Deep Recession Research Articles

ВИКЛИКИ З БОКУ ПОПИТУ І ПРОПОЗИЦІЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ ПІД ЧАС ВОЄННИХ ДІЙ ТА ОЦІНКА ЇХ ВПЛИВУ НА МАКРОДИНАМІКУ

Наслідками повномасштабної війни в Україні вже стали: величезні руйнування практично всіх видів інфраструктури, загибель тисяч військових і цивільних громадян України, міграція мільйонів біженців за кордон. Руйнування інфраструктури знищило активи підприємств, ускладнило або розірвало логістичні ланцюги поставок і сировини, і готової продукції. Украй важке становище склалося в аграрному секторі, де забруднюється і руйнується головне багатство країни – родючі сільськогосподарські угіддя. Подальший розвиток економічної ситуації в українській економіці складно прогнозувати, головним чином, через те, що війна триває і господарська система щодня зазнає нових втрат. Залишаються невизначеними наслідки воєнних дій на тих територіях, які мають бути звільнені, так само як і терміни закінчення воєнних дій. Проте вже нині очевидно, що основними викликами для попиту і пропозиції, з якими стикнеться економіка України в короткостроковій перспективі, стануть зруйнована інфраструктура, пошкоджені або заміновані сільськогосподарські угіддя, істотне падіння доходів населення і масштабність його міграції за межі країни. Усе це негативно впливатиме на споживчий попит внутрішнього ринку в цілому і сферу послуг зокрема, а пропозиція українських виробників окремих споживчих товарів залишатиметься недостатньою для задоволення навіть звуженого попиту внутрішнього ринку. За умов припинення воєнних дій на території України до кінця поточного року динаміка ВВП України вийде з глибокої минулорічної рецесії, але буде від’ємною за підсумками 2023 р.

Treatment of deep single RT2 and RT3 antero-mandibular gingival recessions with a combination of surgical techniques: A case series study.

To evaluate root coverage (RC) in deep single antero-mandibular RT2 and RT3 gingival recessions (GR) and to investigate the influence of several factors in RC. Fifteen single antero-mandibular GR with a minimum depth of 3 mm were consecutively treated with a new one-stage technique (laterally positioned flap with a tunnel access and a connective tissue graft). At baseline and at 12-month follow-up, the percentage of mean root coverage (%MRC), the recession reduction (RecRed), complete root coverage (CRC) and the gain of keratinized tissue width (KTW) were assessed. Descriptive, intergroup comparative and correlation analyses were performed. At 12 months, a %MRC of 77.29 ± 21.48% with a mean RecRed of 4.10 ± 1.51 mm was achieved. The %MRC was 84.71 ± 21.08% in RT2, and 62.43 ± 14.17% in RT3. The mean gain of KTW was 2.10 ± 0.89 mm, with a mean gain of 2.0 ± 1.03 mm for RT2 and 2.3 ± 0.57 mm for RT3. CRC was observed in six cases, all of them being RT2. A positive association was found between the %MRC and the initial position of the tooth and of both papillae. This technique might be a valuable approach for the treatment of deep single antero-mandibular RT2 and RT3 recessions, even in malpositioned teeth. A combination of different surgical techniques could provide greater vascularization to the CTG especially in malpositioned teeth in sextant V with a large avascular area to be covered.

Abstract P1182: The Genetic Dissection Of Rpl3l As A Causal Gene For Neonatal Dilated Cardiomyopathy And Left Ventricular Noncompaction

