Deep Convective Precipitation Research Articles

Community structure of tropics emerging from spatio-temporal variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone dynamics

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a narrow tropical belt of deep convective clouds, intense precipitation, and monsoon circulations encircling the Earth. Complex interactions between the ITCZ and local geophysical dynamics result in high climate variability, making weather forecasting and prediction of extreme rainfall or drought events challenging. We unravel the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of the ITCZ and the resulting teleconnection patterns via a novel tropical climate classification achieved using complex network analysis and community detection. We reduce the high-dimensional complex ITCZ dynamics into a simple yet insightful community structure that classifies the tropics into seven regions representing distinct ITCZ dynamics. The two largest communities, encompassing landmasses over the Northern and Southern hemispheres, are associated with coherent seasonal ITCZ dynamics and have significant long-range connections. Temporal analysis of the community structure highlights that the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans communities exhibit substantial variation on multidecadal scales. Further, these communities exhibit incoherent dynamics due to atmosphere-ocean interactions driven by equatorial and coastal oceanic upwelling.

Dynamically computed characteristic adjustment time scale for Zhang–McFarlane convective parameterization scheme

AbstractCharacteristic adjustment time scale τ is an important parameter in convective parameterization scheme. In this paper, we propose a dynamic calculation formula of τ in the Zhang–McFarlane scheme based on convective available potential energy (CAPE) in order to improve the simulation of precipitation. The performance of using the new formula is tested and evaluated using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) for numerical experiments. The results indicate that the root mean square errors of mean precipitation amount over the Northern Hemisphere eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, the Tibetan Plateau, and northern South America are reduced by 20.15, 16.40, 12.56, and 6.45% in summer, respectively, after a dynamic τ is adopted. The dynamically computed τ improves the Pacific Walker circulation by strengthening the western ascending and eastern descending, and increases the intensity of deep convective precipitation in tropical areas by at least 1 mm/day. Dynamic τ also increases the frequency of large deep convective precipitation in the equatorial Pacific by almost 50%, and decreases the frequency of light deep convective precipitation in many other regions. The dynamic τ has positive effects in the areas with large CAPE and spatiotemporal variability, and also leads to an increase in deep convective precipitation and a significant decrease in large-scale precipitation over high-altitude regions of windward slopes. Therefore, the generation of exaggerated precipitation in the highlands is reduced in the CAM5. Overall, the dynamic calculation of characteristic adjustment time scale can improve precipitation simulation.

Radiative Impacts of Californian Marine Low Clouds on North Pacific Climate in a Global Climate Model

Abstract The northeastern Pacific climate system features an extensive low-cloud deck off California on the southeastern flank of the subtropical high that accompanies intense northeasterly trades and relatively low sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study assesses climatological impacts of the low-cloud deck and their seasonal differences by regionally turning on and off the low-cloud radiative effect in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model. The simulations demonstrate that the cloud radiative effect causes a local SST decrease of up to 3°C on an annual average with the response extending southwestward with intensified trade winds, indicative of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. This nonlocal wind response is strong in summer, when the SST decrease peaks due to increased shortwave cooling, and persists into autumn. In these seasons when the background SST is high, the lowered SST suppresses deep-convective precipitation that would otherwise occur in the absence of the low-cloud deck. The resultant anomalous diabatic cooling induces a surface anticyclonic response with the intensified trades that promote the WES feedback. Such seasonal enhancement of the atmospheric response does not occur without air–sea couplings. The enhanced trades accompany intensified upper-tropospheric westerlies, strengthening the vertical wind shear that, together with the lowered SST, acts to shield Hawaii from powerful hurricanes. On the basin scale, the anticyclonic surface wind response accelerates the North Pacific subtropical ocean gyre to speed up the Kuroshio by as much as 30%. SST thereby increases along the Kuroshio and its extension, intensifying upward turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to increase precipitation.

Oceanic and atmospheric anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events in China 1983-2020.

