Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Research Articles

Formation of polar ionospheric tongue of ionization during minor geomagnetic disturbed conditions

AbstractPrevious investigations of ionospheric storm‐enhanced density (SED) and tongue of ionization (TOI) focused mostly on the behavior of TOI during intense geomagnetic storms. Little attention has been paid to the spatial and temporal variations of TOI during weak to moderate geomagnetic disturbed conditions. In this paper we investigate the source and development of TOI during a moderate geomagnetic storm on 14 October 2012. Multi‐instrumental observations including GPS total electron content (TEC), Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) in situ measured total ion concentration and ion drift velocity, SuperDARN measured polar ion convection patterns, and electron density profiles from the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) have been utilized in the current analysis. GPS TEC maps show salient TOI structures persisting for about 5 h over high latitudes of North America on 14 October 2012 in the later recovery phase of the storm when the magnitudes of IMF By and Bz were less than 5 nT. The PFISR electron density profiles indicate that the extra ionization for TEC enhancements mainly occurred in the topside ionosphere with no obvious changes in the bottomside ionosphere and vertical plasma drifts. Additionally, there were no signatures of penetration electric fields in the equatorial electrojet data and upward ion drifts at high latitudes. At the same time, strong subauroral polarization streams with ion drift speeds exceeding 2.5 km/s carried sunward fluxes and migrated toward lower latitudes for about 5° based on the DMSP cross‐track drift measurements. Based on those measurements, we postulate that the combined effects of initial build‐up of ionization at midlatitudes through daytime production of ionization and equatorward (or less poleward than normal daytime) neutral wind reducing downward diffusion along the inclined filed lines, and an expanded polar ion convection pattern and its associated horizontal plasma transport are important in the formation of the TOI.

Analysis of urban growth and estimating population density using satellite images of nighttime lights and land-use and population data

We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion in Japan from 1990 to 2006 by using gridded land-use data, population census data, and satellite images of nighttime lights. First, we mapped Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime lights and land-use data onto the 1 km2 grid cell system of Japan to determine the proportional areas of DMSP and urban land use within each grid cell. Then, we investigated the relationships among population density, DMSP, and urban area. The urban/built-up area was strongly positively correlated with population density, and rapid expansion of the urban/built-up area around megacities was associated with population increases. In contrast, population density dropped steeply in rural areas and in small towns. Statistical analysis showed that correlation coefficients between population density and DMSP increased as the DMSP nighttime lights brightness value increased. We next estimated population density in the Hokkaido region using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. Numerical evaluation of the results showed that the combination of land-use data and DMSP could be used to predict the population density. Finally, we compared OLS and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for Sapporo city, Hokkaido. Compared with the OLS, the GWR can improve predictions of population density.

Occurrence of equatorial spread F during intense geomagnetic storms

AbstractEquatorial spread F (ESF) has been observed in response to the prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric field to equatorial latitudes during intense (minimum Dst ≤ −100 nT; Bz ≤ −10 nT for at least 3 h) magnetic storms using global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) over nearly one solar cycle (1996–2005). Geostationary amplitude scintillation observations from Calcutta at VHF and L band for 1996–2005 and GPS amplitude scintillation measurements during 2004–2005 from the Indian Satellite Based Augmentation System Geostationary and GPS Navigation Outlay (GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation) network of stations all over India have been used to corroborate the DMSP observations. Subsequent to the time of southward interplanetary magnetic field Bz crossing −10 nT for an intense storm, it has been observed that within 4 h, ESF is generated at a longitude where the local time is dusk.