Background: Cardiomyopathies are responsible for nearly 10% of cardiac deaths in neonates. Recently, biallelic variants in ribosomal protein L3-like ( RPL3L , NM_005061.2) have been reported in neonates with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and heart failure (HF). This study is aimed to study RPL3L induced genetic pathways and mechanisms involved in the development of DCM. Methods: Whole exome and RNA sequencing, histology, immunohistochemistry, and Western blotting were performed in a human explanted heart. Genetic correlation, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) mapping and functional analysis were performed using cardiac gene expression data from the patient as well as human and murine genetic reference populations (GRPs). Results: Two-month-old patient with DCM and HF carrying compound heterozygous RPL3L variants, p.A51T and p.V231F, has been managed on an INTERMACS profile 2 with continuous-flow ventricular assist device and successfully bridged to heart transplantation at the age of 4 months. Morphology of the explanted heart displayed apical deep intertrabecular recesses consistent with left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC). Histology revealed interstitial fibrosis and myocardial hypertrophy. No signs of myocarditis and glycogen or mucopolysaccharides deposits were detected. Immunohistochemistry revealed abnormal clusters of RPL3L protein in the cytosol of cardiomyocytes and disruption of F-actin, Z-disk proteins, MYL4 and dystrophin was evident. In a mouse heart, the Rpl3l level was of 33.45 RPKM, while levels of RPL3L appeared to be 32 RPKM in a human heart compared to its mean expression in other adult tissues of 2.54 (mouse) and 2.36 (human). Systems genetics analysis identified high expression values ranged from 11.31 to 12.16 across murine GRPs of BXD mice with the ~1.8-fold difference. Pathways such as “thermogenesis”, “diabetic cardiomyopathy” and “DCM” significantly associated with RPL3L. e QTL mapping suggested Myl4 (Chr 11) and Sdha (Chr 13) as the upstream regulators of Rpl3l . Conclusions: Compound RPL3L heterozygosity is causal for neonatal DCM and LVNC. The RPL3L is highly expressed in the heart tissue of humans and mice. Genes, Myl4 and Sdha, are strong candidates that regulate expression of Rpl3l in murine heart.

Change in sense of coherence mediates the association between economic recession and mortality among middle-aged men: A population-based cohort study from Eastern Finland

A financial recession has been associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality, but little is known about how psychosocial fluctuations in stress tolerance or orientation to life affect this association. Sense of Coherence (SOC) is a core construct in the Salutogenic Model of Health and is determined by generalized resistance resources and measures one's orientation to life by comprehensibility, manageability, and meaningfulness. We followed the mortality of a cohort of middle-aged Finnish men (n = 854) from the 1980s to the end of 2019. The cohort baseline was stratified into four age groups at baseline: 42, 48, 54, and 60. SOC was measured twice, at the baseline and at the 11-year follow-up visit. Between these SOC measurements, Finland confronted a deep financial recession, the effects of which were examined at the follow-up visit by questionnaires related to economic hardship (sum of nine items) and experience of the recession (one item). Using age group, marital status, employment status, and education as covariates, the change in SOC mediated both the economic hardship and the experience of recession relations to mortality: the indirect effects -19.57 (95% CI -43.23 to -0.92), and -26.82 (95% CI -59.52 to -0.61), respectively. Every one-point increase in economic hardship predicted about 2 and a half weeks shorter life expectancy, and those who experienced very strong disadvantages of economic recession had about 3 and a half months lower life expectancy by the end of 2019 than those who fully avoided the disadvantages. Furthermore, the younger age groups, 42 and 48, experienced the recession more severely than the older groups, 54 and 60. We conclude that following how orientation to life changes among middle-aged might be an informative approach after a recession.

Left Ventricular Noncompaction Masquerading as Hypertrophic Nonobstructive Cardiomyopathy

A 61-year-old male with no significant medical history presented with dyspnea on exertion for the past 3 months. Clinical examination findings and electrocardiogram showed sinus rhythm and left ventricular hypertrophy. The chest X-ray and basic laboratory tests were within the normal limits. A transthoracic echocardiogram was performed which showed left ventricular wall thickening involving the anterior wall, lateral wall, septum, and inferior wall in the basal, mid, and apical segments. The left ventricular apex showed disproportionately increased thickness. There was no left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) turbulence or obstruction. Left ventricular angiogram showed prominent trabeculations with deep intertrabecular recesses. LVOT obstruction was ruled out. The patient then underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, which showed features suggestive of left ventricular noncompaction.

INTERMEDIATION AND SUSTAINABLE FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY AMIDST THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

This review aims to analyze the function of internalization and stabilization of the monetary-finance sector for the sustainability of financial system stability during the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The Covid-19 pandemic caused a deep recession in the national economy and a significant drop in the capital market index. Policy uncertainty over handling the pandemic and the continued emergence of various variants of Covid-19 exacerbated economic conditions. Bank Indonesia (BI) made several monetary policies to complement the policies taken by the government to maintain sustainability during the Covid-19 pandemic. Strengthening financial stability and supporting the intermediation recovery policy strengthens the monetary sector's sustainability and stabilization so that banks do not experience excessive pressure during Covid-19 and remain profitable. These perspectives were tested in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Indonesian banking and financial stability industry has shown sustainability in the last two years. On the other hand, the competition stability in the Covid-19 pandemic approach assumes that the borrower side of the relationship must be considered. Banks can charge exorbitant interest rates in collusive markets, increasing the cost of borrowing for businesses and triggering the moral hazard problem. Specifically for ASEAN and Indonesia, as a result of the recent global financial crisis in 2020, BI implemented expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in response to the crisis to stabilize its economies.

