Delay In Monsoon Onset Research Articles

Feeling solastalgia: A study of the effects of changing climate in rural India

Rural communities are dependent on their native environment for supporting their customs, traditions, and other rural activities. This study attempts to understand the effects of the changing climate on rural individuals by investigating their feelings and experiences of perceived changes in the home environment and village life. Thirty‐four in‐depth interviews were conducted during the months of May–June 2019 in two districts—Gaya and Jehanabad of South Bihar, India. The findings reveal that the rural population have experienced changes in climate such as a rise in the incidence of heatwaves, erratic rainfall patterns, delay in monsoon onset, early drying of water resources, and loss of particular tree and bird species. Worries and uncertainties of the rural population have emerged from the experiences of involuntary separation from traditional farm activities, forced adaptation strategies, loss of cultural and religious practices, and reduced self‐worth in coping with the deteriorating environment. The changing climate instigates feelings of emotional distress, resulting in adverse mental health and psychological well‐being outcomes. It is concluded that the changing climate is responsible for the loss of traditional village customs and nature‐related cultural practices, subsequently inducing solastalgia among the rural population.

Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia.

Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes may influence children's nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization, and which may have lasting consequences for later-life health and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on climate and child health by studying the effects of temperature and precipitation exposures on children's height and weight in Indonesia. Drawing on five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) implemented between 1993 and 2015, we estimate fixed-effects regression models of height-for-age (HFA) and weight-for-height (WFH) among samples of children ages 24-59 months and 0-23 months, respectively. We test for heterogeneity in these effects across sub-populations expected to vary in their vulnerability. Results show that delays in monsoon onset are consistently associated with worse child health outcomes. Delays in monsoon onset during the prenatal period are associated with reduced child height among children age 2-4 years. The weight of young (<2 years) children is adversely affected by delays in the most recent monsoon season, and this relationship is particularly strong among residents of Java. Overall, our results underline the need for interventions that protect children's nutrition and underlying health against the effects of climate change.

Climate Shocks Constrain Human Fertility in Indonesia.

Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia, we use longitudinal household survey and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing intentions, family planning use, and births following community-level climate shocks from 1993 to 2015. We find that fertility intentions increase and family planning use declines in response to delays in monsoon onset occurring within the previous year, particularly for wealthier populations. However, women on farms are significantly more likely to use family planning and less likely to give birth following abnormally high temperatures during the previous five years. We also measure parallel shifts in household well-being as measured by rice, food, and non-food consumption expenditures. Our findings advance the environmental fertility literature by showing that longer duration environmental shocks can have impacts on fertility behaviors and outcomes. Collectively, our results illustrate human fertility responses to climate change in a country vulnerable to its effects, and demonstrate that in some cases, climate shocks can constrain human fertility.

Effects of climate shocks on human fertility in Indonesia: a retrospective, panel analysis of household survey and climate data

BackgroundClimate change is likely to induce a large range of household-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviours and outcomes. These responses might have important implications for human and economic development, women's empowerment, and environmental sustainability. However, to date, few studies have explored the associations between climate change and fertility intentions, family planning use, and births. MethodsDrawing on the literature linking climate variability to rice production in Indonesia, we used large-scale, longitudinal household survey data and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing preferences, family planning use, and births after community-level climate anomalies (timing of monsoon onset and temperature) in Indonesia between 1993 and 2015. Analyses were done with a series of fixed-effects, logistic regression models. We also assessed parallel shifts in household wellbeing, as measured by expenditure on rice, food, and non-food products. FindingsWe found that, in the short term (climate anomalies occurring 1–12 months before surveys), fertility desires increased and family planning use declined in response to delays in monsoon onset, particularly in wealthier populations. Delays in monsoon onset were also associated with substantially reduced expenditure on food and non-food products among households without farm businesses and high levels of education. In the medium term (climate anomalies occurring 1–60 months before surveys), fertility desires declined and family planning use increased in response to high temperatures, particularly in poorer populations. InterpretationThese results suggest that fertility desires, family planning use, and births are affected by climate shocks. Provision of high-quality family planning services can serve as an important climate change adaptation tool for vulnerable populations. FundingNone.

Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century

We used a high‐resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large‐scale monsoon flow and suppression of the dominant intraseasonal oscillatory modes were instrumental in the overall weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Such changes in monsoon dynamics could have substantial impacts by decreasing summer precipitation in key areas of South Asia.

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases distribution

Global climate change has the potential to disrupt agricultural systems, undermine household socioeconomic status, and shape the prevalence and distribution of diseases. Each of these changes may influence children's nutritional status, which is sensitive to food availability, access, and utilization, and which may have lasting consequences for later-life health and socioeconomic outcomes. This paper contributes to the emerging literature on climate and child health by studying the effects of temperature and precipitation exposures on children's height and weight in Indonesia. Drawing on five rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) implemented between 1993 and 2015, we estimate fixed-effects regression models of height-for-age (HFA) and weight-for-height (WFH) among samples of children ages 24–59 months and 0–23 months, respectively. We test for heterogeneity in these effects across sub-populations expected to vary in their vulnerability. Results show that delays in monsoon onset are consistently associated with worse child health outcomes. Delays in monsoon onset during the prenatal period are associated with reduced child height among children age 2–4 years. The weight of young (<2 years) children is adversely affected by delays in the most recent monsoon season, and this relationship is particularly strong among residents of Java. Overall, our results underline the need for interventions that protect children's nutrition and underlying health against the effects of climate change.