Demand For Commodities Research Articles

Development of a Web-based Application by Employing a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to Identify Pests and Diseases on Pakcoy (Brassica rapa subsp. chinensis)

The development of Pakcoy cultivation holds good prospects, as seen from the demand for vegetable commodities in Indonesia. Its cultivation is consistently rising in terms of volume and value of vegetable imports. However, the cultivation process encounters multiple issues caused by pests and diseases. In addition, the volatile climate in Indonesia has resulted in uninterrupted pest development and the potential decline of Pakcoy’s productivity. Therefore, the detection system for pests and diseases in the Pakcoy plant is called upon to accurately and quickly assist farmers in determining the right treatment, thereby reducing economic losses and producing abundant quality crops. A web-based application with several well-known Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) were incorporated, such as MobileNetV2, GoogLeNet, and ResNet101. A total of 1,226 images were used for training, validating, and testing the dataset to address the problem in this study. The dataset consisted of several plant conditions with leaf miners, cabbage butterflies, powdery mildew disease, healthy plants, and multiple data labels for pests and diseases presented in the individual image. The results show that the MobileNetV2 provides a minimum loss compared to GoogLeNet and ResNet-101 with scores of 0.076, 0.239, and 0.209, respectively. Since the MobileNetV2 architecture provides a good model, the model was carried out to be integrated and tested with the web-based application. The testing accuracy rate reached 98% from the total dataset of 70 testing images. In this direction, MobileNetV2 can be a viable method to be integrated with web-based applications for classifying an image as the basis for decision-making.

Strategising for Business Sustainability Across the Conflict Spectrum in the East African Community

In areas experiencing conflict, it is common to assume that businesses cannot thrive. However, businesses can still succeed during all phases of conflict. After reviewing books, journal articles, field manuals, and online sources on conducting business in conflict-ridden markets, this study emphasises the importance of careful planning and design to ensure a business project’s resilience and sustainability. The study also highlights that risk inversely affects supply and directly influences the demand and price of commodities. Entrepreneurs who understand this fundamental concept should be able to establish a firm during any phase of conflict and contribute to the peacebuilding process. The paper recommends that the business community in the East African Community (EAC) collaborate to influence political elites to implement the EAC protocols fully

Shallot growth and production responses to application of microorganisms based-biostimulant and NPK fertilizer combinations on acid soil

Shallot plants require attention because the demand for this high-value commodity is increasing, especially as Indonesia expands its cultivation over a large area of land. This study aimed to assess the potential of microorganism-based biostimulant formula doses and NPK combinations in promoting shallot growth and production in acidic soil. The experiment used an RCD with four treatments: P=control; P1=standard NPK (600 kg· ha1 urea, 250 kg·ha1 SP-36, and 175 kg·ha1 KCl); P2=3 ml L1 biostimulant + 3/4 standard NPK; and P3=5 ml L1 biostimulant + 3/4 standard NPK with four replications. The observed parameters were plant height, number of leaves and bulbs, as well as bulb fresh and bulb dry weights. The results showed that all treatments gave significantly different effects on all observed parameters. Treatment of P1, P2 and P3 showed a higher bulb’s number and dry weight than control. The P3 is an optimal treatment with a bulb number of 10.0 ± 2.2 per clump. This biostimulant formula is an eco-friendly, renewable, and promising technology for improving the growth and production of shallots in acidic soil.

Klasifikasi Buah Jeruk Segar dan Busuk Berdasarkan RGB dan HSV Menggunakan Metode KNN

Fruits are a group of agricultural commodities in Indonesia. The demand for domestic fruit commodities is quite high, this is indicated by the large number of fruits available in modern markets and traditional markets. In this research, a classification process will be carried out between fresh oranges and rotten oranges based on RGB (Red, Green, Blue) and HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) color extraction. This study uses the K-Nearest Neighbor classification algorithm with a value of k = 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; and 7. The dataset used consists of 146 training data and 88 testing data. The purpose and benefits of this research are to save time and facilitate classification according to the wishes of fruit growers. The final result of the test accuracy is 88.95%. Based on the test, this system can be said to be quite good at classifying fresh and rotten citrus fruits.