Observed synoptic anomalies in connection with China's extreme precipitation events/floods in the summers of 1982/83, 1997/98, 2010, 2014, 2015/16, and 2020 are studied. These events mainly occur within the middle and lower Yangtze basins. The dominant moisture source is the Northern Indian Ocean and the Southwestern Pacific Ocean of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Both of these bodies of water have warmed since 1979. In East Asia, the strong land-sea thermal contrast driven by global warming drives the increased East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which develops deep convective precipitation. The total precipitable water in the Indo-Pacific region has also been increasing since 1979. The intense southwest Indian monsoon transports moist air to the Yangtze basin in mid-June and forms the Meiyu (plum rain) front. Strengthened Okhotsk/Ural blocking highs in East and West Asia, as well as the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asian high (SAH) over south Eurasia, remain stationary for long periods and interact to exacerbate the precipitation. The western edge of the WPSH expands westward towards East Asia to transport moisture. To the north, the WPSH combines with the two blocking highs to trigger more rain. The intensified SAH expands eastward and merges with the extended WPSH to add rain. On the other hand, rainfall is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), notably in relation to the super El Niño events in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2020. The research described in this paper highlights changes in the weather systems with warming and, in particular, the enormous and dominating impact of the warming and expanding IPWP on rainfall extremes. Improved seasonal forecasts and planning ahead will protect lives and livelihoods.

The impacts of dust aerosol and convective available potential energy on precipitation vertical structure in southeastern China as seen from multisource observations

Abstract. The potential impacts of dust aerosols and atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) on the vertical development of precipitating clouds in southeastern China (20–30∘ N, 110–125∘ E) in June, July, and August from 2000 to 2013 were studied using multisource observations. In southeastern China, heavy-dust conditions are coupled with strong northerly winds that transport air masses containing high concentrations of mineral dust particles, with cold temperatures, and with strong wind shear. This leads to weaker CAPE on dusty days compared with that on pristine days. Based on satellite observations, precipitating drops under dusty conditions grow faster in the middle atmospheric layers (with a temperature of between −5 and +2 ∘C) but slower in the upper and lower layers compared with their pristine counterparts. For a given precipitation top height (PTH), the precipitation rate under dusty conditions is lower in the upper layer but higher in the middle and lower layers. Moreover, the associated latent heating rate released by precipitation in the middle layer is higher. The precipitation top temperature (PTT) shows a fairly good linear relationship with the near-surface rain rate (NSRR): the linear regression slope between the PTT and NSRR is stable under dusty and pristine conditions. However, the PTT0 (the PTT related to rain onset) at the onset of precipitation is highly affected by both the CAPE and aerosol conditions. On pristine days, a stronger CAPE facilitates the vertical development of precipitation and leads to a decrease in PTT0, at a rate of −0.65 ∘C per 100 J kg−1 of CAPE for deep convective precipitation (with a variation of 15 %) and at a rate of −0.41 ∘C per 100 J kg−1 of CAPE for stratiform precipitation (with variation of 12 %). After removing the impacts of CAPE on PTT, dust aerosols led to an increase in PTT0, at a rate of +4.19 ∘C per unit aerosol optical depth (AOD) for deep convective precipitation and at a rate of +0.35 ∘C per unit AOD for stratiform precipitation. This study showed clear evidence that meteorological conditions and aerosol conditions combine to impact the vertical development of precipitation clouds. A quantitative estimation of the sensitivity of PTT to CAPE and dust was also provided.

The double‐ITCZ problem in CMIP6 and the influences of deep convection and model resolution

AbstractThe double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias is an outstanding bias in many climate models. This work assesses the annual‐mean double‐ITCZ problem in the models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) based on several quantitative indices. Within the 46 CMIP6 models, 9 models from mainland China are evaluated as a group to verify the effort of model development from one perspective. The double‐ITCZ bias and its large intermodel spread still exist in CMIP6 models. The overall performance of the models from Chinese mainland is similar with all CMIP6 models. It is found that the top‐five models with relatively low double‐ITCZ biases can effectively restrain the frequency of deep convection and related sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the southeastern Pacific dry subsidence region, which highlights the necessity of improving convective physics in climate models. Impacts of model resolution on the double‐ITCZ problem are examined by comparing the high‐ and low‐resolution groups in CMIP6 and High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) historical experiments, respectively. Increased resolution in atmospheric models is found to be able to reduce the positive precipitation bias over the tropical southern Atlantic and improve the simulation of deep convection frequency and convective precipitation ratio there. However, the double‐ITCZ bias over the Pacific is not improved significantly by increased resolution.

