Deep Decarbonization Research Articles

During the energy crisis renewable energy grows, fossils and nuclear energy decrease

Abstract In the first half of 2022 renewable energy electricity grew phenomenally across the world enabling decreases in electricity generation from fossil fuels and nuclear power. However, even this extraordinary growth has been insufficient to trigger a deep decarbonization of the power sector – a prerequisite for carbon neutrality. This means further accelerating renewable energy expansion is necessary. To achieve this new acceleration, taking even more advantage of renewable energy’s strengths (economics and energy security) – magnified by the ongoing global energy crisis – and overcoming obstacles slowing down progress (integration challenges and public support) is critical.

Uncovering the socioeconomic impacts of China's power system decarbonization

Deep decarbonization in the power sector is one of the key pillars of the carbon-neutral energy system, while its socioeconomic benefits remain unexplored. We integrate a multi-regional input-output model with a multiplier acceleration model to simulate the impacts of China's power decarbonization ambitions on the economy, employment, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two scenarios are set to simulate the socio-economic impacts of China's decarbonization in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Increasing penetration of clean power substantially decreases GHG emissions. However, without the basis of adequate socioeconomic policy, this transition may not benefit the sustainable development of the economy and employment. The GHG emissions in 2030 decreases by 15.22% compared with 2015 in China's power decarbonization investment scenario. Meanwhile, decarbonization creates inclusive growth in employment (1.02%) and the economy (1.21%). However, the renewable power sector creates 0.43 million jobs, whereas direct and indirect job losses total 2.04 million (fossil fuel power sector) and 19.18 million (construction, machinery manufacturing, chemicals, and coal mining sectors) in 2050 China's NZEE (net-zero emissions in the electricity sector) scenario. Middle-skilled workers account for 74.46% of total job losses, with a higher impact on males (67.37%) than on females (32.63%). China's overall economic loss from the transition is approximately 209.36 billion euros, though renewable power contributes 110.69 billion euros to economic growth. The direct GHG emissions reduction from the retirement of fossil fuel electricity eliminates the majority of total GHG emissions (89.65%). The results from this study have enormous implications for other countries that strive for their own decarbonization goals. The economic and employment consequence of the decarbonization of the electricity sector indicate that the government and policy makers should focus on establishing long-term economic stimulus policies and offering pre-vocational worker education to ensure sustainable socioeconomic development.

Decarbonizing Singapore via local production of H2 from natural gas

Interest in low emissions hydrogen as an energy vector to assist in deep decarbonization goals has gained momentum recently. In this paper, we explore local hydrogen production from natural gas with CO2 capture and sequestration (known as “blue” H2) to support Singapore's intended inclusion of low-carbon intensity H2 fuel as a way to achieve significant CO2 emission reduction through 2050. A superstructure-based model is used to minimize the total cost or emissions of the entire supply chain, from H2 production to consumption in the power, industry, domestic, marine, and road transport sectors. H2 demand for each sector is projected for three H2 penetration scenarios (low, medium, and high). The results are analyzed for the levelized cost of H2, reduction in carbon emissions, and cost of carbon avoidance. Costs associated with direct and indirect CO2 emissions, as well as H2 and CO2 infrastructure costs, are included in total costs. A comparison of blue H2 and direct natural gas utilization with post-combustion CO2 capture and sequestration is also presented. We find that decarbonizing Singapore via local production of blue H2 will involve a relatively high carbon avoidance cost.

Planning for winter peaking power systems in the United States

Most regions in the United States experience peak electricity demand during the summer months. Several regions, however, are dual peaking with distinct summer and winter peaks of roughly equal magnitude. Deep decarbonization of our energy system could lead to greater instances of dual or winter peaking power systems across the country. This seasonal shift has important implications for grid operations. Furthermore, the compounding impacts of decarbonization strategies and climate change could introduce new challenges in ensuring sufficient generator availability during peak demand. This paper provides policy recommendations to plan for a shift to dual or winter peaking power systems. We first analyze the seasonal peak demand trends between 2016 and 2021 at the regional and subregional levels. We provide key examples of how regulators and system operators plan for winter resource adequacy, focusing on the measures undertaken by different stakeholders, post-Winter Storm Uri. We then detail challenges posed by the multilevel regulation framework in planning for winter peaking power systems for both extreme cold events and a gradual shift due to electrification. Finally, we provide our policy recommendations for utilities and regulators on how they can robustly meet the challenges of winter peaking systems.

