Decline In Mortality Research Articles

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization

WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. WHO.

Making the health system work for over 25 million births annually: drivers of the notable decline in maternal and newborn mortality in India

IntroductionIndia’s progress in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality since the 1990s was faster than the regional average. We systematically analysed how national health policies, services for maternal and newborn health,...

A tale of two exemplars: the maternal and newborn mortality transitions of two state clusters in India

BackgroundIndia’s progress in reducing maternal and newborn mortality since the 1990s has been exemplary across diverse contexts. This paper examines progress in two state clusters: higher mortality states (HMS) with...

Increased utilisation and quality: a focus on inequality and a learning health system approach—explaining Nepal’s success in reducing maternal and newborn mortality 2000–2020

IntroductionMaternal mortality in Nepal dropped from 553 to 186 per 100 000 live births during 2000–2017 (66% decline). Neonatal mortality dropped from 40 to 21 per 1000 live births during...

Initial Experiences of Laparoscopic Nephrectomy in a Tertiary Oncology Center: An Analysis of 142 Cases.

Kidney tumors have an important place among urological malignancies. The increased utilization of imaging methods has led to a rise in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) diagnoses, albeit with declining mortality rates, particularly in developed countries. Radical nephrectomy remains the gold standard treatment. The aim of this study was to share a tertiary oncology hospital's initial experiences with laparoscopic nephrectomy. This retrospective study analyzes data from patients who underwent laparoscopic nephrectomy, focusing on demographic characteristics, tumor features, and operative outcomes. Information regarding age, gender, tumor size, operative details, and pathology results was collected and analyzed. One hundred forty-two patients were included in the study; 69 (48.60%) were female and 73 (51.40%) were male. The mean age of the patients was 57.11 ± 12.6 years, with tumors primarily located on the left kidney (52.80%). The mean tumor size was 53.01 ± 24.01 mm. Intraoperative complications included the need for conversion to open surgery in five cases and vascular, pneumothorax, or duodenal injuries in a subset of patients. However, postoperative complications, such as sepsis or mortality, were not observed. Despite an initial learning curve associated with longer operation times, laparoscopic techniques offer benefits, including reduced blood loss, faster recovery, and improved cosmetic outcomes. Histologically, clear cell RCC was the most common tumor type encountered. This study underscores the safety and efficacy of laparoscopic radical nephrectomy, advocating for its widespread adoption while emphasizing the importance of surgeon experience and patient selection in optimizing outcomes.

Unveiling the health consequences of air pollution in the world’s most polluted nations

Air pollution poses a persuasive threat to global health, demonstrating widespread detrimental effects on populations worldwide. Exposure to pollutants, notably particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm (PM2.5), has been unequivocally linked to a spectrum of adverse health outcomes. A nuanced understanding of the relationship between them is crucial for implementing effective policies. This study employs a comprehensive investigation, utilizing the extended health production function framework alongside the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) technique, to scrutinize the interplay between air pollution and health outcomes. Focusing on a panel of the top twenty polluted nations from 2000 to 2021, the findings yield substantial insights. Notably, PM2.5 concentration emerges as a significant factor, correlating with a reduction in life expectancy by 3.69 years and an increase in infant mortality rates by 0.294%. Urbanization is found to increase life expectancy by 0.083 years while concurrently decreasing infant mortality rates by 0.00022%. An increase in real per capita gross domestic product corresponds with an improvement in life expectancy by 0.21 years and a decrease in infant mortality rates by 0.00065%. Similarly, an elevated school enrollment rate is associated with a rise in life expectancy by 0.17 years and a decline in infant mortality rates by 0.00032%. However, a higher population growth rate is found to modestly decrease life expectancy by 0.019 years and slightly elevate infant mortality rates by 0.000016%. The analysis reveals that per capita greenhouse gas emissions exert a negative impact, diminishing life expectancy by 0.486 years and elevating infant mortality rates by 0.00061%, while per capita energy consumption marginally reduces life expectancy by 0.026 years and increases infant mortality rates by 0.00004%. Additionally, economic volatility shock presents a notable decrement in life expectancy by 0.041 years and an increase in infant mortality rates by 0.000045%, with inflationary shock further exacerbating adverse health outcomes by lowering life expectancy by 0.70 years and elevating infant mortality rates by 0.00025%. Moreover, the study scrutinizes the role of institutional quality, revealing a constructive impact on health outcomes. Specifically, the institutional quality index is associated with an increase in life expectancy by 0.66% and a decrease in infant mortality rates by 0.0006%. Extending the analysis to examine the nuanced dimensions of institutional quality, the findings discern that economic institutions wield a notably stronger positive influence on health outcomes compared to political and institutional governance indices. Finally, the results underscore the pivotal moderating role of institutional quality in mitigating the deleterious impact of PM2.5 concentration on health outcomes, counterbalancing the influence of external shocks, and improving the relationships between explanatory variables and health outcome indicators. These findings offer critical insights for guiding evidence-based policy implications, with a focus on fostering resilient, sustainable, and health-conscious societies.

