basic model for fixed demand contract is developed, and the optimal capacity is obtained. Secondly, the fixed commitment order contract and the forecast order contract with risk sharing mechanism are proposed to manage the fluctuation of wind power supply randomness. With backward induction, the optimal investment capacity of wind power supplier is solved, and then the fixed order quantity or forecast demand quantity of the electricity retailer can be obtained. Our results show that the fixed order quantity may have a positive influence on the wind power supplier's capacity investment decision. While, the forecast order quantity may have a negative influence on the wind power supplier's capacity investment decision. In addition, wind density has a strong influence on wind power capacity investment, and it has a positive impact on wind power supplier's profit, but it does not always have a positive impact on electricity retailer's profit. At last, based on numerical analysis, we examine how the wind density distribution coefficient change affect members' profit in the electricity supply chain. We also find that even with wind curtailment punishment, the forecast order contract can make a Pareto improvement on the whole electricity supply chain.

Sustainable transportation perspective: how our preferences for zero-emission vehicles change through time?

Abstract The Slovenian automobile market has gained great momentum in the past decade. However, the demand contractions in the supply chain created a huge crisis in the automobile industry in Slovenia. The automotive industry's new competitive dynamics focus on green logistics, sustainability, and purchase decisions. The study aims to comparatively analyze the factors affecting consumers' automobile purchasing decisions from a sustainable transportation perspective. In the survey, we included 1502 participants to identify the most important parameters of consumer behaviour related to purchasing alternative fuel vehicles. In the regression analysis results in the first analysis, non-financial factors sub-dimensions such as the body shape and fuel type, vehicle size, and style/appearance/colour had a positive effect on purchasing decisions of zero-emission cars. The second analysis was performed 5 years after the first analysis. Moreover, the findings provide insights that non-financial factors sub-dimensions such as entertainment system, vehicle size, and vehicle capacity and financial factors sub-dimensions between the insurance group for the vehicle, finance deals, value for money, annual road tax had a positive effect on purchasing decisions of zero-emission vehicles in the second analysis. Results show that the most relevant factor for purchasing zero-emission vehicles is total vehicle price and that the segment of potential alternative fuel vehicle consumers is much higher than it has been anticipated. This study provides an overview of the current understanding of individuals' vehicle purchasing decisions.

Correction to: The supply and demand of marital contracts: the case of same‑sex marriage

Correction to: The supply and demand of marital contracts: the case of same‑sex marriage

Technical-economic feasibility of installing a photovoltaic generation plant: a case study in a public university

The energy compensation system has attracted the interest of several sectors, including the public sector. In this context, this work presents a technical dimensioning and techno-economic feasibility of installing a photovoltaic generation plant, considering the service to a Brazilian public university campus. Four systems were designed using NREL's PVWatts and SAM tools with the NSRDB database, analyzing 6 economic viability situations. The results show a payback of 6 years and 3 months for a 545kWp system without energy storage and 10 years and 5 months for a 180kWp system with energy storage. The variations in the results depend on the implementation considerations of each of the proposed systems, such as the energy availability demand contract and the savings on the bill made possible by the implementation method.

The motivating and mobilizing effects of inequality on civil conflict: Focusing on trade-induced labor market shocks

This article has two aims: (1) to identify the causal effect of income inequality on civil conflict and (2) to find the mechanism in which disadvantaged individuals can mobilize collective violence. Applying the Heckscher-Ohlin and Stopler-Samuelson theorems, this study hypothesizes that workers in land-rich countries – those who face contracted demand in the labor market and consequently a larger income disparity – will have a lower opportunity cost to engage in conflict as trade expands. Exploiting exogenous spatial variation in inequality due to the country’s factor endowment, together with time variation in tariffs arising from the economic liberalization, the work of this research documents a statistically significant and economically meaningful causal effect of inequality on civil conflict. Secondly, to identify the mobilizing effect of inequality, I test whether higher disparity in income distribution within an ethnic group breeds more rebellions initiated by the group. Esteban and Ray’s model claims that an increase in income inequality within an ethnic group makes collective violence more likely, because the poor within the group provide conflict labor, and the rich within the group provide resources for violence. By merging international census data that cover 115 million individuals from 221 ethnic groups with the groups’ conflict records, the analysis empirically identifies that when holding total ethnic income constant, within-group inequality that is proxied by the unemployment rate is strongly correlated with the group’s propensity to initiate armed conflicts. Shedding new light on the prevailing scholarly discord that exclusively chooses either one of class and ethnic cleavages as sources of intrastate violence, the findings of this study imply that if trade-induced labor market shocks increase within-group inequality, it motivates workers to participate in rebellions by lowering their opportunity cost of fighting and mobilizes ethnic collective violence by allowing the ethnic leaders to recruit combatants at a lower cost.

