Precipitous Decline Research Articles

Trends of Climate Extremes and Their Relationships with Tropical Ocean Temperatures in South America

South America has experienced significant changes in climate patterns over recent decades, particularly in terms of precipitation and temperature extremes. This study analyzes trends in climate extremes from 1979 to 2020 across South America, focusing on their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The analysis uses precipitation and temperature indices, such as the number of heavy rainfall days (R10mm, R20mm, R30mm), total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), hottest day (TXx), and heatwave duration (WSDI), to assess changes over time. The results show a widespread decline in total annual precipitation across the continent, although some regions, particularly in the northeast and southeast, experienced an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Extreme temperatures have also risen consistently across South America, with an increase in both the frequency and duration of heat extremes, indicating an ongoing warming trend. The study also highlights the significant role of SST anomalies in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in driving these climate extremes. Strong correlations were found between Pacific SST anomalies (Niño 3.4 region) and extreme precipitation events in the northern and southern regions of South America. Similarly, Atlantic SST anomalies, especially in the Northern Atlantic (TNA), exhibited notable impacts on temperature extremes, particularly heatwaves. These findings underscore the complex interactions between SST anomalies and climate variability in South America, providing crucial insights into the dynamics of climate extremes in the region. Understanding these relationships is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes.

Recovering psychological trauma in coal mining communities

ABSTRACT To date, there has been little research on the history of work-related mental health issues among coal workers. Much of the coal extraction industry peaked during the early twentieth century and then began its precipitous decline. Mining has high casualty rates, and the medical field did not understand the long-term effects of psychological trauma on mine workers until recently. Newspaper articles and other historical records provide accounts of accidents and tragedies. Heroism is often emphasized in recalling tragic episodes at the expense of recording the emotional stress suffered by survivors. A diverse set of historical sources provides a context for work-related mental health issues in the coal extraction industry. Probing a set of historic oral histories of coal workers and creating analogies to current studies provide additional clues about the under-told story of these historic actors’ general health and well-being. While incorporating oral histories from other regions, focusing on the anthracite coal industry in northeastern Pennsylvania allows us to identify historical actors and helps us think differently about other working-class communities impacted by industrial capitalism.

Changing Rainfall Patterns in the Northeastern South Kivu Region, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Detailed Analysis Using CHIRPS Rainfall Data (1981–2023)

AbstractUnderstanding changes in rainfall patterns is vital for effective water resource management and agricultural planning in climate-sensitive regions. In Northeastern South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, limited knowledge of rainfall dynamics poses challenges for local climate assessments. This study analyzed rainfall patterns using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset from 1981 to 2023 to fill this knowledge gap. The findings revealed significant spatial and temporal changes in rainfall across the regions of Kabare, Bukavu, Kalehe, and Idjwi. Mean annual rainfall ranged from 1136.92 mm to 2048.85 mm, with coefficients of variation between 8.23% and 8.45%. Monthly rainfall fluctuations were substantial, ranging from 16 to 56.35%. Standardized rainfall anomalies indicated a shift from predominantly wet conditions in the 1980s to drier conditions in later decades, with over half the years from 1990 to 2023 recording below-average rainfall. Mann-Kendall trend analysis, supported by Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), confirmed significant decreases in annual rainfall, with rates between − 3.53 to -5.72 mm/year. Additionally, rainfall intensity indices highlighted a decline in total annual precipitation, suggested fewer extreme events. Spatial variability was observed, with regions like Kalehe and Bukavu showed higher values for indices such as R95P and RX1day compared to Kabare and Idjwi. These results underscored the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate water scarcity and manage changing rainfall patterns in the region.

Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature in the Kharun Watershed: Implications for Climate and Water Management

Rainfall and temperature are critical meteorological variables for understanding climate change and its potential impacts on water resources. Rainfall and Temperature are the most important for climatic parameters. The result of this study will help to take necessary steps and measures for agricultural production. This study focuses on analyzing rainfall and temperature trends in the Kharun watershed, Chhattisgarh, using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope (SS) estimator. The analysis covers seasonal (summer, winter, and monsoon) and annual trends across key stations. Results for precipitation trends reveal mixed outcomes. At Dhamtari, a significant increasing trend in summer rainfall (z = 3.21, p < 0.01, Sen's slope = 0.77) was observed, though the annual trend remains insignificant. In Patharidih, summer rainfall also shows a significant upward trend (z = 2.04, p = 0.04), while Raipur exhibits a significant decline in both annual and summer precipitation (z = -1.04, p = 0.03, Sen's slope = -0.27). Temperature trends indicate no significant changes in maximum temperature across most stations, though slight positive trends are observed in summer and monsoon seasons. However, minimum temperature trends show a significant decline during winter at Dhamtari and Raipur (z = -2.12, Sen's slope = -0.04). These findings highlight localized seasonal variability in rainfall and temperature, underlining potential challenges for water resource management and climate adaptation in the region.