Characteristics of Deep Convective Clouds, Precipitation, and Cloud Properties of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

AbstractToward the understanding of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, the TC's deep convective cloud (DCC), precipitation, and cloud properties in terms of cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and top height from satellite observations are investigated. Mean and radial distributions of the variables at different intensity stages and intensification categories are examined. The relationship indicates that the DCC percentage and temperature, especially their radial distributions, could be used to identify an impending RI regardless of TC intensity. Meanwhile, the mean and radial distribution of precipitation may discriminate RI from non‐RI in tropical depression (TD) and tropical storm (TS). The radial distribution of the cloud properties in rapidly intensifying TD and TS also suggest that most of the clouds near the center of the storm has deepened already while those that are far from the center are generally in developing or dissipating stage. Moreover, rapidly intensifying TCs, regardless of their intensities, manifest common DCC, precipitation, and cloud properties characteristics near the TC center. It is to be noted that the different mean and radial distribution characteristics of the variables between initial and continuing stages of RI are inferred to be artifacts of their intensities and RI rates (or radius of maximum wind sizes) rather than whether the TCs are at the onset or 24 hr of RI.

The Global Nature of Early‐Afternoon and Late‐Night Convection Through the Eyes of the A‐Train

AbstractCharacterizing macrophysical properties of deep convective systems on a global scale is a precursor to understanding their influence on Earth's Energy Budget and Water Cycle. This study documents the properties of global convective objects (COs) in the early afternoon (1:30 p.m. local time; LT) and overnight (1:30 a.m. LT) measurements from the A‐Train satellite constellation. CloudSat measurements are used to identify convective cores and establish their intensity, while other A‐Train data sets define cloud structure, storm spatial extent, rainfall yield, and radiative effects of each CO. Global distributions of storm characteristics are consistent with previous studies in which the most intense convection is located over tropical land, particularly over the Amazon and Congo Basin, while the largest COs occur over the Maritime Continent. Despite their limited twice‐daily sampling, A‐Train measurements capture that early afternoon convection over tropical land is both more intense and produces heavier rainfall than nighttime land‐based convection, while the day‐night differences are minimal over the tropical ocean. High‐resolution estimates of updraft cores reveal that CO size increases as the number of distinct cores in a CO increases owing to an increase in nonconvective rain and anvil cloud area. Convective objects generally cool the environment, which is strongest over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, but cooling weakens as the nonconvective cloud fraction increases such that 30% of COs actually exert a net warming effect. These results suggest that A‐Train measurements may capture bulk connections between deep convective cloud features, precipitation, and radiative effects despite a lack of complete diurnal sampling.

Impacts of Lake Surface Temperature on the Summer Climate Over the Great Lakes Region

AbstractThe surface of the Great Lakes interacts with the atmosphere, influencing the weather and climate over the Great Lakes Region (GLR). However, most climate models were not designed with sufficient emphasis on lake–atmosphere interactions, which could potentially cause model biases over the GLR. To understand how lake surface temperature (LST) affects the regional summer climate over the GLR, we conducted twin experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a spatial resolution of 4 km using two different LST data sets as the bottom boundary condition over the Great Lakes. Our simulations include 10 ensemble members for the summer of 2018 and a single multiyear run for the summers of 2014–2020. Results show that variations in LST influence atmospheric temperature and moisture at a local scale—while affecting the convective environment and precipitation processes over a much larger spatial scale. In particular, an LST that is only 1°C–3°C warmer (depending on the lake) increases near‐surface air temperature by 1.93°C and 0.97°C over Lake Superior and Lake Erie, respectively, and increases evaporation over the lakes by 0.23 and 1.1 mm day−1. The warmer LST reduces mesoscale convective precipitation upstream of the GLR; however, it increases isolated deep convective precipitation and nonconvective precipitation downstream of GLR due to increased local instability and enhancement of moisture transport. Our analyses confirm the robustness of these impacts, which is at least 2 times larger than the model internal variability and is seen across all simulated summer seasons.

How Do Regional Distributions of Daily Precipitation Change under Warming?