Analysis of factors affecting college students' employment in post-epidemic era and policy suggestions

In the post-epidemic period, with the global economic downturn, the employment concept and employment planning of college graduates have also changed under the influence of factors such as the expansion of the scale of college graduates, the contraction of labor demand and the deterioration of employment stability. The employment situation of college graduates is becoming more complex and severe. Based on the survey of college students in Nanjing Audit University, this paper analyzes the employment situation of college graduates at the present stage, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the employment of college graduates in the post-epidemic era.

Demand-Side Management Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms: A Case Study

This paper addresses the optimization of contracted electricity demand (CD) for commercial and industrial entities, focusing on cost reduction within the Brazilian time-of-use electricity tariff scheme. Leveraging genetic algorithms (GAs), this study proposes a practical approach to determining the optimal CD profile, considering the complex dynamics of energy demand on a city-like load. The methodology is applied to a case study at the Federal University of Pará, Brazil, where energy efficiency and demand response initiatives as well as renewable energy projects are underway. The findings highlight the significance of tailored demand management strategies in achieving energy-related cost reduction for large-scale consumers, with implications for economic efficiency in energy consumption.

Techno-economic feasibility of installing a photovoltaic power plant: a case study at a public university

The energy compensation system has attracted the interest of several sectors, including the public sector. In this context, this work presents a technical dimensioning and techno-economic feasibility of installing a photovoltaic generation plant, considering the service to a Brazilian public university campus. Four systems were designed using NREL's PVWatts and SAM tools with the NSRDB database, analyzing 6 economic viability situations. The results show a payback of 6 years and 3 months for a 545kWp system without energy storage and 10 years and 5 months for a 180kWp system with energy storage. The variations in the results depend on the implementation considerations of each of the proposed systems, such as the energy availability demand contract and the savings on the bill made possible by the implementation method.

Drebrin is Required for Myosin-facilitated Actin Cytoskeletal Remodeling during Pulmonary Alveolar Development.

Alveolar septation increases gas-exchange surface area and requires coordinated cytoskeletal rearrangement in lung fibroblasts (LFs) to balance the demands of contraction and cell migration. We hypothesized that DBN (drebrin), a modulator of the actin cytoskeleton in neuronal dendrites, regulates the remodeling of the LF cytoskeleton. Using mice bearing a transgelin-Cre-targeted deletion of Dbn in pulmonary fibroblasts and pericytes, we examined alterations in alveolar septal outgrowth, LF spreading and migration, and actomyosin function. The alveolar surface area and number of alveoli were reduced, whereas alveolar ducts were enlarged, in mice bearing the dbn deletion (DBNΔ) compared with their littermates bearing only one dbn-Flox allele (control). Cultured DBNΔ LFs were deficient in their responses to substrate rigidity and migrated more slowly. Drebrin was abundant in the actin cortex and lamella, and the actin fiber orientation was less uniform in lamella of DBNΔ LFs, which limited the development of traction forces and altered focal adhesion dynamics. Actin fiber orientation is regulated by contractile NM2 (nonmuscle myosin-2) motors, which help arrange actin stress fibers into thick ventral actin stress fibers. Using fluorescence anisotropy, we observed regional intracellular differences in myosin regulatory light chain phosphorylation in control LFs that were altered by dbn deletion. Using perturbations to induce and then release stalling of NM2 on actin in LFs from both genotypes, we made predictions explaining how DBN interacts with actin and NM2. These studies provide new insight for diseases such as emphysema and pulmonary fibrosis, in which fibroblasts inappropriately respond to mechanical cues in their environment.

