Decreases In Cloud Fraction Research Articles

Energy budget trends over the Korean peninsula in the past 20 years

The term “Energy Budget” represents the incoming solar energy, outgoing amounts of energy, and the energy retained in the Earth’s atmosphere. This article aims to analyze the energy budget trend in the Korean Peninsula over the period from 2001 to 2022, focusing on the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) and the role of cloud cover and how it influences shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. Using the dataset obtained from NASA’s CERES satellite, the article investigates the amount of reflected and emitted energy globally and compares it with the Korean peninsula. The findings indicate that globally, the total wave which is the sum of all longwave, shortwave, and cloud shortwave radiation has increased in trend. The plot also displays a decrease in Cloud fraction (CL fraction) or cloud coverage. Contrary to this, the Korean peninsula displayed a relatively stable level of total radiation and an increase in CL fraction. However, further analysis is needed to understand the factors behind these regional differences, including the potential influence of monsoon circulation patterns.

Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000

AbstractSatellite observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System show that Earth’s energy imbalance has doubled from 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the first 10 years of this century to 1.0 ± 0.2 Wm−2 during the past decade. The increase is the result of a 0.9 ± 0.3 Wm−2 increase absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by a 0.4 ± 0.25 Wm−2 increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Despite marked differences in ASR and OLR trends during the hiatus (2000–2010), transition-to-El Niño (2010–2016) and post-El Niño (2016–2022) periods, trends in net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 Wm−2 per decade of one another, implying a steady acceleration of climate warming. Northern and southern hemisphere trends in NET are consistent to 0.06 ± 0.31 Wm−2 per decade due to a compensation between weak ASR and OLR hemispheric trend differences of opposite sign. We find that large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing ASR trends in the northern hemisphere (NH). These changes are especially large over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean, and coincide with large increases in sea-surface temperature (SST). The decrease in cloud fraction and higher SSTs over the NH sub-tropics lead to a significant increase in OLR from cloud-free regions, which partially compensate for the NH ASR increase. Decreases in middle cloud reflection and a weaker reduction in low-cloud reflection account for the increase in ASR in the southern hemisphere, while OLR changes are weak. Changes in cloud cover in response to SST increases imply a feedback to climate change yet a contribution from radiative forcing or internal variability cannot be ruled out.

Diurnal to Decadal Variability in Land Surface and Air Temperature Gradient from 2002 to 2022 over the Contiguous United States

Abstract The surface and air temperature gradient (TS00 − Tair) drives the development of the convective boundary layer and the occurrence of clouds and precipitation. However, its variability is still poorly understood due to the lack of high-quality observations. This study fills in this gap by investigating the diurnal to decadal variability in TS00 − Tair from 2002 to 2022 based on hourly observations collected at over 100 stations of the U.S. Climate Reference Network. It is found that TS00 − Tair reaches its maximum at noon with an average of 6.85°C over the contiguous United States, which decreases to 4.28°C when the soil moisture exceeds 30%. The daily minimum of TS00 − Tair has an average of −2.08°C, which generally occurs in the early evening but is postponed as the cloud fraction decreases. Moreover, while existing studies have used the near-surface soil temperature, such as the 5-cm soil temperature (TS05), to calculate TS05 − Tair, we find that TS00 − Tair and TS05 − Tair have opposite diurnal cycles, and their amplitudes differed drastically. The daily minimum of TS00 − Tair has a significant decreasing trend (−0.50° ± 0.007°C decade−1) from 2002 to 2022 due to Tair increasing at a higher rate than TS00 during the nighttime. The occurrence frequency of near-surface stable conditions (TS00 − Tair < 0) increases significantly, and the frequency of unstable conditions (TS00 − Tair > 0) decreases notably throughout the year except for winter. When it is stable, the magnitude of TS00 − Tair tends to decrease while the TS00 − Tair tends to increase when it is unstable, which is consistent with the drying condition caused by the precipitation deficit. This study provides the first observational evidence on how TS00 − Tair responds to warming. Significance Statement The impact of global warming on surface-air temperature gradients is a crucial scientific issue that needs to be addressed. These gradients determine changes in cloud and precipitation, affecting water resources. However, traditional surface temperature measurements from weather stations are of high uncertainty due to direct exposure to the insolation. Satellite retrieval of surface temperature is limited by the availability of clear sky conditions, with low accuracy for temperature gradient calculations. Despite their importance, high-accuracy data of land surface temperature are still lacking. To address this issue, the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) uses infrared radiometers to continuously monitor surface temperature with high accuracy and sampling frequency. This study reports on surface-air temperature gradients at more than 100 U.S. stations, providing insight into diurnal to decadal variability over the contiguous United States. The study also highlights the significant difference between the land surface temperature–air temperature gradient and soil temperature–air temperature gradient.

