Delta Project Research Articles

Leading Change: The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program

October 2013 San Francisco Estuary & Watershed Science: Science & Policy for the Delta Leading Change: The Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program and the Delta Science Plan Valerie Connor State and Federal Contractors Water Agency Sacramento, CA 95814 USA vconnor@sfcwa.org The opinions expressed in this essay are my own and not the policies or positions of the SFCWA or CSAMP member agencies or the Delta Science Program. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, “adaptive management” and “best available science” have become catch phrases describing how we will address the restoration of a highly altered ecosystem and improve the reliability of the water supply. The Delta Reform Act (2009) mandates the use of both as we work towards the co-equal goals. The Delta Stewardship Council has released a Delta Plan (DSC 2013) that calls for its Delta Science Program to draft a Delta Science Plan (DSP 2013) by December 2013. The Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BCDP) is nearing completion, and, as an eventual part of the Delta Plan, it too relies heavily on the two concepts. But, will adaptive management and best available science help us achieve the co-equal goals? The draft Delta Science Plan recognizes both concepts are necessary, but not sufficient. Success will require collaboration 1 , integration, time, and a sustained commitment from all of us who conduct science in the Delta and all of us who rely upon it. Introduction 1 Collaboration is a mutually ­beneficial and well-defined relationship entered into by two or more parties to achieve shared goals. This essay recognizes that success will require a conscious effort to actively “lead change” in how we approach and support scientific endeavors. The assessment of our collective ability to lead change is not a critique of scientists or science, but is criti- cal of how scientific information for policy is generated and used. The process that resolves controversial policy decisions needs improvement. Delta scientists will need to work together in new ways, but they will only succeed if policymakers, managers, and stakeholders create the environment necessary for scientists to excel; this is the more difficult challenge. This essay suggests that for the Delta Science Plan to be suc- cessful, we must consciously lead the changes required for implementation.

Delta Subsidence Reversal, Levee Failure, and Aquatic Habitat—A Cautionary Tale

Various schemes are often suggested to reverse the subsidence of lands below sea level in California's Sacramento—San Joaquin Delta, an area protected by levees (dikes) that have significant probabilities of failure. Elementary modeling is used to estimate the probability distribution of land elevations at time of failure for 36 of these subsided islands, assuming a reasonable potential subsidence rever- sal rate. Given estimated annual probabilities of levee failure, elevation gains at this rate are not expected to exceed 1 to 2 m before flooding, which would be insufficient to restore most subsided islands to mean sea level (msl). However, under some circumstances 1- to 2-m gains are significant. A framework is introduced for evaluating islands as promising candidates for subsidence reversal based on elevation goals other than msl, as dem- onstrated though a hypothetical aquatic habitat example. Here, we recommend relevant subsidence reversal strategies by comparing an elevation goal with each island's anticipated flooded depth, and we prioritize islands for investment based on trade- offs between anticipated outcome and lost agricul- tural revenues. This approach might help integrate subsidence-reversal activities into long-term Delta planning under a range of flooding, land use, and habitat management scenarios.

Faith-Based Health and Wellness Assessments for African Americans: The Better Health for the Delta Project

Faith-Based Health and Wellness Assessments for African Americans: The Better Health for the Delta Project

Broccoli seedlings prevent glucose‐induced inflammation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells in humans

We studied the effect of anti‐inflammatory components in vegetables on postprandial inflammation using broccoli seedlings (Broccocress®, Koppert Cress BV, Monster, The Netherlands), which are rich in the isothiocyanate sulforaphane (SFN). In an NF‐κB reporter cell line, increasing concentrations of 2–15 μM SFN lead to inhibition of TNFα‐stimulated NF‐κB activation up to 98% (p<0.05). Five healthy subjects ingested a load of 75 gram glucose with or without a smoothie of broccoli seedlings (45 min. prior to glucose). NF‐κB activation in the nuclear fraction of peripheral blood mononuclear cells was determined by ELISA. 75 gram glucose leads to a 36.5% ± 20.3% increase in NF‐κB activation. In combination with the smoothie, NF‐κB was decreased by 64.8% (p<0.005) and 29.3% ± 9.3% (p<0.005) compared to high‐glucose‐induced and basal NF‐κB levels, respectively. The level of NF‐κB activation correlated to blood glucose levels after the oral glucose load, but not when the smoothie was ingested as well. SFN could be detected in plasma after 1.5 hrs. Total SFN (free SFN plus conjugated SFN) correlated to inhibition of NF‐κB. This suggests that broccoli seedlings are effective in reducing metabolic inflammation in humans.Grant Funding Source: Food Nutrition Delta project # FND09002