Identification of potential users of photovoltaic conversion

The growing demand for electricity resulted from the continuous technical progress and its disturbing impacts on the environment motivate the search for technological alternatives for sustainable energy generation. The power consumption changes from consumer to consumer and depends on the nature of the activity it performs. In general, activities of trade and industry consume more energy during business hours while residential buildings do at dusk and at night. With the exception of Saturdays, Sundays and holidays, period of greatest consumption of electricity in Rio de Janeiro is between 17h30 and 20h30. In summer months, the intensive use of air conditioning anticipates peak hours for 14h00. When technically possible, the use of photovoltaic conversion in these peak times, therefore, constitutes a smart strategy for load shifting the peak hours to off-peak for large consumers with contract demand in medium and high voltage. This alternative has two impacts: it relieves the systems at peak times and allows the utility to defer investments in their installed infrastructure. This paper, while discussing the technical conditions and the benefits of using photovoltaic systems in Brazil, proposes a method to identify, based on local solarimetric conditions, the photovoltaic conversion potential users.

Order assignment and two-stage integrated scheduling in fruit and vegetable supply chains

Fruit and vegetable supply chains require tight integration due to freshness-keeping requirements during the post-harvest, production, and distribution stages. This paper addresses the scheduling problem of a two-stage flow shop in the fruit and vegetable supply chain involving procurement, production, distribution, and order assignment. The supply chain consists of contract growers, processors, and demand points. Growers and processors maintain limited capacity. Growers have processing lines to sort and grade fruits and vegetables, which are then shipped to processors for further processing. The first stage of the problem involves determining the production and distribution schedules of growers to processors. The second stage concerns assigning demand points to processors, scheduling production at processors, and distributing from processors to demand points. This paper considers its two sub-problems and proposes a mixed-integer linear programming problem: growers’ and processors’ production and distribution scheduling with order assignment. Also, we present two respective strongly polynomial algorithms for solving the two sub-problems. Besides, we develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm for the integrated problem by solving sub-problems together. We conduct computational experiments to justify the proposed algorithms and integration value. Computational results reveal that the proposed algorithms outperform the CPLEX on large-scale problem instances. Finally, we analyze the impacts of waste reduction, unit processing time and cost, and inbound and outbound shipping rates on supply chain performance, along with managerial insights.

VALUATION OF CONTRACT DEMAND VOLUME OF NEW GENERATION PRODUCT (NGP) CAVITY FILTER CIGARETTE PROJECT USING INCOME APPROACH IN CIGARETTE FILTER COMPANY (PT CFC)

PT CFC, a cigarette filter manufacturer, sells the latest patent productcapsule cavity sensation filter to MNC Korea's cigarette factory. MNC delivered latestview forecast demand contract, of 356.75 million cigarette filters in totals, periodJanuary 2023 to July 2024, which to be marketed in Asia and the Commonwealth ofIndependent State (CIS) countries. Hence, to decide the feasibility of the project,requires research and analysis whether the project is profitable or detrimental.Objective of this research are to assist PT CFC in taking decision of those aboveproject, by using 2 approach methods, 1). Project Management, aiming to get an initialoutlay . 2). Financial Valuation through income approaches (Initial Outlay, cash flow,terminal cash flow, working capital, PP, IRR and NPV). From the research study, theInitial Outlay it cost GBP 1,552,410 which generating from project managementthrough LM (logic Model), WBS (work Breakdown Structure) and AP (ActivityPlan)). Annual cash flow will be minus at the 1year of project started, by GBP 185K, but in the 2nd year positive of GBP 832K, overall project during contractdemand period will positive of GBP 647K and terminal cash flow at the end of theproject delivered GBP 1.471K. By using CAPM method PT CFC required return18.01%, contribute from risk free return 3,509%, beta coefficient 1.27, and anannualized return 15%. Capital structure, planned and decided to using 100% equity,which resulting of WACC 18.01%. According to above data, financial valuation couldbe define, the Payback Period achieved 1.2 years. Internal Rate of Return counted350% higher compare to WACC 18.01%. Net present value positive of GBP 1.739K.Hence refers to valuation parameter above concluded that, the project investment wasfeasible and can be continued into project execution.