Vertical Resolution Impacts Explicit Simulation of Deep Convection

AbstractThe aggregation of tropical convection greatly influences the mean‐state of the atmosphere, altering humidity distributions, total atmospheric radiative cooling, and cloud amounts. Although studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of convective aggregation to horizontal resolution and domain size, few studies have explored the impact of vertical resolution on convective aggregation. Here, we investigate the impact of vertical resolution on simulations of deep convection and convective aggregation using the System for Atmospheric Modeling convection resolving model. We analyze simulations of tropical radiative‐convective equilibrium with varying vertical levels (32, 64, 128, and 256) across small (100 km), medium (700 km) and large (1,500 km) domains. We demonstrate that relative humidity and cloud fraction decrease with increasing vertical resolution as a result of reduced turbulent mixing. Vertical resolution also influences the occurrence of, onset time, and equilibrium intensity of aggregated convection, and also appears to affect the sensitivity of convective aggregation to domain size. Understanding how simulated convection aggregates, as well as its simulated sensitivity to model formulation, is critical for making and interpreting future predictions of global climate change.

Examining cloud vertical structure and radiative effects from satellite retrievals and evaluation of CMIP6 scenarios

Abstract. Clouds exhibit a wide range of vertical morphologies that are regulated by distinct atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics and are related to a diversity of microphysical properties and radiative effects. In this study, the new CERES-CloudSat-CALIPSO-MODIS (CCCM) RelD1 dataset is used to investigate the morphology and spatial distribution of different cloud vertical structure (CVS) types during 2007–2010. The combined active and passive satellites provide a more precise CVS than those only based on passive imagers or microwave radiometers. We group the clouds into 12 CVS classes based on how they are located or overlapping in three standard atmospheric layers with pressure thresholds of 440 and 680 hPa. For each of the 12 CVS types, the global average cloud radiative effects (CREs) at the top of the atmosphere, within the atmosphere and at the surface, as well as the cloud heating rate (CHR) profiles are examined. The observations are subsequently used to evaluate the variations in total, high-, middle- and low-level cloud fractions in CMIP6 models. The “historical” experiment during 1850–2014 and two scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585) during 2015–2100 are analyzed. The observational results show a substantial difference in the spatial pattern among different CVS types, with the greatest contrast between high and low clouds. Single-layer cloud fraction is almost 4 times larger on average than multi-layer cloud fraction, with significant geographic differences associated with clearly distinguishable regimes, showing that overlapping clouds are regionally confined. The global average CREs reveal that four types of CVSs warm the planet, while eight of them cool it. The longwave component drives the net CHR profile, and the CHR profiles of multi-layer clouds are more curved and intricate than those of single-layer clouds, resulting in complex thermal stratifications. According to the long-term analysis from CMIP6, the projected total cloud fraction decreases faster over land than over the ocean. The high clouds over the ocean increase significantly, but other types of clouds over land and the ocean continue to decrease, helping to offset the decrease in oceanic total cloud fraction. Moreover, it is concluded that the spatial pattern of CVS types may not be significantly altered by climate change, and only the cloud fraction is influenced. Our findings suggest that long-term observed CVS should be emphasized in the future to better understand CVS responses to anthropogenic forcing and climate change.