CURRENT CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS OF LOAN PORTFOLIO QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN WARTIME: THE CASE OF UKRAINE

The purpose of the study is to develop effective ways to solve the problems of managing the quality of the loan portfolio of the Ukrainian banking sector in the context of the financial crisis caused by the russian-Ukrainian war. In the course of the study, such scientific methods as fundamental provisions of the credit portfolio theory, multifactor regression analysis, extrapolation, trend analysis, mathematical programming, etc. have been used. A methodical approach to the study of contemporary problems and prospects of loan portfolio quality management under martial law, consisting in modelling the profitability of the Ukrainian banking sector, taking into account the quality of the loan portfolio, has been proposed. This approach is implemented by constructing a two-factor power regression equation; forecasting with the establishment of confidence intervals and the development of 3 forecast scenarios (realistic, pessimistic and optimistic); solving the target function to maximize the profit of the banking sector, taking into account the restrictions formed on the basis of forecasting results. A power model of dependence of Ukrainian banking sector profitability on the volume of loan portfolio and non-performing loans has been built and its statistical significance has been established on the basis of official statistics for 2012–2022. It has been determined that an increase in the volume of the bank loan portfolio by 1% leads to an increase in bank income by 3.1%, while an increase in the volume of non-performing loans by 1% leads to a 0.28% reduction in revenues of the banking sector of Ukraine. The loan portfolio and NPL series have been extrapolated to 2023–2025, which is consistent with the medium-term, as long-term projections would be unreliable under martial law and deep recession. According to the results of medium-term forecasting and optimization, it has been proved that the maximum growth of bank revenues by 60.4%, compared to 2022, is possible with an increase in the loan portfolio by 18.9%, a reduction of non-performing loans by 26% and a reduction of their share in the loan portfolio by 13.9%. It has been justified that the key condition for maximising bank revenues is the soonest termination of the russian-Ukrainian war and further expansion of effective government concessional lending programs. In particular, the effectiveness of the state program “Affordable Loans 5–7–9%”, which provided 19% of the bank loan portfolio in Ukraine and became a key mechanism of anti-crisis business support both during the COVID-19 pandemic and during the large-scale invasion from 2022 during the russian-Ukrainian war, has been substantiated.

Noncompaction Cardiomyopathy and Embolic Events

Left ventricular noncompaction cardiomyopathy (LVNC) is characterized by prominent ventricular trabeculations and deep intertrabecular recesses. Patients with LVNC have an increased risk of embolic events. The presence of symptoms at the time of diagnosis can be a risk marker for stroke/embolic events. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), as measured by transthoracic echocardiography and left atrial diameter, has been found to be a significant predictor of systemic embolism in LVNC patients. Furthermore, CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus and stroke or transient ischemic attack) and CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes, stroke, vascular disease, age 65–74 years and sex category [female]) scores were significantly higher in patients with stroke or embolism. Although the difference was not statistically significant, pediatric patients with LVNC combined with other congenital heart defects had more thromboembolic events compared to patients with isolated LVNC. On the other hand, stroke/transient ischemic attacks did not differ significantly between patients with isolated apical LVNC and mid-basal noncompaction. Furthermore, no differences in the prevalence of stroke between the quantiles of the maximal ratio of noncompacted to compacted myocardium have been revealed. Additionally, current data show no association between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels and stroke/embolic events. Current evidence suggests anticoagulation treatment in LVNC patients with prior embolic events, atrial fibrillation, presence of left ventricular (LV) thrombus, and/or LV dysfunction. In patients with LVNC without a clear indication for anticoagulation, anticoagulant therapy may be considered in patients with CHADS2 score ≥2. More data are needed to identify patients at higher risk of embolic events who will be benefited from anticoagulation treatment.

The Rare Condition of Left Ventricular Non-Compaction and Reverse Remodeling.

Left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC) is a rare disease defined by morphological criteria, consisting of a two-layered ventricular wall, a thin compacted epicardial layer, and a thick hyper-trabeculated myocardium layer with deep recesses. Controversies still exist regarding whether it is a distinct cardiomyopathy (CM) or a morphological trait of different conditions. This review analyzes data from the literature regarding diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis in LVNC and the current knowledge regarding reverse remodeling in this form of CM. Furthermore, for clear exemplification, we report a case of a 41-year-old male who presented symptoms of heart failure (HF). LVNC CM was suspected at the time of transthoracic echocardiography and was subsequently confirmed upon cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. A favorable remodeling and clinical outcome were registered after including an angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitor in the HF treatment. LVNC remains a heterogenous CM, and although a favorable outcome is not commonly encountered, some patients respond well to therapy.