Equitable, affordable, and deep decarbonization pathways for low-latitude developing cities by rooftop photovoltaics integrated with electric vehicles

Identifying effective development and rapid decarbonization pathways for developing countries are essential to realize sustainable and equitable future global societies. Increasingly cheaper solar photovoltaics (PV) on rooftop is one of the keys to build such urban power systems, integrated with battery and/or electric vehicles (EVs). Here, we explore potentials of rooftop PV combined with EVs for urban decarbonization of Jakarta, Indonesia using techno-economic analysis, in comparison to Kyoto City, Japan. We found that rooftop PV system is already cost-competitive in Jakarta in 2019 but with cost-saving of only 3–4 %. However, “PV only” system becomes increasingly cost-effective (cost-saving of 8–15 %) by 2030. Further, by combining with EV as battery, rooftop PV system can supply affordable CO2 free electricity to 75–76 % of Jakarta’s electricity demands with 33–34 % potential cost saving and 76–77 % of CO2 emission reduction from electricity generation and driving, which also greatly improve air quality in the city. Notably, Jakarta has no space heating demand through a year but persistent cooling demand positively correlating with PV generation, which increases decarbonization potentials of “PV + EV” system by 9 % than that of Kyoto. Also, rooftop PV generation in Jakarta is less affected by rooftop slope angle and orientation than those of Kyoto owing to year-round higher “sun altitude angle” in Jakarta. As the Indonesia government aims to reach the level of developed country by 2045, rooftop “PV + EV” system can be a no-regret strategy for the rapid growth and decarbonization for Indonesia, and so for other low-latitude developing cities.

Estimating the carbon dioxide emission levels of G7 countries: A count data approach

The G7 countries account for about 40% of the global gross domestic product and emit 25% of energy-related emissions due to their energy use, releasing so much carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. This study uses competing count data models to model carbon emissions between 2002 and 2021. All the hypotheses are significant and with varied effects on the energy use of the G7 economies, backing the increasing levels of emissions. The findings show that emissions from manufacturing and construction have mixed effects on the energy use of the G7 countries, increasing by 2.37% and reducing by 6.65% and 8.39% in some countries. The study proves that the transport sector is the hard-to-abate sector as the effects of the transport covariate impact minimally between 6.49% and 4.13% of the G7. This means that the transport sector is the high-hanging fruit for deep decarbonization due to the low level of technology readiness. Also, emissions from solid fuels increase between 6.49% and 4.13% in the G7 countries, implying that coal consumption has peaked due to the current energy crisis. The cross-sectional dependence (CD) analysis proves a strong significant dependence among the study countries depicting the global nature of pollution. The fitness of the model was performed using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria to determine the appropriate method to present robust and consistent results. The panel's negative Poisson regression model obtains the lowest Akaike information criteria and Bayesian information criteria values and is therefore the most appropriate model for the analysis. This will serve as a rallying point for achieving net zero emission (NZE) targets by mid-century and for scaling technologies to achieve that goal.

Potential evolution of the renewable hydrogen sector using California as a reference market

This paper describes a multi-element analysis to assess least-cost approaches to scaling the renewable hydrogen sector to support deep decarbonization of applications requiring energy dense, transportable, and storable fuel. The analysis uses California as a reference market. The focus of the analysis is understanding the resource potential and cost evolution of renewable hydrogen dispensed as vehicle fuel (the anchor source of demand) and determining the feasibility and timing of achieving fuel cost parity with conventional fuels adjusting for fuel-economy. The analysis is novel in that is fully cross-sectoral on the demand side and multi-technology and spatially resolved at the facility level on the supply side. Production technology shares are assessed based on relative cost of produced hydrogen including feedstock constraints. Technology costs are benchmarked and projected using both secondary sources and primary analysis. The sectoral demand forecast is based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessment of cost competitiveness with alternative decarbonization strategies. The overall conclusion is that, with appropriate policy support, the RH2 sector can reach self-sustainability (price point at parity with conventional fuel on a fuel-economy adjusted basis) by the mid to late 2020s. The analysis also brings into focus the massive construction program needed to scale the renewable hydrogen sector at a regional scale.

Modelling least-cost technology pathways to decarbonise the New South Wales energy system by 2050

Deep decarbonisation pathways can enable the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia to reach a net-zero emissions reduction goal and contribute to global mitigation efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C by mid-century. This paper explores minimum cost solutions for achieving the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for NSW, using an Australian implementation of the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework. This paper investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target. It includes both a higher emissions reference case scenario and a scenario implementing the NSW state government's target of net-zero emissions by 2050 under the NSW Climate Change Policy Framework, consistent with the international Paris Agreement on climate change, with available and viable well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro and can entirely phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies along with policy supports are crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. In addition, electrification and energy efficiency improvements play a significant role in the end-use sector's energy consumption reduction in the coming decades. This paper shows that the electricity sector is the dominant contributor to emission reductions up to the year 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors are set to decarbonise later in the projection period (2030–2050) along this least-cost trajectory. However, the NSW government's aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050 can be achieved by 2039 by offsetting negative emissions.