Change from aerosol-driven to cloud-feedback-driven trend in short-wave radiative flux over the North Atlantic

Abstract. Aerosol radiative forcing and cloud–climate feedbacks each have a large effect on climate, mainly through modification of solar short-wave radiative fluxes. Here we determine what causes the long-term trends in the upwelling short-wave (SW) top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes (FSW↑) over the North Atlantic region. Coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations from the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC3.1) show a positive FSW↑ trend between 1850 and 1970 (increasing SW reflection) and a negative trend between 1970 and 2014. We find that the 1850–1970 positive FSW↑ trend is mainly driven by an increase in cloud droplet number concentration due to increases in aerosol, while the 1970–2014 trend is mainly driven by a decrease in cloud fraction, which we attribute mainly to cloud feedbacks caused by greenhouse gas-induced warming. In the 1850–1970 period, aerosol-induced cooling and greenhouse gas warming roughly counteract each other, so the temperature-driven cloud feedback effect on the FSW↑ trend is weak (contributing to only 23 % of the ΔFSW↑), and aerosol forcing is the dominant effect (77 % of ΔFSW↑). However, in the 1970–2014 period the warming from greenhouse gases intensifies, and the cooling from aerosol radiative forcing reduces, resulting in a large overall warming and a reduction in FSW↑ that is mainly driven by cloud feedbacks (87 % of ΔFSW↑). The results suggest that it is difficult to use satellite observations in the post-1970 period to evaluate and constrain the magnitude of the aerosol–cloud interaction forcing but that cloud feedbacks might be evaluated. Comparisons with observations between 1985 and 2014 show that the simulated reduction in FSW↑ and the increase in temperature are too strong. However, the temperature discrepancy can account for only part of the FSW↑ discrepancy given the estimated model feedback strength (λ=∂FSW∂T). The remaining discrepancy suggests a model bias in either λ or in the strength of the aerosol forcing (aerosols are reducing during this time period) to explain the too-strong decrease in FSW↑, with a λ bias being the most likely. Both of these biases would also tend to cause too-large an increase in temperature over the 1985–2014 period, which would be consistent with the sign of the model temperature bias reported here. Either of these model biases would have important implications for future climate projections using these models.

The Response of the Large‐Scale Tropical Circulation to Warming

AbstractPrevious work has found that as the surface warms the large‐scale tropical circulations weaken, convective anvil cloud fraction decreases, and atmospheric static stability increases. Circulation changes inevitably lead to changes in the humidity and cloud fields which influence the surface energetics. The exchange of mass between the boundary layer (BL) and the midtroposphere has also been shown to weaken in global climate models. What has remained less clear is how robust these changes in the circulation are to different representations of convection, clouds, and microphysics in numerical models. We use simulations from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project to investigate the interaction between overturning circulations, surface temperature, and atmospheric moisture. We analyze the underlying mechanisms of these relationships using a 21‐member model ensemble that includes both General Circulation Models and Cloud‐system Resolving Models. We find a large spread in the change of intensity of the overturning circulation. Both the range of the circulation intensity, and its change with warming can be explained by the range of the mean upward vertical velocity. There is also a consistent decrease in the exchange of mass between the BL and the midtroposphere. However, the magnitude of the decrease varies substantially due to the range of responses in both mean precipitation and mean precipitable water. We hypothesize based on these results that despite well understood thermodynamic constraints, there is still a considerable ability for the cloud fields and the precipitation efficiency to drive a substantial range of tropical convective responses to warming.