AbstractGlobal warming is changing the intensity distribution of daily precipitation, with an increased frequency of heavy precipitation and reduced frequency of light/moderate precipitation in general circulation model (GCM) projections. Projected future CMIP5 GCM changes in regional daily precipitation distribution can be described by a combination of two idealized modes: a frequency decrease mode, representing a reduction in the frequency of precipitation at all rain rates; and a frequency shift mode, where the distribution shifts toward heavier rain rates. A decrease in daily precipitation frequency and an increase in intensity are projected in most regions, but the magnitude of change shows large regional variations. The two modes generally capture the projected shift from light/moderate to heavy rain rates but do not recreate GCM changes at the very highest and lowest rain rates. We propose a simple framework for deep convective precipitation change based on the dry static energy (DSE) budget, which provides a physical explanation of these idealized modes in regions and seasons where deep convection dominates precipitation. One possibility is that a frequency decrease mode is driven by increased convective inhibition (CIN). In this DSE framework, increased moisture under warming could influence the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution, particularly at the highest rain rates, but does not govern the overall magnitude of the shift to heavier rain rates, which is not well described by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Changes in daily regional precipitation are not free to respond only to local changes (in e.g., moisture) but are also constrained by the DSE budget, particularly by DSE transport associated with the large-scale circulation.

Tropical Cirrus in Global Storm‐Resolving Models: 1. Role of Deep Convection

AbstractPervasive cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) influence the climate by altering the top‐of‐atmosphere radiation balance and stratospheric water vapor budget. These cirrus are often associated with deep convection, which global climate models must parameterize and struggle to accurately simulate. By comparing high‐resolution global storm‐resolving models from the Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non‐hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) intercomparison that explicitly simulate deep convection to satellite observations, we assess how well these models simulate deep convection, convectively generated cirrus, and deep convective injection of water into the TTL over representative tropical land and ocean regions. The DYAMOND models simulate deep convective precipitation, organization, and cloud structure fairly well over land and ocean regions, but with clear intermodel differences. All models produce frequent overshooting convection whose strongest updrafts humidify the TTL and are its main source of frozen water. Intermodel differences in cloud properties and convective injection exceed differences between land and ocean regions in each model. We argue that, with further improvements, global storm‐resolving models can better represent tropical cirrus and deep convection in present and future climates than coarser‐resolution climate models. To realize this potential, they must use available observations to perfect their ice microphysics and dynamical flow solvers.

Type‐Dependent Impact of Aerosols on Precipitation Associated With Deep Convective Cloud Over East Asia

AbstractAerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions represent one of the most significant uncertainties in climate simulation and projection. In particular, the impact of aerosols on precipitation is highly uncertain due to limited and conflicting observational evidence. A major challenge is to distinguish the effects of different types of aerosols on precipitation associated with deep convective clouds, which produces most of the precipitation in East Asia. Here, we use 9‐yr observations from multiple satellite‐borne sensors and find that the occurrent frequency of heavy rain increases while that of light rain decreases with the increase of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for dust and polluted continental aerosol types. For average hourly precipitation amount, elevated smoke tends to suppress deep convective precipitation, while dust and polluted continental aerosols enhance precipitation mainly through the invigoration of deep convection. The invigoration effect is more significant for clouds with higher cloud base temperature (CBT), while no significant invigoration is observed when CBT is <12°C. A great contrast is found for the response of average hourly precipitation amount to aerosols over ocean and land. While the prevailing continental aerosol types other than smoke increase precipitation, the marine aerosols first enhance and then inhibit precipitation with the increase of AOD. Moreover, our analysis indicates that the above‐mentioned enhancement and inhibition effects on precipitation are mainly caused by aerosols themselves, rather than by the covariation of meteorological factors. These observed relationships between different aerosol types and precipitation frequency and amount provide valuable constraints on the model forecasting of precipitation.

The Phenomenon of Diurnal Variations for Summer Deep Convective Precipitation over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Its Southern Regions as Viewed by TRMM PR

This study analyzed the diurnal variations of summer deep convective precipitation (DCP) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and its southern region. The results show that DCP is the main type of precipitation over the QTP. The precipitation intensity of DCP is less than 3 mm/h over the QTP, which is much lower than the precipitation intensity in non-plateau regions. DCP over non-plateau regions is related to the convergence of surface wind, but that over the QTP are not. The mean maximum echo of DCP is less than 26 dBZ over the QTP, less than in non-plateau regions. The mean altitude of maximum echo decreases from about 7.5 km in the western plateau to 6 km in the eastern plateau, while it reaches only 4.5–5 km in the non-plateau region. The DCP frequency peak occurs in the afternoon in the major area of the QTP including valley region. The peak time of DCP frequency is different from its intensity, and the former is 1 to 2 h earlier. Study also indicates strong diurnal variations in frequency, intensity, and the maximum echo over the QTP, which is consistent with diurnal changes of geopotential height fields of 500 hPa and 200 hPa.