Looking Behind Community College Budgets for Future Policy Considerations

This study reviews the historical trend of college revenues and expenditures from a national perspective using primarily data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) as reported by the Delta Project for the years 1999-2009. Looking at trends related to state and local appropriations, college costs and prices, output, and productivity, it argues that various policy issues flow from these trends. The recommendations that follow are not precise prescriptions for legislative action, but rather suggestions for the direction of public and institutional policy that invite further reflection and research.

Are Dutch water safety institutions prepared for climate change?

For the water sector, adapting to the effects of climate change is a highly complex issue. Due to its geographical position, The Netherlands is vulnerable to sea level rise, increasing river discharges and increasing salt intrusion. This paper deals with the question of to what extent the historically developed Dutch water safety institutions have the capacity to cope with the ‘new’ challenges of climate change. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel provides the methodological framework. The analysis focuses on three recent and major planning practices in the Dutch water safety domain: the development and implementation of the Room for the River project, the introduction of the flood risk approach and the introduction of the Second Delta Plan. The results show that Dutch water safety institutions enable climate change adaptation, but to a limited extent. They face five institutional weaknesses that may cause risks in particular in the long term. The paper concludes that for The Netherlands to be prepared for climate change, it is necessary to build capacity to improvise, to invest in and create room for collaborative leaders, and to find ways to generate financial resources for long-term innovative measures.

Measuring the Cost of a College Degree

Inspired by a white paper produced by the Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, and Accountability, this study uses different measures of calculating the cost of a college degree at an upstate community college in New York. Departmental cost per credit hour, direct instructional costs, and full costs are all explained. A transcript analysis of the 2008-2009 graduates highlights excess credit hours taken and cross-subsidies necessary within degree programs to produce these graduates.

Using the Community College to Control College Costs: How Much Cheaper Is It?

Data from NCES indicate that it is two to three times more expensive to educate a student at a public four-year college than at a community college. These figures exaggerate the difference between the two when you calculate the costs of the first two years of education for students working on a bachelor's degree. Using modified Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) data from the recently released Delta Project, this study shows that the cost per full-time equivalent (FTE) and the public subsidy per FTE are lower at public master's level colleges than at the community college. Trend data from 1987–2005 are examined along with appropriate cautions for interpreting the results.

Modern integrated river flood management for climate change in the Netherlands: the IJssel Delta project

This paper describes a planning process combining river flood management with spatial planning. Within the IJssel Delta project, a river bypass in the river IJssel, one of the major Dutch rivers, is planned to reduce the risk of flooding in view of the expected climate change effects. The challenge for this project was to combine various developments (bypass, urban development, nature, leisure, infrastructure and agriculture) in the area into a single integrated spatial development plan, acceptable to all stakeholders. This included resolving spatial conflicts between separate developments regarding (i) flood protection, (ii) infrastructure and (iii) housing. During the planning process, various bypass alternatives were considered to determine the span width of possible solutions. Various technical issues related to the bypass design have been studied using the state-of-the-art methods. A participatory approach involving public and private stakeholders has been used to secure a widely accepted development plan. The plan has been adopted by the responsible authorities. It is now in the final stage and is scheduled for execution from 2013 onwards.

NIGERIA: Niger Delta Plan

Africa Research Bulletin: Economic, Financial and Technical SeriesVolume 48, Issue 2 p. 19013C-19014B ECONOMIC TRENDS NIGERIA: Niger Delta Plan First published: 01 April 2011 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6346.2011.03777.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume48, Issue2April 2011Pages 19013C-19014B RelatedInformation

Improving data management and dissemination in web based information systems by semantic enrichment of descriptive data aspects