Marine Warm Cloud Fraction Decreases Monotonically With Rain Rate for Fixed Vertical and Horizontal Cloud Sizes

AbstractPrecipitation has been hypothesized to play a key role in the determination of cloud fraction (CF). The relationships between CF and rain rate (R) in marine boundary layer clouds were studied based on long‐term satellite retrievals. We find that both CF and R increase with cloud geometric width (CGW) and thickness (CGT). Increased CGW causes increased R even without cloud deepening, but increasing CGW beyond 15 km leads to a slight decrease in R. Coincident change in CF and R with increased CGW causes a spurious positive CF‐R relationship. When fixing CGT and CGW, CF generally decreases monotonically with increasing R, and the dependence generally weakens with warmer sea surface temperature and thinner, larger clouds. This finding supports well the hypothesis that aerosols could increase cloudiness by suppressing precipitation. This study also emphasizes the importance of cloud morphology in marine boundary layer cloud studies connected to precipitation processes.

Properties, Changes, and Controls of Deep‐Convecting Clouds in Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium

AbstractChanges in tropical high clouds associated with deep convection with warming are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate feedbacks. Here, we leverage an ensemble of models of many types in an idealized configuration to investigate how and why high clouds change the way they do. We find that deep‐convecting anvils, independent of how cloud fraction is defined, increase in height, increase slightly in temperature, and (generally) decrease in cloud fraction with warming sea surface temperature (SST). The controls on anvil height and temperature have well established physical reasoning, but the response of anvil cloud fraction to warming is more variable across studies and not as well understood. We test a previously published hypothesis for control of anvil coverage and find that, at least to first order, it is highly controlled by radiatively‐driven divergence, in which, with warming, anvil clouds occur in a more stable environment requiring less divergence to balance radiative cooling and, therefore, decreasing cloud coverage. We also find mid‐level clouds robustly decrease in coverage with warming SST and can be represented by a diagnostic scaling which attributes the robust decrease in mid‐level clouds to the rapid increase in the overall convective heating of the clouds compared to the much slower increase in the integrated radiative cooling rate. The robust response of deep‐convective clouds to warming and support for the underlying physical mechanisms across the spectrum of models, with both explicit and parameterized convection, increases confidence in their contribution to climate feedbacks.

The impact of rain rate, raining patch size, and spacing on southeastern Pacific cloud fraction transitions

Rain-induced cold pools are one mechanism by which transitions in cloud fraction in marine stratocumulus over the southeast Pacific occur. We use CloudSat/CALIPSO to identify raining patches within stratocumulus over the southeast Pacific, and then calculate the cloud fraction surrounding each raining patch, nearest-neighbor distance (spacing), mean rain rate, and raining patch size (extent). The spatial patterns show that as cloud fraction decreases and rain rate increases from east to west, a minimum in spacing exists between 80 °W-100 °W, but the maximum extent occurs further west. Holding spacing constant, cloud fraction decreases with rain rate but increases with extent. Additionally, cloud fraction is generally lower between 80 °W-100 °W when cells are large. This behavior is consistent with the idea that heavier rainfall associated with larger cells may result in possible cold pool interactions that could drive lower cloud fractions around the largest cells producing the most intense rainfall.

Quantifying and attributing time step sensitivities in present-day climate simulations conducted with EAMv1

Abstract. This study assesses the relative importance of time integration error in present-day climate simulations conducted with the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) at 1∘ horizontal resolution. We show that a factor-of-6 reduction of time step size in all major parts of the model leads to significant changes in the long-term mean climate. Examples of changes in 10-year mean zonal averages include the following: up to 0.5 K of warming in the lower troposphere and cooling in the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere, 1 %–10 % decreases in relative humidity throughout the troposphere, and 10 %–20 % decreases in cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and decreases exceeding 20 % in the subtropical lower troposphere. In terms of the 10-year mean geographical distribution, systematic decreases of 20 %–50 % are seen in total cloud cover and cloud radiative effects in the subtropics. These changes imply that the reduction of temporal truncation errors leads to a notable although unsurprising degradation of agreement between the simulated and observed present-day climate; to regain optimal climate fidelity in the absence of those truncation errors, the model would require retuning. A coarse-grained attribution of the time step sensitivities is carried out by shortening time steps used in various components of EAM or by revising the numerical coupling between some processes. Our analysis leads to the finding that the marked decreases in the subtropical low-cloud fraction and total cloud radiative effect are caused not by the step size used for the collectively subcycled turbulence, shallow convection, and stratiform cloud macrophysics and microphysics parameterizations but rather by the step sizes used outside those subcycles. Further analysis suggests that the coupling frequency between the subcycles and the rest of EAM significantly affects the subtropical marine stratocumulus decks, while deep convection has significant impacts on trade cumulus. The step size of the cloud macrophysics and microphysics subcycle itself appears to have a primary impact on cloud fraction in the upper troposphere and also in the midlatitude near-surface layers. Impacts of step sizes used by the dynamical core and the radiation parameterization appear to be relatively small. These results provide useful clues for future studies aiming at understanding and addressing the root causes of sensitivities to time step sizes and process coupling frequencies in EAM. While this study focuses on EAMv1 and the conclusions are likely model-specific, the presented experimentation strategy has general value for weather and climate model development, as the methodology can help researchers identify and understand sources of time integration error in sophisticated multi-component models.

