Delay Differential Model Research Articles

Optimal control of glucose-insulin dynamics via delay differential model with fractional-order

This paper proposes a delay differential model with fractional order for glucose-insulin endocrine, metabolic regulation model, incorporating beta-cell dynamics to regulate and maintain bloodstream insulin concentration. In the model, two time delays are involved, namely δg and δι, which represent delayed insulin secretion and delayed glucose reduction. A moderate hyperglycemia results in beta-cell growth (negative feedback), while a severe hyperglycemia results in beta-cell reduction (positive feedback). When a time delay passes a bifurcation point, Hopf bifurcation occurs. It is evident from biological findings that the model exhibits periodic oscillations. Furthermore, we present an optimal control problem for external insulin infusions to minimize prolonged high blood sugar levels. Numerical simulations have validated the theoretical results.

Dynamics of a Price Adjustment Model with Distributed Delay

This paper deals with the stability and occurrence of Hopf bifurcation of a distributed delay differential cobweb model using the chain trick technique. This is a generalized form of the fixed delay cobweb model to which it is compared using the same parameter values. The results from the delay distribution showed that whenever less weight (γ=0.146) is put on past prices, the current equilibrium price is adjusted upwards while the reverse is observed when a higher weight (γ=0.186) is put on the previous price. It is also observed that if the initial price is set below/above the equilibrium price, the price adjustment either affects the consumers or benefits the suppliers. However, the fixed delay cobweb model does not display the consumers or suppliers benefits of the price dynamics in either direction. These are unique, underlying patterns in price dynamics discovered when using a distributed delay model compared to traditional fixed delay cobweb models. Furthermore, our model challenges the traditional cobweb model’s requirement for divergence, as it is based on the weight assigned to past prices rather than the relationship between the elasticities of supply and demand, which is the determining factor in the classical model. Based on these insights, we recommend that future price adjustment models incorporate distributed delays, as they reveal more intricate price dynamics and provide a more comprehensive understanding of market behavior than fixed delay models.

Cholera disease dynamics with vaccination control using delay differential equation

The COVID-19 pandemic came with many setbacks, be it to a country’s economy or the global missions of organizations like WHO, UNICEF or GTFCC. One of the setbacks is the rise in cholera cases in developing countries due to the lack of cholera vaccination. This model suggested a solution by introducing another public intervention, such as adding Chlorine to water bodies and vaccination. A novel delay differential model of fractional order was recommended, with two different delays, one representing the latent period of the disease and the other being the delay in adding a disinfectant to the aquatic environment. This model also takes into account the population that will receive a vaccination. This study utilized sensitivity analysis of reproduction number to analytically prove the effectiveness of control measures in preventing the spread of the disease. This analysis provided the mathematical evidence for adding disinfectants in water bodies and inoculating susceptible individuals. The stability of the equilibrium points has been discussed. The existence of stability switching curves is determined. Numerical simulation showed the effect of delay, resulting in fluctuations in some compartments. It also depicted the impact of the order of derivative on the oscillations.

Deviation from the recommended schedule: optimal dosing interval foratwo-dose vaccination programme.

Optimizing vaccination impact during an emerging disease becomes crucial when vaccine supply is limited, and robustprotection requires multiple doses. Facing this challenge during the early stages of the COVID-19 vaccine deployment, a pivotal policy question arose: whether to administer a single dose to a larger proportion of the population by deferring the second dose, or to prioritize stronger protection for a smaller subset of the population with the established dosing interval from clinical trials. Usinga delay-differential model and considering waning immunity and distribution capacity, we compared these strategies. We found that the efficacy of the first dose significantly influences the impact ofdelaying the second dose. Even for a relatively low efficacy of the first dose, adelayed strategy may outperform vaccination with the recommended dosing interval in reducing short-term hospitalizations anddeaths despite increase in infections. The optimal delay, however, depends on the specific outcome measured and timelines within which the vaccination strategy is evaluated. We found transition lines for the relative reduction of infection, hospitalization and death below which vaccination with the recommended schedule is the preferred strategy. In a realistic parameter space, our results highlight scenarios in which the conclusions of previous studies are invalid.