The MAGIC of CINEMA: first in-flight science results from a miniaturised anisotropic magnetoresistive magnetometer

Abstract. We present the first in-flight results from a novel miniaturised anisotropic magnetoresistive space magnetometer, MAGIC (MAGnetometer from Imperial College), aboard the first CINEMA (CubeSat for Ions, Neutrals, Electrons and MAgnetic fields) spacecraft in low Earth orbit. An attitude-independent calibration technique is detailed using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), which is temperature dependent in the case of the outboard sensor. We show that the sensors accurately measure the expected absolute field to within 2% in attitude mode and 1% in science mode. Using a simple method we are able to estimate the spacecraft's attitude using the magnetometer only, thus characterising CINEMA's spin, precession and nutation. Finally, we show that the outboard sensor is capable of detecting transient physical signals with amplitudes of ~ 20–60 nT. These include field-aligned currents at the auroral oval, qualitatively similar to previous observations, which agree in location with measurements from the DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) and POES (Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites) spacecraft. Thus, we demonstrate and discuss the potential science capabilities of the MAGIC instrument onboard a CubeSat platform.

Regional Urban Extent Extraction Using Multi-Sensor Data and One-Class Classification

Stable night-time light data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Line-scan System (OLS) provide a unique proxy for anthropogenic development. This paper presents a regional urban extent extraction method using a one-class classifier and combinations of DMSP/OLS stable night-time light (NTL) data, MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, and land surface temperature (LST) data. We first analyzed how well MODIS NDVI and LST data quantify the properties of urban areas. Considering that urban area is the only class of interest, we applied the one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) to classify different combinations of the three datasets. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method and compared with the locally optimized threshold method in regional urban extent mapping in China. The experimental results demonstrate that DMSP/OLS NTL data, MODIS NDVI and LST data provide different but complementary information sources to quantify the urban extent at a regional scale. The results also indicate that the OCSVM classification of the combination of all three datasets generally outperformed the locally optimized threshold method. The proposed method effectively and efficiently extracted the urban extent at a regional scale, and is applicable to other study areas.

Inverse procedure for high‐latitude ionospheric electrodynamics: Analysis of satellite‐borne magnetometer data

AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of data from the magnetometers on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F‐15, F‐16, F‐17, and F‐18 satellites and the Iridium satellite constellation, using an inverse procedure for high‐latitude ionospheric electrodynamics, during the period of 29–30 May 2010. The Iridium magnetometer data are made available through the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) program. The method presented here is built upon the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics procedure but with a more complete treatment of the prior model uncertainty to facilitate an optimal inference of complete polar maps of electrodynamic variables from irregularly distributed observational data. The procedure can provide an objective measure of uncertainty associated with the analysis. The cross‐validation analysis, in which the DMSP data are used as independent validation data sets, suggests that the procedure yields the spatial prediction of DMSP perturbation magnetic fields from AMPERE data alone with a median discrepancy of 30–50 nT. Discrepancies larger than 100 nT are seen in about 20% of total samples, whose location and magnitude are generally consistent with the previously identified discrepancy between DMSP and AMPERE data sets. Resulting field‐aligned current (FAC) patterns exhibit more distinct spatial patterns without spurious high‐frequency oscillatory features in comparison to the FAC products provided by AMPERE. Maps of the toroidal magnetic potential and FAC estimated from both AMPERE and DMSP data under four distinctive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions during a magnetic cloud event demonstrate the IMF control of high‐latitude electrodynamics and the opportunity for future scientific investigation.

Response of the ionospheric convection reversal boundary at high latitudes to changes in the interplanetary magnetic field

AbstractIn this paper we present a systematic study of the location of the convection reversal boundary for southward interplanetary magnetic field by using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F13 and F15 spacecraft measurements during local summer seasons from 2000 to 2007 for both hemispheres. All the convection reversal boundaries are identified pass bypass by locating the highest‐latitude location where the plasma flow shows a large‐scale two‐cell pattern and reverses direction from sunward to antisunward. The location of the convection reversal boundaries are placed into 10 different categories based on By and the magnitude of southward Bz. Observations suggest that (1) the location of the boundary is well organized by the magnitude of Bz, being at lower latitudes for stronger negative Bz and also organized by the polarity of By, moving toward the dawnside/duskside when By changes from negative to positive in the northern/southern hemisphere; (2) the average latitudinal movement of the boundary associated with By changes is comparable to the average movement of the boundary with Bz changes; (3) an initial reconfiguration of the boundary near local noon is redistributed around the dawnside or duskside dependent on the direction of By; and (4) the boundary has a general spiral shape, which varies depending on Bz and By.