A Large‐Scale Analysis of Pockets of Open Cells and Their Radiative Impact

AbstractPockets of open cells sometimes form within closed‐cell stratocumulus cloud decks but little is known about their statistical properties or prevalence. A convolutional neural network was used to detect occurrences of pockets of open cells (POCs). Trained on a small hand‐logged data set and applied to 13 years of satellite imagery the neural network is able to classify 8,491 POCs. This extensive database allows the first robust analysis of the spatial and temporal prevalence of these phenomena, as well as a detailed analysis of their micro‐physical properties. We find a large (30%) increase in cloud effective radius inside POCs as compared to their surroundings and similarly large (20%) decrease in cloud fraction. This also allows their global radiative effect to be determined. Using simple radiative approximations we find that the instantaneous global annual mean top‐of‐atmosphere perturbation by all POCs is only 0.01 W/m2.

Evaluating models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations

Abstract. Recent studies have shown that, in response to a surface warming, the marine tropical low-cloud cover (LCC) as observed by passive-sensor satellites substantially decreases, therefore generating a smaller negative value of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effect (CRE). Here we study the LCC and CRE interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in the GISS model E2 climate model, a developmental version of the GISS model E3 climate model, and in 12 other climate models, as a function of their ability to represent the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) observations. The more realistic models (those that satisfy the observational constraint) capture the observed interannual LCC change quite well (ΔLCC/ΔSST=-3.49±1.01 % K−1 vs. ΔLCC/ΔSSTobs=-3.59±0.28 % K−1) while the others largely underestimate it (ΔLCC/ΔSST=-1.32±1.28 % K−1). Consequently, the more realistic models simulate more positive shortwave (SW) feedback (ΔCRE/ΔSST=2.60±1.13 W m−2 K−1) than the less realistic models (ΔCRE/ΔSST=0.87±2.63 W m−2 K−1), in better agreement with the observations (ΔCRE/ΔSSTobs=3±0.26 W m−2 K−1), although slightly underestimated. The ability of the models to represent moist processes within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and produce persistent stratocumulus (Sc) decks appears crucial to replicating the observed relationship between clouds, radiation and surface temperature. This relationship is different depending on the type of low clouds in the observations. Over stratocumulus regions, cloud-top height increases slightly with SST, accompanied by a large decrease in cloud fraction, whereas over trade cumulus (Cu) regions, cloud fraction decreases everywhere, to a smaller extent.

