Degree Of Fluctuation Research Articles

Experimental and Simulation Studies on Fabricating GCr15/40Cr Bimetallic Compound Rollers Using Electroslag Surfacing with Liquid Metal Method

Electroslag surfacing with liquid metal (ESSLM) is an excellent method for producing high-quality bimetallic compound rollers. The quality of each compound roller is primarily determined by the metallurgical quality of the combined interface. A GCr15/40Cr compound roller is produced using an ESSLM non-consumable electrode electroslag heating method. The temperature and electric fields produced by the ESSLM system are calculated. As the roller core moves downward in the mold, it passes through five sections: the preheating section, the rapid heating section, the temperature homogenizing section, the bimetal fusing section and the cooling section which listed from the top to bottom of the mold, respectively. The temperature distribution and the degree of the surface temperature fluctuation in the roller core are different for each section. Near the combined interface, four layers are found from the roller core to the cladding layer: the remelting layer, the fusion layer, the interface solidification layer and the chilling layer, respectively. Among these, the fusion and interface solidification layers are the key transition zones that greatly influence the combination quality. The surface temperature of the roller core prior to cladding is mainly determined by the drawing velocity, and the thickness of the transition layer increases as the drawing velocity decreases. A transition layer that is too thick or too thin will reduce the mechanical properties at the combined interface. Therefore, the drawing velocity should be limited to a moderate range to produce a satisfactory bimetallic compound roller.

Prevention of new osteitis on magnetic resonance imaging in patients with early axial spondyloarthritis during 3 years of continuous treatment with etanercept: data of the ESTHER trial.

The aim of this study was to assess the degree of fluctuation of osteitis on MRI during long-term treatment with etanercept (ETN) in patients with early axial SpA (axSpA) with active inflammation (osteitis) on whole-body MRI in the spine and/or the SI joints at baseline. We analysed MRI data from 328 SI joint quadrants and 943 spine vertebral units (VUs) in terms of osteitis in the pooled data set of 41 patients who were treated with ETN for 3 consecutive years. Scoring was performed by two blinded radiologists at baseline, year 2 and year 3. Through years 2 and 3, osteitis on MRI resolved completely in 56 of 144 (38.9%) SI joint quadrants and in 20 of 40 (50%) VUs affected at baseline, while persistent osteitis was found in 24 of 144 (16.7%) SI joint quadrants and in 8 of 40 (20.0%) spine VUs. The development of new osteitis in sites that were free of osteitis at baseline only occurred in 2 of 131 (1.5%) SI joint quadrants and in 3 of 862 (0.4%) spine VUs in both year 2 and year 3. There was a consistently small amount of osteitis on MRI in patients with early axSpA compared with baseline values, and only a very low rate of new-onset osteitis was found during 3 years of continuous treatment with ETN. www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00844142.

Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis.

BackgroundAssessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies.MethodsIn this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called ‘evidence mapping’ can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies.ResultsEvidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model).ConclusionsMeta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates.

Optimal monetary policy rules, financial amplification, and uncertain business cycles

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in the presence of ‘uncertainty’, time-variation in cross-sectional dispersion of firms׳ productive performance. Using a model with financial market imperfections, the results suggest that (i) optimal policy is to dampen the strength of financial amplification by responding to uncertainty (at the expense of creating mild degree of fluctuations in inflation). (ii) Higher uncertainty makes the welfare-maximizing planner more willing to relax financial constraints. (iii) Credit spreads are a good proxy for uncertainty. Hence, a non-negligible response to credit spreads – together with a strong anti-inflationary policy stance – achieves the highest aggregate welfare possible.

Permeability study of ciprofloxacin from ultra-thin nanofibrous film through various mucosal membranes

Permeability plays an important role to achieve the desired therapeutic outcomes. Present study was designed to investigate the permeability of ciprofloxacin from ultrathin polyvinyl alcohol nanofiber through different biological membranes. Results of the permeability studies indicated that nanofibers exhibit higher drug permeability than plane drug. Intestinal tissue shows maximum permeability followed by eye, trachea, sublingual, rectal, and skin. Permeability studies also inferred a steady-state release of drug of the nanofiber, whereas a high degree of fluctuations was observed in plane drug. Nanofiber being 2D nanoscale material provides numerous advantages to be used as an encapsulated carrier system to improve the therapeutic effectiveness.