The German–Vietnamese water-related information system for the Mekong Delta (WISDOM) project supports business processes in Integrated Water Resources Management in Vietnam. Multiple disciplines bring together earth and ground based observation themes, such as environmental monitoring, water management, demographics, economy, information technology, and infrastructural systems. This paper introduces the components of the web-based WISDOM system including data, logic and presentation tier. It focuses on the data models upon which the database management system is built, including techniques for tagging or linking metadata with the stored information. The model also uses ordered groupings of spatial, thematic and temporal reference objects to semantically tag datasets to enable fast data retrieval, such as finding all data in a specific administrative unit belonging to a specific theme. A spatial database extension is employed by the PostgreSQL database. This object-oriented database was chosen over a relational database to tag spatial objects to tabular data, improving the retrieval of census and observational data at regional, provincial, and local areas. While the spatial database hinders processing raster data, a “work-around” was built into WISDOM to permit efficient management of both raster and vector data. The data model also incorporates styling aspects of the spatial datasets through styled layer descriptions (SLD) and web mapping service (WMS) layer specifications, allowing retrieval of rendered maps. Metadata elements of the spatial data are based on the ISO19115 standard. XML structured information of the SLD and metadata are stored in an XML database. The data models and the data management system are robust for managing the large quantity of spatial objects, sensor observations, census and document data. The operational WISDOM information system prototype contains modules for data management, automatic data integration, and web services for data retrieval, analysis, and distribution. The graphical user interfaces facilitate metadata cataloguing, data warehousing, web sensor data analysis and thematic mapping.

ATRIUMTMFuel – Continuous Upgrading for High Duty BWR Plants

The evolution of BWR fuel assemblies over the last forty years was driven by improvement of plant economics in combination with a substantial increase of fuel assembly burnup from 30 MWd/kgU up to 70 MWd/kgU. Additional thermal margins obtained by transition from 7x7 to 10x10 lattices were consumed in more efficient core loadings. Despite increasingly demanding operating conditions, the failure rate for BWR fuel could be significantly reduced and has reached a low level. Debris fretting and pellet cladding interaction (PCI) are the main causes for fuel failures and require further design improvement efforts. AREVA developed in the frame of the DELTA project the next generation BWR fuel assembly with the clear goal to realize a problem- and failure-free product. Furthermore, the new fuel must be suited to reactor power uprates from 10% up to 30%, which the majority of BWRs worldwide will have completed by the year 2015 and which will limit flexibility of operation of today’s fuel assemblies. The combination of these requirements resulted in the development of the ATRIUMTM 11 which will be available to the market by the year 2012.

Delta project: Delirium in hospitalized elderly

Delta project: Delirium in hospitalized elderly

A Dutch geoscience perspective on the Katrina disaster

AbstractA combination of geological and anthropogenic processes have rendered the U.S. Gulf Coast in general – and the Mississippi Delta in particular – extremely sensitive to coastal hazard. Thus, the Katrina disaster was not a question of ‘if’ but of ‘when’. This contribution outlines the geo-environmental context of the Mississippi Delta that evolved during the 20th century and set the stage for Hurricane Katrina’s devastation. This includes a brief discussion of the processes responsible for coastal erosion and wetland loss, the proposed measures to combat these problems, and the policy decisions (or, rather, the lack thereof) made so far. A connection is made with the 1953 storm surge that devastated the southwestern Netherlands and had a profound impact on Dutch science and engineering by providing the impetus for the widely known and highly praised Delta Plan, as well as for unprecedented studies of Holocene sea-level change. Whether a similar route will be followed for the Gulf Coast is primarily dependent on the amount of political will. Results are presented of recent studies of crustal movements in the Mississippi Delta that show surprising long-term stability of the Pleistocene basement, evidence that could prove critical for decision makers with regard to the rebuilding process. Finally, the neglect of the precarious situation along the Gulf Coast by the federal government is viewed as a possible metaphor for current U.S. policies with respect to science in general, and to global warming in particular.“Land that sits below sea level. Levees and dams that stand against nature’s fury. Countryside that sinks more every year. New Orleans? No. Holland: a nation whose flood protections makes ours look primitive and slapdash”John McQuaid, The Times-Picayune, November 13, 2005

