Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic progressive lung disease with a poor prognosis. Antifibrotics slow the decline of pulmonary function after 12-months, but limited studies have examined the role of circulatory biomarkers in antifibrotic treated IPF patients. Serum from 98 IPF participants, from the Australian Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Registry were collected at four time-points over 1 year post-antifibrotic treatment and analysed as two separate cohorts. Patients were stratified as progressive, if they experienced ≥ 10% decline in FVC or ≥ 15% decline in DLCO or were deceased within 1 year of treatment initiation: or otherwise as stable. Ten molecules of interest were measured by ELISAs in patient serum. Baseline MMP7 levels were higher in progressive than stable patients in Cohort 1 (p = 0.02) and Cohort 2 (p = 0.0002). Baseline MMP7 levels also best differentiated progressive from stable patients (Cohort 1, AUC = 0.74, p = 0.02; Cohort 2, AUC = 0.81, p = 0.0003). Regression analysis of the combined cohort showed that elevated MMP7 levels predicted 12-month progression (OR = 1.530, p = 0.010) and increased risk of overall mortality (HR = 1.268, p = 0.002). LASSO regression identified a multi-biomarker panel (MMP7, ICAM-1, CHI3L1, CA125) that differentiated progression more accurately than MMP7 alone. Furthermore, GAP combined with MMP7, ICAM-1, CCL18 and SP-D was more predictive of 3-year mortality than GAP alone. MMP7 along with a multi-biomarker and GAP panel can predict IPF progression and mortality, with the potential for optimising management.
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