English

- This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT) Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (F i ) towards minimum factor of safety (F min ). The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern. Keywords: Rainfall pattern; Fluctuating intensity, Shallow failure mechanism; Slope failure; Rainwater infiltration.

MP74-10 VARIATION OF SERUM PROSTATE-SPECIFIC ANTIGEN LEVELS FOR MEN WITH PROSTATE CANCER MANAGED WITH ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE

You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Markers I1 Apr 2014MP74-10 VARIATION OF SERUM PROSTATE-SPECIFIC ANTIGEN LEVELS FOR MEN WITH PROSTATE CANCER MANAGED WITH ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE Behfar Ehdaie, Bing Ying Poon, Daniel Sjoberg, Andrew Vickers, Itay Sternberg, Vincent Laudone, Karim Touijer, James Eastham, and Peter Scardino Behfar EhdaieBehfar Ehdaie More articles by this author , Bing Ying PoonBing Ying Poon More articles by this author , Daniel SjobergDaniel Sjoberg More articles by this author , Andrew VickersAndrew Vickers More articles by this author , Itay SternbergItay Sternberg More articles by this author , Vincent LaudoneVincent Laudone More articles by this author , Karim TouijerKarim Touijer More articles by this author , James EasthamJames Eastham More articles by this author , and Peter ScardinoPeter Scardino More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2014.02.2343AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Serum PSA is frequently used in active surveillance (AS) programs for prostate cancer (PC) to recommend reclassification biopsy. We sought to determine the degree of fluctuations in PSA levels in patients on AS to better inform decisions for a man whose isolated change in PSA may raise concerns about disease progression. METHODS We examined 676 men diagnosed with PC from 1995 to 2011 who were managed with AS. Men were excluded from our study if they had fewer than 4 PSA results available. PSA variation was described by studying the frequency patients’ PSA level reached a threshold and then went below that level. The a priori threshold for PSA was 7ng/mL as this is the midpoint between the biopsy threshold (4ng/mL) and an accepted criterion for intermediate risk disease (10ng/mL). We repeated this analysis for the biopsy threshold of 4ng/mL. We also examined PSA variation by calculating the frequency that change in PSA across consecutive measurements was followed by an inverse change of equal or greater magnitude. To determine clinically meaningful variation, we used an increase of 1ng/mL that was followed by a decrease of equal magnitude across measurements. The association between each measure of variation and number of PSA measurements was assessed using linear regression. RESULTS In 541 men studied, the cumulative incidence of discontinuing AS for definitive treatment within 5 years was 13%. Among 251(46%) patients who reached a PSA of 7ng/mL, 186(74%) decreased from this threshold at least once. 417 (77%) patients reached a PSA of 4ng/mL but their PSA measurements fluctuated around this threshold less often. In patients who reached a PSA of 4ng/mL or 7ng/mL, the number of PSA measurements was significantly associated with the frequency of variation across each threshold (p<0.001). Examining PSA direction, 471 (87%) patients experienced at least one change in PSA direction and the frequency of these changes was significantly associated with the number of PSA measurements (p<0.001). 238 (44%) patients experienced a clinically meaningful change in PSA direction and the frequency of these changes was significantly associated with the number of PSA measurements (p<0.001), suggesting that these changes would be observed with continued follow up. CONCLUSIONS Among men with PC managed with AS, considerable variability in PSA levels exists. The frequency of changes in PSA direction, including clinically meaningful changes, increases with more PSA measurements. Therefore, an isolated change in PSA level should not be used as an indication for reclassification biopsy. © 2014FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 191Issue 4SApril 2014Page: e859-e860 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2014MetricsAuthor Information Behfar Ehdaie More articles by this author Bing Ying Poon More articles by this author Daniel Sjoberg More articles by this author Andrew Vickers More articles by this author Itay Sternberg More articles by this author Vincent Laudone More articles by this author Karim Touijer More articles by this author James Eastham More articles by this author Peter Scardino More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...