Well-posedness analysis and pseudo-Galerkin approximations using Tau Legendre algorithm for fractional systems of delay differential models regarding Hilfer (α,β)-framework set.

Fractional calculus serves as a versatile and potent tool for the modeling and control of intricate systems. This discussion debates the system of DFDEs with two regimes; theoretically and numerically. For theoretical analysis, we have established the EUE by leveraging the definition of Hilfer (α,β)-framework. Our investigation involved the examination of the possessions of the FRD, FCD, and FHD, utilizing their forcefulness and qualifications to convert the concerning delay system into an equivalent one of fractional DVIEs. By employing the CMT, we have successfully demonstrated the prescribed requirements. For numerical analysis, the Galerkin algorithm was implemented by leveraging OSLPs as a base function. This algorithm allows us to estimate the solution to the concerning system by transforming it into a series of algebraic equations. By employing the software MATHEMATICA 11, we have effortlessly demonstrated the requirements estimation of the nodal values. One of the key advantages of the deployed algorithm is its ability to achieve accurate results with fewer iterations compared to alternative methods. To validate the effectiveness and precision of our analysis, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation through various linear and nonlinear numerical applications. The results of these tests, accompanied by figures and tables, further support the superiority of our algorithm. Finally, an analysis of the numerical algorithm employed was provided along with insightful suggestions for potential future research directions.

Modeling the cortical response elicited by wrist manipulation via a nonlinear delay differential embedding.

Regarding motor processes, modeling healthy people's brains is essential to understand the brain activity in people with motor impairments. However, little research has been undertaken when external forces disturb limbs, having limited information on physiological pathways. Therefore, in this paper, a nonlinear delay differential embedding model is used to estimate the brain response elicited by externally controlled wrist movement in healthy individuals. The aim is to improve the understanding of the relationship between a controlled wrist movement and the generated cortical activity of healthy people, helping to disclose the underlying mechanisms and physiological relationships involved in the motor event. To evaluate the model, a public database from the Delft University of Technology is used, which contains electroencephalographic recordings of ten healthy subjects while wrist movement was externally provoked by a robotic system. In this work, the cortical response related to movement is identified via Independent Component Analysis and estimated based on a nonlinear delay differential embedding model. After a cross-validation analysis, the model performance reaches 90.21% ± 4.46% Variance Accounted For, and Correlation 95.14% ± 2.31%. The proposed methodology allows to select the model degree, to estimate a general predominant operation mode of the cortical response elicited by wrist movement. The obtained results revealed two facts that had not previously been reported: the movement's acceleration affects the cortical response, and a common delayed activity is shared among subjects. Going forward, identifying biomarkers related to motor tasks could aid in the evaluation of rehabilitation treatments for patients with upper limbs motor impairments.

A stochastic scale conjugate neural network procedure for the SIRC epidemic delay differential system

In this study, a stochastic computing structure is provided for the numerical solutions of the SIRC epidemic delay differential model, i.e. SIRC-EDDM using the dynamics of the COVID-19. The design of the scale conjugate gradient (CG) neural networks (SCGNNs) is presented for the numerical treatment of SIRC-EDDM. The mathematical model is divided into susceptible S ( ρ ) , recovered R ( ρ ) , infected I ( ρ ) , and cross-immune C ( ρ ) , while the numerical performances have been provided into three different cases. The exactitude of the SCGNNs is perceived through the comparison of the accomplished and reference outcomes (Runge-Kutta scheme) and the negligible absolute error (AE) that are performed around 10−06 to 10−08 for each case of the SIRC-EDDM. The obtained results have been presented to reduce the mean square error (MSE) using the performances of train, validation, and test data. The neuron analysis is also performed that shows the AE by taking 14 neurons provide more accurateness as compared to 4 numbers of neurons. To check the proficiency of SCGNNs, the comprehensive studies are accessible using the error histograms (EHs) investigations, state transitions (STs) values, MSE performances, regression measures, and correlation.