Penggunaan Konsentrasi dan Interval Penyemprotan Pupuk Daun Terhadap Produksi Benih Kacang Hijau (Vigna radiata L.)

Mung bean has an economically competitive value, namely a selling price that is more stable orhigher than other bean crops. Demand for mung bean commodities increases from year to year in line withpopulation growth and increased public awareness for nutrition and health improvements. This study aims todetermine the interaction effect of foliar fertilizer concentration and spraying interval on mung bean seedproduction. This research was conducted from September to December 2022 at the Jember State Polytechnic.This study used a factorial randomized block design (RBD) with 3 replications. The first treatment of foliarfertilizer concentration (P) consisted of 3 levels namely P0 (6g/l), P1 (8g/l) and P2 (10 g/l). The secondtreatment was the interval of foliar spraying which consisted of 3 levels, namely I1 (once every 5 days), I2(once in 10 days) and I3 (once in 15 days). The data obtained were then analyzed using the F test (ANOVA),if the results showed a significantly different effect then it was continued with the 5% level DMRT test. Theresults showed that the interaction of concentration treatment and foliar spraying intervals had a verysignificant effect on the parameter of the amount of production per hectare with the best treatment P1I3(0.655 tons), then had a significantly different effect on the parameter number of pods per plant with thehighest average P1I3 (10.67 fruit) and pod weight parameter per plant P1I1 (8.42 gram)

Cournot on the Communication of Markets: The Principle of Compensation of Demands and the Effects of International Trade on Social Income

Cournot's views on the effects of international trade on social income have received little attention. Drawing upon a comprehensive analysis of Cournot's writings, this article shows that Cournot distinguished between variations in nominal income and variations in real income. He introduced the principle of compensation of demands: if the price of a commodity changes, the value of the total demand for other commodities remains unchanged. He relied on this principle to demonstrate that a unilateral removal of trade restrictions can cause real income to fall. Under specific circumstances, protective tariffs may be warranted. Cournot thus endorsed the infant-industry argument without being a die-hard protectionist. The article discusses the arguments of his critics and concludes that many commentators have misrepresented his thinking.

Environmental and land use consequences of replacing milk and beef with plant-based alternatives

The consumption of meat and dairy products raise enormous environmental concerns. Circa 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the livestock industry originate from beef, milk and pork production. Changing the production and consumption of meat and dairy products is considered to offer an important contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement climate targets (UNFCCC, 2015), and could reduce the import of soybean meal to Europe from countries where it is linked with deforestation. However, individual diet substitutions may have indirect and unintended environmental consequences across interlinked livestock systems – hence a wider assessment of impacts of consumption changes is required using consequential life cycle assessment (LCA). In this study, we investigated the environmental consequences of two independent yet interconnected diet choices in a German context: (i) replacing dairy milk with soy milk, and; (ii) replacing beef meatballs with pea protein balls. We related commodity demand to detailed agricultural rotations and land use changes via farm scale economic modelling coupled with consequential LCA. The substitution of beef meatballs with pea-derived protein balls can result in GHG savings of 2.4 kg CO2e per 100 g serving, and up to 7.3 kg CO2e per 100 g serving if spared land is afforested. Environmental problems related to nutrient leakage such as acidification and eutrophication are also mitigated. Meanwhile, unless accompanied by dramatic reductions in beef consumption, the substitution of cow milk with soy-based milk does not lead to significant GHG mitigation owing to the displacement of dairy-beef production to less efficient suckler-beef systems. Nonetheless, land sparing by cow milk substitution could support overall GHG mitigation if combined with afforestation. This study confirms that legumes can play an important role in diet transitions towards climate neutrality, especially via substitution of meat (as opposed to dairy) products.

What moves commodity terms-of-trade? Evidence from 178 countries

Despite the important impact of commodity terms-of-trade (CTOT) on GDP growth, child mortality rates and public debt, little is known about its determinants. Using data from 178 countries (grouped according to their commodity export-import structure) over the period 1962 to 2020, we examine the short-and long-run effects of global economic activity, OECD and emerging markets growth, the exchange rate of U.S. dollar, stock price volatility and real interest rates on CTOT growth. We demonstrate their typical asymmetric effect on exporters and importers, and show, for example, that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar also exhibits opposite effects over the short and long run due to inelastic commodity demand. We find that the growth of emerging market economies provides the most universal and consistent effect across all of our subsamples (i.e., energy and non-energy exporters and importers) - this latter point underscores the contemporary global importance of developing countries' growth.

