Defense Nuclear Agency Research Articles

Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi (India): Interdisciplinary Requirements in Triage Management.

The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system with significant innovation in interdisciplinary disaster management applicable generally to urban nuclear detonation medical response. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI’s ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency’s WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s (DTRA’s) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kt detonations and a single 1 mt (1000 kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Of particular importance is the interdisciplinary cooperation necessary for such a large-scale emergency response event, which would be exemplified by efforts such as the application of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce.

Nuclear war between Israel and Iran: lethality beyond the pale

BackgroundThe proliferation of nuclear technology in the politically volatile Middle East greatly increases the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear war. It is widely accepted, while not openly declared, that Israel has nuclear weapons, and that Iran has enriched enough nuclear material to build them. The medical consequences of a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel in the near future are envisioned, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments.MethodsModel estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. Further development for thermal burn casualties was based on Brode, as modified by Binninger, to calculate thermal fluence. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data.ResultsTrauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for three Israeli and eighteen Iranian cities. Nuclear weapon detonations in the densely populated cities of Iran and Israel will result in an unprecedented millions of numbers of dead, with millions of injured suffering without adequate medical care, a broad base of lingering mental health issues, a devastating loss of municipal infrastructure, long-term disruption of economic, educational, and other essential social activity, and a breakdown in law and order.ConclusionsThis will cause a very limited medical response initially for survivors in Iran and Israel. Strategic use of surviving medical response and collaboration with international relief could be expedited by the predicted casualty distributions and locations. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Any rational analysis of a nuclear war between Iran and Israel reveals the utterly unacceptable outcomes for either nation.

Review of the Development of Cap Models for Geomaterials

The history of the development of Cap constitutive models is reviewed. The Cap family of models provides a powerful, yet adaptable way of representing many aspects of the dynamic stress-strain behavior of geological materials. These models have been extensively used for more than three decades to characterize the highly nonlinear behavior of soils, rocks and concrete, and are particularly well suited to the dynamic analysis arising in ground shock and seismic applications. The modern series of Cap Models is based on the adaptation of several earlier models, and was introduced in the early 1970’s as a result of university and corporate R&D technology development sponsored by the United States government. Dr. Eugene Sevin played a role in these activities during his tenure at the Defense Nuclear Agency. In this paper, the basic behavior of the early models is briefly discussed and compared, and the reasons for the introduction of Cap Models are outlined. Many adaptations of the Cap Model have been developed since the first model was introduced, and the salient features of some of these model extensions are also reviewed.

High‐latitude upgrade to the Wideband ionospheric scintillation model

The high‐latitude sections of the Wideband ionospheric scintillation model (WBMOD) have been upgraded extensively, based on analysis of scintillation data from the Defense Nuclear Agency Wideband, HiLat, and Polar BEAR satellite‐beacon experiments. Data collected at Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland; Tromso, Norway; Fort Churchill, Canada; and Bellevue, Washington (United States) over a 4‐year period were analyzed, and the results of these analyses were used to construct a completely new model for the behavior of the height‐integrated irregularity‐strength parameter (CkL) at high latitudes. The new high‐latitude CkL model includes variations with sunspot number, geomagnetic activity (Kp), latitude, local time, longitude, and season. The new WBMOD CkL models (equatorial and high‐latitude) have been implemented in a more versatile code, denoted SCINTMOD, which has the capability to generate a wide range of user‐controlled maps of scintillation effects over large spatial areas. Examples of the types of graphical output that SCINTMOD can generate are presented.

Superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) utility application studies

The results of a study performed with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (USA) to assess the benefits of superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) for electric utility applications are presented. The study was conducted for the US Defense Nuclear Agency and the Department of Energy as part of their efforts to develop SMES for military and civilian applications. The technical benefits of the SMES and alternative technology options and the economic value of those benefits were determined for two stability-related cases.