Fast equatorial waves propagating at the top of the Earth's core

AbstractSince 2000, magnetic field variations originating in the core have been dominated by several pulses in the secular acceleration, leading to sharp geomagnetic “jerks” at the Earth's surface. Using models built from (i) Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data and (ii) Ørsted and Swarm satellites and ground observatory data, we show that a new pulse occurred in 2012.5, immediately following two pulses in 2006 and 2009. The three pulses can be decomposed into several equatorially symmetric modes propagating eastward and westward at 550 to 1100 km/yr, and one equatorially antisymmetric mode propagating eastward at 1650 km/yr. The characteristics of these modes are compatible to some extent with equatorial magnetic Rossby waves propagating within a 140 km thick layer at the top of the core with a density contrast of 50 ppm. This interpretation, if confirmed, would provide a new explanation for geomagnetic jerks and pulses based on stable stratification of the core.

Detecting surface oil slicks using VIIRS nighttime imagery under moon glint: a case study in the Gulf of Mexico

Using data collected over the Gulf of Mexico during night between May 2012 and September 2013 by the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), we demonstrate a new application from its day-and-night band (DNB). Under cloud free and moon glint conditions, the DNB revealed surface oil slicks from natural oil seeps. This is despite the fact that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of this wide band (505–890 nm) under moon glint is much lower (30:1–50:1) and its resolution is also coarser (750 m) than the VIIRS imaging bands (375 m) under daytime solar illumination. The DNB was designed to map light sources at night. Similar to its predecessor, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (OLS), the VIIRS DNB should be suitable to identifying bioluminescence at night. However, with its finer resolution and higher SNR than OLS, the VIIRS DNB is demonstrated here to be also able to complement other sensors in the detection and mapping of oil spills.

A large-scale view of Space Technology 5 magnetometer response to solar wind drivers.

In this data report we discuss reprocessing of the Space Technology 5 (ST5) magnetometer database for inclusion in NASA's Coordinated Data Analysis Web (CDAWeb) virtual observatory. The mission consisted of three spacecraft flying in elliptical orbits, from 27 March to 27 June 2006. Reprocessing includes (1) transforming the data into the Modified Apex Coordinate System for projection to a common reference altitude of 110 km, (2) correcting gain jumps, and (3) validating the results. We display the averaged magnetic perturbations as a keogram, which allows direct comparison of the full‐mission data with the solar wind values and geomagnetic indices. With the data referenced to a common altitude, we find the following: (1) Magnetic perturbations that track the passage of corotating interaction regions and high‐speed solar wind; (2) unexpectedly strong dayside perturbations during a solstice magnetospheric sawtooth oscillation interval characterized by a radial interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component that may have enhanced the accompanying modest southward IMF; and (3) intervals of reduced magnetic perturbations or “calms,” associated with periods of slow solar wind, interspersed among variable‐length episodic enhancements. These calms are most evident when the IMF is northward or projects with a northward component onto the geomagnetic dipole. The reprocessed ST5 data are in very good agreement with magnetic perturbations from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft, which we also map to 110 km. We briefly discuss the methods used to remap the ST5 data and the means of validating the results against DMSP. Our methods form the basis for future intermission comparisons of space‐based magnetometer data.

Correcting Incompatible DN Values and Geometric Errors in Nighttime Lights Time-Series Images

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime lights imagery has proven to be a powerful remote sensing tool to monitor urbanization and assess socioeconomic activities at large scales. However, the existence of incompatible digital number (DN) values and geometric errors severely limit application of nighttime light image data on multiyear quantitative research. In this paper, we extend and improve previous studies on intercalibrating nighttime lights image data to obtain more compatible and reliable nighttime lights time-series (NLT) image data for China and the U.S. through four steps, namely, intercalibration, geometric correction, steady-increase adjustment, and population data correction. We then use gross domestic product (GDP) data to test the processed NLT image data indirectly and find that sum light (summed DN value of pixels in a nighttime light image) maintains apparent increase trends with relatively large GDP growth rates but does not increase or decrease with relatively small GDP growth rates. As nighttime light is a sensitive indicator for economic activity, the temporally consistent trends between sum light and GDP growth rate imply that brightness of nighttime lights on the ground is correctly represented by the processed NLT image data. Finally, through analyzing the corrected NLT image data from 1992 to 2008, we find that China experienced apparent nighttime lights development in 1992–1997 and 2001–2008, respectively, and the U.S. showed nighttime lights decay in large areas after 2001.