Avoiding a deep recession: how governments can plan for financial stability

Avoiding a deep recession: how governments can plan for financial stability

Business dynamism, sectoral reallocation and productivity in a pandemic

Asymmetric effects across sectors are the distinctive features of the Covid-19 shock. An Epidemiological-Industry Dynamic model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous firms dynamics mimics the deep recession suffered by sectors characterized by high exposure, the reallocation of entry and exit opportunities across sectors, and the dynamics of aggregate productivity during the first wave of the pandemic. The cleansing effect induced by the Covid-19 crisis is sector-specific. Monetary policy and sticky wages are central ingredients to capture reallocation effects. Social distancing, by smoothing out cleansing in the social sector, slows down the reallocation process and prolongs the recession, but saves lives.

C16 NONCOMPACTION OF VENTRICULAR MYOCARDIUM AND X–LINKED RECESSIVE ICHTYOSIS

Abstract Noncompact left ventricle is a rare congenital cardiomyopathy characterized by numerous ventricular trabeculae separated by deep intertrabecular recesses. It can occur in isolation or in association with neuromuscular disorders and congenital heart defects. The cause is not known but it is thought to be due to the arrest of the normal maturation process of the myocardium. Among the responsible mutations are taffazzine, ZASP and distrobrevin. It can manifest as left ventricular dilatation and dysfunction, arrhythmias, thromboembolic events, and sepsis. The echocardiogram is the investigation of first choice. Magnetic resonance allows you to more precisely distinguish compact and non–compact layers, thrombi and myocardial fibrosis. Clinical case A 19–year–old patient came for syncope. She presented with midfacial hypoplasia, cupped ears, synophrium, high palate, ichthyosis, small hands, and scarring from Achilles tendon lengthening. She denied a family history of cardiovascular disease and sudden cardiac death. Karyotype analysis showed karyotype 46Y, –X, + der t (X; Y) (p22.2; q11.1), with a chromosome derived from the X;Y translocation (a feature already known in the mother and in several maternal relatives ). Coronary angiography, electroencephalogram and brain MRI were within limits. Echocardiogram and MRI showed non–compact myocardium at the left ventricular apex and mild ventricular dysfunction with areas of anterior and posterior dyssynergia (Fig. 1). The ECG showed high QRS voltages. The Holter ECG showed numerous supraventricular extrasystoles even in pairs and runs, rare PVCs, and nocturnal pauses of up to 3 seconds. The patient underwent genetic screening by NGS for sarcomeric mutations which resulted negative. Subsequent genetic analysis showed deletion in two chromosomal regions that could be interpreted as pathogenic (chromosomal region Xp22.33 containing the SHOX gene and involving the deleted locus in Leri–Weill dyschondrosteosis and in the Xp22.33p22.31 region containing the STS gene involving the locus deleted in X–linked recessive ichthyosis) and a duplication in the chromosomal region Yq11.221q11.23 of uncertain significance. Conclusions After review of the scientific literature, the association of the illustrated complex deletion and translocation with non–compact myocardium represents a new finding, worthy of being explored in genetically affected patients.

General adult education of displaced workers in a recession: the effects on university enrollment and graduation

ABSTRACT This article studies a sample of displaced workers during the deep 1990s recession in Sweden and estimates the effect of secondary-level adult education on tertiary-level educational attainment. Plant closures and mass layoffs are used to identify job separations unrelated to individual productivity. Results indicate a large positive effect of general adult education on displaced workers’ further investment in human capital by continuing on to university education. These findings offer some explanation of findings in previous research, i.e. slow recovery of post-treatment earnings among workers enrolled in adult education, with positive treatment effects on earnings emerging in the long run.

Poor counts as viable accounts: numbers, forecasting, and routinization in Greece

ABSTRACT After a revision to a projected deficit figure in 2009 touched off deep recession and austerity, much scrutiny and skepticism focused on the role of economic forecasts, statistics, and experts in the nearly decade-long ‘Greek crisis.’ This article takes an ethnographic approach to macroeconomic forecasting, examining it both as a process through which numbers come to exert profound effects and a charged object of popular concern for the ways in which this happens. It asks how to reconcile the lack of popular faith in forecasts with their ability to persist as objects of attention. Through tracking the making and circulation of forecasts, I answer this question by demonstrating what numbers do. Specifically, I argue that the fundamental work of forecasting consists in how it renders numbers routine means of thinking about the economy and its future. I show how numbers carry out this work through their ability to at once describe and represent, such that contention over descriptions of the economy nevertheless routinizes representations of it. This argument points to a type of performativity that occurs through routinization and it presents an understanding of the multivalence of numbers that can inform critical approaches to quantification, objectification, and expertise.