Precipitation variability and environmental change across late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles in lowland Central America: Insights from Lake Petén Itzá (Guatemala) sediments

Lowland Central America, a biodiversity hotspot in the northern Neotropics, is a region where the climate is influenced by the location and expansion-contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on seasonal to millennial timescales. Paleo-records from the Caribbean Sea and the eastern equatorial and subtropical Pacific Ocean illustrate the response of regional precipitation to fluctuations in global temperature, driven by glacial-interglacial cyclicity over the past 500 kyr. Here, we present a paleoclimate and paleoenvironment record from Lake Petén Itzá, lowland Guatemala, which spans the last ∼413 kyr. Sediment in the lake recorded lacustrine and terrestrial ecosystem responses to large-scale climate variability. Precipitation patterns during MIS11-9 (∼413-304 ka BP) align with the latitudinal position of the ITCZ, with superimposed effects from the strength of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). A sediment hiatus, likely attributable to mass removal processes in the lake's shallower areas, spans the period from MIS8 (starting at 304 ka BP) to the end of MIS6 (at 149 ka BP). MIS6 was characterized by humid conditions, perhaps ascribable to a more southerly extension of cold fronts and intensification of the CLLJ. During MIS5, pronounced fluctuations among all sediment variables, accompanied by an abrupt decline in precipitation, may correspond with cold events inferred from North Atlantic Ocean sediment cores. Although discontinuous, the Lake Petén Itzá sediment record provides a window into late Quaternary climate and environmental change in lowland Central America.

The Establishment of Economic Dirigism In Maritime Trade of Turkey, 1923–1950

ABSTRACT In the aftermath of the establishment of the republican regime in Turkey in 1923, the policy of economic dirigisme began to dominate the markets step by step. This article aims to analyse the effects of economic dirigisme on maritime trade for a quarter of a century and furnishes an illustrative case delineating how the government’s favoured economic policy attenuated the developmental prospects of maritime commerce. Throughout this temporal span, endeavours advocating a laissez-faire market policy found themselves systematically marginalized, as the juggernaut of economic dirigisme unfolded. The corollary of this policy was a precipitous decline in the operational efficiency of maritime trade. The proclivity for deploying antiquated ships escalated the inherent risks of maritime accidents. Legislative initiatives, exemplified by the promulgation of cabotage laws and the imposition of onerous taxes, erected formidable impediments that curtailed the operability of foreign-flagged vessels in Turkish ports. Concurrently, the waning trade potential cast a pall over the developmental trajectory of Anatolian cities.

Climate feedback from plant physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 in Earth system models.

Plant physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (iCO2), including enhanced photosynthesis and reduced stomatal conductance, impact regional and global climate. Here, I describe recent advances in understanding these effects through Earth system models (ESMs). Idealized simulations of a 1% annual iCO2 show that despite fertilization, CO2 physiological forcing contributes to 10% of warming and at least 30% of future precipitation decline in Amazonia. This reduces aboveground vegetation carbon storage and triggers positive carbon-climate feedback. ESM simulations indicate that reduced transpiration and increased heat stress from iCO2 could amplify meteorological drought and wildfire risks. Understanding these climate feedbacks is essential for improving carbon accounting in natural climate solutions, such as avoiding deforestation and reforestation, as iCO2 complicates assessing their climate benefits.

