Decline In Oil Prices Research Articles

Тенденции развития флота морских технологических платформ в период 2015–2021 гг.

Object and purpose of research. This paper discusses marine oil and gas production platforms splitted into four types depending on their purpose. The study was intended to analyse the changes in global production platform fleet and outline the main trends in its development. Materials and methods. The study was based on the open-access data available with offshore field developers, oil and gas companies, shipyards and design offices. The methods in this study were acquisition, analysis and comparison of the data about the fleet of marine oil and gas production platforms. Main results. The paper presents the results of fleet composition analysis for floating oil and gas production platforms over the period of 2015–2021 characterized by the decline in global oil and gas prices. The study shows that the most common type of marine production platforms is FPSO (213 vessels). The strength of FPU and FPDSO fleets remains the same: 99 and 2 vessels respectively. Their geography has not changed either. The fleet of FLNGs has increased up to 7 ships since the commissioning of first FLNGs in 2014. Conclusion. FPSO platforms of various designs (mostly ship-type) offer high mobility and operational flexibility, i.e. greater project revenues and zero pipeline construction costs in case of remote field developments. It must be noted that water depths at FPSO locations have reached their record highs: 2900 m for production platforms and 3400 m for drilling ones. In future, floating platforms could be replaced by subsea production system but their massive introduction cannot be expected in at least 30–50 years to come.

The COVID-19 pandemic and stock market performance of transportation and travel services firms: a cross-country study

This paper examined the firm-specific abnormal returns of transportation and travel services sectors from the USA, UK, France, China, India, Mexico, Turkey, and Thailand in response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) using event study methodology. Our results revealed that investors in developed countries provide significant long term abnormal returns for the first 101 days. Furthermore, no significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) were found in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, travel restrictions, lockdown, stimulus package, and historical decline in oil prices except in the case of the USA. It is concluded that with the gradual increase in new cases and deaths, abnormal returns are also adjusted, making the effects of these events insignificant at the time of their occurrence. Results also showed that firms in developing countries recognized significant negative abnormal returns in response to the second wave of COVID-19. These results are useful for investors in devising investment strategies relevant to contextual settings.

Comovement of Fear Index, Stock Returns, Brent Oil Prices in BRIC Countries: The Case of COVID-19

The study investigates long-run and short-run cointegrating relationship between stock market returns, fear index (VIX), brent crude oil prices and growth in deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic for BRIC countries using daily data from 23 January 2020 to 24 August 2020 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. CUSUM test and serial correlation test estimates point towards the robustness of the model used. The evidence reveals that for India and Brazil, with the outbreak of COVID-19, decrease in crude oil prices and increase in volatility index, the stock returns started declining in the short run, but the impact has declined and the stock returns have regained in the long run. For China, due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and increase in fear index, stock returns declined in the short run, but the Chinese economy has recovered well due to a strong industrial and services sector. For Russia, increase in deaths due to COVID and decline in oil prices has impacted the stock returns in the long- and short run. Due to a decline of 53% for crude oil prices from January 2020 to May 2020, the Russian economy would face the consequences in the long run as well. The results suggest that though BRIC countries were impacted by growth in COVID-19 deaths, but the recovery trajectory and stability has resumed for all countries except Russia. Results of Granger Causality indicate a bidirectional causality between VIX and stock returns for the Indian market.

How Do the Crises of Falling Oil Prices and COVID-19 Affect Economic Sectors in the Rentier Economies? Evidence from the GCC Countries

This study analyses the impacts of unprecedented falling oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 on the stock markets of GCC countries – countries considered as natural resources-based rentier economies. To this end, the research uses daily data for 295 companies under the categories of services, industrial, and financial sectors in GCC countries from January 1, 2020, to February 23, 2021. The analysis was conducted over two phases. The first phase extended from January 1, 2020, to July 30, 2020, while the second phase extended from August 01, 2020, to February 23, 2021. The research utilised 18 random effect models in each phase to capture the impact of the oil price crisis and COVID-19 outbreak on each economic sector in each of the GCC countries. This study’s findings reveal that the decline in oil prices and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic were strong in the first phase, while this impact diminished in most economic sectors in the Gulf countries in the second phase. However, the GCC countries have not been impacted equally by the crisis of falling oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak. The results show that the hardest-hit countries are Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, respectively, while the least impacted countries are Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Furthermore, the sector-wise analysis results reveal that the industrial sector in Saudi Arabia is the sector most affected by the oil price crisis, and the financial sector in Saudi Arabia is the sector most impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak in the GCC countries.