Changing Estuaries, Changing Views

During the design and the execution of the Delta project, carried out after the storm flood of 1953 in the SW Netherlands, the importance of the long-term effects of morphological and ecological developments driven by tides and currents, have been underestimated. Due to these processes the height of the dams will have to be increased for centuries to come, because the land behind the levees cannot grow in elevation anymore with the rising of the sea. Maintenance of the civil-engineering structures, and mitigating their unpredictable impacts on ecosystems, involve very high recurrent costs. The chance of flooding is reduced, but the potential damage after a storm flood is enlarged: seawalls and dykes provide a false sense of safety against flooding. Changes in the role of agricultural use in the European context, offer an opportunity to abandon arable fields and to retrocede them to the sea in order to absorb tidal energy and to allow the land to rise concomitant with the sea. A cost-benefit analysis of this approach should assess the direct and indirect economic values, as well as the non-use (intrinsic) values, whereby public engagement in management questions, facilitates decision-making processes. Reversible and resilient economic measures within the limits of the natural processes are preferable. A future, speculative perspective is an urbanised landscape, where people and investments are located in safe places, e.g. on floating, or sea-encircled artificial dwelling-mounds, surrounded by a landscape that is ruled by the forces of nature. New approaches such as developed in the Westerschelde offer flexible solutions to flooding problems, and are worth a broader evaluation. A worldwide platform of experts should be organised to study the future management of estuaries and deltas, and to develop and exchange new ideas and techniques.

Delta Blues

Delta Blues Cornelis Disco (bio) Flood control is a national religion in the Netherlands. In 49 U.S. states, it's Louisiana's problem. —John McQuaid, New Orleans Times-Picayune, 13 November 2005 The whirlwind that swept through the American media after the devastation of New Orleans last August was hardly less ferocious than Hurricane Katrina itself. The Corps of Engineers was lambasted for failing to defend the city against the floodwaters, while politicians from Mayor Ray Nagin to President George Bush were called to account for the tragically incompetent evacuation and relief efforts. Critics frequently drove their points home with invidious comparisons to the Netherlands. Flood control in the United States was fragmented, environmentally indifferent, callous about safety standards, and undermined by pork-barreling and deceitful contractors (so went the refrain); the Dutch, in contrast, were a nation of honest, clever, hardworking, technologically advanced Hans Brinkers. Hastily dispatched television news teams from all three U.S. national networks, poised photogenically in front of the mammoth Maeslandt floodgates in Rotterdam's Nieuwe Waterweg or the Oosterscheldt storm-surge barrier in Zeeland, reported glowingly (and in prime time) on Dutch excellence in water management. The Dutch (so the stories went), unlike the Americans, had historically faced up to their precarious situation on the low-lying North Sea coast, whatever the cost. Surely their experience held lessons for the reconstruction of New Orleans and the construction of effective and ecologically responsible flood-control systems in the Mississippi Delta. The favorite case in point was the ambitious Delta Plan, which closed off the estuaries of the Rhine and Meuse rivers in response to the [End Page 341] catastrophic storm-surge flood of February 1953. To the American reporters, that flood seemed quite analogous to what had just befallen New Orleans, and now it was clearly time for the United States to launch its own Delta Plan. None dwelled for long on the fact of the 1953 flood itself, or on the large number of deaths (1,870) it caused. That the Netherlands should have been so unprepared for such a devastating storm surge did not fit the image of the nation as indomitable master of the flood. The earliest news features focused on the hardware of water management—the need for something like the Oosterscheldt barrier in Lake Pontchartrain and a Maeslandtkering for the Mississippi—but later press coverage tended to stress the ecological turn that Dutch flood control had taken. In an interview on 8 September 2005, National Public Radio's Ira Flatow declared that the Dutch had learned "that while you can't stop the waters from rising you can work with nature," a reference to the "half-open" design of the Oosterscheldt storm-surge barrier and the current "room for water" projects on the Rhine and Meuse rivers. (The Oosterscheldt barrier, though it provides a solid bulwark against storm surges, allows a measure of tidal action in the estuary under normal conditions, thereby helping to preserve wetlands as well as the flourishing oyster and mussel industry.) The lesson for the United States was that it was high time to abandon the venerable Corps of Engineers tradition of constraining the Mississippi in a corset of levees, which had robbed the Delta of riverborne silt and nutrients, accelerated its subsidence and erosion, and deprived New Orleans of much of its natural buffer against storm surges. How accurate was the U.S. media's portrayal of flood control in the Netherlands? At best it is an open question. Even as American reporters heaped praise on Dutch flood defenses, major newspapers in the Netherlands were running articles that framed the New Orleans disaster as a warning. Several experts gave it as their opinion that Dutch dikes were also substandard in many places and that, without new investment, the Netherlands might well take up where New Orleans left off. Contrary to the romantic view expressed in the American media, staying one up on the floods is not a genetic proclivity. Hard political and rhetorical work has gone into maintaining the vaunted defenses that keep the Netherlands more or less dry and allow it to prosper. Still, the easy access of a vocal "hydraulic lobby" to...