Effect of thermocouple time constant on sensing of temperature fluctuations in a fast reactor subassembly

Abstract. Knowledge of temperature fluctuations in fast reactor subassembly is very important from a safety point of view. The time constant of thermocouples which are used for measuring coolant temperature in a fast reactor varies owing to various factors. Hence, it becomes necessary to investigate the effect of change in the time constant on sensed fluctuations. This paper investigates the dependence of temperature fluctuations on thermocouple time constants. A Scilab model consisting of source temperature profile, second-order thermocouple and histogram calculation is designed. Simulation is performed for various levels of fluctuations, fixed and variable thermocouple time constants. Kurtosis for each condition is calculated with the help of a histogram. It is found that the effect of true source fluctuations on sensor output is very large compared to that of a similar percentage of time-constant variations. Hence in systems like fast reactors, where the degree of source fluctuations (fluid enthalpy) is large in comparison to that of time-constant variations, the overall effect can be considered with great confidence to be the outcome of coolant temperature rather than thermocouple time-constant variations.

The Effect of Rainfall Patterns on the Mechanisms of Shallow Slope Failure

Abstract - This paper examines how rainfall patterns affect the mechanisms of shallow slope failure. Numerical modelling, utilising the commercial software SVFlux and SVSlope, was carried out for a coupled analysis of rainfall-induced slope seepage and instability, with reference to a shallow landslide took place in Jabiru, Northern Territory (NT) Australia in 2007. Rainfall events were varied in terms of pattern in this analysis. The results revealed that slopes are sensitive to rainfall pattern when the rainfall intensity has a high degree of fluctuation at around the same value as that of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Average rainfall intensity at the beginning of a rainfall period plays a primary role in determining the rate of decrease in initial factor of safety (Fi) towards minimum factor of safety (Fmin). The effect of rainfall events on the slope instability is attributed to the amount of rainwater infiltration into slope associated with rainfall pattern. Keywords: Rainfall pattern; Fluctuating intensity, Shallow failure mechanism; Slope failure; Rainwater infiltration.

Photonic crystal nanocavity with a Q-factor of ~9 million

We have investigated absorption losses due to surface water adsorbed on the surface of silicon heterostructure nanocavities with quality (Q) factors of several million. Measurements performed while changing the ambient humidity that the nanocavity is exposed to show that the Q value depends linearly on humidity. We also reveal that chemical treatment to change the degree of hydrophilicity of the surface results in a drastic increase of Q; we have obtained an experimental value of 9 million, which represents a new record for a heterostructure nanocavity. We analytically determine the absolute value of absorption loss by exploiting the degree of fluctuation of Q values between different samples.

A Retrospective, Hospital-Based Study to Determine the Incidence of Rotavirus Hospitalizations among Children Less than 5 Years of Age over a 10-Year Period (2001^|^ndash;2011) in Akita Prefecture, Japan

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children worldwide. This retrospective, cross-sectional study was undertaken in a sentinel hospital that provides the only pediatric beds for the local population with an average of 4,400 children aged <5 years and determined the incidence of rotavirus hospitalizations. Medical charts that recorded acute gastroenteritis cases occurring in children aged <5 years living in the cites of Yuri-Honjo or Nikaho, Akita, Japan between 2001 and 2011 were retrieved and examined to enumerate rotavirus antigen-positive hospitalizations. Of the 1,596 acute gastroenteritis cases retrieved, antigen detection was performed in 834 cases, and 387 were positive; hence, the crude annual incidence rate of rotavirus hospitalizations was 8.8 per 1,000 person-years. The adjusted annual incidence rate of rotavirus hospitalizations was 13.7 per 1,000 person-years when untested samples collected during the peak season were extrapolated to the same rotavirus detection proportion as the tested samples (58.9%). We confirmed a high incidence of rotavirus hospitalizations in Akita Prefecture and revealed a considerable degree of annual fluctuation in the rotavirus hospitalization rates, which exceeded the degree of stochastic fluctuation. Thus, caution must be exercised when interpreting the impact of a rotavirus vaccine on the reduction of the number of rotavirus hospitalizations.

Fertilisation, cattle grazing and voles: collapse of meadow vole populations in young forests?