Cacao sustainability: The case of cacao swollen-shoot virus co-infection.

The cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) is among the most economically damaging diseases of cacao trees and accounts for almost 15-50% of harvest losses in Ghana. This virus is transmitted by several species of mealybugs (Pseudococcidae, Homoptera) when they feed on cacao plants. One of the mitigation strategies for CSSVD investigated at the Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG) is the use of mild-strain cross-protection of cacao trees against the effects of severe strains. In this study, simple deterministic, delay, and stochastic ordinary differential equation-based models to describe the dynamic of the disease and spread of the virus are suggested. Model parameters are estimated using detailed empirical data from CRIG. The modeling outcomes demonstrate a remarkable resemblance between real and simulated dynamics. We have found that models with delay approximate the data better and this agrees with the knowledge that CSSVD epidemics develop slowly. Also, since there are large variations in the data, stochastic models lead to better results. We show that these models can be used to gain useful informative insights about the nature of disease spread.

Prediction of C-reactive protein dynamics during meropenem treatment in neonates and infants.

C-reactive protein (CRP) is used to determine the effect of antibiotic treatment on sepsis in neonates/infants. We aimed to develop pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model of meropenem and CRP in neonates/infants and evaluate its predictive performance of CRP dynamics. Data from neonates/infants treated with meropenem in 3 previous studies were analysed. To the previously developed meropenem PK models, the addition of turnover, transit or effect compartment, delay differential equation PD models of CRP as a function of meropenem concentration or its cumulative area under the curve (AUC) were evaluated. The percentage of neonates/infants (P0.1 , P0.2 ) in whom the ratio of the fifth day CRP to its peak value was predicted with an error of <0.1 (<0.2) was calculated. A total of 60 meropenem treatment episodes (median [range] gestational age 27.6 [22.6-40.9] weeks, postnatal age 13 [2-89] days) with a total of 351 CRP concentrations (maximum value 65.5 [13-358.4] mg/L) were included. Turnover model of CRP as a function of meropenem cumulative AUC provided the best fit and included CRP at the start of treatment, use of prior antibiotics, study and causative agent Staphylococcus aureus or enterococci as covariates. Using meropenem population predictions and data available at 0, 24, 48, 72 h after the start of treatment, P0.1 (P0.2 ) was 36.4, 36.4, 60.6 and 66.7% (70.0, 66.7, 72.7 and 78.7%), respectively. The developed PKPD model of meropenem and CRP as a function of meropenem cumulative AUC incorporating several patient characteristics predicts CRP dynamics with an error of <0.2 in most neonates/infants.

Morlet Wavelet Neural Network Investigations to Present the Numerical Investigations of the Prediction Differential Model

In this study, a design of Morlet wavelet neural networks (MWNNs) is presented to solve the prediction differential model (PDM) by applying the global approximation capability of a genetic algorithm (GA) and local quick interior-point algorithm scheme (IPAS), i.e., MWNN-GAIPAS. The famous and historical PDM is known as a variant of the functional differential system that works as theopposite of the delay differential models. A fitness function is constructed by using the mean square error and optimized through the GA-IPAS for solving the PDM. Three PDM examples have been presented numerically to check the authenticity of the MWNN-GAIPAS. For the perfection of the designed MWNN-GAIPAS, the comparability of the obtained outputs and exact results is performed. Moreover, the neuron analysis is performed by taking 3, 10, and 20 neurons. The statistical observations have been performed to authenticate the reliability of the MWNN-GAIPAS for solving the PDM.

A novel radial basis procedure for the SIRC epidemic delay differential model

The purpose of this work is to construct a reliable stochastic framework for solving the SIRC delay differential epidemic system, i.e. SIRC-DDES that is based on the coronavirus dynamics. The design of radial basis (RB) transfer function with the optimization of Bayesian regularization neural network (RB-BRNN) is presented to solve the SIRC-DDES. The SIRC-DDES is classified into susceptible , infected , recovered and cross-immune . The exactness of the RB-BRNN is performed for three cases of SIRC-DDES by using the performances of the obtained and reference results. The mean square error is reduced by using the training, testing and substantiation performances with the reference solutions. The small values of the absolute error around 10−07 to 10−08 and different statistical operator performances based on the error histogram values, transitions of state investigations, correlation and regression tests also approve the accuracy of the proposed technique.