How Climate Change Will Shape Pesticide Application in Quebec’s Golf Courses: Insights with Deep Learning Based on Assessing CMIP5 and CMIP6

The accelerating impact of climate change on golf course conditions has led to a significant increase in pesticide dependency, underscoring the importance of innovative management strategies. The shift from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the latest CMIP6 phase has drawn the attention of professionals, including engineers, decision makers, and golf course managers. This study evaluates how climate projections from CMIP6, using Canadian Earth System Models (CanESM2 and CanESM5), impact pesticide application trends on Quebec’s golf courses. Through the comparison of temperature and precipitation projections, it was found that a more substantial decline in precipitation is exhibited by CanESM2 compared to CanESM5, while the latter projects higher temperature increases. A comparison between historical and projected pesticide use revealed that, in most scenarios and projected periods, the projected pesticide use was substantially higher, surpassing past usage levels. Additionally, in comparing the two climate change models, CanESM2 consistently projected higher pesticide use across various scenarios and projected periods, except for RCP2.6, which was 27% lower than SSP1-2.6 in the second projected period (PP2). For all commonly used pesticides, the projected usage levels in every projected period, according to climate change models, surpass historical levels. When comparing the two climate models, CanESM5 consistently forecasted greater pesticide use for fungicides, with a difference ranging from 65% to 222%, and for herbicides, with a difference ranging from 114% to 247%, across all projected periods. In contrast, insecticides, growth regulators, and rodenticides displayed higher AAIR values in CanESM2 during PP1 and PP3, showing a difference of 28% to 35.6%. However, CanESM5 again projected higher values in PP2, with a difference of 1.5% to 14%.

Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in the Al-Badan Sub-Catchment, Palestine: Analyzing Historical Data and Future Scenarios

Climate change is significantly impacting water resources, especially in arid regions. This study evaluates its effects on groundwater in the Al-Badan sub-catchment, Palestine, by analyzing hydroclimatic data from 1990 to 2020 and the future predicted climate change scenarios. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, a significant annual decline in annual precipitation of 125 mm and a temperature increase of 1.84 °C were observed, resulting in a spring discharge reduction of 1.2 MCM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that a 10% increase in precipitation correlates with a 5% discharge increase, while a 1 °C rise in temperature results in a 2.3% discharge decrease. Future scenarios indicate significant changes: for 2040–2060, RCP2.6 forecasts average precipitation of 334.5 mm with temperatures at 18.5 °C, resulting in spring discharge of about 4.6 MCM. In contrast, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict reductions in precipitation to 307.2 mm and 311.2 mm, respectively, with temperatures rising to 18.9 °C and 19.3 °C, leading to discharge declines to 4.2 MCM and 4.0 MCM. For 2080–2100, RCP2.6 anticipates 335.8 mm of precipitation and temperatures rising to 19.5 °C, resulting in average discharge of 4.5 MCM. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict further declines in precipitation and discharge, underscoring the need for effective water management strategies.

The contribution of Arabian Sea warming to decreasing summer precipitation in the northern Greater Mekong Subregion

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is one of the world's most important agricultural regions. Over recent decades, the declining trend in precipitation has caused more frequent droughts over the northern plateau of the GMS, and this has led to a significant reduction in agricultural productivity. These drought events can also affect agriculture within the middle and lower parts of the Mekong River basin. To reveal the main causes of the decline in precipitation, this study investigates interdecadal variations in summer precipitation over the northern GMS during 1979–2022. Results indicate that summer conditions over the northern GMS entered a relatively dry period after the late 1990s. The interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation is closely associated with the warming of the northern Arabian Sea (AS), which induces a cyclonic anomaly that enhances local precipitation and associated diabatic heating. The anomalous diabatic heating induces a downstream Rossby wave train that intensifies the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern and causes the South Asian high (SAH) to extend farther southeastwards. The southeastward-displaced SAH induces easterly anomalies over the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) that weaken the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) southwesterly flows and reduce moisture transport from the northern BOB to the northern GMS. The southeastward displacement of the SAH also causes anomalous descent over the northern GMS. Both conditions result in reduced precipitation over the northern GMS. Numerical experiments substantiate the proposed modulating role of AS warming in the interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation over the northern GMS.

Future Projection of Water Resources of Ruzizi River Basin: What Are the Challenges for Management Strategy?