Trends in mortality in people with HIV from 1999 to 2020: a multi-cohort collaboration.

Mortality among people with HIV declined with the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy. We investigated trends over time in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with HIV from 1999-2020. Data were collected from the D:A:D cohort from 1999 through January 2015 and RESPOND from October 2017 through 2020. Age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, classified using Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe), were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess mortality trends over time. Among 55716 participants followed for a median of 6 years (IQR 3-11), 5263 participants died (crude mortality rate [MR] 13.7/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 13.4-14.1). Changing patterns of mortality were observed with AIDS as the most common cause of death between 1999- 2009 (n = 952, MR 4.2/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 4.0-4.5) and non-AIDS defining malignancy (NADM) from 2010 -2020 (n = 444, MR 2.8/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 2.5-3.1). In multivariable analysis, all-cause mortality declined over time (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 0.97 per year; 95%CI 0.96, 0.98), mostly from 1999 through 2010 (aMRR 0.96 per year; 95%CI 0.95-0.97), and with no decline shown from 2011 through 2020 (aMRR 1·00 per year; 95%CI 0·96-1·05). Mortality due all known causes except NADM also declined over the entire follow-up period. Mortality among people with HIV in the D:A:D and/or RESPOND cohorts decreased between 1999 and 2009 and was stable over the period from 2010 through 2020. The decline in mortality rates was not fully explained by improvements in immunologic-virologic status or other risk factors.

Reversals in the Decline of Heart Failure Mortality in the US, 1999 to 2021

This cohort study evaluates recent reversals in declines in cardiovascular mortality and whether they vary across sociodemographic categories.

Life Expectancy Reversals in Low‐Mortality Populations

AbstractBehind the steady march of progress toward longer life expectancy in many low‐mortality countries, there have been setbacks even before the Covid‐19 pandemic. In this paper, we use an exploratory approach to describe the temporal structure, age patterns, and geographic aspects of life expectancy reversals. We find that drops in life expectancy are often followed by larger than average improvements, which tells us that most reversals are transitory with little long‐term influence. The age structure of mortality decline when life expectancy falls is tilted toward older ages, a pattern that is quite different from the general pattern of mortality improvement. Geographic analysis shows that mortality reversals are correlated across neighboring countries like Italy and France, or Canada and the United States. These findings are consistent with contagious disease and weather being important causes of life expectancy reversals. We conclude with a discussion of implications for formal modeling and forecasting of mortality to accommodate these patterns that violate some standard assumptions.

Trends and disparities in colorectal cancer hospitalizations and outcomes: a 10-year joinpoint trend study

Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) poses a significant burden on healthcare systems globally. Sociodemographic factors intricately influence CRC epidemiology, yet their impact on inpatient care remains underexplored. This study aimed to assess trends in CRC hospitalization and the effect of sociodemographic factors on outcomes of CRC patients. Methods A retrospective longitudinal analysis was conducted using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample. Trends in CRC admissions were assessed, stratified by sociodemographic variables. Disparities in hospital-associated outcomes were examined. Statistical methods included multivariable regression and joinpoint regression analysis. Results The prevalence of CRC hospitalizations uptrended from 760 per 100,000 hospitalizations in 2010 to 841 per 100,000 hospitalizations in 2019 (P trend < 0.001). The mean age decreased from 67 to 66 years (P < 0.001). Male gender and White race were predominant across the study period. Inpatient mortality decreased from 4.5% in 2010 to 4.16% in 2019 (P trend = 0.033). On sex subgroup analysis, men had a significantly higher mortality rate (P = 0.034). Racially, Blacks had the highest mortality rate (P = 0.550) and only Whites showed a significant decline in mortality over the study period (P = 0.003). Hospitalization length decreased while total hospital charges increased. Conclusion Our study highlights sociodemographic disparities in CRC outcomes, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address inequity in screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Continued research is needed to inform effective healthcare practices in mitigating these disparities and improving survival outcomes.