Modelling the integrated achievement of clean cooking access and climate mitigation goals: An energy systems optimization approach

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal target 7.1, to provide universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy by 2030, must be achieved in the context of rapid reductions in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While replacing solid cooking fuels with liquid petroleum gas (LPG) opens questions about the compatibility of energy access and climate mitigation objectives, the environmental impact of 2.6 billion people continuing to rely on solid fuel for cooking and heating is significant. However, models used to map deep decarbonization pathways typically do not feature a granular pathway for universal clean cooking access, which limits the representation of these two interconnected transitions, mitigating climate change and achieving universal energy access. Here, we present a novel methodology for representing residential cooking pathways within the TIMES energy systems optimization model (ESOM) framework. The methodology is demonstrated using India as a proof-of-concept case study, where scenario analysis explores solutions that reach universal clean cooking access in the context of GHG emissions reductions. The model presented here is published and publicly available to access.

Energy efficiency potentials in the EU industry: impacts of deep decarbonization technologies

Increasing the energy efficiency in high energy demand sectors such as industry with a high reliance on coal, oil and natural gas is considered a pivotal step towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement targets. The European Commission published final energy demand projections for industry capturing current policies and market trends up to 2050. This Reference scenario for industry in 2050, however, does not give insights into the extent to which energy efficiency potentials are already implemented, in which sectors further efficiency can be achieved, to what extent or with which technologies. In this paper, the EU Reference scenario is broken down and compared to a Frozen Efficiency scenario with similar GDP developments but without energy efficiency. Through bottom-up analyses, it is found that with energy efficiency technologies alone, this Reference scenario for industry energy demands (10.6 EJ in 2050) cannot be achieved. That means that the EU Reference assumes higher energy efficiency than possible and too high an effect of current policies. In the Frozen Efficiency scenario, the energy demand reaches 14.2 EJ in 2050 due to the GDP development; 22% higher than 2015. Energy efficiency improvements and increased recycling can decrease industrial energy demand by 23% (11.3 EJ in 2050). In order to further reduce the energy demand, our analyses shows that the wide implementation of innovative in combination with electrification or hydrogen technologies can further decrease the 2050 energy demand to 9.7 EJ or 10.3 EJ, respectively.

Energy stability and decarbonization in developing countries: Random Forest approach for forecasting of crude oil trade flows and macro indicators

The paper observes the dependence of the main macroeconomic indicators in developing countries from the change in world prices for crude oil. We analyzed a system of simultaneous equations, which makes it possible to verify some of these hypotheses, and developed the model to forecast the impact of oil prices on budget revenues. The practical significance of this work lies in the structuring of existing knowledge on the impact of oil crisis. The results of this work can be considered confirmation of the hypothesis of the sensitivity of U.S. macroeconomic indicators to the dynamics of oil prices. Outcomes assume stable growth even in the period of shock prices for oil, which is confirmed by the statistics that were used in the model. Deep decarbonization modeling is a trend in industrial facilities that are used by developing countries. The major challenge is the issue of availability that is applicable to the countries that want to utilize this facility in their communities. Industrial modeling toward decarbonization is now a developing mechanism to curb the growing issue of atmospheric pollution. This paper proves the relevance of promoting deep decarbonization applied by the developing countries.

Capacity evaluation of central air conditioning load participating in peak shaving of renewable dominated power systems

The development of renewable-dominated power systems (RDPS) in the context of pursuing deep decarbonisation targets necessitates suitable exploitation of the peak shaving capacity (PSC) of central air conditioning loads (CACL) in multiple time scales. Based on the evaluation framework of CACL participating in the RDPS PSC and the CAC apparent temperature model and its operation mode, the CACL PSC evaluation model related to the resource allocation in multiple time scales is proposed. For the time scale of online dispatching, the capacity evaluation model for rapid CACL response to power system emergency peak shaving command and its continuous response potential is constructed. The method of optimising CACL PSC based on the load aggregator model is developed. For the intraday pre-scheduling time scale, the evaluation model of CACL's remaining capacity after undertaking the peak shaving task and the ability to respond continuously to the peak shaving command is constructed. For the day-ahead dispatching time scale, the PSC of CACL under different weather conditions, temperatures, holidays, and other typical scenarios is evaluated. Finally, case studies carried out on 14 central air-conditioned buildings in Shanghai city comprehensively validate the effectiveness of the proposed CACL PSC evaluation model.