This study investigates the impact of climate change on hydrological dynamics in the Ruzizi River Basin (RRB) by leveraging a combination of observational historical data and downscaled climate model outputs. The primary objective is to evaluate changes in precipitation, temperature, and water balance components under different climate scenarios. We employed a multi-modal ensemble (MME) approach to enhance the accuracy of climate projections, integrating historical climate data spanning from 1950 to 2014 with downscaled projections for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, covering future periods from 2040 to 2100. Our methodology involved calibrating and validating the SWAT model against observed hydrological data to ensure reliable simulations of future climate scenarios. The model’s performance was assessed using metrics such as R2, NSE, KGE, and PBIAS, which closely aligned with recommended standards. Results reveal a significant decline in mean annual precipitation, with reductions of up to 37.86% by mid-century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This decline is projected to lead to substantial reductions in surface runoff, evapotranspiration, and water yield, alongside a marked decrease in mean monthly stream flow, critically impacting agricultural, domestic, and ecological water needs. The study underscores the necessity of adaptive water resource management strategies to address these anticipated changes. Key recommendations include implementing a dynamic reservoir operation system, enhancing forecasting tools, and incorporating green infrastructure to maintain water quality, support ecosystem resilience, and ensure sustainable water use in the RRB. This research emphasizes the need for localized strategies to address climate-driven hydrological changes and protect future water resources.

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

AbstractThe East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

Understanding tropical cyclone persistence over land: A case study of Cyclone Gulab

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Gulab originated in the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon season of 2021. Following an unusual westward trajectory, TC Gulab made landfall on the east coast of India, traversed central India, and reintensified over the Arabian Sea into TC Shaheen. This study employed an online Eulerian water vapor tracer (WVT) tool embedded within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the role of land in terms of soil moisture and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) in persistance of TC Gulab over central India. We quantified the contributions of sub-regions and dominant LULC types within the Indian subcontinent to the precipitation associated with TC Gulab. Our findings indicate that evapotranspiration across the entire Indian subcontinent contributed approximately 30% to the post-landfall precipitation associated with TC Gulab. The highest contribution originated from the northwestern region, followed by the northeast. Croplands, the dominant LULC type, were the primary contributors, followed by forests. Despite changing the dominant land cover from cropland to forest, the low-pressure system persisted over land while altering the spatial patterns of precipitation. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated a linear decrease in precipitation originating from land with decreasing soil moisture (SM). Notably, there is a disproportionate decline in total precipitation with decreasing SM. Further analysis separating atmospheric vapor sources into land and ocean contributions using WVT revealed a compensatory mechanism. The contribution of oceanic vapor to atmospheric vapor over land increased when SM decreased due to increase in the latent heat over ocean. However, the total atmospheric vapor remained low, ultimately leading to a lower total precipitation. Although SM plays a role, our results highlight the importance of oceanic and atmospheric processes in determining TC persistence over land. This study offers valuable insights into the dynamics of land-atmosphere interactions during low-pressure systems of TCs.

Pathophysiology and Treatment of Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Youth.

Youth-onset type 2 diabetes is a heterogeneous disease with increasing prevalence in relation to increased rates of obesity in children. It has genetic, epigenetic, social, and environmental determinants. Youth-onset type 2 diabetes is alarming given a rapidly progressive course compared with the course of adult-onset disease, early-onset vascular complications, and long-term exposure to hyperglycemia and associated complications. It is often preceded by "prediabetes," a disease phase where defects in β-cell function relative to insulin sensitivity emerge. Herein, we review the current understanding of the pathophysiology of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in youth. We describe the mechanisms underlying insulin resistance, the precipitous decline of β-cell function, and the role of other hormonal abnormalities in the pathogenesis of the disease. We discuss the critical importance of social determinants of health in the predisposition and progression of these conditions and present current management strategies and the advances in therapeutic approaches. These must adapt to meet the unique needs of the individual patient and family. Significant knowledge gaps remain that need to be addressed in future research.

Kpop: a kernel balancing approach for reducing specification assumptions in survey weighting

Abstract With the precipitous decline in response rates, researchers and pollsters have been left with highly nonrepresentative samples, relying on constructed weights to make these samples representative of the desired target population. Though practitioners employ valuable expert knowledge to choose what variables X must be adjusted for, they rarely defend particular functional forms relating these variables to the response process or the outcome. Unfortunately, commonly used calibration weights—which make the weighted mean of X in the sample equal that of the population—only ensure correct adjustment when the portion of the outcome and the response process left unexplained by linear functions of X are independent. To alleviate this functional form dependency, we describe kernel balancing for population weighting (kpop). This approach replaces the design matrix X with a kernel matrix, K encoding high-order information about X. Weights are then found to make the weighted average row of K among sampled units approximately equal to that of the target population. This produces good calibration on a wide range of smooth functions of X, without relying on the user to decide which X or what functions of them to include. We describe the method and illustrate it by application to polling data from the 2016 US presidential election.