Machine learning-based optimisation in a two-echelon logistics network for the dry port operation in China

ABSTRACT Efforts of creating economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic stipulate international logistics demands in the countries and regions affected by China's Belt and Road initiative. Considering the increasing number of small and middle-sized enterprises, there is a great challenge to make transportation plans for the hub port, dry ports, and related enterprises. We investigate a two-echelon vehicle routing problem with simultaneous pickups and deliveries. On one hand, freights are transported from a central depot to multiple satellites, then distributed from the satellites to customers. On the other hand, freights collected from the customers will be loaded at the satellites, then transported back to the depot. We model the problem as mixed integer programming and propose a machine learning-based hybrid algorithm to solve the problem. Our hybrid algorithm comprises a K-Nearest Neighbour algorithm and an Adaptive Large Neighbourhood Search heuristic. We apply our modelling and solution approach to a real case based on the online digital platform ‘Inland Port Cloud Wharf’ in China, which matches international demands of commodities with domestic supplies. Our computational experiments based on a practical case study show the efficiency of our KNN_ALNS algorithm in optimising networks with multimodal coordination and addressing real-world logistics complexities.

Research on Factors Affecting the 3D Jelly Cakes Demand of Hanoi Customers

The study analyzes some factors affecting Hanoi consumers' demand for 3D jelly cake. Based on the theory of commodity demand, the research team conducted a survey and collected answers from 308 consumers on some factors affecting 3D jelly cake demand. The synthesis and analysis of survey data indicated that the demand for 3D jelly cakes of Hanoi consumers is influenced by many factors such as the price of the product, tastes, prices of substitutes, and complementary goods...In addition, the research team also considered the advantages of 3D jelly cake compared to other products, as well as discussed some solutions to stimulate consumer demand with this new and aesthetic product.

Bacteriocin and Antioxidant Production, a Beneficial Properties of Lactic Acid Bacteria Isolated from Fermented Vegetables of Northwest Bulgaria.

Lactiplantibacillus plantarum ST01BG, ST07BG, ST10BG, and ST15BG; Latilactobacillus curvatus ST02BG; Lacticaseibacillus paracasei ST04BG; Pediococcus pentosaceus ST05BG; Leuconostoc mesenteroides ST06BG; and Enterococcus faecium ST11BG were isolated from home-made fermented vegetables from Northwest Bulgaria and identified by biochemical, physiological, and biomolecular analyses, including partial 16S rRNA sequencing. The strains were designated as bacteriocin producers and the expressed antimicrobials partially characterized with a focus on their proteinaceous nature, stability to different pH and temperatures. The bacteriocins were effective in inhibiting different strains of Listeria spp., Enterococcus spp. (including vancomycin resistant enterococci) and Staphylococcus spp. These strains can be considered safe, based on the evaluation of hemolytic activity, production of biogenic amines, mucin degradation, antibiotic susceptibility/resistance, and gelatinase enzyme production. Moreover, the strains can be considered potentially beneficial based on their stability and survival under simulated gastrointestinal tract conditions (stomach and duodenum), the production of diacetyl, and specific levels of hydrophobicity. Special attention was given to antioxidant properties (DPPH radical, hydroxyl radical, superoxide anion radical scavenging activity, Fe+2 ion chelating activity, and anti-lipid peroxidation) of the strains. Antioxidant properties were found to be strain specific. The beneficial attributes (antimicrobial and antioxidant) of these cultures to fermented food products may enable the reduction of chemical additives in line with consumers' demand for more natural and chemical-free food commodities.