Radiative Impacts of Low-Level Clouds on the Summertime Subtropical High in the South Indian Ocean Simulated in a Coupled General Circulation Model

AbstractOver the south Indian Ocean, the coupled system of the subtropical Mascarene high and low-level clouds exhibits marked seasonality. To investigate this seasonality, the present study assesses radiative impacts of low-level clouds on the summertime Mascarene high with a coupled general circulation model. Comparison between a fully coupled control simulation and a “no-low-cloud simulation,” where the radiative effects of low-level clouds are artificially turned off, demonstrates that they act to reinforce the Mascarene high. Their impacts are so significant that the summertime Mascarene high almost disappears in the no-low-cloud experiment, suggesting their essential role in the existence of the summertime Mascarene high. As the primary mechanism, lowered sea surface temperature by the cloud albedo effect suppresses deep convective precipitation, inducing a Matsuno–Gill type response that reinforces the high, as verified through an atmospheric dynamical model diagnosis. Associated reduction of high-top clouds, as well as increased low-level clouds, augments in-atmosphere radiative cooling, which further reinforces the high. The present study reveals that low-level clouds constitute a tight positive feedback system with the subtropical high via sea surface temperature over the summertime south Indian Ocean.

Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Deep Convection Observed along the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

Complex terrain features—in particular, environmental conditions, high population density and potential socio-economic damage—make the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) of particular interest regarding the study of deep convection and related severe weather. In this research, 10 years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations are combined with Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) rainfall data to characterize the spatio-temporal distribution of deep convective clouds (DCCs) and their relationship to extreme precipitation. From monthly distributions, wet and dry phases are identified for cloud fraction, deep convective cloud frequency and convective precipitation. For both DCC and extreme precipitation events, the highest frequencies align just over the higher elevations of the TMVB. A clear relationship between DCCs and terrain features, indicating the important role of orography in the development of convective systems, is noticed. For three sub-regions, the observed distributions of deep convective cloud and extreme precipitation events are assessed in more detail. Each sub-region exhibits different local conditions, including terrain features, and are known to be influenced differently by emerging moisture fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. The observed distinct spatio-temporal variabilities provide the first insights into the physical processes that control the convective development in the study area. A signal of the midsummer drought in Mexico (i.e., “canícula”) is recognized using MODIS monthly mean cloud observations.

Characterization of Surface Heterogeneity‐Induced Convection Using Cluster Analysis

AbstractLand‐atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes often control the formation of shallow clouds and subsequently deep convective precipitation over the U.S. Southern Great Plains. In this study, we examine the impacts of large‐scale advection on the cloud populations and land‐atmospheric coupling observed during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land‐Ecosystems field campaign in 2016. We performed two large eddy simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for a day in which the transition from clear‐sky to shallow precipitating clouds and isolated deep convection was observed. The control simulation reproduced the overall distribution of cloud populations by using realistic soil conditions with an interactive land model. In the sensitivity simulation where large‐scale advection is removed, a strong relationship between the land and boundary layer is found. To study the timing, location, and intensity of convective initiation and the relationship of clouds with land surface properties, a cluster analysis of equivalent potential temperature is performed for the simulation without large‐scale advection. That analysis shows that convective clouds first form over regions with higher surface sensible heat flux. Precipitation from those convective clouds likely triggers new updrafts nearby about 2 hr later through the lifting associated with cold pools. The cluster analysis also shows that in addition to the spatial pattern of soil moisture, land use and soil texture in western Oklahoma also influence the location of convective initiation.

Isotopic variability (δ18O, δ2H and d-excess) during rainfall events of the north American monsoon across the Sonora River Basin, Mexico

The economic activities of the Sonora strongly depend on groundwater extraction, which is generally of recent meteoric origin. Understanding the hydrological functioning in this semi-arid region, located in northwestern Mexico, is crucial for integrated water management in a changing climate. This study presents a spatio-temporal analysis of the isotopic composition (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) during the 2018 rainy season in the Sonora River Basin (SRB), a region influenced by the characteristic weather conditions of the North American Monsoon (NAM). The basin is located in the central region of Sonora and covers an area of approximately 27,000 km2. Precipitation was collected using six passive totalizers, distributed spatially from the coast of the Gulf of California up to 1,425 m asl inland. The rainfall isotopic composition is comparable with the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) and with the records of the Global Isotope Network in Precipitation (GNIP) in Chihuahua, Mexico, between 1962 and 1988, and Tucson, Arizona (2018). The temporal variability of rainfall isotope ratios was Δ18O = 7.4‰ and Δ2H = 49.8‰, with a clear depletion pattern (low δ18O) as the monsoon rainy season progressed. The isotopic lapse rate was found to be −1.0‰ in δ18O per km of elevation as a result of the topography relief and rainout effects within the basin. The influence of tropical cyclones such as Hurricane Sergio (October 2018) provided the opportunity to isolate the effects of a tropical storm with respect to the deep convective precipitation, typical of the NAM systems over northwest Mexico.