The first generation in the development and testing of full-scale, electric gun-launched, hypervelocity projectiles

On August 31, 1988, the full-scale, hypervelocity projectile of tactical mass and flight configuration was launched successfully from the U.S. Green Farm 90-mm electromagnetic railgun. Advances since that first in the ability to use electric energy to supply either part of the propulsive force (i.e., part electrical energy and part chemical energy) or all of the propulsive force to gun-launch lethal projectiles have successfully resolved most critical issues. This paper provides an archival overview of that progress by reviewing the development and test results of five (5) full-scale, hypervelocity projectile prototypes and twelve (12) integrated launch package combinations that have been successfully interfaced and launched from: the U.S. Army Armament Research, Development and Engineering Center (ARDEC) Tasks B and C, the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) Green Farm and Great Britain's Defense Research Agency (DRA) Kirkcudbright 90-mm, 9-MJ electromagnetic railguns; the ARDEC/USMC 17/spl times/39-mm, 0.23-MJ electromagnetic railgun; the United Defense 30-mm, 0.3-MJ electrothermal-chemical gun; and the Diehl GmbH 30-mm, 0.3-MJ liquid-electrothermal gun. In addition, several unique hypervelocity projectiles that were developed and launched from two-stage light gas guns and advanced conventional powder guns, in support of electric gun-launched projectile development, are included for subject completeness.

Doubly asymptotic approximations for transient elastodynamics

Considerable progress has been made in performing time-harmonic response computations for bodies surrounded by unbounded acoustic fluid and solid media. However, computational impracticality has hindered progress in transient response analysis, which has motivated the development of approximate approaches. A doubly asymptotic approximation (DAA) is an approximate temporal impedance relation at the boundary of a continuous medium; it approaches exactness at both early and late times, effecting a smooth transition in between. Here, first- and second-order DAAs are derived for a uniform, isotropic, elastic medium of either infinite or semi-infinite extent. Following boundary-element semidiscretization, either of these approximations provides a computational boundary for a finite-element model of a ground-shock-excited structure and, if desired, surrounding soil island. The derivations proceed from pertinent singly asymptotic approximations and employ the method of operator matching previously used for acoustic fluid domains. A simple problem with spherical symmetry is considered that illustrates the characteristics of the singly and doubly asymptotic approximations. [Work supported by the Defense Nuclear Agency.]

Opportunities at ARPA, NSF, and elsewhere

We first report the relatively minor development on the federal budget. We then touch upon announcements from ARPA, NSF, Defense Nuclear Agency, Rome Laboratory, US Special Operations Command, and Office of National Drug Control Policy. We also report a recent ARPA reorganization.

Behavior of a steel liner-and-bolts system under very high thermal and mechanical loading

This paper describes the execution of the CONVEX Liner Add-On to the DIAMOND FORTUNE low-yield cavity test of the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA). CONVEX stands for COntained Nuclear Vessel EXperiment. It is a joint concept to three Department of Energy Laboratories (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories) and the DNA. It concerns the design of underground chambers where repeated low-yield nuclear explosions could be conducted. The approach proposed by the first author in the early 1980s was to engineer a steel-lined rock cavern where the steel liner would be pre-stressed against the rock by tendons and/or bolts. These would daylight in tunnels surrounding the main cavity. From there, they could be initially tensioned, and retensioned if needed, after each test. The CONVEX Liner Add-On to DIAMOND FORTUNE consisted of anchoring a 1.4m square, 2.5 cm thick steel plate to the wall of the cavity, using a 5.08 cm dia center bolt and four 2.54 cm dia corner bolts. The bolts daylighted in a “run-around” drift surrounding the cavity, and separated from it by a 9 m thick rock pillar. The liner plate, the bolts and the rock pillar were equipped with 23 gages to describe the thermal and mechanical response of the system during pretensioning, during the dynamic loading phase, and post-test. Particular emphasis was given to obtaining the response both upon loading and during the rebound of the system, in order to determine whether the plate ever separated from the rock. So, the main operational objectives of this project were to acquire response data of the system under nuclear loading and to ascertain the status of contact between the steel plate and the rock, as shown by plate-rock contact pressure data and bolt tension data. The instrumentation and data acquisition system performed extremely well. Data were recorded during the dynamic phase; plate temperature was monitored for several hours after the test; and the remaining tension was obtained run-around drift. The test data indicated that the operational objectives had been met and that the concept of a steel-lined rock cavity could provide for reusable test beds for repeated low yield nuclear events. The results of this experiment can be used to guide the design of liner systems subjected to very high mechanical and thermal loads.