Context A puzzling aspect of microtine population fluctuations is the damping out or collapsing of cycles over the last three decades, particularly in northern Europe. Occasional population fluctuations of Microtus may also have been damped out in temperate and boreal forests of the Pacific North-west of North America. One cause might be the presence of cattle (Bos taurus) grazing in forest habitats that offer summer forage. Aims We tested hypotheses (H) that abundance, population fluctuations, and demographic parameters of reproduction, recruitment and survival, of Microtus pennsylvanicus would be driven by understory plant productivity. Two predictions follow from this hypothesis: (H1) enhanced abundance and demography in fertilised stands, and (H2) reduced abundance and demography in stands with cattle grazing. Methods Study areas were located in ‘grazed’ and ‘ungrazed’ young forests in south-central British Columbia, Canada. Each study area had four replicate units of unfertilised and repeatedly fertilised stands. Herbaceous vegetation and meadow vole (M. pennsylvanicus) populations were sampled from 1993 to 2002. Key results Mean abundance of total herbs, grasses, and fireweed (Epilobium angustifolium) increased dramatically (8 to 34 times higher) with fertilisation in the ungrazed stands. Mean abundance of meadow voles was 3.1 to 8.5 times higher in the nutrient-enriched herbaceous vegetation in the ungrazed fertilised than grazed fertilised stands. Demographic variables also followed this pattern of abundance. Except for two years, mean abundance of meadow voles was similar between fertilised and unfertilised stands at the grazed area, with some degree of fluctuations generated in grazed stands. Thus, H1 and H2 were at least partly supported for M. pennsylvanicus in fertilised stands. Conclusions In high-quality habitats where cover and other attributes of vegetation are substantial enough to generate population increases and fluctuations of Microtus, grazing of vegetation by cattle or other livestock may indeed lead to potential collapse of fluctuations. Degree of grazing pressure would be crucial, but considering the widespread nature of grazing in the continuum of post-harvest forested sites in the Pacific North-west of North America, moderate to heavy grazing pressure is common. Implications Reductions in populations of microtines have serious consequences for predator communities and other ecological functions.

The Industrial Relations of Logistics Industry—Based on China’s 2010 Input-Output Table

The paper explores the intrinsic link between logistics industry, national economy and three industries by using Chinese input-output table of 2010. It shows that logistics industry has the strongest inquiry and need on secondary industry; next is itself and the last is Agriculture. Second, the influence coefficient of logistics industry is after the second industry radiation ability; its status in national economy is strong and has become the dominant industry of national economic development. Furthermore, the degree of fluctuation for logistics industry is small, and its restriction role and bottleneck effect are obvious for national economy. Moreover, logistics industry is a sector with strong radiation and weak constraints and its promotion effect on national economy is more pronounced than that of national economy on itself.

A cell-model study on counterion fluctuations in macroionic systems: effect of non-extensiveness in entropy

Rigorously speaking, entropy is slightly non-extensive, and this non-extensiveness, which characterizes the degree of fluctuations, can contribute to effective interactions between mesoscopic objects. In this paper, we consider a pair of macroions, each accompanied by 1000 counterions, and with a cell-model description we demonstrate that the slow variation of non-extensiveness in counterion entropy over macroionic distance leads to an effective long-range attraction between the macroions. With the aid of Monte Carlo simulation and a Bragg-Williams theory including counterion number fluctuations, we find the depth of attraction in free energy to be approximately 0.2k(B)T. The observation in our cell-model study provides an insight for further understanding of effective interactions in real macroionic systems.

Study of methods for evaluating the probability of multiple site damage occurrences

Two methods currently available for evaluating the probability of Multiple Site Damage (MSD) occurrence were studied in this paper. One of the methods is a probabilistic analysis approach based on the statistical theory and fatigue characteristics of each structural detail, and the other is an approach which defines the initial damage scenario by means of Monte-Carlo simulation, and multiple initial crack scenarios are randomly generated. A modified method based on the Monte-Carlo simulation was proposed in this paper, in which the random fluctuation of the stress was considered to give more accurate evaluation results. In the presented method, the probability of MSD occurrence in a structural element containing multiple details was calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation and the p-S-N curve of a single structural detail. Fatigue tests were accomplished using specimens containing 21-similar-details to obtain the fatigue life corresponding to MSD occurrence. Tests on single-detail specimens and static calibration tests were also conducted to get the basic fatigue properties of the material and the degree of stress fluctuation. The aforementioned three methods were compared and validated via the test results. The influence of the stress random fluctuation degree on the probability of MSD occurrence and influence of the distribution types on evaluating the MSD occurrence probability were discussed. Multiple Site Damage (MSD), fatigue crack initiation, probability, stress fluctuation

Complementary pharmacokinetic measures to further define the profile of once-daily OROS hydromorphone ER during single-dose and steady-state dosing