On resolution sensitivity in the Community Atmosphere Model

AbstractAdvances in high‐performance computing make it possible to run atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) over an increasingly wider range of grid resolutions, using either globally uniform or variable‐resolution grids. In principle, this is an exciting opportunity to resolve atmospheric process and scales in a global model and in unprecedented detail, but in practice this grid flexibility is incompatible with the non‐ or weakly converging solutions with increasing horizontal resolution that have long characterized AGCMs. In the the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), there are robust sensitivities to horizontal resolution that have persisted since the model was first introduced over thirty years ago; the atmosphere progressively dries and becomes less cloudy with resolution, and parametrized deep convective precipitation decreases at the expense of stratiform precipitation. This study documents a convergence experiment using CAM, version 6, and argues that a unifying cause, the sensitivity of resolved dynamical modes to native grid resolution, feeds back into other model components and explains these robust sensitivities to resolution. The increasing magnitudes of resolved vertical velocities with resolution are shown to fit an analytic scaling derived for the equations of motion at hydrostatic scales. This trend in vertical velocities results in an increase in resolved upward moisture fluxes at cloud base, balanced by an increase in stratiform precipitation rates with resolution. Compensating, greater magnitude subsiding motion with resolution has previously been shown to dry out the atmosphere and reduce cloud cover. Here, it is shown that both the increase in condensational heating from stratiform cloud formation and greater subsidence drying contribute to an increase in atmospheric stability with resolution, reducing the activity of parametrized convection. The impact of changing the vertical velocity field with native grid resolution cannot be ignored in any effort to recover convergent solutions in AGCMs, and, in particular, the development of scale‐aware physical parametrizations.

Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail

Abstract. Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as the vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor mass contents and precipitation variables. In particular, the uncertainty in the fall velocities of graupel and hail account for more than 65 % of the variance of all considered precipitation variables and for 30 %–90 % of the variance of the integrated hydrometeor mass contents. In contrast, variations in the environmental parameters – the range of which is limited to represent model uncertainty – mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates.

Mesoscale precipitation systems and their role in the rapid development of a monsoon depression over the Bay of Bengal

AbstractThe structure of mesoscale precipitation within monsoon depressions is still not as well‐known as the synoptic‐scale composite cloud and precipitation structure. Here, using observational data from multi‐satellite sensors and a cloud‐resolving regional model, we investigate the three‐dimensional structure of mesoscale precipitation systems in the different stages of the life cycle of a monsoon depression. Effects of latent heating from the precipitation systems and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) on the development of the monsoon depression are also evaluated in sensitivity experiments with the model. A typical monsoon depression developed on 17 August 2016 over the BoB. In the rapid development phase, satellite observations reveal mesoscale convective systems with deep convective precipitation cells and stratiform precipitation near the head of the BoB. Extremely deep and intense convective cells appear along a ring‐like rain band when a closed cyclonic circulation becomes obvious around the northernmost part of the BoB. The deep convection appears frequently, particularly along the western‐to‐southwestern side of the low, a convergence‐prone area between northerlies with air masses of large convective available potential energy (CAPE) that makes up the western–southwestern part of the closed cyclonic circulation, and strong monsoon westerlies with relatively stable air masses to the south of the low. Sensitivity experiments reveal that both cloud/precipitation processes and evaporation from the BoB are essential for the rapid development of the monsoon depression over the BoB. Evaporation from the BoB adds a large amount of moisture to the atmospheric boundary layer near the low. Southwesterlies and southerlies on the eastern side of the low draw in warm, humid boundary‐layer air to the closed cyclonic circulation, which maintains a large‐CAPE environment in the low and enhances deep convection. A possible positive feedback process including moist convection that leads to the rapid intensification of monsoon depressions over the BoB is discussed.