Summary of the DNA SMES development program

In 1987 the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) initiated a program at the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) to develop superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) as a short-duration, high-power source for a Free-Electron Laser-Directed Energy Weapon. SMES was also recognized as being able to fulfill the important civilian electric utility application of diurnal storage. In 1986 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) had proposed an engineering test model (ETM) as the logical next step in SMES development. Since the military and civilian requirements for energy storage were similar, the SMES ETM development was proposed as a dual-use program from the outset. DNA was selected to manage the program because of its experience in managing the development of high-power nuclear-effects simulators. This paper summarizes the management results and conclusions of the two-phase SMES-ETM development program. >

Description of the Chronic Radiation Syndrome in Humans Irradiated in the Former Soviet Union

The purpose of this letter is to call attention to the availability of a technical report on the chronic radiation syndrome (CRS) which may be obtained from the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute (AFRRI). Pursuant to facilitating communications between radiation scientists in the United States and the former Soviet Union, AFRRI and the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) have provided small amounts of funding for scientists in the former Soviet Union to conduct pilot experiments or to pursue critical archiving documentation and/or analysis of existing data. The overarching goal was to augment the process whereby important newly available data or ideas could be communicated outside the former Soviet Union for evalua-

Material properties testing using high explosives

The Defense Nuclear Agency has conducted several high explosive (HE) phenomenology tests in the past five years, using explosive weights at or below 1000 pounds, to improve the capability of computer codes to predict weapon effects. One of the interesting results of this series of tests is the major improvement in determining material properties of the concrete, soil, or sand in the testbed. This has permitted a more accurate definition of the equation-of-state (EOS) for the material in question, and thus, improved modeling capabilities over a broader range of weapon effects.

Determining the effects of space debris impacts on spacecraft structures

The collision hazard to space systems from trackable orbital debris has doubled over the last 15 years in some regions of low Earth orbit. Yet the hazard from nontrackable debris may be even more severe in some Earth orbits. Thousands of orbiting objects too small to be tracked reliably may damage or destroy space hardware via hypervelocity collision, resulting in mission degradation or termination and generated debris. An understanding of the modes by which a small impactor collides and interacts with a massive complex structure is required to: (1) accurately determine the present debris environment, (2) quantify the operational lifetime of satellites, and (3) predict the future environment. The Defense Nuclear Agency has initiated the DoD Spacecraft Breakup Modeling Program to improve the accuracy and usefulness of satellite breakup models, with an emphasis on collision-induced events. The breakup modeling approach fits into three broad categories: empirical, semianalytic, and complex. This model development effort is being conducted in parallel with an experimental HyperVelocity Impact (HVI) test program to produce accurate data required to develop and validate the breakup models. Current results from the breakup modeling effort are presented and discussed, along with data from the associated HVI impact test program.

Space‐based radar coherent processing during scintillation: VHF through L band

Data taken during the Defense Nuclear Agency's Wideband Satellite experiment are analyzed to determine the impact of ionospheric scintillation on coherent integration performance of a space‐based radar (SBR). These analyses use a subset of the experimental data base from Kwajalein and Ancon in 1977 and from Kwajalein in 1979. The 1977 measurements are compared to those of 1979, which were closer to the peak of the solar cycle. Under assumptions that are appropriate for strong scintillation the one‐way propagation data from the experiment are transformed into data appropriate to a two‐way, SBR geometry; measured values of the coherent integration loss are calculated; and an analytical expression for the coherent integration loss is obtained. The analytical result is shown to provide a good fit to the experimentally generated, two‐way measurements for strong scintillation.

ALTAIR VHF/UHF observations of multipath and backscatter enhancement

During the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) PEAK (propagation effects assessment-Kwajalein) experiment in August 1988, the ALTAIR VHF/UHF wide bandwidth radar was used to track spherical satellites in low-earth orbit. The purpose of the experiment was to obtain radar data during the most severe natural propagation disturbances. The PEAK experiment was successful, giving many measurements of strong scintillation as well as the first measurements of frequency-selective fading on propagating radar pulses. Experimental results are used to demonstrate an enhancement, due to scattering, in the average received power that is observed during severe scintillation. The observed statistics of the enhancement are compared to analytic calculations using the Nakagami-m distribution with very good agreement.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

Summary of the 1990 IEEE International Nuclear and Space Radiation Effects Conference and Short Course

The 27th IEEE International Conference on Nuclear and Space Radiation Effects was held on July 16-20, 1990 at Bally's Hotel in Reno, Nevada. The 1990 IEEE NSREC was sponsored by the IEEE/NPSS Radiation Effects Committee and co-sponsored by the Defense Nuclear Agency, Sandia National Laboratories, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. A short course was presented on the first day, followed by three and one-half days of technical sessions. The attendance was 416 for the short course and 611 for the technical sessions. People from 12 countries participated in this year's conference. There were 71 registrants from countries other than the United States.