Neurovascular mechanisms of cognitive aging: Sex-related differences in the average progression of arteriosclerosis, white matter atrophy, and cognitive decline

Arterial stiffness (arteriosclerosis) has been linked to heightened risks for cognitive decline, and ultimately for Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia. Importantly, neurovascular outcomes generally vary according to one's biological sex. Here, capitalizing on a large sample of participants with neuroimaging and behavioral data (N = 203, age range = 18–87 years), we aimed to provide support for a hierarchical model of neurocognitive aging, which links age-related declines in cerebrovascular health to the rate of cognitive decline via a series of intervening variables, such as white matter integrity. By applying a novel piecewise regression approach to our cross-sectional sample to support Granger-like temporal inferences, we show that, on average, a precipitous decline in cerebral arterial elasticity (measured with diffuse optical imaging of the cerebral arterial pulse; pulse-DOT) precedes an acceleration in the development of white matter lesions by nearly a decade, with women protected from these deleterious effects until approximately age 50, the average onset of menopause. By employing multiple-mediator path analyses while controlling for sex, we show that age may impair cognition via the sequential indirect effects of arteriosclerosis and white matter atrophy on fluid, but not crystallized, abilities. Importantly, we replicate these results using pulse pressure, an independent index of arterial health, thereby providing converging evidence for the central role of arteriosclerosis as an accelerating factor in normal and pathological aging and identifying robust sex-related differences in the progression of cerebral arteriosclerosis and white matter degradation.

Characterization of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Cohort With Photophobia From the Defense and Veterans Eye Injury and Vision Registry.

Photophobia is a common visual symptom following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), which can adversely affect the military readiness and performance of service members (SMs). We employed the Defense and Veterans Eye Injury and Vision Registry (DVEIVR) to identify and describe a cohort of SMs diagnosed with photophobia post-mTBI. The objective of this study was to characterize comorbid conditions and symptoms in an mTBI cohort with photophobia, to assess their co-occurrence, to describe the persistence of photophobia, and to assess the effectiveness of utilization of currently available International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD) codes in reporting photophobia in this cohort. The DVEIVR database was searched to identify a cohort of SMs experiencing photophobia after mTBI. Photophobia and other potentially related conditions and symptoms, both coded and descriptive, which were abstracted directly from the medical records of SMs, were found within DVEIVR. The presence of the conditions and symptoms comorbid with photophobia was characterized on both patient and encounter levels. Analysis of co-occurrence of photophobia with these conditions or symptoms was performed on the encounter level using co-occur package in the statistical program R. Persistence of photophobia up to 1 year since the injury was assessed. The utilization of currently available ICD codes for photophobia was analyzed. A total of 639 SMs exhibiting photophobia after mTBI were identified in DVEIVR. Headaches, including migraines, were the most frequently experienced comorbidity affecting 92% of the SMs in the cohort. The second most frequent complaint was dizziness and/or vertigo (53%) followed by nausea (42%), blurry vision (31%), and irritation and discomfort in the eye (17%). In all, 20% of encounters with photophobia had a complaint of headaches, followed by 8.3% of photophobia encounters co-occurring with dizziness and vertigo, 5.7%-with nausea, 4.5%-with blurred vision, and 2.1%-with subjective sensations in the eye. All comorbidities co-occurred with photophobia at probabilities higher than by chance alone. The percentage of mTBI SMs experiencing photophobia declined to 20% at 30 days after the injury, 17% at 3 months, 12% at 6 months, and 7% at 12 months post-injury, respectively. The use of currently available ICD codes for photophobia was very low-only 27.1% of the cohort had at least 1 ICD code recorded in their medical records. The results of this study support the idea that there is a strong relationship between photophobia and headache after an mTBI. Additional research is warranted to better understand this relationship and its causes so that clinical management improves. The results of this study show a precipitous decline in the numbers of cases of photophobia after mTBI over the first 30 days and a longer-term persistence up to a year in a minority of cases, which is consistent with other research in this field. Various ICD codes, which are currently used to code for photophobia, along with other vision conditions, were not widely used to document photophobia symptoms. It is important to adopt a dedicated ICD code for photophobia to improve the surveillance, data collection, and analysis of this condition.

A benefit-risk analysis for biological control introductions based on the protection of native biodiversity.