“Cooperative is an oxymoron!”: A polycentric energy transition perspective on distributed energy deployment in the Upper Midwestern United States

Load management is the practice of adjusting demand in an electricity system through remote control of—or incentives to operate—grid-edge technologies in alignment with system goals. Although load management functions as a distributed energy resource (DER) and can play a critical role in cost-effective deployment of renewable energy toward economy-wide deep decarbonization, there has been little energy transitions research on how electric grid actors initiate and manage DER deployments over time. We use interviews and archival research to compare case studies of electric cooperatives in the United States, tracing how cooperatives deployed more than 600,000 load management devices over 70 years. Using polycentricism as a frame, we find that DER deployments comprise common pool resources that are strategically created and negotiated across scales by different centers of decision-making over time. Our findings rebut the assumption that DER deployments are solely the result of policies or markets, showing that DER deployments are instead polycentric acts of cooperation and competition. DER deployments require diverse intermediaries within and across levels of deployment, from policy to users, over many years. We show that polycentric governance that builds vertical coordination across local and regional actors can support broad, deep, and distributed energy transition.

Evolution of smart grids towards the Internet of energy: Concept and essential components for deep decarbonisation

To achieve low-carbon sustainable energy development, new technologies such as Internet of Energy (IoE), intelligent systems and Internet of Things (IoT) as well as distributed energy generations via smart grids (SG) are gaining attention. The interoperability between intelligent energy systems, realised through the web, enables automatic consumption optimisation and increases network efficiency and intelligent management. IoE is an intriguing topic in close connection with the IoT, communication systems, SG and electrical mobility that contributes to energy efficiency to achieve zero-carbon technologies and green environments. Furthermore, nowadays, the widespread growth and utilisation of processors for mining digital currency in homes and small warehouses are some other factors to be considered in terms of electric energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission. However, research on the use of the Internet for evaluating the misallocation of energy and the effect it can have on CO2 emissions is often neglected. In this study, the authors present a detailed overview regarding the evolution of SG in conjunction with the employment of IoE systems as well as the essential components of IoE for decarbonisation. Also, mathematical models with simulation are provided to evaluate the role of IoE in reducing CO2 emission.

Narrowing fossil fuel consumption in the Indian road transport sector towards reaching carbon neutrality

Road transportation accounts for 56% of India's transportation sector's CO2 emissions. Reaching carbon neutrality before 2070 requires the deep decarbonization of this sector. This study assesses the potential of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel-cell vehicles (FCV) as the least-cost pathway toward carbon neutrality. We estimate the future demand for passenger and freight services and evaluate the impact of EV policies using the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment, and Economy for Sustainable Development/Technology (IMED/TEC). The study covers road transport emissions, energy, and air pollution transitions under four scenarios, including reference, low, medium, and high penetration of BEV and FCV, which align with the decarbonization target agreed upon under India's national policy. Results show that the carbon neutrality target would be challenging with BEV alone in road passenger and freight transportation because it is less efficient. Combined penetration of BEV and FCV can reduce air pollutant emissions significantly. Operative implementation of FCV could diminish more than 96% of the total road transport CO2 emissions. The analytical framework also proposes local climate change policies towards a carbon neutrality strategy to escalate the share of BEV and FCV in the Indian road transport sector.

Political leadership has limited impact on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies

For countries to rapidly decarbonize, they need strong leadership, according to both academic studies and popular accounts. But leadership is difficult to measure, and its importance is unclear. We use original data to investigate the role of presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs in 155 countries from 1990 to 2015 in changing their countries' gasoline taxes and subsidies. Our findings suggest that the impact of leaders on fossil fuel taxes and subsidies is surprisingly limited and often ephemeral. This holds true regardless of the leader's age, gender, education, or political ideology. Rulers who govern during an economic crisis perform no better or worse than other rulers. Even presidents and prime ministers who were recognized by the United Nations for environmental leadership had no more success than other leaders in reducing subsidies or raising fuel taxes. Where leaders appear to play an important role-primarily in countries with large subsidies-their reforms often failed, with subsidies returning to prereform levels within the first 12 mo 62% of the time, and within 5 y 87% of the time. Our findings suggest that leaders of all types find it exceptionally hard to raise the cost of fossil fuels for consumers. To promote deep decarbonization, leaders are likely to have more success with other types of policies, such as reducing the costs and increasing the availability of renewable energy.