Canadian Mass Fire Experiment, 1989

Working with Forestry Canada and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, the Defense Nuclear agency carried out an extensively instrumented experiment of a prescribed burn in forest debris to simulate conditions of a mass fire. In addition to the Canadian team, a multi- institutional US team made both ground and airborne measurements of the fire and smoke conditions. The fire reported on was in Hill Township, Ontario and covered nearly 480 ha in its overall burning area. Both flaming and smoldering modes contributed to the energy and combustion products of this fire. Significant quantities measured and determined included estimations of energy release rate, emission factors for smoke particulates and species, ground level wind and temperatures, and aspects of cloud dynamics and cloud particles. The fire caused a capping cloud to form and reach a level of 6.5 km. Rain, snow, hail and lightning were reported along with ground level fire whirls and water spouts on the adjoining lakes. Fire spread rates re...

Building expert systems with KNACK

KNACK is an automated, specialized knowledge acquisition tool to generate expert systems that assist with different classes of reporting tasks. KNACK has been used by knowledge engineers to produce a series of reporting systems. Whenever such a system revealed inadequacies, KNACK was used to improve it. If individual task requirements could not be realized with KNACK, the knowledge base was manually enhanced. This paper summarizes the experience gained and outlines the scope of the current KNACK tool. It characterizes the application systems built, relates data on KNACK's performance to the defined characteristics, identifies shortcomings, and suggests directions along which to extend KNACK. ‡ ‡ This research was sponsored by the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA) and the Harry Diamond Laboratories (HDL) under contract DNA001-85-C-0027, the Bares Foundation, Boeing Computer Services (BCS), and Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of DNA, HDL, the Bares Foundation, BCS, or DEC.

Why not Now?

On March 11, at the annual national meeting of Physicians for Social Responsibility in Palo Alto, California, Theodore B. Taylor and Sidney Drell debated the resolution that nuclear weapons should be abolished by the year 2000. Taylor, formerly of Los Alamos and the Defense Nuclear Agency, supported the resolution, while Drell, deputy director of the Stanford Linear Accelerator and codirector of the Stanford University Center for International Security and Arms Control, presented the negative argument. After formal presentations and rebuttals, the floor was open for questions, which were directed alternately to the two speakers. Edited excerpts of the debate follow.In his opening remarks, moderator Herbert L. Abrams suggested a parallel to the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1854–58 on the abolition of slavery. Out of that deep national controversy emerged a destructive war and a resolution of the most critical human rights problem of the nineteenth century. In the closing years of the twentieth century, he contended, nuclear weapons confront the world with choices of equal significance and far greater destructive potential. Debating the proposition that Reagan and Gorbachev nearly adopted at Reykjavik in 1986 —that nuclear weapons should be abolished by the year 2000—might clarify the nature and complexity of the problem.

The National Atomic Museum, Albuquerque, New Mexico: Where "Weapon Shapes" Are Not Enough

Adobe buildings, Native American artifacts, and flat, dry landscapes punctuated by stubborn mesas-these are among the elements that determine one's initial impression of northern New Mexico, and it is from them that the country gains something of its timeless quality. But our own century has had an impact here, too; after all, Los Alamos, the birthplace of atomic weaponry, is one of the larger towns in the area. And not far away is a museum devoted to these weapons, the National Atomic Museum. The National Atomic Museum is located within the confines of Kirtland Air Force Base, southeast of downtown Albuquerque. To get to it, one has to enter the base through a checkpoint cut into an imposing fence. That done, there is little danger of missing the museum, marked as it is by an outdoor display of missiles, heavy artillery, and a gigantic B-52 bomber. These details of the museum's immediate context are not irrelevant; rather, they help in understanding the tone of the exhibits inside and the virtual absence of anything beyond a strictly military context. The museum was opened in 1969 under the aegis of the Defense Nuclear Agency, then was transferred to the Department of Energy in 1976. This may explain the presence of newer exhibits treating nuclear energy in more general terms. But the museum's core remains a display dating from the opening twenty years ago, a display of unclassified nuclear weapon shapes. This odd phrase, which appears in a museum flier, is striking in its aggressive neutrality. As it turns out, however, the words appear to have been chosen carefully. The exhibit's backdrop includes photographs and brief labels, mounted on walls into which are set a number of television monitors