Are dayside long-period pulsations related to the cusp?

Abstract. We compare simultaneous observations of long-period ultra-low-frequency (ULF) wave activity from a Svalbard/IMAGE fluxgate magnetometer latitudinal profile covering the expected cusp geomagnetic latitudes. Irregular Pulsations at Cusp Latitudes (IPCL) and narrowband Pc5 waves are found to be a ubiquitous element of ULF activity in the dayside high-latitude region. To identify the ionospheric projections of the cusp, we use the width of return signal of the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar covering the Svalbard archipelago, predictions of empirical cusp models, augmented whenever possible by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) identification of magnetospheric boundary domains. The meridional spatial structure of broadband dayside Pc5–6 pulsation spectral power has been found to have a localized latitudinal peak, not under the cusp proper as was previously thought, but several degrees southward from the equatorward cusp boundary. The earlier claims of the dayside monochromatic Pc5 wave association with the open–closed boundary also seems doubtful. Transient currents producing broadband Pc5–6 probably originate at the low-latitude boundary layer/central plasma sheet (LLBL/CPS) interface, though such identification with available DMSP data is not very precise. The occurrence of broadband Pc5–6 pulsations in the dayside boundary layers is a challenge to modelers because so far their mechanism has not been firmly identified.

A multisensor, blended, layered water vapor product for weather analysis and forecasting

This paper describes the creation of a near real-time, near-global, four-layer (surface–850, 850–700, 700– 500, and 500–300 hPa) blended layered water vapor (LWV) product using retrieved soundings from five polar-orbiting satellites [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-18 and NOAA-19 satellites; Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F-18 satellite; Meteorological Operational satellite program’s Metop-A satellite; and National Atmospheric and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite]. Both layer precipitable water (LPW) and layer relative humidity (LRH) are included in the blended LWV product. The NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Version 6 retrieval product and NOAA Microwave Integrated Retrieval System soundings are used to create the product, and the use of retrieved water vapor profiles from multiple satellite inputs at different local times allows visualization of the flow of water vapor in layers. The product has advantages and complements geostationary water vapor imagery, derived products from geostationary satellites, and radiosondes in tracking moisture over data sparse regions in cloudy conditions. LPW profiles show absolute values at each layer of the column, while LRH profiles give a sense of whether the column is moistening or drying with height. Examples of the product are given for a severe weather case, the September 2013 Colorado Front Range floods, and a landfalling tropical depression. The usefulness of the product is discussed from the perspective of how tools commonly used by forecasters to analyze water vapor are augmented by the blended layered water vapor fields.

Global Trends in Exposure to Light Pollution in Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems

The rapid growth in electric light usage across the globe has led to increasing presence of artificial light in natural and semi-natural ecosystems at night. This occurs both due to direct illumination and skyglow - scattered light in the atmosphere. There is increasing concern about the effects of artificial light on biological processes, biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. We combine intercalibrated Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) images of stable night-time lights for the period 1992 to 2012 with a remotely sensed landcover product (GLC2000) to assess recent changes in exposure to artificial light at night in 43 global ecosystem types. We find that Mediterranean-climate ecosystems have experienced the greatest increases in exposure, followed by temperate ecosystems. Boreal, Arctic and montane systems experienced the lowest increases. In tropical and subtropical regions, the greatest increases are in mangroves and subtropical needleleaf and mixed forests, and in arid regions increases are mainly in forest and agricultural areas. The global ecosystems experiencing the greatest increase in exposure to artificial light are already localized and fragmented, and often of particular conservation importance due to high levels of diversity, endemism and rarity. Night time remote sensing can play a key role in identifying the extent to which natural ecosystems are exposed to light pollution.