Trends of Acute Myocardial Infarction Mortality in People Over 65 Years Old in the United States From 1999-2020: Insight From the CDC-WONDER Database.

Background Over the past two decades, there have been numerous advances in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care. We assessed the impact of these advances on the trend of AMI-related mortality. Methods This retrospective analysis of the Centers for Disease Control's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC_WONDER) database focused on AMI-related mortality in individuals aged 65 and older in the United States from 1999 to 2020. Trends -n crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were assessed based on socio-demographic and regional variables using Joinpoint Regression software (Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 5.0.2 - May 2023; Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch, Surveillance Research Program,National Cancer Institute Bethesda, Maryland). Annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the AAMRs were calculated for the line segments linking a Joinpoint using a data-driven weighted Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) model. Results There were 2,354,971 AMI-related deaths with an overall decline in the AAMR from 474.6 in 1999 to 153.2 in 2020 and an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -5.3 (95% CI -5.4 to -5.2). Notable declines were observed across gender, race, age groups, and urbanization levels. However, the rate of AMI-related deaths at decedents' homes slowed down between 2008 and 2020 and climbed up between 2018 and 2020. In addition to this, nonmetropolitan areas were found to have a significantly lower decline in mortality when compared to large and medium/small metropolitan areas. Conclusion While there is an overall positive trend in reducing AMI-associated mortality, disparities persist, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions.

Mortality trend of ischemic heart disease (2008–2022): A retrospective analysis of epidemiological data

BackgroundAge-sex specific trend analyses of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and prevalent risk factors can improve our understanding and approach to the disease. MethodsWe performed a 15-year retrospective epidemiological analysis of acute and chronic IHD-related mortality and prevalent cardiovascular risk factors using administrative data from Veneto, a socio-economically homogeneous Italian region. Standard mortality statistics using the underlying cause of death (UCOD) and deaths with any mention of IHD in death certificates (MCOD) from ICD-10 codes I20-I25 was performed between 2008 and 2022. ResultsA total of 134,327 death certificates reported IHD-related deaths, representing 18.6% of all deaths. Proportional mortality decreased from 14.6% in 2008 to 7.8% in 2022 for deaths with IHD as the UCOD and from 23.5% to 14.6% for deaths with IHD among the MCOD. A more pronounced decline of proportionate and case-specific mortality rate was seen in women. The decline in mortality over the whole study period was larger for acute (vs. chronic) IHD. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a marked increase in mortality in 2020 (+12.2%) with a subsequent further decline. IHD-related deaths displayed a typical seasonal pattern with more deaths during winter. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was higher in IHD (vs. no IHD) deaths: this association appeared more pronounced in younger adults. ConclusionsWe provided an analysis of epidemiological trends in IHD-related mortality and prevalence of risk factors. Our findings indicate a change in the pattern of cardiovascular deaths and may suggest a switch in death from acute to chronic conditions.

Pericardial Diseases Mortality Trends in Brazil From 2000 to 2022.

Background Pericardial diseases manifest in various clinical forms, including acute pericarditis, constrictive pericarditis, pericardial effusion, and cardiac tamponade, with acute pericarditis being the most prevalent. These conditions significantly contribute to mortality rates. Therefore, this article aimed to analyze mortality trends in the Brazilian population based on age and sex, shedding light on the impact of pericardial diseases on public health outcomes. Methods This is a retrospective time-series analysis of pericardial disease mortality rates in Brazil (2000-2022). Data was obtained from the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System (DATASUS), and the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes: I30, I31, and I32 were included for analysis. We gathered population and demographic data categorized by age range and sex from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Subsequently, we computed the age-standardized mortality rate per 100,000 individuals and assessed the annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) using joinpoint regression, along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results In terms of mortality trends based on sex, overall mortality rates remained stable for males and combined sexes over the study period. However, there was a notable increase in mortality rates among females (AAPC=1.18), particularly between 2020 and 2022, with a significant APC of 27.55. Analyzing pericardial diseases across different age groups (20 to 80 years and above), it wasobserved that mortality rates significantly increased in the 70-79 and 80 years and above age groups throughout the study period (AAPC=1.0339 and AAPC=3.4587, respectively). These two age groups experienced the highest significant rise in mortality between 2020 and 2022. Other age groups did not exhibit a significant change in AAPC. Conclusions This comprehensive analysis spanning two decades (2000-2022), examined the mortality trends of pericardial diseases in Brazil and revealed relative stability overall. Males exhibited an overall higher mortality number due to pericardial diseases; however, females showed the most significant increase in mortality trend throughout the whole period. In the first segment (2000-2015), mortality rose across all cohorts, which was attributed to substandard healthcare facilities and infectious diseases like tuberculosis. The second segment (2016-2020) saw a decline in mortality, likely due to improved healthcare, particularly the increased availability of echocardiograms. However, the third segment (2020-2022) witnessed a sharp rise in mortality, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, with post-COVID-19 symptoms, particularly pericarditis. Pericarditis-related death rates declined compared to pericardial effusion, and mortality rates correlated directly with age, with older cohorts experiencing higher mortality due to increased comorbidities, and decline in health and immunocompetency.