A design of novel Gudermannian neural networks for the nonlinear multi-pantograph delay differential singular model

In this paper, a new stochastic numerical platform through the Gudermannian neural network (GNN) based intelligent computing solver (GNNICS) is accessible for solving the nonlinear singular multi-pantograph delay differential (MP-DD) systems. In GNNICS, Gudermannian kernel is exploited to construct the neural network models of differential operators with different neurons for the nonlinear system along with the hybrid computing via global genetic algorithm (GA) and local refinements based active set (AS), i.e., GNN-GAAS method. A fitness function with GNN models is formulated for solving the MP-DD equation along with the optimization of design variables of the network using GAAS. To investigate the performance of the designed GNNICS based GNN-GAAS algorithm, three different variants of the MP-DD systems are used to assess the correctness, effectiveness, and robustness. The statistical investigations based on different performance are presented to authenticate the consistent accuracy, convergence, and stability of the designed GNN-GAAS algorithm. Furthermore, the negligible absolute error that are performed as 10−06 to 10−08 for solving the GNNICS based on GNN-GAAS algorithm.

Modelling the effect of travel-related policies on disease control in a meta-population structure.

Travel restrictions, while delaying the spread of an emerging disease from the source, could inflict substantial socioeconomic burden. Travel-related policies, such as quarantine and testing of travelers, may be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate the negative impact of travel bans. We developed a meta-population, delay-differential model to evaluate a strategy that combines testing of travelers prior to departure from the source of infection with quarantine and testing at exit from quarantine in the destination population. Our results, based on early parameter estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicate that testing travelers at exit from quarantine is more effective in delaying case importation than testing them before departure or upon arrival. We show that a 1-day quarantine with an exit test could outperform a longer, 3-day quarantine without testing in delaying the outbreak peak. Rapid, large-scale testing capacities with short turnaround times provide important means of detecting infectious cases and reducing case importation, while shortening quarantine duration for travelers at destination.

Hopf Bifurcation Analysis of a Continuous Investment Update Project Model

Some investment projects aim not only to produce goods but more importantly, to update and efficiently supply products in accordance with market demand. A double time delay differential dynamics model is formulated for continuous renewal investment projects based on the flowchart of the capital appreciation process and the assumed transfer functions. By analyzing the mathematical model, it can be determined that a unique local asymptotically stable positive equilibrium point exists for the continuous investment project. In accordance with the Hopf branching theorem, the model displays periodic behavior in proximity to its positive equilibrium point under certain conditions. The simulation results are compared under various conditions, and the validity of the relevant conclusions is confirmed.

Stability Analysis of a Mathematical Model for Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis from the Perspective of Physical and Health Integration

In this paper, we take physical and health integration as the entry point. Firstly, based on the transformation mechanism of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis we construct a time delay differential model. Moreover, using the theory of characteristic equation we discuss the stability of a positive equilibrium under the delays of τ=0 and τ≠0. Furthermore, through numerical simulation, it has been verified the delay, τ, exceeds a critical value, the positive equilibrium loses its stability and Hopf bifurcation occurs. Lastly, we determine that sports have a positive effect on adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, directly reducing the number of people with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Tunable, coherent optical comb source via on-chip bidirectional coupling.

A tunable comb source is demonstrated through gain switching on a three-sectioned photonic integrated circuit (PIC). The PIC consists of two mutually coupled lasers connected by a passive waveguide. One of these is a tunable, two-section, single mode laser. The second laser is a simple Fabry-Perot cavity laser which can be phase-locked with the single mode laser via bidirectional coupling. Frequency combs are produced by gain switching the Fabry-Perot laser by applying a high-power radio frequency signal. Combs are generated with line spacings ranging from 3.5 to 8 GHz. The on-chip bidirectional coupling causes the comb to also be generated in the two-section device. Despite the lack of on-chip optical isolation between the lasers, the resulting combs are stable. Numerical simulations using a delay-differential model reproduce the results and reveal the important role played by the short delay times inherent to on-chip integration in this stability.

