How Climate Change Will Shape Pesticide Application in Quebec’s Golf Courses: Insights with Deep Learning Based on Assessing CMIP5 and CMIP6

Abstract

The accelerating impact of climate change on golf course conditions has led to a significant increase in pesticide dependency, underscoring the importance of innovative management strategies. The shift from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to the latest CMIP6 phase has drawn the attention of professionals, including engineers, decision makers, and golf course managers. This study evaluates how climate projections from CMIP6, using Canadian Earth System Models (CanESM2 and CanESM5), impact pesticide application trends on Quebec’s golf courses. Through the comparison of temperature and precipitation projections, it was found that a more substantial decline in precipitation is exhibited by CanESM2 compared to CanESM5, while the latter projects higher temperature increases. A comparison between historical and projected pesticide use revealed that, in most scenarios and projected periods, the projected pesticide use was substantially higher, surpassing past usage levels. Additionally, in comparing the two climate change models, CanESM2 consistently projected higher pesticide use across various scenarios and projected periods, except for RCP2.6, which was 27% lower than SSP1-2.6 in the second projected period (PP2). For all commonly used pesticides, the projected usage levels in every projected period, according to climate change models, surpass historical levels. When comparing the two climate models, CanESM5 consistently forecasted greater pesticide use for fungicides, with a difference ranging from 65% to 222%, and for herbicides, with a difference ranging from 114% to 247%, across all projected periods. In contrast, insecticides, growth regulators, and rodenticides displayed higher AAIR values in CanESM2 during PP1 and PP3, showing a difference of 28% to 35.6%. However, CanESM5 again projected higher values in PP2, with a difference of 1.5% to 14%.