The Impact of Oil Prices on Income in Azerbaijan

Oil prices in the global market have been fluctuating sharply since the end of the XX century. As oil is a predominant component that affects global indicators, it is necessary to assess by economists. Because GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover depend on the effects of oil price shocks. This article researched the impact oil fluctuations on income from a short and long-term perspective. For the purpose of the research, Azerbaijan has been exemplified as an oil-producing country for the period of 2001m01-2021m06. Applying the empirical method, we achieved that world oil shocks affected income (in dollar) significantly in a short perspective. The recent declining oil prices make this topic more valuable to research. Moreover, as many empirical methods show asymmetric dependency, the research focused mainly on negative shocks of oil prices.

Оцінка впливу пандемії на економіку країн світу

The article is aimed at studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of the countries of the world. The main consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the economy are considered. It is noted that the outbreak of the pandemic has become one of the most serious threats to the world economy and financial markets. It is determined that concerns about the impact of the pandemic on the world economy have shaken markets around the world, in particular, stock prices and bond yields have fallen sharply. The main consequences of the pandemic for the world economy are currently the following: the fall in exchange indices; significant decline in oil prices and slowing development of the metals market; reduction of production; significant decrease in revenues of airlines and maritime transport, shopping and entertainment centers, tourism industry; decrease in incomes of the population; growth of profits of the pharmaceutical industry and the global gaming, educational and other online applications industry; increased investor demand for less risky assets. In such a situation the paces of the economic growth of both the majority of countries and the world economy in general at the present time are slowed down. This situation demonstrates the need to make informed decisions by the governments of the world and local authorities, which, in close cooperation with leading experts, the corporate sector and the population, should implement an effective socio-economic policy both in the context of lock-down and in the subsequent months after its completion. The main possible methods of mitigating the effects of the pandemic on the economies of developing countries are considered. Recommendations on possible measures aimed at reducing the impact of the pandemic on the economies of countries in the global dimension are presented. Prospects for further research are to analyze the economic consequences of lock-down, losses of the world economy after overcoming coronavirus disease and real measures that have been taken to stabilize the financial and economic situation at both the micro and macro levels.

Determinants of bank profitability during oil price decline

This study examines the influence of macroeconomic factors, namely Inflation, Gross Domestic Production (G.D.P.) and changes in oil price and Bank-Specific Factors such as capital, asset size, liquidity risk, loan and deposit on bank profitability as measured by return on equity (R.O.E.) and net profit ratio (NPR) during the period of oil price decline, 2013-2017. The top 7 commercial banks were chosen as a sample of the study based on the availability of the data and the possible influence it can contribute to representing Oman's banking industry. The quantitative approach utilized appropriate statistical tools to analyze and interpret the secondary data gathered, including descriptive statistics, panel regression, Pearson correlation, and correlation matrix. Key findings of the study revealed no significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and the return on equity. There is also no significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and the net profit ratio. On the other hand, bank-specific factors significantly correlate return on equity and the net profit ratio. The study's findings contribute to the bank's management, economic policymakers, a research body, and academia in distinguishing the best indicator for a bank's profitability influenced by macroeconomic and bank-specific factors.

The political economy of budget reforms: Evidence of an emerging market

The purpose of the paper was to investigate the socio-economic and political processes that influenced Kuwait’s budget reforms in the wake of declining oil prices. A qualitative study and a literature review were adopted and informed by political economy theory to generate in-depth insights into similar and different socio-economic and political processes that influenced the adoption and implementation of a range of budget reforms in Kuwait. The study revealed that the budget reforms in Kuwait, as part of the austerity measures, were influenced by the dwindling oil revenues; the entrenched welfare system; the power struggles between the state actors; and the strategic partnerships and coercive role of supranational agencies, especially in creating an enabling environment for global capitalism. The paper demonstrates how the socio-economic and political environment influences and is influenced by the strategic accounting choices and practices adopted and implemented. Budget reforms in Kuwait were proposed to address the socio-economic and political realities of the day, but also, the reforms prepared fertile grounds to support global capitalism. The paper contributes to the debate on the political economy and how it is relevant in understanding the socio-economic and political processes involved in the adoption and implementation of accounting changes, especially in developing countries.