What happened in 1953? The Big Flood in the Netherlands in retrospect

During the weekend of Saturday 31 January to Sunday 1 February 1953, a storm tide raged across the northwest European shelf and flooded the low-lying coastal areas of the countries around the North Sea. The peak high waters occurred during the night and the storm surprised many people in their sleep. The resulting disaster in terms of loss of life and damage to infrastructure was enormous. In the Netherlands, 1836 people fell victim to the flood; in the UK and Belgium, the casualties were 307 and 22, respectively. The large number of fatalities in the Netherlands was related to the fact that much of the affected area is below sea-level.This paper focuses on the case of the Netherlands. It discusses the history of land reclamation, and the fact that living in low-lying areas protected by dykes, often below sea-level, is an accepted fact of life in the Netherlands. The historical approach to dyke maintenance is then outlined, and the state of the dykes in the early twentieth century and after the war is discussed. The characteristics of the storm and the flood are discussed, along with people's experiences of the first hours and days following the flood. The impact of this human stress has often been lasting--many survivors continue to live with daily memories of the flood. Attention is given to the large-scale rescue and relief efforts, the closure of the dykes during the following nine months and the concept of the Delta Plan, designed to prevent such a large-scale disaster ever happening again. Although the 1953 storm was indeed a low probability event leading to very high storm-induced water-levels, and occurred in combination with spring tide, several arguments are presented that explain why this flood turned into a disaster of such a large scale. Equally, the question is raised whether the disaster could have been prevented. The paper concludes by noting the importance of awareness and preparedness in order to prevent a future storm threat of this scale turning into a disaster of the scope of the Big Flood of 1953.

The Delta project: increasing breast cancer screening among rural minority and older women by targeting rural healthcare providers.

To test a multimethod approach designed for rural healthcare providers to increase breast cancer screening among low-income, African American, and older women. Two-year experimental pretest/post-test with random assignment by group. Primary healthcare providers' offices. 224 nurses, physicians, and mammography technicians. Standardized patients to observe and record healthcare providers' performances, followed by direct feedback, newsletters, posters, pocket reminder cards, and lay literature about screening to use in clinics. Healthcare providers' knowledge and attitudes as measured by survey responses, skills as measured by a checklist, and the provision of breast cancer screening as measured by mammography facilities' data. Healthcare providers significantly improved in demonstration of breast cancer screening practice after the intervention. Nurses performed significantly better than physicians on the breast examination during the post-test. More women older than 50 received mammograms in the experimental counties than in the comparison counties. Culturally sensitive lay literature is needed for African American women with low literacy. Successful interventions included use of standardized patients to teach healthcare providers in their office settings, prompts such as posters and pocket reminder cards, and easy-to-read newsletters. Physicians and nurses play a powerful role in motivating women to have mammograms and clinical breast examinations and to practice breast self-examination. Interventions that help these providers fulfill that role should be implemented.

The Oosterschelde Storm Surge Barrier: A Test Case for Dutch Water Technology, Management, and Politics

relationship is not as straightforward?humans dominating nature?as the phrase suggests. It is, for example, mediated in complex ways by science and technology. In this essay I will focus on one recent crisis in this relationship between the Dutch and the sea, the disastrous flood of 1953, and its resolu tion through the Delta Plan, and in particular the building of the storm surge barrier in the Oosterschelde.1

Killing the 'Vietcong': The British Advisory Mission and the Strategic Hamlet Programme

The British Advisory Mission to Vietnam (BRIAM) was established in September 1961. It was headed by Robert Thompson, who had gained experience in anti-guerrilla-warfare in Malaya. Contrary to the widely accepted view, Thompson did not conceive the Strategic Hamlet Programme that was announced in February 1962. While working for the adoption of methods used during the Malayan emergency, including strategic hamlets, Thompson was disappointed that its own strategy - the Delta Plan - got lost in the Strategic Hamlet Programme. Once Thompson had become resigned to the fact that he had to give advice within the framework of the Strategic Hamlet Programme, he began to believe in its ultimate success, and informed President John F. Kennedy in early 1963 that the defeat of the communist insurgents was imminent.