Prognostic value of cognitive impairment, assessed by the Clock Drawing Test, in emergency department patients presenting with non-specific complaints

BackgroundCognitive impairment (CI) is common among older patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). The failure to recognize CI at ED presentation constitutes a high risk of additional morbidity, mortality, and functional decline. The Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is a well-established cognitive screening test. AimIn patients presenting to the ED with non-specific complaints (NSCs), we aimed to investigate the usability of the CDT and its prognostic value regarding length of hospital stay (LOS) and mortality. MethodSecondary analysis of the Basel Non-specific Complaints (BANC) trial, a prospective delayed type cross-sectional study with a 30-day follow-up. In three EDs, patients presenting with NSCs were enrolled. The CDT was administered at enrollment. ResultsIn the 1,278 patients enrolled, median age was 81 [74, 87] years and 782 were female (61.19%). A valid CDT was obtained in 737 (57.7%) patients. In patients without a valid CDT median LOS was higher (29 [9, 49] days vs. 22 [9, 45] days), and 30-day mortality was significantly higher than in patients with a valid CDT (n = 45 (8.32%) vs. n = 39 (5.29%)). Of all valid CDTs, 154 clocks (20.9%) were classified as normal, 55 (7.5%) as mildly deficient, 297 (40.3%) as moderately deficient, and 231 (31.3%) as severely deficient. Mortality and LOS increased along with the CDT deficits (p = 0.012 for 30-day mortality; p < 0.001 for LOS). ConclusionThe early identification of patients with CI may lead to improved patient management and resource allocation. The CDT could be used as a risk stratification tool for older ED patients presenting with NSCs, as it is a predictor for 30-day mortality and LOS.

Discovering Subgroups of Children With High Mortality in Urban Guinea-Bissau: Exploratory and Validation Cohort Study.

The decline in global child mortality is an important public health achievement, yet child mortality remains disproportionally high in many low-income countries like Guinea-Bissau. The persisting high mortality rates necessitate targeted research to identify vulnerable subgroups of children and formulate effective interventions. This study aimed to discover subgroups of children at an elevated risk of mortality in the urban setting of Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, West Africa. By identifying these groups, we intend to provide a foundation for developing targeted health interventions and inform public health policy. We used data from the health and demographic surveillance site, Bandim Health Project, covering 2003 to 2019. We identified baseline variables recorded before children reached the age of 6 weeks. The focus was on determining factors consistently linked with increased mortality up to the age of 3 years. Our multifaceted methodological approach incorporated spatial analysis for visualizing geographical variations in mortality risk, causally adjusted regression analysis to single out specific risk factors, and machine learning techniques for identifying clusters of multifactorial risk factors. To ensure robustness and validity, we divided the data set temporally, assessing the persistence of identified subgroups over different periods. The reassessment of mortality risk used the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) method to achieve more robust causal modeling. We analyzed data from 21,005 children. The mortality risk (6 weeks to 3 years of age) was 5.2% (95% CI 4.8%-5.6%) for children born between 2003 and 2011, and 2.9% (95% CI 2.5%-3.3%) for children born between 2012 and 2016. Our findings revealed 3 distinct high-risk subgroups with notably higher mortality rates, children residing in a specific urban area (adjusted mortality risk difference of 3.4%, 95% CI 0.3%-6.5%), children born to mothers with no prenatal consultations (adjusted mortality risk difference of 5.8%, 95% CI 2.6%-8.9%), and children from polygamous families born during the dry season (adjusted mortality risk difference of 1.7%, 95% CI 0.4%-2.9%). These subgroups, though small, showed a consistent pattern of higher mortality risk over time. Common social and economic factors were linked to a larger share of the total child deaths. The study's results underscore the need for targeted interventions to address the specific risks faced by these identified high-risk subgroups. These interventions should be designed to work to complement broader public health strategies, creating a comprehensive approach to reducing child mortality. We suggest future research that focuses on developing, testing, and comparing targeted intervention strategies unraveling the proposed hypotheses found in this study. The ultimate aim is to optimize health outcomes for all children in high-mortality settings, leveraging a strategic mix of targeted and general health interventions to address the varied needs of different child subgroups.