Evaluating the Implications of Lineaments on Petroleum Fields: South Sumatra, Indonesia

Declining oil prices has led to a reduction of petroleum exploration as oil production as no longer a lucrative area of investment as in the previous years. Current exploration activities are supported by field work which are intensive considering the resources required. There is need to develop low cost methods to delineate areas of potential hydrocarbon resources. This research uses Land Satellite (Landsat) 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) for alteration extraction, Shutter Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for lineament extraction, Geological maps to develop a low cost method of petroleum exploration. The results indicate high OH bearing alterations on the Gumai and Kasai formation, a seal rock. Extensional tectonics is responsible for the migration of petroleum from the subsurface. It is suggested that future exploration be concentrated on the Gumai and Kasai formation based on evidence of micro seepage.

Economic Security from the perspective of the Copenhagen School: Case Study of Economic Security in the Kurdistan Region – Iraq

In this study, we have tried to highlight the economic security threats of the Kurdistan Region within the framework of the Copenhagen School theory, accordingly, because the Copenhagen school can reveal the hidden threats and dangers within the framework of security issues by presenting five areas and the security sector (political, military, societal, economic and environmental). This research discusses the theory of economic security in the Kurdistan Region, apart from the theory of economic security. Finally, we have come to some conclusions, the most important of which were that all the security sectors have an impact on the security issues in general and the issue of economic security in the Kurdistan Region, and then in recent years, the economic insecurity, the consequences and related issues, particularly the decline in oil prices, budget cuts and salaries by Iraq due to political conflicts. The economy is a single source of oil and Baghdad’s budget, which has faced economic insecurity and has increased the unemployment, poverty and youth migration in the Kurdistan Region, according to which it has put the Kurdistan region's societal insecurity.

Prospects for China’s BRI and Strategic Influence in the Post-COVID-19 Central Asia

COVID-19 brings a momentous decline for global economic activities but its consequences for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains imminent. Despite the economic shocks of the Pandemic, BRI remains a top priority for China which allows Beijing to improve regional connectivity and expand its economic outreach far off to Europe and the American shores. On the other hand, the Central Asian economies are hard hit by the pandemic with a reduced regional trade, decline in oil prices and its commodities, deep slump in remittances, and the slackening manufacturing ability. The revival of BRI and its immediate success is desirable to the COVID-19 hit Central Asian economies. This is because BRI has bound the region together in terms of infrastructural development where China, under the rubric of BRI, is spearheading major developmental projects, pouring investment in energy sector, offering debt, and improving bilateral trade with regional economies. For this reason, the Central Asian countries desire immediate revival of close economic cooperation which could links the economic fortunes of regional countries to Beijing and brings the BRI to the fore in regional priorities. The paper highlight the impact of COVID-19 over Central Asian economies, the significance BRI for the region; its geopolitical importance for China; and the growing Chinese influence in the post-Pandemic Central Asia using Bourdieu’s Theory of Symbolic Power. Finally, using qualitative content analysis, the paper argues that the economic impact of COVID-19 are short-term and of limited nature and it will only increase prospects for BRI in the post-Pandemic Central Asia with vital strategic utilities for China’s geopolitical profile in the region.

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY COORDINATION IN NIGERIA

This paper seeks to examine monetary and fiscal policy coordination in Nigeria. It discussed monetary policy as expansionary or contractionary, showing the various tools of monetary policy instruments in the country. Data are generated from secondary sources and evaluated through content analysis. The study is anchored by the Monetarist theory of inflation. Various literature examined shows that with declining oil prices and production challenges in an oil-dependent economy, achieving the growth projection requires better coordination of fiscal and monetary policies in a way that supports the non-oil sector. The government must develop and strengthen effective monetary and fiscal policy using appropriate instruments and international best practices.

A Marriage of Convenience on the Rocks? Revisiting the Sino–Angolan Relationship

China's relationship with Angola – which is both the region's top oil exporter to China and recipient of the highest amount of Chinese loans – represents a critical case when it comes to studying Sino–African relations. The Sino–Angolan relationship, forged for purely pragmatic reasons at an opportune moment of mutual need in the early 2000s, has been labelled a ‘marriage of convenience’. A variety of factors have, however, altered the environment in which China first made inroads into Angola; most notably a decline in oil prices, and the 2017 political transition. These have provided fresh impetus to the Angolan political economy and relations with China. Based on interviews we show that although oil remains a central ingredient, China's role has substantially evolved. The marriage of convenience is experiencing a period of rocky introspection, one in which the notion of China having sway in Angola can finally be laid to rest.