A new method for extracting built-up urban areas using DMSP-OLS nighttime stable lights: a case study in the Pearl River Delta, southern China

The nighttime stable light (NSL) images on board the Operational Line-scan System (OLS) of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) are useful for extracting large-scale built-up urban areas. However, most NSL-based studies are presently empirical threshold-based approaches. They always overestimate the areas of built-up land in urban regions because of the ‘blooming’ effect of NSL; and overlook small patches in developing towns where the NSL is much lower. In this study, a neighborhood statistics analysis (NSA) method is developed on the basis of the relative spatial variations between neighboring built-up and non-built-up pixels in DMSP-OLS images. It is applied to extract the built-up areas of eight cities in the Pearl River Delta in 1996, 2000, 2005, and 2009. The validations indicate that the total areas of the NSA-mapped results are highly correlated with those from Landsat TM/ETM+ data (R2 = 0.94; p < 0.001). The comparison results, which are evaluated by landscape indices (the landscape shape index (LSI), the contiguity index (CONTIG), and the perimeter area ratio (PARA)), also show good correlations (R2 > 0.46; p < 0.001). In addition, the total NSL of the built-up urban areas is significantly correlated with the statistical population data (R2 = 0.62; p < 0.001), which indirectly confirms the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Modeling subauroral polarization streams during the 17 March 2013 storm

AbstractThe subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) are one of the most important features in representing magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling processes. In this study, we use a state‐of‐the‐art modeling framework that couples an inner magnetospheric ring current model RAM‐SCB with a global MHD model Block‐Adaptive Tree Solar‐wind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS‐R‐US) and an ionospheric potential solver to study the SAPS that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm event as well as to assess the modeling capability. Both ionospheric and magnetospheric signatures associated with SAPS are analyzed to understand the spatial and temporal evolution of the electrodynamics in the midlatitude regions. Results show that the model captures the SAPS at subauroral latitudes, where Region 2 field‐aligned currents (FACs) flow down to the ionosphere and the conductance is lower than in the higher‐latitude auroral zone. Comparisons to observations such as FACs observed by Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE), cross‐track ion drift from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), and in situ electric field observations from the Van Allen Probes indicate that the model generally reproduces the global dynamics of the Region 2 FACs, the position of SAPS along the DMSP, and the location of the SAPS electric field around L of 3.0 in the inner magnetosphere near the equator. The model also demonstrates double westward flow channels in the dusk sector (the higher‐latitude auroral convection and the subauroral SAPS) and captures the mechanism of the SAPS. However, the comparison with ion drifts along DMSP trajectories shows an underestimate of the magnitude of the SAPS and the sensitivity to the specific location and time. The comparison of the SAPS electric field with that measured from the Van Allen Probes shows that the simulated SAPS electric field penetrates deeper than in reality, implying that the shielding from the Region 2 FACs in the model is not well represented. Possible solutions in future studies to improve the modeling capability include implementing a self‐consistent ionospheric conductivity module from inner magnetosphere particle precipitation, coupling with the thermosphere‐ionosphere chemical processes, and connecting the ionosphere with the inner magnetosphere by the stronger Region 2 FACs calculated in the inner magnetosphere model.

Intermediate‐scale plasma irregularities in the polar ionosphere inferred from GPS radio occultation

AbstractWe report intermediate‐scale plasma irregularities in the polar ionosphere inferred from high‐resolution radio occultation (RO) measurements using GPS (Global Positioning System) to CASSIOPE (CAScade Smallsat and IOnospheric Polar Explorer) satellite radio links. The high inclination of CASSIOPE and the high rate of signal reception by the GPS Attitude, Positioning, and Profiling RO receiver on CASSIOPE enable a high‐resolution investigation of the dynamics of the polar ionosphere with unprecedented detail. Intermediate‐scale, scintillation‐producing irregularities, which correspond to 1 to 40 km scales, were inferred by applying multiscale spectral analysis on the RO phase measurements. Using our multiscale spectral analysis approach and satellite data (Polar Operational Environmental Satellites and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program), we discovered that the irregularity scales and phase scintillations have distinct features in the auroral oval and polar cap. We found that large length scales and more intense phase scintillations are prevalent in the auroral oval compared to the polar cap implying that the irregularity scales and phase scintillation characteristics are a function of the solar wind and magnetospheric forcings.