THE EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE PANDEMIC PERIOD ON WOMEN THROUGH A FOCUS GROUP STUDY

Women have faced more difficulties than men in all the past centuries. In the last decade, although many steps have been taken to ensure equality between men and women, this gap has still not been fully closed. 
 After the announcement of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020, many countries around the world have introduced restrictive rules and measures to reduce the spread of the infection. 
 The sudden supply and demand contractions that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic process directly affected the economies and the health systems of the world deeply. One of the biggest effects of the pandemic was on women, especially in the lockdown periods domestic violence and sexual abuse towards women increased.
 This article has been prepared under the pandevita project with the aim of minimizing the effects of pandemic on women for the similar situations in the future by showing the negativities experienced by women, from 5 systems of the quintuple helix collaboration model, through examples discussed in the focus group event. The paper identifies and brings solutions and suggestions, for women in the finance and labour market, decision-making processes, domestic work, who were very adversely affected after the first wave of the pandemic.

The crisis of the US military-industrial complex — experience of overcoming

The use of effective methods of anti-crisis management is extremely important for the modern economy, science, military-industrial complex, which in most countries suffer from breaks in supply chains and the sanctions crisis. The use of foreign experience, which has proven itself in practice, will allow you to get results faster than using your own «trial and error» approach. The effective experience of anti-crisis management of the US military-industrial complex under the conditions of contraction of domestic demand in the 1990s seems to be extremely promising for spreading to broad areas of developed and developing economies. Understanding this success, analyzing the conditions that preceded it, adapting the results of the analysis to national realities — all this will allow the country applying this experience to more effectively withstand the crisis. The analysis presented in the article allows us to conclude that the US military-industrial complex crisis of the 1990s is associated with the reduction of excessive funding of the 80s to the usual level of the Cold War. It has been determined that even a return to such a «commonness» led to a number of financial problems in the American military-industrial complex. It led to a reduction in personnel and production capacity, the threat of loss of competencies and technologies. The article analyzes in detail the measures taken by the US government and the management of private companies, which made it possible to bring the US military-industrial complex out of this crisis. A diagram of the relationship between these measures is presented. The results of the analysis can be applied far beyond the sphere of the military-industrial complex — in the development of science, civil industry, and the innovative sector of the economy.

Metabolic Remodeling during Early Cardiac Lineage Specification of Pluripotent Stem Cells.

Growing evidence indicates that metabolites and energy metabolism play an active rather than consequential role in regulating cellular fate. Cardiac development requires dramatic metabolic remodeling from relying primarily on glycolysis in pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) to oxidizing a wide array of energy substrates to match the high bioenergetic demands of continuous contraction in the developed heart. However, a detailed analysis of how remodeling of energy metabolism contributes to human cardiac development is lacking. Using dynamic multiple reaction monitoring metabolomics of central carbon metabolism, we evaluated temporal changes in energy metabolism during human PSC 3D cardiac lineage specification. Significant metabolic remodeling occurs during the complete differentiation, yet temporal analysis revealed that most changes occur during transitions from pluripotency to mesoderm (day 1) and mesoderm to early cardiac (day 5), with limited maturation of cardiac metabolism beyond day 5. Real-time metabolic analysis demonstrated that while hPSC cardiomyocytes (hPSC-CM) showed elevated rates of oxidative metabolism compared to PSCs, they still retained high glycolytic rates, confirming an immature metabolic phenotype. These observations support the opportunity to metabolically optimize the differentiation process to support lineage specification and maturation of hPSC-CMs.