Developing Algeria’s Tourism Sector: The Search for a Wealth-Generator

Abstract: 
 The tourism sector in Algeria is facing serious challenges and its contribution to the country’s economy is still limited, despite tremendous natural and cultural potentials, as well as an important tourism infrastructure. Indeed, Algeria is still among the bottom rankings of tourist destinations. This paper tries to put forward a number of ways to develop Algeria’s tourism sector. It seeks to make a contribution to the solution of the various problems and challenges facing the tourism industry in Algeria. It highlights the necessity of boosting domestic and foreign investment in this sector to help generate wealth and jobs to alleviate the impact of the on-going drastic decline in oil and gas prices in world markets on the national economy.

The impact of the boom and slump of oil prices on the housing market in Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana's oil city

This paper investigates the impact of the boom and slump of oil prices on Sekondi-Takoradi's housing market. Interviews were carried out with key informants including estate agents, a major property developer, planning officials, officials of oil and gas and oil service companies, officials of recruitment agencies, and owners of eating establishments. Questionnaires and interviews were also used to collect data from oil workers. The findings show that discovery and production of oil during higher oil prices period led to refurbishment and construction of housing to suit the taste of oil workers with increases in rents. For the less well-paid, it caused evictions as property owners looked to upgrade their houses for a higher income group. Recent decline in oil prices and the redundancy of oil workers led to empty property, significant falls in rental values, decreasing estate agency business and profit, and it halted housing and hotel construction. Some eating establishments also experienced reduction in patronage after oil prices fell. This research adds to existing knowledge of effects of the oil industry during the boom in oil prices on Sekondi-Takoradi's housing market, and sheds new light on the impact of the slump in oil prices on housing in the city.

OIL PRICES DROP EFFECT ON CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN KUWAIT

The oil price has fallen significantly from its peak at $128.14 per barrel in March 2012, reaching a low of $29 in February 2016. Kuwait depends mainly on oil revenue to finance infrastructure governmental projects. Oil price decline has a direct impact on economic and capital expenditure in the construction industry’s resources in Kuwait, specifically construction material. This research investigates the effect of changes in oil prices over range from 2007-2017 on the construction industry in Kuwait. Different types of data regarding global economic data, construction materials, and awarded contracts during the study period were gathered and analyzed. A set of statistical and correlation analysis are performed. The study revealed that many construction materials are affected by oil price in Kuwait. The GDP is highly affected by oil price drop; this implies that there is a limited result of government plans to divers governmental finance. A regression model is proposed to forecast the construction cost per square meter in Kuwaiti dinar based on study variables. The study results can be used to evaluate the effect of oil price drop in similar construction environments such as Gulf countries and to predict construction costs changes due to oil price decline.

The impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT This paper examined the impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, over the annual period 1989–2018. We employed various cointegration methods within the framework of the augmented production function and estimated that government current and capital expenditure, in addition to non-oil labour and capital, have statistically significant positive effects on non-oil GDP. We tested whether the recent oil price decline and the implemented economic reforms caused a break in the relationship that non-oil GDP establishes with the mentioned variables and found that there was no break in either the long-run or the short-run relationship. The study concluded with some policy insights that could be useful for fiscal authorities to promote non-oil economic development.

Consumer Search and Price Dispersion: A Comparison of Gas Station Prices Before and After COVID-19