Dynamics of Urbanization Levels in China from 1992 to 2012: Perspective from DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

The authenticity and reliability of urbanization levels measured by different indicators in China have not reached a consensus, which may impede our understanding of the process of urbanization and its impacts on the environment. The objective of this study was to describe a reliable method of estimating urbanization level based on the Operational Line-scan System (OLS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime light data and to analyze the dynamics of urbanization levels in China from 1992 to 2012. We calculated the comprehensive urbanization level at the national, provincial, and county scales using a compounded night light index (CNLI) and compared the change rate of CNLI with those of the other two conventional urbanization level indicators, proportion of the nonagricultural population and proportion of built-up area. Our results showed that CNLI derived from the DMSP/OLS data set provided a relatively reliable and accurate measure of the comprehensive urbanization level in China. During the last two decades, China has experienced continued and rapid urbanization with large regional variations. The CNLI increased 3.12 times, from 1.72 × 10−3 to 7.09 × 10−3. The annual increases of CNLI in eastern provinces were much faster than those in western provinces. In addition, we found that the rates of change in these three indicators were consistent for most provinces with the exception of the four municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing) and a few eastern coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong). Because the imbalance among population growth, urban expansion and socioeconomic development may affect cities’ sustainable development, we should pay more attention to these regions with large disparities between different indicators.

The nightside magnetic field line open–closed boundary and polar rain electron energy-latitude dispersion

Abstract. The polar rain electrons near the open–closed field line boundary on the nightside often exhibit energy-latitude dispersion, in which the energy decreases with decreasing latitude. The solar wind electrons from the last open-field line would E × B drift equatorward as they move toward the ionosphere, resulting in the observed dispersion. This process is modeled successfully by an open-field line particle precipitation model. The existing method for determining the magnetotail X line distance from the electron dispersion underestimates the electron path length from the X line to the ionosphere by at least 33%. The best estimate of the path length comes from using the two highest energy electrons in the dispersion region. The magnetic field line open–closed boundary is located poleward of the highest energy electrons in the dispersion region, which in turn is located poleward of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) b6, b5e, and b5i boundaries. In the four events examined, b6 is located at least 0.7–1.5° equatorward of the magnetic field line open–closed boundary. The energy-latitude dispersion seen in the electron overhang may result from the plasma sheet electron curvature and gradient drifts into the newly closed field line.

Assessing predictive ability of three auroral precipitation models using DMSP energy flux

AbstractOur study statistically compares the total energy flux outputs of Newell et al.'s () oval variation, assessment, tracking, intensity, and online nowcasting (OVATION) Prime model, Hardy et al.'s () Kp‐based model, and a coupled Space Weather Modeling Framework ring current model to energy flux data obtained from 2198 Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite passes in the Northern Hemisphere. Our DMSP data set includes 28 days grouped into continuous 3 and 4 day periods between 2000 and 2008 and encompasses magnetic local times (MLTs) between 04:00 and 21:00. We obtain the most equatorward magnetic latitude coordinate, where a DMSP satellite energy flux measurement exceeds 0.4 erg/cm2/s, and use this point as a proxy for the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval in a particular MLT sector. We then calculate a prediction efficiency (PE) score by comparing the DMSP boundary coordinates to each model, using the same energy flux threshold to obtain a model's boundary location. We find that the PE for the OVATION Prime model is 0.55, and the PE for the Hardy Kp model is 0.51. When we accomplish the same analysis using a higher energy flux threshold equal to 0.6 erg/cm2/s, the OVATION Prime model's PE increases to 0.58, while the Hardy Kp model's score drops to 0.41. Our results indicate that more complex modeling techniques, like those used in OVATION Prime, can more accurately model the auroral oval's equatorward boundary. However, Hardy's discretized Kp model, despite its relative simplicity, is still a competitive and viable modeling option.