Nobel Lecture: Banking, Credit, and Economic Fluctuations

Credit markets, including the market for bank loans, are characterized by imperfect and asymmetric information. These informational frictions can interact with other economic forces to produce periods of credit-market stress, in which intermediation is unusually costly and households and businesses have difficulty obtaining credit. A high level of credit-market stress, as in a severe financial crisis, may in turn produce a deep and prolonged recession. I present evidence that financial distress and disrupted credit markets were important sources of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Changes in the state of credit markets also play a role in “ garden-variety” business cycles and in the transmission of monetary policy to the economy. (JEL D82, E32, E44, E52, G21, N22)

Safe Utilization of Phosphogypsum and Aksai Off-balance Sheet Ores

The article discusses the phosphogypsum negative influence on the environment. Utilization and application of phosphogypsum, as a careful attitude to resources by reducing the amount of waste and secondary materials, reducing the storage area of industrial waste in production regions, the introduction of new industrial and innovative technologies, improving the quality of raw materials, resources through their rational and integrated use, allows you to create a reliable mechanism for the functioning of various sectors of the construction economy and solve environmental problems of industrial regions of our country. As a result of studies of various types of technogenic waste (phosphogypsum, offbalance ores), it was found that they can be used as components for filling deep recesses and depressions of highways. One of the options for the effective use of phosphogypsum in the road construction industry is proposed, the justification for the possibility of using off-balance phosphorous ores instead of crushed stone for construction was given.

Bailout dynamics in a monetary union

The Eurozone bailouts consisted of credit lines with favorable lending conditions, equivalent to countries receiving implicit fiscal transfers. They are often interpreted as meant to prevent a default in the Eurozone or resolve the crisis. Contrary to this narrative, Greece defaulted on its debt and went through a deep and prolonged recession, despite receiving fiscal assistance. This paper analyzes country bailouts in a monetary union within a framework where sovereign default and exit from the union are two separate decisions. The studied bailouts prevent an exit and, thus, do not exclude subsequent defaults. The model replicates the experience of Greece and captures the coexistence of bailouts, defaults, and recession. It also sheds new light on the moral hazard discussion of bailouts by showing no significant effects from exit-driven bailouts.

Inflation, the global financial crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic

In the years 2021–2022, world inflation has drastically increased. The analyses of the main characteristics of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as of the rise in total debt of the non-financial sector suggest that the growth in inflation was triggered by excessive debt growth of the government sector in 2020–2021. In that period, the main goal of the debt growth of the government sector was to finance the aid schemes limiting the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These aid programmes were indispensable to avoid deep and long-term global economic recession, however, their value was too high to keep inflation in the world under control. The fiscal intervention of particular countries should be co-ordinated internationally, as the cumulative result of the operations undertaken by particular states might have detrimental effects globally.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka fell into an unprecedented crisis as a result of a series of shocks and policy missteps. Debt rose to unsustainable levels resulting from large fiscal imbalances, and access to international capital markets was lost soon after large tax cuts and the onset of the COVID-19. Reserves were depleted, leading to a sharp exchange rate depreciation, and debt service was suspended in the spring of 2022. Sizable monetary financing to meet fiscal obligations contributed to a surge in inflation. Sri Lanka’s economy is in deep recession and financial stability is at risk given the tight financialsovereign nexus. People are suffering from food and energy shortages, exacerbating deep-rooted public dissatisfaction and creating a vulnerable political and social environment.

Experimental and theoretical study on the dynamic stiffness of circular oil hydrostatic shallow recess thrust bearings

The dynamic stiffness of traditional (deep recess) hydrostatic bearings decreases due to the fluid compressibility between the bearing and a compensation device, e.g., a capillary. Shallow recess bearings, on the other hand, reduce the influence of fluid compressibility on dynamic stiffness through a reduced compressible volume and inherent stiffness. This article outlines a theoretical and experimental study of the dynamic stiffness of oil hydrostatic shallow recess thrust bearings without external compensation devices and in combination with external capillaries. The measurements performed in the study validate the theoretical models and the potential to increase dynamic stiffness. In addition, analytical solutions are proposed for the stiffness and damping of a circular shallow recess thrust bearing.