MALAYSIA’S MACROECONOMIC POLICIES RESPONSES TO COMMODITY CRISIS

The Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary (1995) defined “crisis” as “a time of great difficulty or danger or when an important decision must be made”. According on the situation, there are many definitions for the term "crisis" in use. It was initially used in the field of medicine to indicate the stage of a disease at which a significant development or change had occurred that was either critical to survival or death. The word "crisis" has, nevertheless, become often used in the 20th century. Five significant crises have been identified to give huge impact on Malaysian economy namely were the "early commodity crisis" between 1956 and 1972, the "first oil crisis" between 1973 and 1974, the "second commodity/oil crisis" between 1980 and 1981, the "electronic/third commodity crisis" between 1985 and 1986, and the "financial and currency crisis" between 1997 and 1998 followed by the 2008 Financial Crisis. Commodity crisis is a crisis that extends from the initial commodity crisis of 1956-72, the first oil crisis of 1973-74, the second commodity or oil crisis of 1980-81 and the third commodity or electronics crisis of 1985-86. Recently, the price of the energy and food has been raising again which can results in the next wave of commodity crisis for the country. The prices of food as a whole had gone up as can be seen in the prices of vegetables and poultry. The global food price index tracked by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations showed that in March 2022, it was almost 30 per cent higher year-on-year, hence, result in a really bad food price inflation experienced globally. With reference to energy price, although the world is facing an energy crisis where the demand for energy commodities exceeds supply and this is causing volatility in short-term pricing with global spot prices for natural gas reaching the highest level this year, reports by the government claimed that the impact of the energy crisis on Malaysia has not been alarming. Yet, necessary macroeconomies policies need to be identified to prevent unforeseen impact on the economic growth and society.

Sustainable Development Frontiers: Is ‘Sustainable’ Cocoa Delivering Development and Reducing Deforestation?

ABSTRACTForest frontiers are important areas for sustainable development as they combine the need to halt deforestation with the challenges of rural poverty. In the region of San Martín, Peru, the ‘Production, Protection and Inclusion’ model combines narratives of conservation, economic development and social inclusion in what can be defined as a ‘sustainable development frontier’. This article asks how such sustainable development frontiers change social, economic and ecological outcomes in the localities where they are found. The authors examine the reality of sustainable cocoa production linked to conservation and development goals, as promoted by government bodies, international agencies, cooperatives and chocolate brands in Peru, and show how, paradoxically, sustainability goals intensify production and attract smallholders into forest frontier areas. In doing so, the boom in demand for sustainable commodities has inadvertently created conditions encouraging further colonization of forested areas leading to a continuing rise in deforestation, ecological degradation and economic instability. Narratives of sustainable development can thus reinforce commodity intensification, as they obscure alternative approaches and reproduce traditional frontier dynamics.

The Multivariate Forecasting of Chicken and Beef Prices Involving Weather, Economic, and Health Factors Using the Gated Recurrent Unit Method

Food security, especially in the livestock sector in the form of broiler chicken and beef cattle, is a strategic issue for Indonesia to always be able to balance supply and demand for these food commodities. Food price forecasting is needed to mitigate rising food prices for these commodities. Previous research on food price forecasting was only univariate forecasting and comparison of error results between forecasting algorithms. This study aims to perform multivariate forecasting of broiler and beef cattle prices in DKI Jakarta by involving weather, economic, and health factors using the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithm where the accuracy test is based on the MAPE value. The GRU algorithm for multivariate forecasting of broiler and beef cattle prices yielded an average MAPE for training and testing of 0.471% and 1.150% indicating that all models in the very good accuracy category for multivariate forecasting of broiler and beef cattle were represented. In addition, the model also produces deviations between MAPE values in the training data and test data which are not too different so that the model developed with each price of broiler chicken and beef cattle is categorized in the best fitting category.