The release of biological control agents has been an important means of controlling invasive species for over 150 years. While these releases have led to the sustainable control of over 250 invasive pest and weed species worldwide, a minority have caused environmental harm. A growing recognition of the risks of biological control led to a focus on risk assessment beginning in the 1990s along with a precipitous decline in releases. While this new focus greatly improved the safety of biological control, it came at the cost of lost opportunities to solve environmental problems associated with invasive species. A framework that incorporates benefits and risks of biological control is thus needed to understand the net environmental effects of biological control releases. We introduce such a framework, using native biodiversity as the common currency for both benefits and risks. The model is based on interactions among four categories of organisms: (1) the biological control agent, (2) the invasive species (pest or weed) targeted by the agent, (3) one or more native species that stand to benefit from the control of the target species, and (4) one or more native species that are at risk of being harmed by the released biological control agent. Conservation values of the potentially benefited and harmed native species are incorporated as well, and they are weighted according to three axes: vulnerability to extinction, the ecosystem services provided, and cultural significance. Further, we incorporate the potential for indirect risks to native species, which we consider will result mainly from the ecological process of agent enrichment that may occur if the agent exploits but does not control the target pest or weed. We illustrate the use of this framework by retrospectively analyzing the release of the vedalia beetle, Novius (= Rodolia) cardinalis, to control the cottony cushion scale, Icerya purchasi, in the Galapagos Islands. While the framework is particularly adaptable to biological control releases in natural areas, it can also be used in managed settings, where biological control protects native species through the reduction of pesticide use.

Projecting Climate Change Impact on Precipitation Patterns during Different Growth Stages of Rainfed Wheat Crop in the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan

In rainfed areas, precipitation variations directly impact wheat growth stages such as emergence, tillering, jointing and booting, and maturity. Evaluating the impact of climate change on precipitation patterns during these critical growth stages is crucial for adapting climate change and ensuring global food security. In this study, projections of five General Circulation models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were used to predict the changing characteristics of precipitation during four main growth stages of wheat in the rainfed region of the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan. Historical datasets of daily precipitation at six weather stations were analyzed to check the past changes in the precipitation patterns. During the baseline period (1985–2014), the annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of −9.75 mm/decade, while the amount of precipitation during the rabi season (wheat-growing season) decreased at a rate of −20.47 mm/decade. An increase in the precipitation was found during the fourth (flowering) stage of crop growth, while the first three stages experienced a decrease in the precipitation amount. The multimodal ensembled data, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, revealed a significant decline (at the rate of −16.63 mm/decade) in the future annual precipitation. However, it is projected that, under SSP2-4.5, there may be a slight increase (4.03 mm/decade) in the total precipitation amount during the future rabi season. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, average annual precipitation exhibited a slightly increasing trend, increasing by 1.0 mm/decade. However, during the rabi season, there was a possibility of a decrease in precipitation amount, with a rate of 11.64 mm/decade. It is also expected that the precipitation amount may vary significantly during the crown root initiation, jointing and booting, and flowering stages in the near future. These results provide a framework for the planning of wheat production in the Pothwar region of Pakistan, taking into account the potential impact of shifting weather patterns, particularly in terms of uneven precipitation.

Assessment of climate change on river streamflow under different representative concentration pathways

Climate change and excessive greenhouse gas emissions profoundly impact hydrological cycles, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating assessments of their effects on water resource management, agriculture, soil fertility, nutrient transport, hydropower generation, and flood risk. This study investigates climate change repercussions on streamflow in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran, across three decadal intervals (2020–2029, 2055–2064, and 2090–2099) aiming to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs), chosen based on distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) determined by the annual mean temperature gradient, are employed. These models generate daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures along with precipitation data. Subsequently, these variables are integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze river flow alterations for each decadal timeframe. Comparison between future projections and observed climate data reveals a gradual decline in precipitation and Tmax, coupled with a substantial increase in Tmin. The average precipitation diminishes from 0.77 mm in the period 1985–1994 to a range of 0.42–0.28 mm in 2090–2099. The simulated flow at the basin outlet highlights that the GCM with the highest annual mean temperature gradient yields the lowest streamflow, while conversely, the model with the lowest gradient generates the highest. Consequently, streamflow experiences a decline from 52 m3/s in 1985–1994 to a range of 41–20 m3/s in 2090–2099.