Modeling Water Vapor and Clouds as Passive Tracers in an Idealized GCM

This paper introduces an idealized general circulation model (GCM) in which water vapor and clouds are tracked as tracers, but are not allowed to affect circulation through either latent heat release or cloud radiative effects. The cloud scheme includes an explicit treatment of cloud microphysics and diagnoses cloud fraction from a prescribed subgrid distribution of total water. The model is capable of qualitatively capturing many large-scale features of water vapor and cloud distributions outside of the boundary layer and deep tropics. The subtropical dry zones, midlatitude storm tracks, and upper-tropospheric cirrus are simulated reasonably well. The inclusion of cloud microphysics (namely rain re-evaporation) has a modest but significant effect of moistening the lower troposphere in this model. When being subjected to a uniform fractional increase of saturated water vapor pressure, the model produces little change in cloud fraction. A more realistic perturbation, which considers the nonlinearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relation and spatial structure of CO2-induced warming, results in a substantial reduction in the free-tropospheric cloud fraction. This is reconciled with an increase of relative humidity by analyzing the probability distributions of both quantities, and may help explain partly similar decreases in cloud fraction in full GCMs. The model provides a means to isolate individual processes or model components for studying their influences on cloud simulation in the extratropical free troposphere.

Vertical grid spacing necessary for simulating tropical cirrus clouds with a high‐resolution atmospheric general circulation model

AbstractThe distribution of simulated cirrus clouds over the tropics is affected by the particular model's vertical grid spacing. To examine this effect, we use a high‐resolution atmospheric general circulation model with 28 km and 14 km horizontal meshes. We show that a vertical grid spacing of 400 m or less is necessary to resolve the bulk structure of cirrus clouds. As one reduces the vertical grid spacing below about 1000 m, the visible cirrus cloud fraction decreases, the cloud thins (optically and geometrically), the cloud top height lowers, and consequently, the outgoing longwave radiation increases. These effects are stronger over the tropics. When using a vertical grid spacing of 400 m or less, the vertical profiles of effective radii and ice water content converge toward measurements (CloudSat satellite and Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation).

Aquaplanet Experiments Using CAM’s Variable-Resolution Dynamical Core

Abstract A variable-resolution option has been added within the spectral element (SE) dynamical core of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)–NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). CAM-SE allows for static refinement via conforming quadrilateral meshes on the cubed sphere. This paper investigates the effect of mesh refinement in a climate model by running variable-resolution (var-res) simulations on an aquaplanet. The variable-resolution grid is a 2° (~222 km) grid with a refined patch of 0.25° (~28 km) resolution centered at the equator. Climatology statistics from these simulations are compared to globally uniform runs of 2° and 0.25°. A significant resolution dependence exists when using the CAM version 4 (CAM4) subgrid physical parameterization package across scales. Global cloud fraction decreases and equatorial precipitation increases with finer horizontal resolution, resulting in drastically different climates between the uniform grid runs and a physics-induced grid imprinting in the var-res simulation. Using CAM version 5 (CAM5) physics significantly improves cloud scaling at different grid resolutions. Additional precipitation at the equator in the high-resolution mesh results in collocated zonally anomalous divergence in both var-res simulations, although this feature is much weaker in CAM5 than CAM4. The equilibrium solution at each grid spacing within the var-res simulations captures the majority of the resolution signal of the corresponding globally uniform grids. The var-res simulation exhibits good performance with respect to wave propagation, including equatorial regions where waves pass through grid transitions. In addition, the increased frequency of high-precipitation events in the refined 0.25° area within the var-res simulations matches that observed in the global 0.25° simulations.

Modeling the influences of aerosols on pre-monsoon circulation and rainfall over Southeast Asia

Abstract. We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February–May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol–convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

The diurnal temperature range in the CMIP5 models

This paper analyzes the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over land in simulations of the recent past and in future projections by 20 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The annually averaged DTR is evaluated for the present-day climate using two gridded datasets (HadGHCND and CRU). The DTR varies substantially between different CMIP5 models, particularly in the subtropics, and is generally underestimated. In future projections of the high emission scenario RCP8.5, the models disagree on both the sign and the magnitude of the change in DTR. Still, a majority of the models project a globally averaged reduction in the DTR, with an increase over Europe, a decrease over the Sahara desert and a substantial decrease in DTR at high latitudes in winter. The general DTR reduction is partly linked to the enhancement of the downwelling clear sky longwave radiation due to greenhouse gases. At high latitudes in winter, the decrease in DTR seems to be enforced by an increase in cloudiness, but in most other regions counteracted by decreases in cloud fraction. Changes in the hydrological cycle and in the clear sky shortwave radiation also impact the DTR. The DTR integrates many processes and neither the model differences in the DTR nor in the change in DTR can be attributed to a single parameter. Which variables that impact the model discrepancies vary both regionally and seasonally. However, clouds seem to matter in most regions and seasons and the evaporative fraction is important in summer.