Data-driven scheme for optimal day-ahead operation of a wind/hydrogen system under multiple uncertainties

Hydrogen is believed as a promising energy carrier that contributes to deep decarbonization, especially for the sectors hard to be directly electrified. A grid-connected wind/hydrogen system is a typical configuration for hydrogen production. For such a system, a critical barrier lies in the poor cost-competitiveness of the produced hydrogen. Researchers have found that flexible operation of a wind/hydrogen system is possible thanks to the excellent dynamic properties of electrolysis. This finding implies the system owner can strategically participate in day-ahead power markets to reduce the hydrogen production cost. However, the uncertainties from imperfect prediction of the fluctuating market price and wind power reduce the effectiveness of the offering strategy in the market. In this paper, we proposed a decision-making framework, which is based on data-driven robust chance constrained programming (DRCCP). This framework also includes multi-layer perception neural network (MLPNN) for wind power and spot electricity price prediction. Such a DRCCP-based decision framework (DDF) is then applied to make the day-ahead decision for a wind/hydrogen system. It can effectively handle the uncertainties, manage the risks and reduce the operation cost. The results show that, for the daily operation in the selected 30 days, offering strategy based on the framework reduces the overall operation cost by 24.36%, compared to the strategy based on imperfect prediction. Besides, we elaborate the parameter selections of the DRCCP to reveal the best parameter combination to obtain better optimization performance. The efficacy of the DRCCP method is also highlighted by the comparison with the chance-constrained programming method.

Explore mitigation potential in indonesia’s power sub-sector toward 2060: AIM/End-Use approach

The power sector in Indonesia has a significant chance to contribute to the accomplishment of the national emission mitigation target towards NZE (Net Zero emissions) in 2060. In this study, a quantitative evaluation was used to explore and analyze the effectiveness of mitigation efforts toward energy saving potential and GHG emission reduction, as well as the cost-effectiveness of mitigation actions based on the AIM/end-use model. The RUPTL mitigation efforts (CM1 & CM2) contribute 40% (CM1) and 46% (CM2) of the energy sector’s First NDC GHG emission reduction target. Through CM3, the power sector will peak GHG emissions in 2035. This will lead to carbon neutrality by 2060. The considerable reduction in GHG emissions is affected by new and renewable development, low carbon technologies, coal phase-out, and the integration of CCS technology with an additional investment cost of 1810 billion USD or 48 million USD/year (2022-2060). Deep decarbonization in CM3 could enable the power sector avoid carbon taxes and gain revenue $2.2 billion in 2060 from carbon trading.

Energy System Transition in the Context of NDC and Mitigation Strategies in Tunisia

The evolution of the Tunisian energy system in the next few decades will highly depend on the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution by 2030 and its potential long-term low-emission strategies. This study analyses the technology, emissions, energy systems and economic impacts of meeting Tunisia’s NDC targets (conditional and unconditional) and long-term transition pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Different climate policy targets and settings are explored using a detailed energy system model (MENA-EDS) that integrates detailed representations of energy demand and supply and their complex linkages through energy pricing. The analysis shows that in order to meet its NDC targets for 2030, current climate policies in Tunisia need substantial strengthening, based on the massive uptake of renewable energy technologies (especially solar PV and wind) and a reduction of oil and gas use. Long-term low-emission transitions leading to emission reductions of about 80% from baseline levels in 2050 is based on the further expansion of renewable energy within and beyond the electricity sector; the increased electrification of energy end-uses (especially through the uptake of electric vehicles in transport); accelerated energy efficiency improvements in transport, industries and buildings; and the emergence of low-carbon fuels. The study provides insights into the challenges to achieve the deep decarbonization of the Tunisian economy but also into the opportunities from energy sector-restructuring, including reduced energy import dependence and increased low-carbon investment.

Comparing policy pathways to achieve 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales by 2035

To comply with deep decarbonization targets, many governments are committing to the goal of reaching 100% zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales for their light-duty vehicle sector by 2035. This study compares policy pathways to meet this goal in the case of Canada: a ZEV sales mandate, a vehicle emissions standard (VES), a feebate system, and several combinations. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate the interaction of realistic consumer and automaker behaviour over the time horizon, with outputs including ZEV sales, GHG emissions, and policy costs (calculated as lost consumer surplus and automaker profits). All three policy types can potentially achieve the ZEV sales goal, though the ZEV mandate provides greater certainty. Further, the ZEV mandate is the most cost-effective way to meet the 2035 ZEV sales goal ($/tonne abated), followed by combinations of a ZEV-mandate with a VES. The feebate is costlier than the other policy types.