Conventional measures such as maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) and area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) may be insufficient to fully describe the pharmacokinetic (PK) profile of extended-release (ER) formulations. A complementary measure, the half-value duration (HVD), corresponds to the period of time during a dosing cycle that plasma concentration is at or above half the value of the maximal concentration (i.e. ≥50% Cmax). The current post-hoc analysis uses data from 2 previously published studies comparing the PK profiles and HVD of OROS hydromorphone ER (16 mg administered once daily) and immediate-release (IR) hydromorphone (4 mg administered every 6 hours), calculating single-dose and steady-state condition values. Bioequivalence was demonstrated between the 2 formulations. Mean steady-state once-daily OROS hydromorphone ER concentrations were elevated for most of the 24-hour dosing period and for significantly longer than with the dose-equivalent IR hydromorphone regimen. The duration of time spent ≥50% Cmax was, on average, 2.7 times longer at steady state for the ER formulation, which also maintained steady-state hydromorphone plasma concentrations, with 65% lower mean degree of fluctuation versus IR hydromorphone. Both formulations appeared to be well tolerated.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2193-1801-2-625) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Study of Project Duration Risk in the Network Diagram Based on Matrix Algorithm

The probable route sets in the network diagram were calculated by adjacency matrix method, and based on the assumption that activity becoming the key obeyed 0-1 distribution, a probable route matrix was established. A random variable matrix was structed by monte carlo simulation under condition of activity time independent distribution. A matrix algorithm model was built by isolating activity times impact on activity becoming the key for the first time. This model with a simple and optimal algorithm avoided the computation complexity of network planning time parameter, to evaluate project duration risk rapidly and statistical analyze the probability of activity becoming the key and the influence degree of activity time fluctuation impacting on project duration, providing theoretical and data support for decisions. Empirical research on a tunnel engineering project verified its practicability and feasibility, providing a new powerful tool for assessing project duration risk in the network diagram quickly.

Environmental Forcing Shapes Regional House Mosquito Synchrony in a Warming Temperate Island

Seasonal changes in the abundance of exothermic organisms can be expected with climate change if warmer temperatures can induce changes in their phenology. Given the increased time for ectothermic organism development at lower temperatures, we asked whether population dynamics of the house mosquito, Culex pipiens s.l. (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae), in Jeju-do (South Korea), an island with a gradient of warming temperatures from north to south, showed differences in sensitivity to changes in temperature along the warming gradient. In addition, we asked whether synchrony, that is, the degree of concerted fluctuations in mosquito abundance across locations, was affected by the temperature gradient. We found the association of mosquito abundance with temperature to be delayed by 2 wk in the north when compared with the south. The abundance across all our sampling locations had a flat synchrony profile that could reflect impacts of rainfall and average temperature on the average of all our samples. Finally, our results showed that population synchrony across space can emerge even when abundance is differentially impacted by an exogenous factor across an environmental gradient.

FRI0423 Effective prevention of new inflammatory bony lesions on magnetic resonance imaging in patients with early axial spondyloarthritis during treatment with etanercept over 2 years - data of the esther trial

ObjectivesIn patients with early axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) with a disease duration of less than 5 years and evidence of active inflammation on whole-body magnetic reonance imaging (MRI) in the spine...

Simulations of the intermediate bandwidth fluctuations in nanostructured PV

The size dispersion and distributions of quantum dot nanoparticles (sizes from 2–5nm) embedded in the active region of the intermediate band solar cells are important to reach the high efficiencies. An optimized size and regularity can increase the efficiency due largely to avoided non-radiative transitions which can originate from the fluctuations in the bandwidth of the intermediate layer. In this work, we propose all the energy band diagrams possible in the formation of such a cell. Five equivalent band diagrams of the cells with different size dispersions and regularity of quantum dots are considered and compared with the reported experimental profiles in the literature. Furthermore, the degree of the size fluctuation is considered by proposing a fluctuation degree for the band gap and sub-band gaps of the cell. These proposed profiles and the fluctuation theory are exploited to consider the experimental data reported in literature. The optimized size dispersion will increase the photocurrent of the cell. We believe that every quantum dot solar cell will fall into one of the proposed band diagrams. This approach gives foresight to the theoretical studies of such devices and expectation from the energy band structure and band widths since it considers the fluctuation of the band widths for the intermediate band separately.