Incidence of liver cancer in young adults according to the Global Burden of Disease database 2019.

The worldwide burden of cancer is increasing in younger populations. However, the epidemiology of primary liver cancer remains understudied in young adults compared to other cancer forms. This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease study between 2010 and 2019 to assess the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years associated with primary liver cancer in the young (15-49y), stratified by region, nation, sociodemographic index, and sex. The study found a global estimate of 78,299 primary liver cancer cases, 60,602 deaths, and 2.90 million disability-adjusted life years in the young population. The Western Pacific region exhibited the highest burden in 2019, showing the most significant increase compared to other regions between 2010 and 2019. More than half of the countries worldwide have undergone an increase in primary liver cancer incidence rates in young adults. Around 12.51% of deaths due to primary liver cancer occur in young individuals. Throughout the study period, there was a significant decline in primary liver cancer mortality due to most etiologies, except for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease-attributable primary liver cancer (annual percentage change + 0.87%, 95% CI: 0.70%-1.05%) and alcohol-attributable primary liver cancer (annual percentage change + 0.21%, 95% CI: 0.01%-0.42%). The limitations of the Global Burden of Disease database include reliance on the quality of primary data and possible underestimation of alcohol consumption. Over the past decade, there has been a marked increase in the burden of primary liver cancer, especially that originating from steatotic liver disease. This trend calls for the development of urgent and comprehensive strategies to mitigate this rising burden globally.

Clinical Profile and Outcome of Neonates Admitted in Intensive Care Unit: A Cross Sectional Study in District Hospital

Neonatal period, which is the first 28 days of an infant’s life, is the most crucial and vulnerable period. A remarkable decline in mortality rates during neonatal period for the past two decades is due to the advances of obstetric practice in term of medical screening and surveillance and increased neonatal specialization. However, respiratory tract disorders, along with sepsis and other types of infection, are the major causes of neonatal morbidities and mortalities. Hence, this study is aimed to bridge these gaps and provide inputs to the program implementers to design necessary interventions that could contribute to the reduction of neonatal morbidity and mortality.Aims: To determine the clinical profile and neonatal outcome admitted to NICU in district hospitalObjectives: 1. To determine the socio demographic factors associated with neonatal outcome 2. To determine the obstetric profile associated with neonatal outcome.Methods: This hospital based retrospective study was conducted in the NICU of Tumakuru district hospital from Jan to March 2023. Records of all the admitted neonates were reviewed. The details were collected based on a structured questionnaire prepared in English. This contained information regarding obstetric and antenatal care (ANC), gestational age at birth, birth weight, sex, APGAR score, age at admission, admission diagnosis, neonatal outcomes and other related details. The data collected was entered in Microsoft excel (MS Excel) and quantitative variables was analysed by mean and qualitative variable by proportion by epi in go 3.4.3. Chi square was used to find out the association between the neonatal outcome and other variables. P value &lt;0.05 was considered significant.&#x0D; Results: A total of 120 neonates were admitted during the study period. 47 (39.1%) mothers of the neonates were aged 21-25years and followed by 34 (28.3%) mothers in the age of 26-30 years. Association between neonatal outcome and socio demographic components was not statistically significant but definitely outcome was better with the good socio demographic profile. Regarding ANC follow up, 119 (99.1%) mothers had attended at leastone prenatal visit and majority 100 (80%) were having ANC check-up at government hospital. The most commoncauses of neonatal mortality were respiratory distress syndrome 4(3.33%), followed by low birth weight 4(3.33%), and preterm 3(2.5%).Conclusion: Inspite of improved technology and facilities available still the neonatal outcome is worst. These all are preventable causes of neonatal mortality and morbidities which has to be taken care bygiving due importance to its predictors. Maternal and environmental factors has to be taken care and dealt.