Competitiveness and Policy of Soybean Farming in Jeneponto Regency

The demand for local soybean commodities is very low compared to imported soybeans, which affects the decline in soybean planting area, and farmers are also less willing to farm soybeans because they are less profitable. Government policies related to soybean self-sufficiency are widely carried out, but imported soybean commodities still have stronger competitiveness. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and government policies on soybean farming in Tamalatea District, Jeneponto Regency. This study used a survey method. Data collection techniques are observation and interviews. The sampling technique using purposive sampling is to choose soybean farmers who are more productive in their farming, so that the number of samples obtained is 48 farmers. The data analysis technique is quantitative descriptive analysis with the Policy Matrix Analysis method. The results of this study indicate that soybean farming has strong competitiveness, because it has a Private Cost Ratio value of 0.2077 and a Domestic Resource Cost Ratio of 0.1628, with a private profit of Rp 5,752,342.42 per hectare and social profit of Rp 7,682,461.16 per hectare. The input policy on soybean farming resulted in values including: input transfer (IT) of -184,240.32, transfer factor (TF) of Rp 14,365.87, and nominal protection coeficient input (NPCI) of 0.61104. Meanwhile, the output policy resulted in an output transfer (OT) value of Rp -2,099,993.19 and a nominal protection coefficient input (NPCO) of 0.7824. Input-output policies have values including: effectivity policy coeficient (EPC) of 0.7912, subsidy ratio for producer (SRP) of -0.20001, profitability coeficient (PC) of 0.7488, and net transfer (NT) of -1,930,118.73. Government policies that are protective of tradable inputs have a positive impact on soybean farming, so farmers pay lower prices than they should. Government protection policies against tradable output have not been effective, so soybean farmers get output prices that are lower than the price they should. Government policy on tradable inputs simultaneously has not been effective in protecting soybean farming, so it has not been able to provide incentives for increased production.

Minimizing Maximum Unmet Demand by Transportations Between Adjacent Nodes Characterized by Supplies and Demands

Suppose we are given a graph with nodes characterized by amounts of supplies and demands of multiple commodities. The amounts of commodities stored at nodes (supplies) are given by positive numbers while those of demands at nodes are given by negative numbers. To meet demands we send commodities from nodes to neighbors by using vehicles, one at each node, with some loading capacity moving to and from neighbors. In this paper we adopt a one-way transportation model in which we just send commodities from a node to one of its neighbors along an edge. When we choose one neighbor at each node, we have a set of trips which naturally define a graph such that each connected component has at most one cycle, which is known as a pseudoforest. We present a linear-time algorithm for deciding whether there is a set of trips that meet all demands using one-way multi-commodity transportations on a pseudoforest with node degrees bounded by a constant. Using the algorithm, we first present an efficient algorithm for finding an optimal set of one-way one-commodity trips that minimize the maximum unmet demand on a pseudoforest, and then extend the idea to a multi-commodity problem on a pseudoforest with node degrees bounded by a constant.

Green split multiple-commodity pickup and delivery vehicle routing problem

This paper studies a new version of the green split multiple-commodity pickup and delivery vehicle routing problem, in which the multiple commodity demands of each retail store could be split and each retail store could be visited multiple times. In addition, the reallocation of items collected from other retail stores, traffic congestion and time-windows for convenient pickup and delivery were considered when formulating the model. To solve this complex model, a two-stage search quantum particle swarm optimization (TSQPSO) algorithm is proposed. The two-stage search strategy of TSQPSO helps to find the optimization direction quickly. Meanwhile, the three designed neighbourhood structures help to prevent the algorithm from falling into local optimal solutions. We compared the results obtained by the GAMS optimization solver and our algorithm. The average gap between the results is 0.86%, but our algorithm can obtain the optimal solution much faster. The computational results show that the model is capable of offering more reasonable and economical solutions. Furthermore, we found that with the lower unit operating commodity cost at the depot, the total cost is lower when the commodities are allowed to distribute from the depot. Conversely, when it is higher, the total cost is lower when the commodities collected from the supply retail stores are reallocated.

Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation

Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture-conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.

Overview of Committed Quantities in Commodity Demand Analysis with a Focus on Energy

An overview of the literature considering committed quantities in demand estimation for various commodities with an emphasis on energy commodities is presented. This overview provides a definition and the history of committed quantities, along with different theoretical modeling methodologies. Committed quantities are quantities that are consumed in the short run with little regard for price. Previous studies suggest that committed quantities for various commodities range from 15 to 98% of consumption. The inclusion of committed quantities appears to improve estimates generally, but it is not clear-cut. Problems arise when estimated committed quantities are negative or larger than the consumption amount. This review concludes with a recommendation that further research is necessary to resolve such issues, provide an improved understanding of the committed quantities in estimation, and fill in knowledge gaps concerning committed quantities ranging from theoretical to practical issues.

Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States

The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.