탐색이론모형은 동질적인 재화에 대해 두 개 혹은 그 이상의 가격이 존재하는 가격분산을 소비자의 가격탐색에 따른 편익과 비용으로 설명한다. 우리나라 주유소에서 판매되는 운송용 유류는 품질과 서비스의 높은 동질성에도 불구하고 동일한 지역 내에서 다양한 가격에 판매되고 있다. 본 연구는 코로나19가 보통휘발유와 경유의 가격분산 변화에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 분석하고자 한다. 탐색이론모형에 따르면, 코로나19의 확산으로 감염 위험이 증가하여 운전자의 유류소비가 감소하거나 소비자의 가격탐색에 따른 편익이 감소하여 보통휘발유와 경유 소매가격의 분산이 증가할 것이라고 추론할 수 있다. 2019~2020년 서울특별시와 6대 광역시 주유소의 일별보통휘발유와 경유 가격 자료를 패널 고정효과 모형을 이용해 분석한 결과에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 보통휘발유와 경유 가격의 도시 수준 분산이 약 16.5%와 23.4% 증가하였다. 또한 코로나19 누적 확진자수가 증가할수록 보통휘발유와 경유 가격의 도시 내 격차는 확대되었으며, 이러한 효과는 코로나19 확산 초기 누적 확진자수가 적을수록 크게 나타났다. 한편 다른 조건이 일정할 경우, 유류 가격상승 지속기간이 증가할수록 해당 유류의 가격분산은 감소하였지만 가격하락 지속기간은 가격분산에 유의미한 영향을 주지 않았다.The search-theoretic model attibutes the price dispersion, variation in prices across sellers of the homogeneous goods, to the differences in benefits and costs of consumer search for lower price. Transportation oil at gas stations in Korea is sold at various prices even within the same region despite its homogeneity in quality and services. This study analyzed the effect of Covid-19 on the price dispersion of regular gasoline and diesel. According to the search-theoretic model, the spread of Corona 19 is expected to increase the risk of infection such that reduced transportation oil consumption or lowered benefits of price search will result in an increase in the dispersion of regular gasoline and diesel prices. Using daily regular gasoline and diesel price data at Seoul and six metropolitan cities in Korea between 2019 and 2020. we find that the city-level dispersion of regualar gasoline and diesel prices increased by about 16.5% and 23.4% after the spread of COVID-19. Our results also suggest that, as the cumulative number of confirmed cases of Corona 19 increases, the price dispersion of regular gasoline or diesel widens, and this effect is shown to be stronger at earlier days of COVID-19 era. Finally the price dispersion of transportation oil decreases more as the duration of oil price rise lasts longer, but the duration of oil price decline has no statistically significant effect on oil price dispersion.

Contemporary Foreign Economic Relations of Russia with the Countries of Northern Europe

Recently new problems have arisen that have complicated Russia’s foreign economic relations with foreign countries. The countries of Northern Europe were no exception. The economic situation in many countries was far from optimal. Problems with economy took place in the euro area. A significant drop in oil prices led to a slowdown in economic growth in the Russian Federation and a sharp decline of ruble exchange rate. Since 2014, various Western sanctions have emerged, followed by retaliatory sanctions from Russia. Against this background, the analysis of the dynamics of Russian economic relations with the Nordic countries is of particular interest. A sharp decline in foreign economic indicators occurred in 2015–2016. Subsequent development has shown different dynamics. On the one hand, by the end of the 2010s foreign trade with Finland and Sweden did not reach the level of 2013–2014 (primarily due to the decline in oil prices), but on the other, foreign trade indicators with Denmark and Norway were exceeded (due to Russian exports). Year 2020 brought new problems – the coronavirus pandemic and the associated restrictions on the movement of goods, services and people, as well as the rupture of production chains, which had an impact on foreign economic relations – and exacerbated the old ones: a new sharp drop in oil prices and a new depreciation of ruble. The article reveals the features of the general dynamics and commodity structure of foreign trade with each of the observed countries. The significant dependence of Russian exports, primarily on energy supplies, is considered in detail. Special attention is given to the general dynamics of foreign direct investment in Russia. The problems of modern development of Russian export and import were analyzed.

Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios

AbstractIn a turbulent environment characterized by unexpected events, such as the COVID‐19 pandemic, a sharp oil price decline, and dramatic economic crises, many organizations face not only challenges but also an “identity crisis” as they are unable to respond to the question "who are we as an organization?" Some organizations may concurrently hold multiple identities without being clear on whether these are shared and agreed upon, and on their role in potentially disruptive futures. In response to this challenge and addressing a methodological gap in the broader futures and foresight field, we draw on both futures and foresight as well as management and organization literature to propose a new organizational foresight method: Identity Wind Tunneling (IWT). Designed as an enhancement of wind tunneling approaches, IWT allows an organization to understand, test, and manage multiple organizational identities. Furthermore, IWT facilitates the alignment of organizational identities across a range of possible futures created during a scenario planning process with the ultimate goal of finding a strategic identity. This represents the central, enduring, and distinctive role that the organization embodies while pursuing a long‐term and holistic strategic direction that is robust across all scenarios. The strategic identity either clarifies or reimagines the identity of the organization. The paper provides a step‐by‐step explanation of how to implement IWT and ​presents a case study of its application. The method is also presented with a series of open‐source templates created on the whiteboard collaborative platform Miro (https://miro.com/app/board/o9J_kqakYjs=/).