Temporal Cavity Soliton Interaction in Passively Mode-Locked Semiconductor Lasers

Weak interactions of temporal cavity solitons resulting from gain saturation and recovery in a delay differential model of a long cavity semiconductor laser were studied numerically and analytically using an asymptotic approach. This paper shows that in addition to the usual soliton repulsion leading to a harmonic mode-locking regime, soliton attraction is also possible in a laser with a nonzero linewidth enhancement factor. It is shown numerically that this attraction can lead either to pulse merging or to pulse bound-state formation.

Mathematical Identification Analysis of a Fractional-Order Delayed Model for Tuberculosis

Extensive research was conducted on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis epidemics during its reemergence from the 1980s to the early 1990s, but this global problem of investigating tuberculosis spread dynamics remains of paramount importance. Our study utilized a fractional-order delay differential model to study tuberculosis transmission, where the time delay in the model was attributed to the disease’s latent period. What is more, this model accounts for endogenous reactivation, exogenous reinfection, and treatment of tuberculosis. The model qualitative properties and the basic reproduction number were analyzed. The primary goal of the study was to recover the important dynamic parameters of tuberculosis. Our understanding of these complex processes leverages the efficacy of efforts for controlling the disease, forecasting future dynamics, and applying further appropriate strategies to prevent its spread.The calibration itself was carried out via minimization of a quadratic cost functional. Computational simulations demonstrated that the algorithm is capable of working with noisy real data.

Fractional order delay differential model of a tumor-immune system with vaccine efficacy: Stability, bifurcation and control

The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model of tumor vaccine efficacy in the context of immunotherapy treatment. The model is governed by fractional-order delay differential equations with a control variable. Transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) inhibition alone gives limited clinical advantages, but when combined with a tumor vaccine, it can dramatically increase the immune system’s anti-tumor response. The mathematical model takes into account tumor growth dynamics, TGF-β concentrations, cytotoxic effector cells, and regulatory T-cells. The non-negativity of the solutions to such a model has been examined. The steady-state stability and Hopf bifurcation of tumor time delays τ are investigated. An optimal fractional-order control problem is derived and analyzed in the presence of immunotherapy treatments. Using Adams–Bashforth–Moulton predictor–corrector algorithms, we illustrate numerical examples that confirm the analytical findings. The optimal control treatment method reduces the load of tumor cells while increasing the effector cells.

Dynamic analysis of delayed vaccination process along with impact of retrial queues

Abstract An unprecedented and precise time-scheduled rollout for the vaccine is needed for an effective vaccination process. This study is based on the development of a novel mathematical model considering a delay in vaccination due to the inability to book a slot in one go for a system. Two models are proposed which involve a delay differential equation mathematical model whose dynamical analysis is done to show how the delay in vaccination can destabilize the system. Further, this delay led to the formulation of a queuing model that accounts for the need to retry for the vaccination at a certain rate as delay in vaccination can have negative repercussions. The transition rates from one stage to another follow an exponential distribution. The transient state probabilities of the model are acquired by applying the Runge-Kutta method and hence performance indices are also obtained. These performance measures include the expected number of people in various states. Finally, numerical analysis is also provided to validate both models. Our results would specifically focus on what happens if the delay time increases or if the retrial rate increases (delay time decreases). The results reveal that a delay in being vaccinated by the first dose (i.e., 80 days) leads to an unstable system whereas there exists a delay simultaneously in getting vaccinated by both doses that destabilize the system early (i.e., 80 and 120 days for dose one and two, respectively). The system destabilizes faster in the presence of a delay for slot booking for both doses as compared to one dose delay. Further, the numerical results of queuing models show that if the retrial rate increases in this delay time to book the slots, it not only increases in the vaccinated class but also increases the recovered population.