Mesoscale modeling of smoke transport over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent: coupling of smoke direct radiative effect below and above the low-level clouds

Abstract. The online-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to simulate the direct and semi-direct radiative impacts of smoke particles over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent (MC, 10° S–10° N, 90–150° E) during October 2006 when a significant El Niño event caused the highest biomass burning activity since 1997. With the use of an OC (organic carbon) / BC (black carbon) ratio of 10 in the smoke emission inventory, the baseline simulation shows that the clouds can reverse the negative smoke forcing in cloud-free conditions to a positive value. The net absorption of the atmosphere is largely enhanced when smoke resides above a cloud. This led to a warming effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) with a domain and monthly average forcing value of ~ 20 W m−2 over the islands of Borneo and Sumatra. Smoke-induced monthly average daytime heating (0.3 K) is largely confined above the low-level clouds, and results in a local convergence over the smoke source region. This heating-induced convergence transports more smoke particles above the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), hence rendering a positive effect. This positive effect contrasts with a decrease in the cloud fraction resulting from the combined effects of smoke heating within the cloud layer and the more stable boundary layer; the latter can be considered as a negative effect in which a decrease of the cloud fraction weakens the heating by smoke particles above the clouds. During the nighttime, the elevated smoke layer lying above the clouds in the daytime is decoupled from the boundary layer, and the enhanced downdraft and shallower boundary layer lead to the accumulation of smoke particles near the surface. Because of monthly smoke radiative extinction, the amount of solar input at the surface is reduced by as much as 60 W m−2, which leads to a decrease in sensible heat, latent heat, 2 m air temperature, and PBLH by a maximum of 20 W m−2, 20 W m−2, 1 K, and 120 m, respectively. During daytime, the cloud changes over continents mostly occur over the islands of Sumatra and Borneo where the low-level cloud fraction decreases more than 10%. However, the change of local wind, including sea breeze, induced by the smoke direct radiative effect leads to more convergence over the Karimata Strait and the south coastal area of Kalimantan during both daytime and nighttime; consequently, the cloud fraction there is increased up to 20%. The sensitivities with different OC / BC ratios show the importance of the smoke single-scattering albedo for the smoke semi-direct effects. Lastly, a conceptual model is used to summarize the responses of clouds, smoke, temperature, and water vapor fields to the coupling of smoke direct effect below and above clouds over the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent.

Aerosol-Cloud-Interaction Variability Induced by Atmospheric Brown Clouds during the 2009 Indian Summer Monsoon Drought

Contrasting monsoons of 2008 and 2009 provided a test bed to enhance the understanding of the aerosol variability and aerosol-cloud interaction. Vertical aerosol profiles derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) are used to delineate the aerosol properties during the two contrasting Indian summer monsoons. We observed a 30–40% increase in the aerosol occurrence frequency (AOF) in lower altitudes (below 6 km) in 2009 and a 5–8% enhancement in AOF at higher altitudes in 2008. The cloud occurrence frequency also showed more deep convective clouds in 2008 (13–15%) than in 2009. Cloud Fraction, Aerosol Optical Depth and TRMM precipitation data sets have been also used to investigate the aerosol-cloud interaction. We define the microphysical effect as the increase in cloud fraction with increase in aerosols (CCN) and the radiative effect as the decrease of cloud fraction with increase in aerosol loading. We observe a stronger microphysical effect than the radiative effect in 2008 as compared to 2009. In 2009, atmospheric brown clouds were observed from March to September, which slowed down the microphysical effect and enhanced the radiative effect. This resulted in a 30% reduction in the total cloud fraction that may have reduced precipitation, and invigorated the drought conditions during 2009.