Genetic, lifestyle and metabolic factors contributing to cardiovascular disease in the Italian population: a literature review.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) represent a major health problem worldwide. In Italy, despite the decline in CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years recently observed, CVD remains the leading cause of death. The development of CVD has a complex and multifactorial etiology that involves environmental, lifestyle/behavioral (e.g., unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol abuse), metabolic, and genetic factors. Although a large number of CVD susceptibility genetic variants have been identified, some seem to confer risk according to the genetic background or ethnicity of the population. Some CVD-associated polymorphisms with appreciable frequency in the Italian population may be important contributors to the development and progression of the most prevalent CVD in the population. This literature review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology of CVD in Italy, as well as to highlight the main genetic, lifestyle/behavioral, and metabolic factors contributing to CVD risk in this population.

Modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi using 2015/16 Demographic and Health Survey: a survival analysis

BackgroundMalawi has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in Sub Sahara Africa. Understanding the factors that contribute to child mortality in Malawi is crucial for the development and implementation of effective interventions to reduce child mortality. The aim of this study is to use survival analysis in modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi. In turn, identify potential risk factors for child mortality and inform the development of interventions to reduce child mortality in the country.MethodThis study used data from all births that occurred in the five years leading up to the 2015/16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The Frailty hazard model was applied to predict infant survival in Malawi. In this analysis, the outcome of interest was death and it had two possible outcomes: "dead" or "alive". Age at death was regarded as the survival time variable. Infants who were still alive at the time of the study as of the day of the interview were considered as censored observations in the analysis.ResultsA total of 17,286 live births born during the 5 years preceding the survey were analysed. The study found that the risk of death was higher among children born to mothers aged 30–39 and 40 or older compared to teen mothers. Infants whose mothers attended fewer than four antenatal care visits were also found to be at a higher risk of death. On the other hand, the study found that using mosquito nets and early breastfeeding were associated with a lower risk of death, as were being male and coming from a wealthier household.ConclusionThe study reveals a notable decline in infant mortality rates as under-five children age, underscoring the challenge of ensuring newborn survival. Factors such as maternal age, birth order, socioeconomic status, mosquito net usage, early breastfeeding initiation, geographic location, and child's sex are key predictors of under-five mortality. To address this, public health strategies should prioritize interventions targeting these predictors to reduce under-five mortality rates.

Trends and population attributable risk estimates for individual and community-level factors of neonatal mortality in Pakistan (1990–2018)

PurposePakistan ranks third globally in terms of newborn deaths occuring within the first 24 hours of life. With a neonatal mortality rate of 42.0%, it carries the highest burden compared to neighboring countries such as Bangladesh (17%), India (22.7%) and Afghanistan (37%). While there has been a decline in neonatal mortality rates in Pakistan, the pace of this decline is slower than that of other countries in the region. Hence, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive examination of the risk factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Pakistan over an extended period. This study aims to analyze the trends and determinants of neonatal mortality in Pakistan over three decades, providing valuable insights into this persistent issue.Design/methodology/approachThe study focused on neonatal mortality as the response variable, which is defined as the death of a live-born child within 28 days of birth. Neonates who passed away during this period were categorized as “cases,” while those who survived beyond a specific timeframe were referred to as “noncases.” To conduct a pooled analysis of neonatal mortality, birth records of 39,976 children born in the five years preceding the survey were extracted from four waves (1990–2018) of the Pakistan Demographic and Household Survey. The relationship between risk factors and the response variable was examined using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model. Neonatal mortality rates were calculated through the direct method using the “syncmrates” package in Stata 15.FindingsDuring the extended period in Pakistan, several critical protective factors against neonatal mortality were identified, including a large family size, improved toilet facilities, middle-aged and educated mothers, female children, singleton live births, large size at birth and longer birth intervals. These factors were found to reduce the risk of neonatal mortality significantly.Originality/valueThis study makes the first attempt to analyze the trends and patterns of potential risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in Pakistan. By examining a large dataset spanning several years, the study provides valuable insights into the factors influencing neonatal mortality.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0604